28 Feb 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Another Session Of Roller Coasting Trading Sends Indexes Deep Into The Red Finally closing Moderately Down

February 28, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 23 points or 0.06%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.55%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.17%,
  • Gold $2,043 down $1.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.53,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.266% down 0.049 points,
  • USD index $103.95 up $0.12,
  • Bitcoin $60,088 up $3,216 (5.66%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023 – down slightly from the advance estimate of 3.3%. With the second estimate, downward revisions to private inventory investment and federal government spending were partly offset by upward revisions to state and local government spending, consumer spending, residential fixed investment, nonresidential fixed investment, and exports. Imports were revised up. Year-over-year Real GDP growth remains at 3.1%.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Has Launched 230 Attacks on Houthis Over Red Sea Disruption
  • U.S. Natural Gas Prices Gain Over 3% After Hitting 1997 Low
  • Raging Wildfire Threatens Texas Oil Rigs, Refinery
  • Ford Halts Shipments of 2024 F-150 Lightning Pickup Trucks
  • EIA Confirms Moderate Crude Build, Products Draw
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq close lower Wednesday as inflation report looms: Live updates
  • Coinbase users see $0 balance after crypto-trading app suffers glitch
  • Bitcoin rockets to $64,000 as it closes in on previous all-time high: CNBC Crypto World
  • Microsoft OpenAI Chatbot Suggests Suicide, Other ‘Bizarre, Harmful’ Responses
  • Government would avoid shutdown under House speaker’s proposal

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

February 28, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index modestly improved but continues insignificantly in negative territory. We continue to forecast that a recession is not imminent. One indicator (Conference Board Leading Economic Index) is no longer signaling a recession, but there remain three other major indicators that are.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 28, 2024

February 28, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Feb 28 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Feb 28 2024 – 12Z Fri Mar 01 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades, the Northern Intermountain
Region, Northern California, and Sierra Nevada Mountains…

…Light to moderate snow over the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and
Northeast…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 25 degrees above average over parts of the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic…

A second winter storm will impact the West Coast on Wednesday and
Thursday. The second significant winter storm will primarily affect the
Northwest Wednesday and Thursday before significantly impacting the
Northern and Central California mountains Friday.

The storm will create heavy mountain snow that will affect many passes.
Multiple feet of snow are likely (over 80% chance) for higher elevations,
significantly above 5000 feet, including many Cascade and Sierra Nevada
Mountains passes. Extremely heavy snow rates surpassing 3 inches per hour
are possible in these mountain ranges.

Furthermore, the storm will produce blizzard conditions in the Sierra
Nevada Mountains. In detail, strong winds will cause significant blowing
and drifting snow, with whiteout conditions, making travel impossible in
the Sierra Nevada Mountains. There is a high chance (over 70%) of
substantial, long-lasting disruptions to daily life in the higher
elevations of the Sierra Nevada Mountains Friday, where blizzard
conditions and over 5 feet of snow are expected.

Moreover, in addition to the snow, coastal rain will develop over parts of
the Pacific Northwest Wednesday into Friday. Coastal rain will develop
over parts of Northern California overnight Wednesday, continuing into
Friday. The rain moves into Central California on Thursday, continuing
into Friday, and parts of Southern California by Friday morning.

Meanwhile, on Wednesday, a deep low over the Upper Great Lakes will move
northeastward into Eastern Canada by Wednesday evening. The associated
front will move off the East and Gulf Coast by Thursday morning. Ahead of
the front, southerly wind will bring warm temperatures of 10 to 25 degrees
above average over parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.

On Wednesday, the boundary will create showers and thunderstorms from the
Central Gulf Coast to the Northeast. In the wake of the front, moderate to
heavy snow will develop over the Great Lakes into the Northeast, with
light to moderate snow over the Central Appalachians on Wednesday. In
addition, on Thursday, lake-effect snow will develop downwind from the
Great Lakes, ending by Thursday night.

