Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 5, 2024

January 5, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jan 05 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Jan 05 2024 – 12Z Sun Jan 07 2024

…Light to moderate snow expected for portions of the southern and
central Great Plains along with localized flash flooding for the Gulf
Coast today…

…Significant icing possible for portions of the southern and central
Appalachians tonight into Saturday…

…Snow from developing East Coast winter storm to begin affecting
interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Saturday…

…Pacific storm system to bring renewed round of heavy mountain snow and
coastal rain to the Northwest Coast tonight into Saturday…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

04 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Mixed, Continued To Trade In A Roller-Coaster Fashion, And Only The Dow Closed Fractionally Higher

January 4, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 10 points or 0.03%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.56%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.34%,
  • Gold $2051 up $8.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $0.30,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.999% up 0.092 points,
  • USD index $102.40 down $0.10,
  • Bitcoin $44,179 up $1,441 (3.37%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The ADP National Employment Report for December 2023 shows U.S. private employment rose 164,000 led by a healthy bump in leisure and hospitality hiring. Construction held strong in the face of high-interest rates, but manufacturing continued to struggle, notching another month of losses. This is the highest growth since August. According to Nela Richardson
Chief Economist, ADP:

We’re returning to a labor market that’s very much aligned with pre-pandemic hiring. While wages didn’t drive the recent bout of inflation, now that pay growth has retreated, any risk of a wage-price spiral has all but disappeared.

In the week ending December 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 207,750, a decrease of 4,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 212,000 to 212,500.

U.S.-based employers announced 34,817 job cuts in December 2023, down 24% from the 45,510 cuts announced in November. It is down 20% from the 43,651 cuts announced in the same month one year prior, according to a report released Thursday from Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

The percent of small business owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 20%, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. However, forty percent of owners have job openings they could not fill. Labor costs reported as the single most important problem for business owners increased one point to 9%, four points below the highest reading of 13% reached in December 2021. Per NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg:

The tight labor market has been a consistent concern for small business owners throughout 2023. The level of job openings suggests a solid labor market will continue on Main Street for 2024, as owners raise compensation to attract qualified workers and consumers spend.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • China in 2024: Economic Trials and Geopolitical Maneuvering
  • Tech Trade War Looms as China Restricts Rare Earth Exports
  • From Black Gold to Tech Marvel: Coal’s New Role in Electronics
  • Average U.S. Natural Gas Prices Plunged by 62% in 2023
  • Very Large Product Builds Push Oil Lower Despite Crude Draw
  • U.S. Overtakes Qatar to Become World’s Top LNG Exporter
  • Friday’s jobs report will be a big signal for a market looking for good news
  • Walgreens stock plunges after drugstore chain slashes quarterly dividend nearly in half
  • Bitcoin bounces back above $44,000 amid volatile start to 2024: CNBC Crypto World
  • Magnificent Seven’s January Start Gives Clues To Market’s Year
  • Nasdaq logs longest losing streak in over a year as the S&P 500 falls for a fourth day to extend the dismal 2024 start

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 4, 2024

January 4, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jan 04 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jan 04 2024 – 12Z Sat Jan 06 2024

…Snow expected for portions of the Four Corners region and adjacent High
Plains Thursday…

…Showers and thunderstorms with some locally heavy rainfall forecast
from Texas late Thursday into the Southeast Friday with storm system
traversing the Gulf Coast…

…Series of Pacific storm systems will keep low-elevation/coastal rain,
interior wintry mix, and high elevation mountain snow in the forecast for
the Pacific Northwest, Northern Rockies, and Great Basin…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

03 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Major Indexes Gapped Down At The Opening Bell And Traded Mostly Sideways Before Closing Moderately In The Red At Session Lows

January 3, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 285 points or 0.76%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.18%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.80%,
  • Gold $2049 down $24.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $2.71,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.903% down 0.037 points,
  • USD index $102.45 up $0.27,
  • Bitcoin $42,740 down $2,078 (4.64%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 47.4% in December 2023, up 0.7 percentage points from the 46.7% recorded in November. The overall economy continued in contraction for a third month after one month of weak expansion preceded by nine months of contraction and 30 months of expansion before that. According to the ISM, a Manufacturing PMI above 48.7% over some time generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. As the overall economy has been expanding whilst manufacturing is in a recession – one can assume that this rule is not applicable.

