17 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Another Down Day On Wall Street With Markets Opening Sharply Down, But recovering Enough To Close Moderately In The Red

January 17, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 94 points or 0.25%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.59%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.56%,
  • Gold $2,009 down $21.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $0.30,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.100% up 0.034 points,
  • USD index $103.36 up $0.37,
  • Bitcoin $42,585 down $523 (1.271%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S. import prices declined 1.6% year-over-year in December 2023, after declining 1.5 percent in November. Prices for U.S. exports fell 3.2% year-over-year in December following a 5.2% decline the previous month. For all of 2023, it was cheaper to buy an imported product.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2023 were up 5.6% above December 2022 – 2.2% inflation-adjusted. Retail sales have been gradually improving since May 2023.

Industrial production improved 1.0% year-over-year in December with components manufacturing up 1.2% year-over-year, mining up 4.3% year-over-year, and utilities down 4.9% year-over-year. This is the first month since February 2023 that manufacturing has grown year-over-year. Is the manufacturing recession over?

According to the Federal Reserve’s January 2024 Beige Book:

A majority of the twelve Federal Reserve Districts reported little or no change in economic activity since the prior Beige Book period. Of the four Districts that differed, three reported modest growth and one reported a moderate decline. Consumers delivered some seasonal relief over the holidays by meeting expectations in most Districts and by exceeding expectations in three Districts, including in New York, which noted strong holiday spending on apparel, toys, and sporting goods. In addition, seasonal demand lifted airfreight volume from ecommerce in Richmond and credit card lending in Philadelphia. Several Districts noted increased leisure travel, and a tourism contact described New York City as bustling. Contacts from nearly all Districts reported decreases in manufacturing activity. Districts continued to note that high interest rates were limiting auto sales and real estate deals; however, the prospect of falling interest rates was cited by numerous contacts in various sectors as a source of optimism. In contrast, concerns about the office market, weakening overall demand, and the 2024 political cycle were often cited as sources of economic uncertainty. Overall, most Districts indicated that expectations of their firms for future growth were positive, had improved, or both.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • China Hits 5.2% Growth Target Despite Population Challenges
  • U.S. Gasoline Prices End 2-Week Losing Streak
  • Europe’s Nuclear Power Renaissance
  • Tennessee Valley Authority Asks Customers To Conserve Power Amid Cold Spell
  • ran’s Strike in Pakistan Adds to Middle East Tensions
  • Jamie Dimon warns ‘all these very powerful forces’ will impact U.S. economy in 2024 and 2025
  • Dow closes lower Wednesday, notching third straight losing session as bond yields rise: Live updates
  • Samsung announces new Galaxy S24 lineup with AI-powered photo editing, search features
  • Trump says ‘I would love it’ when judge threatens to kick him out of E. Jean Carroll trial
  • Beige Book Finds “LIttle Or No Change” In Economic Activity But Optimism Rises On Hopes Of Lower Rates
  • 10-, 30-year Treasury yields hit five-week highs after December retail sales data
  • Tesla could be staring down a year of ‘growing pains,’ analyst cautions

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Our Report on the JAMSTEC Three-Season Forecast – Posted on January 17, 2024

January 17, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology

From the JAMSTEC Discussion:

“The recent observation suggests that the El Niño reached its peak. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that the El Niño will decay and an El Niño Modoki will develop and persist at least until the next boreal spring. The model also predicts that a La Niña Modoki will occur in boreal autumn. However, there is a large uncertainty in the predicted amplitude.”

Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World.

First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on January 10, 2024 which is a week before when NOAA will issue their Seasonal Update this month but I had so many articles to publish that I did not publish this JAMSTEC forecast immediately.  The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of January 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook will be based on conditions closer to the time when it is issued.

We have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We also have single-month forecasts for February, March and April 2024.

Let’s take a look.

