25Mar2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: A Down Day But The Markets Are Still In The Green For March

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 162 points or 0.41%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.27%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.31%,
  • Gold $2172 down $56,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $1.38,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.249% up 0.031 points,
  • USD index $104.22 up $0.22,
  • Bitcoin $70,366 up $3,131

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.18 in February from –0.11 in January. Economic expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20. The CFNAI is my favorite coincident index. The bottom line here is that the economy is expanding, but is expanding  below the historical average for periods of expansion.

Sales of new single‐family houses in February 2024 were up 5.9% above February 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in February 2024 was $400,500 – which is 7.6% lower than the price one year ago. The average sales price was $485,000. The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of February was 463,000. This represents a supply of 8.4 months at the current sales rate. New home sales remains a bright spot in the economy.

Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey activity weakened in March after stabilizing in February. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, fell five points to -4.1, a reading that suggests a slight decline in output month over month. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the U.S.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Decentralized Renewable Energy Helps Ukraine Weather Russian Attacks
  • Chip War Escalates as China Bans Intel, AMD Chips in Government Computers
  • Russian Refinery Halts Half Its Capacity Following a Ukrainian Drone Attack
  • Truth Social owner Trump Media will begin trading under DJT ticker Tuesday
  • Boeing CEO to step down in broad management shake-up as 737 Max crisis weighs on aerospace giant
  • Our Economy And Politics Are Broken
  • Why Is The National Guard Being Deployed During The Great American Eclipse On April 8th?
  • EV maker Lucid rallies after $1 billion investment by majority stockholder as it burns cash

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 25, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Mar 25 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 25 2024 – 12Z Wed Mar 27 2024

…Major Winter Storm continues today…

…Excessive Rainfall and Severe Weather impacts across Mississippi Valley
and central Gulf Coast…

…Critical Risk of Fire Weather over southern Texas; frigid temperatures
expand across Great Plains…

A powerful storm system will impact the Northern/Central Plains into the
Upper Midwest through Tuesday. Periods of snow and gusty winds will
continue from the Central Plains to northern Minnesota, along with some
sleet and freezing rain in parts of the Upper Mississippi Valley. Snow
accumulating at rates of 1-2″/hr in heavier bands are expected from
central Nebraska and eastern South Dakota to northern Minnesota.
Additional snowfall totals between 6-12 inches are forecast from central
Nebraska to northeastern Minnesota. Heavy snow and gusty winds approaching
50 mph will produce blizzard conditions with near zero visibility into
early Tuesday. Travel could be nearly impossible. Power outages and tree
damage are likely in some areas due to the heavy and wet snow combined
with icing and strong winds. Winter Storm/Blizzard Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories are in effect from portions of the Central/Southern
High Plains to the Upper Midwest.

In the warm sector of the winter storm, scattered rain showers and
thunderstorms will spread across the Mississippi Valley and central Gulf
Coast ahead of a cold front today. There’s an Enhanced Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms (level 2/5) to occur across portions of southeast Arkansas
into northeast Louisiana and central Mississippi. Tornadoes and damaging
winds are possible through tonight from parts of east Texas through the
Lower Mississippi Valley, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
There’s also a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to
Flash Flooding over portions of southern Missouri down through Arkansas,
Mississippi and west-central Alabama. While the Severe Weather threat
wanes on Tuesday, the Excessive Rainfall threat simply shifts into the
Southeast. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect over portions
of southern Alabama, southwestern Georgia and the Florida panhandle on
Tuesday, due, in part, to a stalled out low pressure system along the Gulf
Coast.

Strong westerly flow along the base of an upper trough will support very
dry and gusty winds in excess of 25 mph over portions of the Southern
Plains today. Thus the Storm Prediction Center issued a Critical Fire
Weather area (level 2/3) for far southern Texas. A frigid airmass will
spill out over the Great Plains today, where high temperature anomalies
will be 15-30 degrees below average. A moderating temperature trend begins
on Tuesday. Unsettled weather returns to the Pacific Northwest by
Wednesday thanks to a deep low pressure system.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Financial Sector Debt and Inflation. Part 3

The full data sets for the 71 years from 1952 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for financial sector debt (FSD) and inflation changes.1  Thus, we started an analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 71-year timeline.  The most recent post2 analyzed the eight time periods over 71 years with positive inflation surges.  This article analyzes the association of FSD during the five periods from 1952 to 2022 with negative inflation (disinflation/deflation) surges.


Photo by Ehud Neuhaus on Unsplash.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 24, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Mar 24 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 24 2024 – 12Z Tue Mar 26 2024

…High-impact winter storm continues across portions of the
Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest through early week…

…Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorm threatens Southern Plains to
Southeast…

…Critical Fire Weather for Central/Southern High Plains today; frigid
airmass descends into Great Plains…

A potent closed low will continue fueling a powerful and dynamic winter
storm across the Great Plains and Upper Midwest over the next couple days.
Heavy snow will expand into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest today
and continue into Tuesday. Heavy snow is also expected in parts of the
Central Plains tonight and Monday. There is a high chance (>70%) of at
least 8 inches of snow extending from northern Nebraska and central South
Dakota northeastward to central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin.
Heavy snow and gusty winds will produce areas of blowing and drifting snow
and possible blizzard conditions today into Monday. Hazardous travel and
road closures are expected late today into early week.