The number of job openings changed little at 8.8 million on the last business day of November 2023. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations decreased to 5.5 million and 5.3 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.5 million) edged down and layoffs and discharges (1.5 million) changed little. The general trend of job openings is falling which correlates to employment gains.

The highlights of the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee for December 12–13, 2023 show: [note: that these minutes state that the Fed is likely done raising the federal funds rate. But I have a hard time reading into these minutes that the Fed will soon begin cutting rates.]

… Regarding the economic outlook, participants generally judged that, in 2024, real GDP growth would cool and that rebalancing of the labor market would continue, with the unemployment rate rising somewhat from its current level.

… participants noted the improvement in both headline and core inflation and discussed the developments in components of these aggregate measures. They observed that progress had been uneven across components, with energy and core goods prices falling or changing little recently, but core services prices still increasing at an elevated pace.

… Participants generally perceived a high degree of uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook. As an upside risk to both inflation and economic activity, participants noted that the momentum of economic activity may be stronger than currently assessed, possibly on account of the continued balance sheet strength of many households. Furthermore, participants observed that, after a sharp tightening since the summer, financial conditions had eased over the intermeeting period. Many participants remarked that an easing in financial conditions beyond what is appropriate could make it more difficult for the Committee to reach its inflation goal

… participants viewed the policy rate as likely at or near its peak for this tightening cycle, though they noted that the actual policy path will depend on how the economy evolves. Participants pointed to the decline in inflation seen during 2023, noting the recent shift down in six-month inflation readings in particular, and to growing signs of demand and supply coming into better balance in product and labor markets as informing that view. Several participants remarked that the Committee’s past policy actions were having their intended effect of helping to slow the growth of aggregate demand and cool labor market conditions. They judged that, in combination with improvements in the supply situation, these developments were helping to bring inflation back to 2 percent over time. Most participants noted that, as indicated in their submissions to the SEP, they expected the Committee’s restrictive policy stance to continue to soften household and business spending, helping to promote further reductions in inflation over the next few years.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • UK Manufacturing Sector Plunges Deeper Into Crisis
  • Oil Gains Over 3% On Libya, OPEC and Middle East Escalation
  • Argentina’s New President Is Looking To Shake Up Its Oil Industry
  • BYD’s Record-Breaking Quarter Challenges Tesla’s EV Dominance
  • MidEast Conflict Escalates with 2 Explosions in Iran Killing 100
  • Dow tumbles nearly 300 points Wednesday, Nasdaq closes lower for a 2nd straight day in 2024: Live updates
  • Xerox to cut 15% of its workforce
  • Mortgages, auto loans, credit cards: Expert predictions for interest rates in 2024
  • U.S. recession still a threat; China growth stalls, and other 2024 investing risks
  • 10-year Treasury yield slips after December Fed minutes show officials didn’t rule out further rate hikes

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 3, 2024

January 3, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 03 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 03 2024 – 12Z Fri Jan 05 2024

…Showers and thunderstorms spread eastward from the central Gulf Coast
Wednesday into Florida and portions of the Southeast Wednesday night…

…Lake-effect snow showers forecast downwind from the Great Lakes…

…Lower elevation/coastal rain and higher elevation accumulating snowfall
continues in California, the Great Basin, and the Southwest/Four Corners
Region Wednesday, with snow shifting into the Central/Southern High Plains
Thursday…

…Precipitation chances remain in the forecast for the Pacific Northwest
as a couple system pass through…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

02 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Three Main Indexes Opened Sharply Lower Sending The Nasdaq And S&P 500 Trending Lower While The Dow Modestly Gained