 

This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Red is warm and is associated with El Nino if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas.  You can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in the MAM image but look at that blob of warm water to the west i.e. by this point in time this has Modoki characteristics which impact the Walker circulation. JJA and SON show ENSO Neutral or La Nina.

JAMSTEC (and also NOAA) are showing very warm oceans in many parts of the world.  I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. which probably explains their strange forecast.

JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology) as NOAA. JAMSTEC does a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers.

JAMSTEC has been having some computational issues with its model. From the email I received from them: “Because of changes to the library in our computer, this time we could not complete all members”. Last month they were not able to publish at all. I do not know how to assess their message to me. In November they upgraded their model from 12 members to 36. Their goal is to go to 108. On the website, the images indicate that all members were included. It is not possible to accurately estimate the current conditions. So the technique in ensemble models is to perturb the assumptions slightly for multiple model runs (or use different physics models for some runs) and take the average (mean) of the solutions. Each solution is called a member of the group of solutions for which the mean was taken.  I am intrigued by the coincidence of this “change to the library in our computer” with their publication of this article. Based on the Japanese Culture they would not have released this forecast if they did not have confidence in it.

Some Readers will have to click on “Read More” to read the rest of the article which you need to read to see the forecasts. I can only include a certain amount of material in the lede.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 17, 2024

January 17, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jan 17 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jan 17 2024 – 12Z Fri Jan 19 2024

…Heavy mountain snows for the Northwest/Rockies; ice storm for portions
of the Pacific Northwest…

…Bands of heavy lake-effect snow continue for the Great Lakes…

…A return to more typical Winter temperatures for many Wednesday after
the brutal cold; another Arctic blast expected late this week…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

16 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Lower, Nasdaq Saw Green Once, Dow Dropped Over 300 Points, Finally Closing Moderately Down In The Red

January 16, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 232 points or 0.62%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.19%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.37%,
  • Gold $2,032 down $19.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $0.68,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.068% up 0.116 points,
  • USD index $103.36 up $0.96,
  • Bitcoin $43,236 up $346 (0.81%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

CoreLogic Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) shows national single-family rent growth remained stable in November 2023. As in the past few months, rental demand is picking up in pricier coastal areas of the U.S., with the Boston, New York, San Diego, and San Francisco metros all ranking in the top five for annual gains in November. Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic stated:

More than three years of increasing U.S. single-family rents and the rising costs of other goods have made many renters sensitive to the cost of living. Many renters are renewing their current leases, and others who are moving are seeking lower-priced alternatives.

The January 2024 Empire State Manufacturing Survey shows the headline general business conditions index fell twenty-nine points to -43.7, its lowest reading since May 2020. New orders and shipments also posted sharp declines. Unfilled orders continued to shrink significantly, and delivery times continued to shorten. Inventories edged lower. Employment and the average workweek declined modestly. Even though I am not a fan of surveys, this one is extremely recessionary. Manufacturing as a sector has been in recession for over one year.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • The World’s Top 50 Power-Hungry Data Center Markets
  • North Dakota Oil Output Down Up to 650,000 BPD in Severe Storm
  • Navy SEALs Seize Vessel with Iranian Missile Parts Bound for Houthis
  • Shell To Sell its Onshore Oil Business in Nigeria
  • Shell Halts All Red Sea Shipments as Tensions Rise
  • Qatar Halts Red Sea LNG Shipments As Regional Tensions Escalate
  • Dow closes more than 200 points lower Tuesday after 10-year Treasury yield tops 4%: Live updates
  • AMD shares jump 7% and head for highest close since 2021 on AI chip demand
  • UBS raises S&P 500 target for 2024, sees nearly 8% gain from here
  • Hush Money: JP Morgan Pays $18 Million Fine For Violating Whistleblower Protection Rules
  • No rate cuts in 2024? Why investors should think about the ‘unthinkable.’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 16, 2024

January 16, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Jan 16 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Jan 16 2024 – 12Z Thu Jan 18 2024