Elsewhere, upper-level energy moving into the Southwest and Southern
Rockies will produce scattered showers, thunderstorms, and
higher-elevation snow from Wednesday afternoon into Thursday. Overnight
Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
Southern Plains, moving into the Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and
Southern Ohio Valleys and parts of the Southeast.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

27 Feb 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Roller Coaster Trading Sends Indexes Back And Forth Along The Unchanged Line Finally closing Mixed

February 27, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 97 points or 0.25%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.37%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.17%,
  • Gold $2,040 up $0.03,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $1.12,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.309% up 0.010 points,
  • USD index $103.83 down $0.01,
  • Bitcoin $56,970 up $2,5246 (4.64%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies hit 194 to start 2024, down 5% from the 204 CEO exits recorded in December 2023. It is a 73% increase from the 112 CEO exits that occurred in the same month one year prior.

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January 2024 declined 0.8% year-over-year. There was a general weakness across the board with the worst performance in civilian aircraft. As I continue to point out, there is a recession underway in the manufacturing sector.

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey increased from −15 in January to −5 in February 2024. Of its three component indexes, shipments remained solidly negative at −15, new orders increased from −16 to −5, and employment rose notably, from −15 to 7. More evidence of a recessionary manufacturing sector.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20 cities composite home price index shows a 6.1% increase year-over-year in December 2023. CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp added:

While CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller National Index rose by 5.5% year over year, the stress of high mortgage rates at the end of 2023 continued to depress prices, which were down 0.4% compared to November – the second month of lower prices. Nevertheless, Miami and Las Vegas – joined by Los Angeles – continued to see strengthening of home prices despite higher rates. Miami overall ranked as the strongest appreciating market in 2023, up 6% for the year, compared to national appreciation of 2%. In 2022, Tampa and Miami were the strongest appreciating markets at almost 30% increase in home prices. In contrast, markets in the West – San Francsico, Seattle, Las Vegas, Phoenix, and Portland – are still catching up with 2022 price peaks. But with strong recent price rebounds in Las Vegas and Phoenix in 2023, these two markets are likely to see annual appreciation in 2024.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in February to 106.7 (1985=100), down from a revised 110.9 in January. February’s decline in the Index occurred after three consecutive months of gains. However, as January was revised downward from the preliminary reading of 114.8, the data now suggest that there was not a material breakout to the upside in confidence at the start of 2024. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

The decline in consumer confidence in February interrupted a three-month rise, reflecting persistent uncertainty about the US economy. The drop in confidence was broad-based, affecting all income groups except households earning less than $15,000 and those earning more than $125,000. Confidence deteriorated for consumers under the age of 35 and those 55 and over, whereas it improved slightly for those aged 35 to 54.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Simulated Star Collision Leads to Breakthrough in Nuclear Waste Treatment
  • Supply Chain Woes Could Derail Biden’s Electric Vehicle Agenda
  • Kremlin Warns of Escalation if NATO Troops Fight in Ukraine
  • Short Sellers in Trouble As Physical Oil Market Defies Data
  • Red Sea Disruptions Spark Oil Tanker Shortfall
  • S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite close higher on Tuesday: Live updates
  • Warner Bros. Discovery halts merger talks with Paramount Global, sources say
  • Bitcoin’s all-time high is in sight after the crypto breached $57,000, chart analysts say. Here’s what to expect
  • Bitcoin surges past $57,000 to highest level since December 2021: CNBC Crypto World
  • For Black workers, progress in the workplace but still a high hill to climb
  • Stock Bull Market Might Just Be Getting Started, But…
  • Are U.S. stocks in a bubble? History says no.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Ice Coverage Nearly Nonexistent Across the Great Lakes, as the Historical Peak Approaches: Posted on February 27, 2024

February 27, 2024Posted inClimateNo Comments

This article is mostly excerpted from a post by Haley Thiem on Climate.Gov which you can access HERE. I am calling it Global Warming News but it may just be natural variation. But I think we should look at this as possibly related to Global Warming.

 Author’s Note: This is a typical graphic used in meteorology and hydrology. The individual years are shown but may be difficult to see as they are faint but the average of the prior 50 years is clearly visible.  The blue line shows this year to date (February 15, 2024). It is clearly unusual. Is it unusual enough to conclude that it is outside of the range of Post Industrial Revolution Climate? I do not know. If this pattern shows up a few more times some will draw that conclusion. And for sure the winter is not yet over and I think it is snowing there right now.  Whether it is cold enough for ice to form I do not know. Since we are comparing the current to a 50 year average, I have categorized this as climate rather than weather but others may see it differently.

