Nonfinancial Corporate Credit and Inflation: Part 3

February 25, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

The full data sets for the 71 years from 1952 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for nonfinancial credit growth and inflation changes.1  Thus, we started an analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 71-year timeline.  The most recent post2 analyzed the eight time periods over 71 years with positive inflation surges.  This article analyzes the five periods for 1952-2022 with negative inflation (disinflation/deflation) surges.


Photo by Dennis Siqueira on Unsplash.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 25, 2024

February 25, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Feb 25 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Feb 25 2024 – 12Z Tue Feb 27 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades, the Northern Intermountain
Region, Northern/Central Rockies, and higher elevations of the Great
Basin…

…Light snow over parts of the Northeast and snow over the Northern
Plains on Monday...

…Heavy snow over parts of the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Monday…

A strong winter storm and cold front will move into the Northwest on
Sunday and progress southeastward into the Northern Rockies on Monday.
Heavy mountain snow over the Cascades will impact the passes by late
Sunday, with greater than 80% chance of at least a foot of snow above
1500ft through early Tuesday. In addition, snowfall will sometimes become
heavy, with rates of 1-2 inches per hour, along with windy conditions,
creating areas of blowing snow and drifting snow and significantly
reducing visibility.

Furthermore, snow squalls are likely along the path of the cold front on
Monday over the Northern Intermountain Region/Rockies, which could create
a rapid drop in visibility and icing on roadways, leading to dangerous
travel. Additionally, much colder air behind the strong cold front will
drop temperatures into the teens and colder by Tuesday morning.

Further, the system will produce coastal rain over the Northwest, with
snow levels lowering to near sea level after the front passes. Overnight
Sunday, rain will move into parts of California, with higher-elevation
snow. Moreover, on Monday, heavy snow will impact the Sierra Nevada
Mountains. A wave of low pressure will move over parts of the Northern
Plains by Monday evening as snow develops over the region. There is also a
risk of rain/freezing rain moving over parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley.

Meanwhile, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward
over the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and Ohio
Valley. The moisture will aid in creating scattered light rain showers
over parts of the Ohio Valley overnight Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday,
the moisture will produce showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valley. Furthermore, upper-level energy will assist in creating light snow
over parts of the Northeast overnight Sunday into Monday evening.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

An Unexpected Decline in Spring Atmospheric Humidity in the Interior Southwestern United States and Implications for Forest Fires: Posted on February 24, 2024

February 24, 2024Posted inClimateNo Comments

I think this is about Global Warming But I am not sure. NOAA funds or partial funds research but then you have to pay to see it and for sure to publish it which I think is illegal but that is how the government works.

This appears to be very important.  It would have been nice to have access to the full paper but one can buy a copy for not a lot of money.

Corresponding author: Tess W.P. Jacobson, tessj@ldeo.columbia.edu

Image credit: Pixabay

To read more you probably have to click on “Read More”.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 24, 2024

February 24, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Feb 24 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Feb 24 2024 – 12Z Mon Feb 26 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of Cascades and the Northern Intermountain Region
on Sunday…

…Light snow over parts of the Central Appalachians on Saturday and over
the Northeast on Sunday…

…Light snow over parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes…

A front extending from the Mid-Atlantic to the Central Plains will move
southward to the Southeast to the Lower Mississippi Valley before
dissipating by Sunday morning. The boundary will have a wave of low
pressure over Central Appalachians, moving eastward off the East Coast by
Saturday evening. The system will create light snow over parts of the
Central Appalachians and Southern Appalachians overnight Saturday, ending
by Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will also develop over parts
of the southern Mid-Atlantic, ending by Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, on Saturday, weak onshore flow and upper-level energy will
produce light snow over parts of the Northern Cascades and Northern
Intermountain Region. Overnight Saturday, a front will move southward out
of Central Canada to the Northern Plains by Sunday morning and into the
Great Lakes by Monday. On Sunday, the system will produce light snow over
parts of the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes.

