Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 21, 2023

November 21, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 21 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 21 2023 – 12Z Thu Nov 23 2023

…Active weather expected to impact pre-Thanksgiving travels for much of
the U.S. east of the Mississippi River but should exit the East Coast just
in time for Thanksgiving…

…Severe weather threat will progress from west to east across the
central Gulf Gulf states into the Southeast…

…Heavy rain expected to move through the interior Mid-Atlantic tonight
with some snow and freezing rain over interior New England into
Wednesday…

…Snow is forecast to develop over the northern Rockies to northern High
Plains to begin Thanksgiving holiday…

20 Nov 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: After A False Start The Main Indexes Trended Higher And Closed Near Session Highs

November 20, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments
  • The Dow closed up 204 points or 0.58%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.13%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.74%,
  • Gold $1,980 down $5.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $1.81,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.422% down 0.019 points,
  • USD Index $103.48 down $0.440,
  • Bitcoin $37,494 up $566 ( 1.53% )

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. fell by 0.8 percent in October 2023 to 103.9 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in September. The Conference Board continues to see a recession in the near future. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board, adds:

The US LEI trajectory remained negative, and its six- and twelve-month growth rates also held in negative territory in October. Among the leading indicators, deteriorating consumers’ expectations for business conditions, lower ISM® Index of New Orders, falling equities, and tighter credit conditions drove the index’s most recent decline. After a pause in September, the LEI resumed signaling a recession in the near term. The Conference Board expects elevated inflation, high-interest rates, and contracting consumer spending—due to depleting pandemic saving and mandatory student loan repayments—to tip the US economy into a very short recession. We forecast that real GDP will expand by just 0.8 percent in 2024.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Clean Energy Start-ups Are Struggling As They Wait For Federal Aid
  • Coast Guard Says Up to 26,000 Barrels May Have Leaked Into Gulf of Mexico
  • Oil Giant YPF Surges 40% After Outsider Wins Argentinian Presidential Election
  • Houthi Ship Seizure Threatens Oil Market Stability
  • Nvidia stock closes at all-time high, a day before earnings
  • U.S. gas prices are falling and could hit the cheapest Thanksgiving day price since 2020
  • Hundreds of OpenAI employees threaten to follow Altman to Microsoft unless board resigns
  • Most Americans tip 15% or less at a restaurant — and some tip nothing, poll finds
  • Market Snapshot: Dow Jones climbs, S&P 500 aims to exit correction on hopes the Fed is finished raising rates

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 20, 2023

November 20, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 20 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 20 2023 – 12Z Wed Nov 22 2023

…Enhanced Risk of severe weather across the Deep South later
today/tonight ahead of a low pressure system…

…Locally heavy rain and possibly strong thunderstorms across the
Mid-Mississippi Valley today and then across the interior Mid-Atlantic
Tuesday into early Wednesday…

…High-elevation snows and lower elevation rain across the central and
southern Rockies/High Plains expected to taper off tonight…

…Santa Ana winds develop over southern California during the next couple
of days…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 19, 2023

November 19, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 19 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023 – 12Z Tue Nov 21 2023

…Unsettled weather expands across the western U.S. with strong winds,
high-elevation snows, and coastal/lower-elevation rains…

…Low pressure system developing over the central High Plains will bring
an expanding area of showers and thunderstorms across the central U.S.
towards the eastern U.S….

…Above average temperatures for the South and the Northern Plains while
colder air surges across the western U.S….

Adventures With 3 Coin Flips. Part 3: Possibilities vs. Realities

November 19, 2023Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

Flipping a coin three times seems like a simple process.  But there are myriad complications that can arise.  In Part 1 of this series, we saw that data sampling for coin flips can influence how results are interpreted.  In this post, we will look closely at how probability assessments (possibilities) can lead to propositions deviating from the reality ensuing when coin flips are actually carried out.  We will consider the concept of ‘alternate universes’.  Who would have guessed that flipping a coin three times would go there?