To read the remainder of the article most will need to click on “read more”

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 27, 2024

February 27, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Feb 27 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Feb 27 2024 – 12Z Thu Feb 29 2024

…Heavy snow returns over parts of the Cascades, the Northern
Intermountain Region, and Northern Rockies on Wednesday…

…Heavy snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley and moderate to
heavy snow over the Cascades to Central Rockies on Tuesday…

…Light to moderate snow over the Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and
Northeast on Wednesday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes on Tuesday…

A strong winter storm and cold front will continue to progress through the
West, reaching the Central Rockies on Tuesday. Furthermore, the storm will
create near-blizzard conditions, resulting in dangerous travel. Snowfall
rates of 1-2 inches per hour will move into the Great Basin and Central
Rockies on Tuesday. These snow rates combined with winds gusting 50-65 mph
will produce near-blizzard conditions with significantly reduced
visibility and snow-covered roads leading to dangerous travel. Further,
significant snow accumulations will occur across the Colorado Rockies
southward into the San Juans and Sangre de Cristos; there is a high chance
(greater than 70%) of more than 8 inches of snow in the higher elevations.

In addition, widespread snow squalls are expected to develop along the
path of the cold front from Utah to Wyoming and Colorado on Tuesday. Where
snow squalls occur, intense snow rates will produce rapid drops in
visibility and icing on roadways, resulting in dangerous travel.

In addition, much colder air will move in behind the strong cold front.
Temperatures will fall into the teens and single digits Tuesday morning
throughout the Intermountain West.

Another powerful storm will move over the West, producing a significant
winter storm over the Pacific Northwest late Wednesday into Thursday, as
heavy snow returns to the Northern Cascades and Northern Intermountain
Region.

Meanwhile, on Tuesday, a front extending from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Central Rockies will create heavy snow over parts of the Upper Mississippi
Valley and moderate to heavy snow over the Upper Great Lakes. Ahead of the
front, southerly wind will bring warm temperatures of 15 to 30 degrees
above average to the Southern Plains to the Great Lakes. The warm and dry
conditions with gusty winds across the Southern Plains have resulted in an
Elevated Risk of Fire Weather (level 1/3) from the Storm Prediction Center
on Tuesday.

Additionally, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream
northward over the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Ohio Valley. The moisture will aid in creating showers and severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley, and Great Lakes through Wednesday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Further, there is an increased threat of hail two inches or greater over
parts of southwestern Michigan, most of Illinois and Indiana, plus
southeastern Missouri.

Moreover, as the robust front moves across the Great Lakes to the East
Coast, moderate to heavy snow will develop over the Great Lakes into the
Northeast, with light to moderate snow over the Central Appalachians on
Wednesday into Thursday morning. Ahead of the snow, showers and
thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Northeast. The boundary will
also create showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Eastern Ohio
Valley, Central Appalachians, into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast.

Elsewhere, upper-level energy moving into the Southwest and Southern
Rockies will produce scattered showers and thunderstorms from Wednesday
afternoon into Thursday morning.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

26 Feb 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened In The Green Expecting New Highs, But Turned Down, Finally Closing Fractionally In The Red

February 26, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 62 points or 0.16%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.13%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.38%,
  • Gold $2,043 down $6.60,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $1.17,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.278% up 0.018 points,
  • USD index $103.78 down $0.16,
  • Bitcoin $54,427 up $2,705   (5.23%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2024 are 1.8% above January 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2024 was $420,700. The average sales price was $534,300. The seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of January represents a supply of 8.3 months at the current sales rate.

The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey in February 2024 shows the production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rebounded 16 points to 1.0. The near-zero reading suggests flat output month over month. The manufacturing surveys from the regional Feds are still showing little manufacturing growth so far this year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • WTI Pops as Red Sea Shipping Echoes in Slumping European Diesel Supply
  • Operations Resume at Libya’s Oil Facilities Amid Guards Protest
  • Cybertruck Owners Lash Out at Tesla Over Stainless Steel Rust Problems
  • Anti-Oil Activists Shift Focus to Insurers
  • Goldman Raises Forecast of Brent Oil Summer Price to $87
  • Jamie Dimon is ‘cautious about everything’ as he sees risks to a soft landing
  • The S&P 500 closes lower on Monday, retreating from record, as rally pauses: Live updates
  • Bitcoin resumes its rally, ripping through $54,000 for the first time since December 2021
  • Amazon joins the Dow on Monday, giving the 127-year-old index a needed upgrade as it trails the S&P 500
  • MicroStrategy buys another 3,000 bitcoin, total holdings now worth about $10.3 billion: CNBC Crypto World
  • H&R Block used deceptive marketing and unfairly deleted tax filer data, FTC complaint alleges
  • Broadcom stock rises to a record after $4 billion deal to sell its EUC Division