Strong winds and heavy, wet snow on trees and power lines may damage trees
and cause power outages. Wind gusts over 50 mph today may result in power
outages, blowing dust with reduced visibility, difficult travel and
property damage. Critical Fire weather conditions are forecast in portions
of the Southern Plains today, where Red Flags are also in effect.
Anomalously cold air will filter in behind the winter storm, spilling out
into Montana today then the Great Plains through early week. High
temperatures in the 20s and 30s across the High Plains over the next
couple days will be 15-30 degrees below average.

Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms are possible within the warm
sector of the aforementioned dynamic winter storm over the next couple
days. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across portions of
the Central/Southern Plains today. There’s a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
Severe Thunderstorms over parts of central Kansas into northern-central
Oklahoma this afternoon through evening where isolated to scattered severe
storms could produce large hail and a few tornadoes. Showers and
thunderstorms develop over the Mississippi Valley on Monday as the winter
storm moves into the Plains and a southern stream system organizes along
the Gulf Coast. The combination of these two systems may produce heavy to
Excessive Rainfall, as well as scattered Severe Thunderstorms from the
central Gulf Coast up into the Middle Mississippi Valley. There are Slight
Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) and Severe Thunderstorms (level
2/5) for these areas. A few tornadoes and damaging winds are possible
Monday through Monday night from parts of east Texas into the Lower
Mississippi Valley.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Colorado Basin Water Supply Forecast Plus More: Posted March 23, 2024

The mission of the National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) is to produce river, flood, and water supply forecasts for the Colorado Basin and the Great Basin in support of saving lives and property and to enhance the region’s environment and economy. The Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) geographic forecast area includes the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB), Lower Colorado River Basin (LCRB), and Eastern Great Basin (GB). You can access their website HERE.

In this article, I am providing a summary of their Water Supply Forecast Discussion released on March 19, 2024.  The situation has improved but there is a lot of variability. It is not the usual north (dry) to south (wet) pattern that one expects with El Nino but more of a north (dry) center (wet) south (dry) pattern related to the storm track where it is wetter than north or south of the storm track.  It shows up in terms of the Upper versus Lower Colorado Basin. Due to a wet winter last year, the reservoirs are mostly in good shape.

I have also included information on the current BOR reservoir storage levels including some that are outside of the Colorado River Basin. I also provide information on New Mexico which is partly in the Colorado Basin and mostly outside of the Colorado Basin.

The image below shows part of the area covered in the CBRFC Report.  The map shown here is only the Colorado Basin. The Eastern Great Basin is to the west of this map. The maps shown in the article cover both basins but are not as scenic as this map.

Map showing both the Colorado Basin and Eastern Great Basin.

Please click on “Read More” to read the rest of this article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 23, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Mar 23 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Mar 23 2024 – 12Z Mon Mar 25 2024

…Swath of Heavy Snow to impact portions of northern Vermont, New
Hampshire and Maine today…

…Significant Winter Storm likely across parts of the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest; Severe Weather and Critical Fire Risk over Central/Southern
Plains on Sunday...

…Excessive Rainfall concerns along DC to Boston urban corridor today…

A number of low pressure systems will produce unsettled weather across the
East and West Coasts today. In the East, a northern stream system will
bring heavy snow to interior Northeast/northern New England today. Winter
Storm Warnings are in effect from northeastern New York through Vermont,
New Hampshire and Maine where a swath of heavy snow will likely dump
between 6-12 inches with isolated higher amounts through tonight. To the
south, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact the rest
coastal Northeast down to the southern tip of Florida today. A
particularly heavy axis of rainfall is forecast to setup along the I-95
corridor from Washington DC to Boston today where a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect (level 2/4).
Conditions improve across the East Coast on Sunday.

Out West, a potent upper-level low will promote coastal scattered to
isolated thunderstorms and low elevation rain showers, while heavy snow
blankets the Sierra and Shasta Siskiyous today. Snow showers spread into
the Rockies this afternoon. Snowfall totals of 6-12 inches are expected
for the aforementioned areas by the end of the weekend. The upper trough
associated with the unsettled weather in the West will be responsible for
the development of a major winter storm over the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest beginning today.

An extensive and high impact storm system will produce widespread heavy
snow and gusty winds over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest through
early next week. Heavy snow will likely spread across much of central and
eastern Montana tonight, then expand into the Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest on Sunday and continue into Monday. There is a high chance (>70%)
of at least eight inches of snow extending from portions of the Dakotas
and north-central Nebraska northeastward through Minnesota and into
northern Wisconsin. Heavy snow and gusty winds will produce areas of
blowing and drifting snow and possible blizzard conditions Sunday into
Monday. Hazardous travel and road closures are expected late Saturday into
early next week. Strong Winds and heavy, wet snow on trees and power lines
may result in tree damage and power outages. Blustery wind gusts in excess
of 50 mph on Sunday may result in power outages, blowing dust that results
in reduced visibility and damage to property.