Crop Report of Progress and Production Estimates November 18, 2023

November 18, 2023Posted inagricultureNo Comments

Record High Corn Forecast

This article is based primarily on two sets of information:

A. The Crop Bulletin that was issued on November 14, 2023, and

B. Crop Production Executive Summary issued on November 9, 2023.  We only used a limited number of graphics from this long presentation…different graphics than we used last month. We provide a link to the full report. For the three main crops the NASS forecasts are higher than many of the industry forecasts so we will see if NASS has it right or if NASS is being overly optimistic.

We are coming to the end of this growing season so we are including both the progress of crops and the estimates of the final production hence the use of the two reports.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts.

 

We first look at the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data.

Below is pretty much the same information in table format. However, there is a lot of additional information in these tables.

 

 

Some additional detail is provided HERE

It is mostly some additional weeks of data and it is all in larger print.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 18, 2023

November 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 18 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 18 2023 – 12Z Mon Nov 20 2023

…Unsettled weather expands across the western U.S. with strong winds,
high-elevation snows and coastal rains…

…Another system forming over the central High Plains will bring an
expanding area of showers and thunderstorms across the central U.S….

…Great Plains warms up as the West cools down…

17 Nov 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Mixed, Early Morning And Afternoon Saw Trading Along The Unchanged Line In A Very Narrow Trading Zone, Finally Closing Up And Mostly Flat

November 17, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments
  • The Dow closed up 2 points or 0.01%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.08%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.13%,
  • Gold $1,983 down $4.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $2.89,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.439% down 0.006 points,
  • USD Index $103.87 down $0.470,
  • Bitcoin $36,392 up $484 ( 1.59% )
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. up 2 to 618 rigs

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in October 2023 were down 4.4% YoY – up from the -7.4% the previous month (blue line on the graph below). Privately‐owned housing starts were down 4.2% YoY – up from the 8.0% the previous month (red line on the graph below). Privately‐owned housing under construction were little changed at 1,674,000 annualized (orange line on the graph below). Privately‐owned housing completions were down to 1,410,000 annualized – down from the 1,478,000 the previous month (green line on the graph below). Cutting through the haze of the data, new housing is actually fairly strong despite high interest rates as evidenced by the high count of units under construction and completed.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • OPEC Said To Consider Additional 1 Million Bpd Output Cut
  • Oil Gains Over 4% Likely On Profit-Taking, Short Covering
  • Breakthrough Research Unveils True Cause of Battery Degradation
  • US Drillers See Sharpest One-Week Increase In Oil Rigs Since February
  • U.S. Sanctions U.A.E. Maritime Firms for Bypassing Russian Oil Price Cap
  • OpenAI’s Sam Altman exits as CEO because ‘board no longer has confidence’ in ability to lead
  • Black Friday came early this year, signaling worries about holiday demand
  • S&P 500 ends Friday slightly higher, major averages cruise to third week of gains: Live updates
  • White House blasts Elon Musk for promoting ‘Antisemitic and racist hate’
  • Autumn Statement: Jeremy Hunt considering cuts to inheritance tax
  • Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks rise, Dow heads for third straight week of gains

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates Its Seasonal Outlook on November 16, 2023 – El Nino Weather through Late Spring

November 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for December. It will be updated on the last day of November.

Then I present a graphic that shows both the preliminary Outlook for December and the three-month outlook for DJF 2023-2024. So you get the full picture in one graphic. For some, that may be all they are interested in. Others will be interested in the longer-term predictions and also the rationale supporting the predictions which is mostly provided by the NOAA discussion.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the outlook for next month and the three-month outlooks are somewhat different with respect to temperature and also to some extent precipitation.  This tells us that January and February will be different than December to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through December/January/February of 2025. All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are there for December and the three-month period Dec/Jan/Feb.  Small maps are provided beyond that through February of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps.[Author’s Note: many other meteorological agencies see this El Nino being stronger than NOAA does so there is more than usual uncertainty relating to the more distant months.]

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 17, 2023

November 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 17 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 17 2023 – 12Z Sun Nov 19 2023

…Heavy rain over eastern to northern Florida Peninsula expected to taper
off later today as main low pressure system moves out to sea…

…Unsettled weather expanding into the western U.S. through the weekend…

…A cold front will usher gusty winds and much colder temperatures from
the northern Plains today and spreading into the eastern U.S. on Sunday…

cone graphic