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Increasing Prevalence of Hot Drought Across Western North America Since the 16th Century: Posted February 26, 2024

February 26, 2024Posted inClimateNo Comments

In this case, the actual paper is available to be read. This should always be the case. If the U.S. Government is paying for research that research should not be behind a paywall. It is not the role of the U.S. government to create business opportunities for publications. I think that doing so is illegal. In this case, the full paper is open source and I provide the introduction to the paper and the link to get the full download. It is not easy reading.

To read more most will need to click on “Read More”. This is not a new finding but it supports some earlier papers some of which we have reported on. It is not a pretty picture and it is somewhat surprising as warmer water should in theory create a wetter atmosphere but during drought, the soil dries out and this seems to be happening more often than in the past so it is one more negative impact of Global Warming.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 26, 2024

February 26, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Feb 26 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Feb 26 2024 – 12Z Wed Feb 28 2024

…Heavy snow over parts of the Cascades, the Northern Intermountain
Region, Northern/Central Rockies, Sierra Nevada Mountains, and higher
elevations of the Great Basin…

…Moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Upper Midwest…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio
Valley/Great Lakes on Tuesday…

A strong winter storm and cold front will move across the Pacific
Northwest to the Central Rockies by Tuesday evening. The strong cold front
will continue progressing through the region, reaching the Northern
Rockies on Monday and the Central Rockies on Tuesday.

The storm will create near-blizzard conditions, resulting in dangerous
travel. Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are expected over the Oregon
Cascades and Northern Rockies Monday before spreading into the Great Basin
and Central Rockies Tuesday. These snow rates combined with winds gusting
50-65 mph will produce near-blizzard conditions with significantly reduced
visibility and snow-covered roads leading to dangerous travel.

Moreover, significant snow accumulations are expected, with snow totals
greater than 2 feet are expected (greater than 80% chance) in the Cascades
through Tuesday, with locally as much as 4 feet possible in the highest
terrain. Elsewhere across the Intermountain West, there is a high chance
(greater than 70%) of more than 1 foot of snow in the higher elevations.
Lowering snow levels to near sea level will also produce some
accumulations onto the valley floors.

Furthermore, widespread snow squalls are expected to develop along the
path of the cold front on Monday and Tuesday. Where snow squalls occur,
intense snow rates will produce rapid drops in visibility and icing on
roadways, resulting in dangerous travel.

In addition, much colder air will move in behind the strong cold front.
Temperatures will fall into the teens and single digits by Tuesday morning
along and east of the Rockies.

Meanwhile, southerly wind will bring warm temperatures to the Plains ahead
of the strong cold front. The warm and dry conditions with gusty winds
across the Southern High Plains have resulted in a Critical Risk of Fire
Weather (level 2/3) from the Storm Prediction Center on Monday, which is
likely to continue into Tuesday.

Additionally, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream
northward over the Southern Plains, Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley, and
Ohio Valley. The moisture will aid in creating scattered light rain
showers over parts of the Ohio Valley. By Tuesday, the moisture will
produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley, Middle Mississippi Valley,
and Great Lakes from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Further, on Tuesday,
there is an increased threat of hail two inches or greater over parts of
northern Illinois and Indiana, plus northwestern Ohio.

Moreover, as the strong front moves out of the Rockies onto the Plains,
light to moderate snow will develop over parts of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley on Monday. Moderate to heavy snow will
develop overnight Monday into Tuesday over northern Minnesota. Similarly,
overnight Tuesday into Wednesday, light to moderate snow will develop over
part of the western U.P. of Michigan. Elsewhere, showers and thunderstorms
will move into parts of the Central Appalachians and northern
Mid-Atlantic, with showers and thunderstorms extending into parts of the
Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.