…Snow continues across the Mid Atlantic and Northeast…

…Additional freezing rain and elevation snowfall expected over the
Pacific Northwest…

…Brief reprieve from the brutal cold after this morning; another Arctic
blast expected late this week…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

15 Jan 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Closed For MLK Holiday, Little Changed For Commodities Markets

January 15, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Markets Closed Today – Martin Luther King Day:

      Commodities As Of 4 PM EST

  • Gold $2,059 up $7.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $0.18,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.939% down 0.036 points,
  • USD index $102.58 up $0.18,
  • Bitcoin $42,895 up $330 (0.95%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – January 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Turns Slightly Negative

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

none

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Prices at American Pumps Tick Higher Amid Volatility
  • Why The U.S. is Suddenly Expanding its Claims on Ocean Seabeds
  • Houthis Strike U.S. Merchant Vessel After Targeting Warship
  • Texans Asked to Conserve Energy as Deep Freeze Strains Grid
  • Poland Plans End Date for Coal Power Phase-Out
  • 10 years in, GM CEO Mary Barra has built her legacy on change and crisis. 2024 will bring new tests
  • Inflation is still a mixed bag, but markets don’t care. They see big Fed rate cuts ahead
  • 42-year-old brings in more than $1 million a year from newsletter, podcast: ‘My advice is just stop tweeting and do the work’
  • Death, ‘Disease X’, & “Rebuilding Trust” With The Denizens Of Davos
  • Why Donald Trump is unlikely to get his wish for a 2024 U.S. stock-market crash

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Looking back at 2023 Weather for the World -Posted on January 15, 2024

January 15, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. The full NCEI report for 2023 can be accessed HERE.

 

 

 

I added the below to what John Bateman provided.

 

2023 was a busy year

 

This is the temperature trend for the world: land and water. There was a big increase in 2923.

 

This is also land and water [corrected previous error) and it is by month and it shows the ENSO state of each month. You can really see that the temperature goes up with the El Nino phase and down with La Nina. It has to do with the releases and absorption of heat by the oceans during the different ENSO Phases. A main reason for that is simple. During La Nina the strong Easterlies along the Pacific skim off the warm surface water is forced into the IndoPacific Warm Pool where it covers a smaller area. When the Easterlies relax during an El Nino the warm water spreads out so the Ocean Surface is warmer. There are other factors also.

 

 

This is just land Globally. It also increased in 2023 but not as much as when including both land and water.

This is for the year but just North America which in not just the U.S. but includes the U.S.   2023 seemed to match but not beat a year about seven years earlier.

 

 

This is December only for North America which includes the U.S. but more than the U.S..  2023 saw a big increase.

This is just the U.S. for December and we have shown this before but you can see that the increase here is less than for North America probably because it does not include Alaska.  I did not include enough graphs to make it easy to figure out but Northern Hemisphere has warmed more than the Southern Hemisphere. It probably has to do with the higher ratio of land to water in the Northern Hemisphere.  When water warms it is not just at the surface so the impact of Global Warming on the surface of water is less than the impact on the surface of land.
Now we will go back to the information in the Bateman email and some readers will have to click on Read More to see the rest of this article.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 15, 2024

January 15, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jan 15 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jan 15 2024 – 12Z Wed Jan 17 2024

…Dangerously cold temperatures continue across much of the U.S…

…Snow and freezing rain continue over the Southern U.S today, spread
into the Mid-Atlantic …

…Heavy lake effect snowfall continues…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.

Select Short Term and IntermShort Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted January 14, 2024

January 14, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the highlights from the NWS.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jan 14 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jan 14 2024 – 12Z Tue Jan 16 2024

…Dangerous cold temperatures to persist across much of the U.S…

…Significant, impactful wintry precipitation to develop over the
Mid-South later today…

…Significant wintry weather winding down over the Pacific Northwest and
Great Basin…

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full report issued today.