Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Mar 12 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 12 2024 – 12Z Thu Mar 14 2024

…One more day of unsettled weather across the Pacific Northwest and
northern California before the precipitation gradually tapers off on
Wednesday…

…Mountain snows spreading into the northern and central Rockies on
Wednesday before heavy snow develops over central Colorado Wednesday
night…

…Fire danger across the southern High Plains will be followed by chance
of severe thunderstorms across the north-central Plains later on Wednesday
as rain may change over to wet snow in the nearby High Plains…

…Anomalously warm temperatures to expand eastward from the Upper Midwest
into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Wednesday…

A gradual shift in the large-scale upper-level pattern across the U.S.
will bring unsettled weather that has been impacting the Pacific Northwest
in recent days progressively eastward into the central U.S. by Wednesday
night. The final in a series of Pacific fronts and low pressure systems
will push onshore into the West Coast today, bringing additional mountain
snow and lower-elevation rain with one to possibly two feet of new snow
along the Cascades. As the main upper trough presses eastward through the
western U.S. the next couple of days, areas along the West Coast will have
a chance to gradually dry out on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the main batch of
moisture will penetrate farther inland in the form of mountain snow
pushing into the northern to central Rockies on Wednesday. The upper
trough will also help develop a low pressure system over the central High
Plains on Wednesday. The interaction of the upper trough with the
intensifying low pressure system will begin to organize and focus an area
of moderate to heavy snow over central Colorado by early on Thursday. By
Thursday morning, snow could be falling in earnest over the mountainous
terrain into the Front Range and nearby High Plains of central Colorado.

On the warm side of the low pressure system, low relative humidity and
gusty winds will continue to raise the danger of wildfires across central
to southern High Plains today, followed by a more southward focus from the
Texas Panhandle to western Texas on Wednesday. The dry environment in the
Plains states will initially limit the formation of showers and some
thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest today
into early on Wednesday. However, as the low intensifies, influx of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to organize an area of
enhanced rainfall over the vicinity of Nebraska Wednesday night as the
storm center passes just to the southeast. Some of the enhanced rainfall
could be accompanied with severe weather. In addition, there is a
possibility that the western portion of the enhanced rainfall would change
over to wet snow early on Thursday if additional cold air wraps around the
storm center.

Across the eastern U.S., the departure of a strong surface low near Nova
Scotia into the western Atlantic will allow the gusty winds to moderate
further across the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Breezy
conditions are likely to remain for northern New England into Tuesday
night, but overall improvement is expected. High pressure over the
southern U.S. will slide eastward over the next couple of days, allowing
winds to return from the south, bringing warmer temperatures northward.
The greatest departures from normal highs will remain over the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region on Tuesday which may cause a few record
daily maximum temperatures to be broken, but the magnitude of the
anomalous warmth is likely to be lower on today compared to Monday. High
temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s will expand eastward through
Wednesday across the Ohio Valley and portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic
into the Northeast, roughly 15 to 25 degrees above mid-March averages.
With the warmer weather will come the threat for thunderstorms across
portions of the central U.S. Some severe thunderstorms will be possible
ahead of a dryline from eastern Oklahoma/Kansas into western Missouri on
Tuesday with a broader risk across some of these same areas on Wednesday.
Again, the prevailing dry environment will initially limit the intensity
of the storms.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Mar 11 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 11 2024 – 12Z Wed Mar 13 2024

…Heavy wet snow will continue into the morning hours on Monday across
the higher elevations of the northern New England and portions of the
lower Great Lakes…

…Unsettled weather is expected to persist across the Pacific Northwest
and into the northern Rockies with multiple rounds of lower-elevation rain
and higher elevation snow…

…Fire danger to increase across the central and southern High Plains
from very dry conditions, gusty winds, and warm temperatures…

A deep low pressure system centered over Downeast Maine early this morning
will be slow to move away into the Canadian Maritimes. The ongoing heavy
wet snow associated with this system is expected to linger across the
higher terrain from the Adirondacks of New York, up across the Green and
White Mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire respectively. Meanwhile, the
cold air pouring southeast over the lower Great Lakes will sustain heavy
lake-effect snow shower activity with squalls locally across upstate New
York into the morning of today before they gradually taper off during the
afternoon. The snow will likely taper off to snow showers and flurries by
tonight across northern Maine. Nevertheless, the strong and gusty winds
are expected to persist into Tuesday as the large circulation of the low
pressure system will take time to depart.

