02Dec2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: NASDAQ and S&P 500 Close At Record Highs. The DOW Slips.

December 2, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 129 points or 0.29%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 186 points or 0.97%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 15 points or 0.24%,
  • Gold $2,661 down $20.30 or 0.76%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $0.07 or 0.1%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.192 down 0.002 points or 0.048%,
  • USD index $106.38 up $0.64 or 0.60%,
  • Bitcoin $95,563 down $1,727 or 1.78%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The Nasdaq and S&P 500 closed at record highs on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped from its recent peak. Tech stocks led the gains, with Apple reaching new highs and Tesla shares rising over 3%. Investors are anticipating the November jobs report on Friday, which could influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate cuts. Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller indicated he’s leaning towards supporting another rate cut at the December FOMC meeting, barring any upside surprises in inflation data. The S&P 500 and Dow are entering December on a strong note, having ended November with their best monthly gains in a year. Year-to-date, the S&P 500 is up over 25%, while the Dow has gained nearly 20%. In individual stocks, Stellantis shares fell after CEO Carlos Tavares suddenly resigned and Intel stock pared earlier gains following the announcement of CEO Pat Gelsinger’s retirement. The dollar strengthened as investors assessed President-elect Trump’s latest tariff threat against BRICS countries. Trump warned of 100% tariffs if these nations move away from the US dollar, raising concerns about potential trade conflicts.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during October 2024 was 5.0% above October 2023 – down from 5.3% the previous month. Spending on private construction increased from 4.5% to 5.1% year-over-year. Public construction spending declined significantly from 8.0% year-over-year to 4.5%. Although construction remains a bright spot in today’s economy, it is slowly losing its shine.

The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.4% in November 2024, 1.9 percentage points higher compared to the 46.5 percent recorded in October. The New Orders Index returned to expansion, albeit weakly, after seven months of contraction, registering 50.4 percent, 3.3 percentage points higher than the 47.1 percent recorded in October. For the last two years, manufacturing has been in a recession in the U.S.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Panama Delists 6 Flagged Ships over UK Russia Sanctions
  • Trump’s Tariff Threats Trigger Surge in Chinese Exports
  • U.S.-Based Semiconductor Company Tied to Russian Military Supply Chain
  • This Forgotten Metal Could be The No.1 Commodity Play of 2025
  • U.S. Enters Winter with Highest Natural Gas Stocks in Eight Years
  • Is Trump Going To Turn The Screw On Iran’s Key Criminal Accomplice Iraq?
  • Traders Become More Bullish on European Diesel as Winter Arrives
  • Gazprom Hits Maximum Capacity of Pipeline Gas Flows to China
  • Europe’s Gas Storage Plummets at Fastest Pace in 8 Years
  • Europe’s Gas Storage Plummets at Fastest Pace in 8 Years
  • Norway Pauses Deep Sea Mining Plans
  • Fed Governor Waller says he is ‘leaning toward’ a December rate cut, but worries about inflation
  • Trump Warns Hamas Of “Hell To Pay” If Hostages Aren’t Freed Before Inauguration
  • US Bitcoin Reserve Is Possible, But Not Without Downsides

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates their Mid-Month Forecast for December 2024 on November 30, 2024 – Major Changes. – Posted on December 2, 2024

December 2, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is December of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight. In this article, I refer to December 2024 as “The New Month”.

There have been significant changes in the Outlook for the new month and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for the new month for comparison. It is easy to see the substantial changes in the weather outlook by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps. My comments are in a box.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for the new month. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued three-month Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the new month’s Drought Outlook. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World. The Tropical Outlet includes both direct and indirect potential impacts to the Southern Tier of CONUS. We also include a whole set of forecasts for parts of the new month. These are both useful and provide a crosscheck on the validity of the new month’s Outlook. The whole should be equal to the sum of its parts.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for the new month is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for the new month and the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for the new month. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for the new month and the previously issued three-month outlook for the three-month period that includes the new month. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for December 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for November

It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

It is a substantial change from what was issued on November 21, 2024. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for December which is the new month.  One expects some changes  10 days later. However, the changes to the updated new month Outlook are very significant.  This then gives us some reason to question the (November 21, 2024) three-month NDJ temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.

NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for the New Month and the Three-Month Outlook.

The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.

To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that January and February will be very different than December. You can subtract December from the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined January/February Outlook.

However given the major change in the new Outlook outlook from what was issued on November 21,  2024, we might not trust the three-month Outlook issued on November 21, 2024. Something to think about. But the major factor is the projected slower onset of La Nina. Thus this change may be consistent with the pattern the NOAA has been predicting although they have been playing catch-up.

I am still not convinced that there will be a La Nina Winter. Thus I am somewhat skeptical about the NOAA Outlooks.

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 2, 2024

December 2, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Dec 02 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 02 2024 – 12Z Wed Dec 04 2024

…Heavy lake-effect snow continues downwind from Lake Erie through
Wednesday…

…Light snow over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley, Southern Ohio
Valley, and Southern Appalachians on Monday; moderate to heavy snow over
parts of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan on Tuesday evening into
Wednesday…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern/Central Plains to the Ohio Valley and the Mid-Atlantic…

High pressure over Central Canada/Northern Plains will settle
southeastward to the Southeast by Wednesday. The high pressure will also
usher cold air over parts of the Northern/Central Plains to the Ohio
Valley and the Mid-Atlantic, bringing temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees
below average. Additionally, Freeze Warnings will be over parts of the
Southeast.

The upper-level troughing will continue over parts of the Lower Great
Lakes and Northeast through Tuesday afternoon. The continued cold air
streaming over the Great Lakes will produce light to moderate lake-effect
snow over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and the west coast of the Lower
Peninsula of Michigan through Monday. Moreover, heavy lake-effect snow
will continue downwind from Lake Erie through Wednesday. Light to moderate
lake-effect snow will continue downwind of Lake Ontario into Wednesday.

Moreover, a wave of low pressure will create light snow over parts of the
Middle Mississippi Valley, Southern Ohio Valley, and Southern Appalachians
on Monday. On Tuesday evening, an approaching area of low pressure over
Central Canada will create moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan into Wednesday.

Meanwhile, weak return flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create scattered
showers and thunderstorms over parts of the West Gulf Coast through
Wednesday. Elsewhere, upper-level ridging will create stagnant air
conditions over parts of the Pacific Northwest, leading to areas of dense
fog and poor air quality. Furthermore, there is a High Wind Watch over
parts of the Northern Rockies from Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 1, 2024

December 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Dec 01 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 01 2024 – 12Z Tue Dec 03 2024

…Heavy lake-effect snow starts to wind down over the Upper Great Lakes
later on Sunday…

…Heavy lake-effect snow continues downwind from Lake Erie through
Tuesday…

…Light to moderate snow over parts of the Northern Plains and
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Appalachians on Sunday; on
Monday, light to moderate snow over parts of the Southern Ohio Valley…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Plains to the Ohio Valley and the eastern third of the country...

High pressure over Central Canada will settle southeastward to the Middle
Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. The high pressure will also usher cold air
over parts of the Northern Plains to the Ohio Valley and across the
eastern third of the country, bringing temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees
below average. Freeze Warning will be over the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast
States.

The upper-level troughing over the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes into
the Northeast will weaken Monday into Tuesday. The cold air streaming over
the Great Lakes will produce heavy lake-effect snow over the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan through Monday morning. Lighter snowfall will
develop over most of the west coast of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
However, heavy lake-effect snow will develop over the parts of the
northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan near the Traverse City to Gaylord
regions and will start to taper off on Monday into Tuesday. Moreover,
heavy lake-effect snow will continue downwind from Lakes Erie through
Tuesday. The heavy lake-effect snow will continue downwind of Lakes
Ontario on Sunday and taper off on Monday into Tuesday.