Moreover, more robust onshore flow will aid in producing rain and higher
elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Heavy snow will
develop over parts of the Cascades and the Northern Intermountain Region
into Monday morning. In addition, overnight Sunday, a front will move
across the Pacific Northwest, lowering the snow levels over the region.

Elsewhere, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will start to stream
northward over the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Ohio Valley starting overnight Saturday. The moisture will aid in creating
scattered light rain showers over parts of the Ohio Valley overnight
Sunday into Monday. Furthermore, upper-level energy will assist in
creating light snow over parts of the Northeast overnight Sunday into
Monday morning.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

23 Feb 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Three Main Indexes Opened To Set New Historic Highs, Most of The Session Was Trading Sideways, Finally Closing Mixed

February 23, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 62 points or 0.16%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.28%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.03%,
  • Gold $2,047 up $15.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $2.01,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.252% down 0.075 points,
  • USD index $103.95 UNCH $0.00,
  • Bitcoin $51,075 down $824 (1.65%),
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +5 to 626 Canada -3 to 231

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

None today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Oil Drilling Sees 6-Rig Gain
  • Oil Industry Thinks OPEC+ Will Extend Production Cuts Into Q2
  • Russian Energy Is Too Cheap for Some Countries To Resist
  • Oil Prices Remain Rangebound As Volatility Fades
  • Plunging Natural Gas Prices Is Bad News for Drillers
  • Warner Bros. Discovery is hyping free cash flow. Investors don’t appear to be buying it
  • Dow rises to close at fresh record, S&P 500 hits all-time high: Live updates
  • United Airlines raises checked bag fee $5, following American
  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Warner Bros. Discovery, Rivian, Block, Live Nation and more
  • AI chip firm Nvidia valued at $2tn
  • ‘No-landing’ scenario and strong stock market raise the risk of a bonds selloff

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 23, 2024

February 23, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Feb 23 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Feb 23 2024 – 12Z Sun Feb 25 2024

…Light snow over parts of Northern New England on Saturday…

…Light snow over parts of the Upper Midwest to the Central
Appalachians…

…Rain along the East Coast from the Mid-Atlantic to the Southeast on
Saturday…

A front along the East Coast will move eastward off the East Coast by
Friday evening. The system will create snow over parts of Northern New
England and rain over Southern New England through Friday evening. In
addition, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southeast through late Friday night.

Meanwhile, a second front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Northern Plains will move southward to the Gulf Coast States by Sunday and
eastward off the Northeast Coast by Saturday morning. A wave of low
pressure over southern Wisconsin will move southeastward to the Central
Appalachians by Saturday. On Friday, the system will produce light snow
over parts of the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley, and Upper
Great Lakes. Overnight Friday, the slight snow will move into parts of the
Ohio Valley and the Lower Great Lakes into parts of the Northeast. On
Saturday light snow will develop over parts of the Central Appalachians
and Southern Appalachians overnight Saturday. Light rain will develop over
parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic overnight Saturday, ending by Sunday.

Furthermore, upper-level energy moving over the Pacific Northwest to the
Northern Plains will create light snow over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies through Saturday evening. A third
front will also move southward out of South-Central Canada into the
northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley by Sunday morning. Scattered
light snow will develop over parts of the Northern High Plains overnight
Saturday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Giovanni Fortezza: Savior of the male species in pro/am ballroom dancing

Giovanni Fortezza: Savior of the male species in pro/am ballroom dancing

February 23, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

Everybody who is anybody in competitive pro/am ballroom dancing should know who Giovanni is, last name optional!

With his teacher Jolanta Mosteika, Giovanni has dominated Rhythm for more than a decade (initially age-group B, and now C), defeating all the men and women in his way to win at the USDC and OSB for 10 consecutive years!

22 Feb 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Nvidia’s Blockbuster Earnings Were Up 338% To $16.8 Billion, Pushing Wall Street To New Historic Highs, Dow Climbed 500 Points, Finally Closing Near Session Highs

February 22, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 457 points or 1.18%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.96%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 2.11%,
  • Gold $2,034 down $0.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.53,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.321% down 0.001 points,
  • USD index $103.95 down $0.05,
  • Bitcoin $51,933 up $972 (1.91%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.02 in January from –0.14 in December. The MA3 is used for economic forecasting as it is much less volatile than the one-month index. Twenty-six of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in January, while 59 made negative contributions. Thirty-one indicators improved from December to January, while 53 indicators deteriorated and one was unchanged. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35. Conversely, periods of economic contraction have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 below –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index below –0.35.