In the wake of the low pressure system, a large dome of high pressure will
build across the South and into the Southeast while taking its time to
slide off into the Atlantic. Temperatures over the next couple of days
will be well above normal especially across the central and northern
Plains and the Midwest before gradually advancing into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. The return of dry weather coupled with increasingly gusty
winds and low relative humidity will promote an increased risk of
wildfires. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted large
areas of the central and southern High Plains in an elevated to critical
fire danger area. This will include the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma
where devastating fires occurred a couple weeks ago.

Meanwhile across the Pacific Northwest, multiple low pressure systems
arriving from the Pacific will bring frequent rounds of precipitation
onshore and then farther inland into the northern Rockies through the next
couple of days. Moderate to locally heavy rain is expected for the coastal
ranges with heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Cascades,
northern Sierra Nevada, and the Sawtooth, Bitterroot, and Teton ranges of
the northern Rockies. The Cascades will likely receive the heaviest
snowfall totals where as much as 1 to 2 feet of new snow can be expected.

Temperatures are expected to begin rebounding rather quickly for much of
the East and the South by later Tuesday as milder air from the Plains and
Midwest advances east together with warm air beginning to return north
from the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures across portions of eastern
South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin are forecast to be as much as
30 to 40 degrees above normal on today and Tuesday with temperatures
approaching or locally exceeding 70 degrees. Some cities will likely be
warm enough to see their daily high temperature records either tied or
broken today.

Meanwhile, a cooling trend is expected across the western U.S. as colder
air associated with an upper trough pushes inland to bring moderate to
locally heavy mountain snow into the central Rockies by early Wednesday
while the West Coast begins to dry out. Farther east, a low pressure
system is forecast to develop over the central to southern High Plains
Tuesday night. The dry environment in the vicinity will initially limit
the formation of showers and some thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi
Valley into the Midwest early on Wednesday. Some light snow could brush
the northern Plains near Canadian border early Wednesday ahead of a
clipper system.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Mar 09 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 09 2024 – 12Z Mon Mar 11 2024

…Heavy rain and some severe weather expected to move across the
Southeast today followed by heavy rain and strong winds across the
Mid-Atlantic and southern New England tonight into Sunday morning…

…Wet snow and strong winds across northern New England from tonight
through much of Sunday followed by lake-effect snows across the lower
Great Lakes into Monday morning…

…Frequent rounds of lower-elevation rain and mountain snow expected to
reach the Pacific Northwest through the next couple of days…

A complex interaction among a cold air mass dipping into the mid-section
of the country, an amplifying upper-level trough, moist air from the Gulf
of Mexico ingesting into the South, and a subtropical jet stream will
bring widespread increment weather through the eastern U.S. into Sunday.
The heaviest rainfall is expected to be found across the Southeast where
some of the thunderstorms could become severe. The Weather Prediction
Center has a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall forecast for the eastern
Carolinas for today. The low pressure center that forms and intensifies
along the southern front is forecast to track up the East Coast and reach
southern New England by early on Sunday. Areas from central Appalachians
into southern New England are expected to see a period of moderate to
occasionally heavy rain later today into early Sunday as the low pressure
center passes just to the southeast. Farther inland, colder air wrapping
around the intensifying storm will support wet snow across northern New
England during the same time period. This will be followed by lake-effect
snows across the lower Great Lakes into Monday morning when colder air
pours in behind the big low. Strong and gusty winds will expand and then
engulf the entire northeastern U.S. as the big low intensifies further and
begins to exit into the Canadian Maritimes by Monday morning.

In the wake of the storminess in the East, high pressure will take over
the entire central and southern U.S. with dry conditions persisting into
the new work week. The dry weather will extend into much of the western
U.S. as well. However, moisture associated with the next Pacific system
is forecast to reach the Pacific Northwest in a hurry today in the form of
lower-elevation rain and mountain snow for rather high elevations. More
systems arriving from the Pacific will result in frequent rounds of
precipitation persisting across the western portions of Washington,
Oregon, and down into northern California. The Cascades and higher
terrain of northern California will likely receive a couple more feet of
new snow through Monday.

Temperatures will generally be cooler than normal across the South but
above normal across the North. The East will be milder than normal today
ahead of the intensifying low pressure system before colder air surges
into the region on Sunday. Temperatures across the West will average near
normal.