Moreover, upper-level energy will produce light to moderate snow over
parts of the Northern Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on
Sunday. Furthermore, a wave of low pressure will create light to moderate
snow over parts of the Central Appalachians on Sunday. On Monday, a second
wave of low pressure will create light snow over parts of the Southern
Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A third wave of low pressure over
West-Central Canada will initiate light snow over parts of the Upper
Midwest by Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, weak return flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create light rain
over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Sunday and scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Elsewhere, upper-level ridging over parts of the
West Coast will create stagnant air conditions over the valley locations
from interior California into the Pacific Northwest, leading to areas of
dense fog and poor air quality.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

The EIA Monthly Energy Review – Published November 30, 2024

November 30, 2024Posted ineconomyNo Comments

The EIA Monthly  Energy Review is long and does not change much from month to month since a lot of the information is historical.  Some running for political office might have benefited by studying the data. Here I present the graphics from just the first three chapters. It is enough to see that coal is being phased out, electricity is increasingly important and our incorporation of alternative sources of energy is slow.  I  may provide more information in a future article but this should be enough for people to decide if they want more detail on the rest of the report.

At the end of the article, I provided a link to the full Monthly Review. The EIA Monthly Energy Review is separate from its annual reporting on crude oil and natural gas reserves. My prior article on their estimates of reserves can be accessed HERE.  I think that reserves are only updated once a year.

 The numbers here might look funny until you realize that in their summary they are only reporting on petroleum consumption. I have no idea why they did this.

This is a good graphic as it shows the source of energy and where it is used and what the losses are in the transmission of electricity. It is showing the situation for the full year of 2023. Notice that in this graphic Transportation and Industrial are about equal in terms of usage.

The main takeaway here is the small role of renewables.  Also, the increasing role of natural gas is important.

This is from the 2023 EIA Annual Energy Outlook. I did not have enough time to really review this but it seems inconsistent with the data in the Monthly Report.  It is important to remember that the information in the November Monthly Report may only be current as of August as it takes the EIA a lot of time to collect and validate information. That information indicated that transportation far exceeded the industrial sector and the commercial sector used very little energy. So I will try to sort that out. For sure there is a seasonal impact with respect to transportation. It is always difficult for me to work with EIA data.
–

Some will need to click on “Read More”  to access the rest of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 30, 2024

November 30, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 30 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 30 2024 – 12Z Mon Dec 02 2024

…Heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes through Monday…

…Light to moderate snow from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the
Central Appalachians on Saturday…

…Light to moderate snow over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley and Central Appalachians on Sunday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Plains and temperatures will be about 10 degrees below average
over parts of the eastern third of the country…

High pressure extending from Central Canada to the Tennessee Valley will
usher cold air over parts of the Northern Plains, bringing temperatures of
10 to 20 degrees below average. The cold air prompted Cold Weather
Advisories to be over parts of North Dakota on Saturday morning. The
Central Canada high will move south into the Northern Plains by Monday. As
the high pressure expands eastward, cold air will move over most of the
eastern third of the country, with temperatures about 10 degrees below
average. Freeze Warning will also be over the Central Gulf Coast States to
the Southeast.

In addition, upper-level troughing over the Upper Midwest/Upper Great
Lakes into the Northeast and cold air streaming over the Great Lakes will
produce heavy lake-effect snow over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
through Monday. Lighter snowfall will develop over most of the west coast
of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan during the time period. However, heavy
lake-effect snow will develop over the parts of the northern Lower
Peninsula of Michigan near the Traverse City to Gaylord regions. Moreover,
heavy lake-effect snow will develop downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario
through Monday.

Moreover, a quasi-stationary front extending from the Middle Mississippi
Valley to the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains will remain through
Monday. Furthermore, a wave of low pressure will develop on the boundary
over parts of the Central Plains and move eastward to the Central
Appalachians by Sunday morning. The system will produce light to moderate
snow over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley eastward to the Central
Appalachians on Saturday into Sunday morning. The light to moderate snow
will continue over the Central Appalachians on Sunday. Additionally, light
snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains on Saturday. The light
snow will continue on Sunday and expand into parts of the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley.