Existing-home sales grew in January 2024 year-over-year sales slipped 1.7% but month-over-month there was some improvement. The median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $379,100, an increase of 5.1% from one year ago ($360,800). NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

While home sales remain sizably lower than a couple of years ago, January’s monthly gain is the start of more supply and demand. Listings were modestly higher, and home buyers are taking advantage of lower mortgage rates compared to late last year. The median home price reached an all-time high for the month of January. Multiple offers are common on mid-priced homes, and many homes were still sold within a month. The elevated share of cash deals – 32% – indicated a market full of multiple offers and propelled by record-high housing wealth.

In the week ending February 17, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 215,250, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 218,500 to 218,750.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Pakistan Considers Iran Gas Pipeline Restart Despite U.S. Sanctions
  • Land Availability Forced India To Scale Back Solar Power Installations
  • Red Sea Chaos To Have Limited Effect On LNG Prices
  • EIA Confirms Crude Build, Surprises with Products Draw
  • India’s Refining Margins Slump as It Struggles to Secure Russian Oil
  • Nvidia shares pop 16% after AI-fueled bumper earnings
  • Why ether is outperforming bitcoin by nearly 10% so far this year: CNBC Crypto World
  • AI and semiconductor stocks surge after Nvidia’s earnings beat
  • Tax evasion by millionaires and billionaires tops $150 billion a year, says IRS chief
  • Dow, S&P 500 surge to record closes in best day of 2024 after Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Colorado River Basin Mid-February, 2024 Water Supply Forecast Discussion – Posted February 22, 2024

February 22, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood, and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy.

In this article, I am providing a summary of their Water Supply Forecast Discussion released on January 17, 2024.  The situation is not very good. However, due to a wet winter last winter, the reservoirs are mostly in good shape.

I have also included information on the current BOR reservoir storage levels including some that are outside of the Colorado River Basin.

The image below shows part of the area covered in the CBRFC Report.  The map shown here is only the Colorado Basin. The Eastern Great Basin is to the west of this map. The maps shown in the article cover both basins but are not as scenic as this map.

Map showing both the Colorado Basin and Eastern Great Basin.

Most of the information presented in this part of the article is from a summary report (Link) issued by the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center. February 16, 2024, Water Supply Forecast Discussion
The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) geographic forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), and Eastern Great Basin (GB). It is one of many similar organizations within the National Weather Service. They are all different. In the future, I will try to pay more attention to some of the other River Forecasting Centers but they do not all go out of their way to provide reports to the Media. But the Colorado River is a special situation in a way due to the problems complying with the Colorado River Compact. But all our rivers are important.

At this time of the year,  we are still hopefully adding to the snowpack for future snowmelt. Additional information is available on the Center website (click HERE), there are certain graphics that update daily. And now I provide the main part of their new forecast discussion summary. I am copying directly from their document. My comments are in boxes. At the end of the report I provide addition “Tea Cup” diagrams of many USBOR Reservoirs. I also provide two very interesting forecasts for two of the most import reservoirs Lake Powell and Lake Mead.

 

The CBRFC weather forecast is for a changing weather pattern.  For updated weather forecasts go to econcurrents.com 

and look for the most recent “Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S.” in the list of Recent Posts.

Please click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.

Elaine Krieger: A ballroom danceaholic

Elaine Krieger: A ballroom danceaholic

February 22, 2024Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

Elaine is such a ballroom danceaholic that she dances all four styles, plus nightclub, and she participated in 30 comps in 2023! At OSB 2023, she made the finals in three styles (Rhythm, Smooth, and Latin) and the semi-final in Ballroom. Additionally, she received the award of the top female student (Bronze). She also received the top Dancesport female student award three years in a row (2021-2023)!