January 2, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 26 points or 0.07%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.63%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.57%,
  • Gold $2068 down $4.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $1.20,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.931% up 0.071 points,
  • USD index $102.23 up $0.89,
  • Bitcoin $44,846 up $1,473 (2.69%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during November 2023  is 11.3% above November 2022 (10.8% inflation-adjusted). Construction continues to be one of the strongest sectors in the economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Central Asia’s Delicate Dance Around Russian Sanctions
  • Germany Boasts Record Renewable Capacity Additions in 2023
  • Russia’s Pipeline Gas Exports to Europe Plunge by 56% in 2023
  • The Rise of Tesla: Model 3 and Y Dominate Global EV Sales
  • U.S. Gasoline Prices Begin Falling Again
  • Record Declines in Grain Prices May Ease Global Food Crisis
  • China Reinstates Coal Tariffs, Impacting Global Suppliers
  • S&P 500 closes lower to begin 2024, Nasdaq notches worst day since October: Live updates
  • Bitcoin soars to kick off 2024, topping $45,000 for first time since April 2022: CNBC Crypto World
  • BYD beats Tesla for a second straight year after producing more than 3 million cars in 2023
  • Dow flat, Nasdaq ends lower to start 2024, with jobs report ahead this week
  • Treasury yields end with biggest one-day jump in almost a month

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 2, 2024

January 2, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 02 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 02 2024 – 12Z Thu Jan 04 2024

…Pacific system to bring coastal/lower elevation rain and mountain snows
to California and the Pacific Northwest Tuesday, spreading into the Great
Basin and Southwest Wednesday…

…Moderate to locally heavy rainfall expected with showers and
thunderstorms for portions of Texas and the Gulf Coast…

…Lake-effect snows downwind from the Great Lakes over the next couple of
days…

For those who may have missed the January update, here is the key graphic.

 

 I provide the link to the full report published on Monday in the body of this article.  The above shows in the top row the updated outlook for January.  The bottom row is the three-month outlook issued on December 21.  Do I think that outlook is still valid?  I have to say no. The changes made to the January Outlook raise questions about the three-month outlook. But NOAA says the changes were due to the MJO and AO. The MJO will not impact February and March based on what happened in January. It is not clear if the changes to the AO will carry into subsequent months. And it is not clear that the changes in the outlook were fully explained in the discussion issued with the updated outlook.  So we will be in suspense until the new Seasonal Outlook is issued on January 18, 2024.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today with some additional comments on the article issued yesterday.

NOAA Realizes it is a Powerful El Nino and Updates its January 2024 Outlook. January 1, 2024

January 1, 2024Posted inweather2 Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is January of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some very significant changes in the Outlook for January and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for January for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for January. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the January Drought Outlook.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for January is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for January and the Mid-Month Outlook for January. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for January and the three-month outlook JFM 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for January 2024

 

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the Mid-Month Outlook for January.

 

There have been some significant changes. Remember, it is the top set of maps that are the current outlook for December. Until now we were not sure that NOAA (actually their CPC Divison) had moved the storm track sufficiently south given the strength of this El Nino as measured by the Nino 3.4 Index. All of a sudden they have.

The top row is the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.  The three-month map was issued on December 21, 2023.  Is it still valid?

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 1, 2024

January 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 01 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 01 2024 – 12Z Wed Jan 03 2024

…Quiet and generally mild pattern across the country will mean minimal
weather-related disruptions New Year’s Day…

…Widespread showers and thunderstorms for eastern Texas into the Lower
Mississippi Valley late Tuesday…

…Unsettled weather to arrive across California and the Pacific Northwest
Tuesday…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report

Adventures With 3 Coin Flips. Part 7: Reality and Ergodicity

December 31, 2023Posted ineconomics, opinionNo Comments

The complexity of analyzing a process as simple as flipping a coin three times raises concerns about how to describe reality in modeling.  In dealing with coin flips, we have a known probability for the result of each flip.  Also, many modeling scenarios may have more than three elementary steps.  Additionally, the probabilities associated with elementary steps may not be known.  How does this complicate the modeling process?  This review will address that question with specific emphasis on social science models, especially economics.