Meanwhile, weak return flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create light rain
over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Saturday into Monday morning.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

29Nov2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stocks End Month In Record Territory

November 29, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 189 points or 0.42%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 158 points or 0.83%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 34 points or 0.56%,
  • Gold $2,676 up $11.40 or 0.44%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.19 or 0.29%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.172 down 0.070 points or 1.556%,
  • USD index $105.81 down $0.33 or 0.31%,
  • Bitcoin $97,072 up $1,436 or 1.5%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks reached record highs on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both achieving new peaks during a holiday-shortened trading session. The Nasdaq Composite also saw a significant increase marking a strong finish to a successful month for all major indices, which experienced their best post-Thanksgiving Friday since 2012. The gains on Friday capped off a month where the S&P 500, Dow, and small-cap Russell 2000 all recorded their best monthly performance in a year. Notably, the S&P 500’s overall gain through November represented its best year-to-date performance since 2013, with an increase of over 25% so far this year. Investor sentiment remained buoyed despite concerns regarding potential inflation impacts from the president-elect’s proposed tariffs on key trading partners, including Mexico, Canada, and China. Optimism grew when Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum indicated that a tariff war might be avoided following discussions with Trump. Additionally, speculation about a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts did not dampen enthusiasm as investors looked forward to what has been one of the strongest years for the stock market in recent history. If the S&P 500 achieves another annual gain of over 20%, it would mark the first consecutive years of such growth since 1998-1999.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Brazil Opens Doors to New Oil Exploration with 91 Blocks on Offer
  • Ceasefire With Hezbollah Shifts Israel’s Focus to Iran
  • The Secretive Oil Shipping Hub Funneling Iranian Crude to China
  • Uganda to Fund $4-Billion Oil Refinery after Ditching Efforts to Tap Markets
  • Iran Could Go Nuclear if Sanctions Are Reimposed
  • Ukraine Claims Hit on Oil Depot in Russia
  • Analysts Cut 2025 Oil Price Forecasts Again
  • Russia’s Gas Supply to Europe Remains Stable Before Ukraine Transit Deal Ends
  • Trudeau Government Frets Over Trump Oil Tariffs
  • Bitcoin heads for nearly 40% November gain as it edges closer to $100,000
  • Trump voters could fuel holiday spending, while Harris supporters may pull back
  • Putin Says Trump ‘Not Safe’ After Assassination Attempts, Slams Mudslinging Against His Family
  • “This Week, The Second Trump Trade War Started”
  • Smith & Wesson Deplatformed From Facebook As Musk Welcomes Gun Industry To X

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

November 29, 2024Posted inUncategorized2 Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved and insignificantly returned to positive territory. Our index shows a weak economy where any old monkey wrench will plunge the economy into recession. Inflation remains unchanged compared to last three months – a strange situation after the Federal Reserve declared progress on curtailing inflation. We do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 29, 2024

November 29, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 29 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 29 2024 – 12Z Sun Dec 01 2024

…Heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes through Sunday…

…Light snow over parts of the Central Appalachians on Friday and light
to moderate snow from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central
Appalachians on Saturday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Plains…

A slow-moving front across Florida will aid in creating showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast to Florida on Friday.
After the boundary moves south of Florida, scattered light rain will
develop along the east coast of the Florida peninsula on Saturday. An area
of high pressure over Central Canada will usher cold air over parts of the
Northern Plains, bringing temperatures of 10 to 25 degrees below average.
The cold air has prompted Cold Weather Advisories over parts of North
Dakota on Friday morning.

In addition, upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes into the Northeast
and cold air streaming over the Great Lakes will produce heavy lake-effect
snow over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan through Sunday. Lighter snowfall
will develop over most of the west coast of the Lower Peninsula of
Michigan during the time period. However, heavy lake-effect snow will
develop over the parts of the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
Moreover, heavy lake-effect snow will develop downwind of Lakes Erie and
Ontario through Sunday.

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Middle Mississippi Valley to
the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains will be the focus for light snow
over parts of the Northern High Plains on Friday and over parts of the
Northern Plains on Saturday.

Furthermore, a wave of low pressure will develop on the boundary over
parts of the Central Plains and move eastward to the Central Appalachians
by Sunday. The system will produce light to moderate snow over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley eastward to the Central Appalachians on
Saturday into Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, weak return flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create light rain
over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Saturday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.