There are severe and fire weather concerns within the warm sector of this
dynamic system. There’s a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5)
across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma on Saturday, where large hail and a
few tornadoes will be the main threats. Strong southwesterly flow
beginning today will support an elevated fire weather threat over far
western Texas. Rapid cyclogenesis and strengthening of the Plains winter
storm will lead to increased dry southwesterly flow into the
Central/Southern High Plains behind a well-defined dry line on Saturday.
These conditions will support a Critical Fire Weather threat on Saturday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

For those who may have missed the Seasonal Outlook article yesterday, here is a graphic that covers April and the three months April/May/June. But the Four Season Outlook is likely to have negative impacts for various parts of the U.S. so I recommend that you read the full article which you can access HERE.

But in terms of April and the three-month outlook, the below graphic provides a single graphic summary of the near term. It is the intermediate-term and long-term that is more concerning.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

22Mar2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Close Mixed But Still End With the Best Week So Far This Year

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 305 points or 0.77%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.16%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.14%,
  • Gold $2164 down $19.70,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.25,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.210% down 0.061 points,
  • USD index $104.45 up $1.03,
  • Bitcoin $63,780 down $1,700.
  • Baker-Hughes rig count down 5 to 624

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S. single-family rents posted a 2.6% annual gain in January 2024 according to CoreLogic’s monthly Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI), with Urban Honolulu taking the top sport for growth. However, despite January’s relatively moderate growth in rental costs, prices across the nation are up by almost 30% since early 2020. Molly Boesel, principal economist for CoreLogic stated:

While annual U.S. single-family rent growth was a moderate 2.6% in January, that increase built on years of above-trend annual gains. Furthermore, while rent growth is slowing, costs are still increasing across most of the country. The median rent on a three-bedroom property increased by over $100 in the past year and by more than $500 in the past three years.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Has Urged Ukraine To Stop Attacks on Russian Refineries
  • Russian Diesel in Floating Storage Hits Highest Level Since 2017
  • China Buys Up Russian Oil
  • Will Waning Gasoline Demand Drag Oil Prices Down?
  • Explaining the Market’s Reaction to Jerome Powell’s Speech
  • Oil Industry Executives Say Oil Demand Is Beating Forecasts
  • All Indian Refiners Now Reject Russian Crude Shipped by Sovcomflot Tankers
  • Why a small China-made EV has global auto execs and politicians on edge
  • “We Have Reached A Bottom”: Uranium Poised To Jump Again After 3 Month Correction
  • Trump poised for billions as stock market deal passes

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on March 21, 2024 – Hints of a Possibly Very Strong La Nina Coming: Published March 22, 2024

Updated at 11 p.m. EDT March 22, 2024. Three additional graphics were added plus some additional commentary.

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, there is a fairly rapid transition from El Nino to ENSO Neutral to LaNina. So getting the timing right is very challenging. The potential for a very strong La Nina is discussed but it is not the likely scenario at this point in time. But it seems that the longer-term outlook now factors in both drier conditions in certain parts of the U.S. and wetter conditions on the East Coast and Southeast this summer.

First, Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for April.

It will be updated on the last day of March

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are somewhat different, especially with regard to temperature.  This tells us that May and June will be different than April to some extent.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through April/May/June of 2025 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for April and the three-month period Apr/May/June.  Small maps are provided beyond that through Apr/May/June of 2025 with a link to get larger versions of these maps.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article. In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article.  For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 22, 2024

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Mar 22 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Mar 22 2024 – 12Z Sun Mar 24 2024

…Heavy snow likely for portions of the Lower Great Lakes and interior
Northeast…

…A wet weekend ahead for the East and West Coasts…

…Significant Winter Storm likely across the Northern Plains and into the
Upper Midwest late this weekend into early next week…

A developing low pressure system will produce snow showers across parts of
the Midwest and Upper Great Lakes today. This same system will shift into
the Ohio Valley this evening and dump a swath of heavy snow from downwind
areas of Lake Ontario into much of central/northern New England. Snowfall
totals of 6-12 inches are expected by Sunday morning for those areas.

A second system will track across the Gulf Coast and dump showers and
thunderstorms over the Southeast and into the Mid-Atlantic today/tonight.
Heavy rainfall within scattered to isolated thunderstorms will spread
across the Carolina coast and up the Mid-Atlantic to Northeast urban
corridor where 1-3 inches of rainfall are possible with isolated higher
amounts. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding
(level 2/4) is in effect from southern Maryland and the DC Metro area up
the coast through Philly, NYC and into Boston’s metro on Saturday.

A third system in the Gulf of Mexico will propagate toward the Straits of
Florida where it will stall out later today. Anomalous moisture from the
subtropical Pacific will join with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico to
produce heavy to Excessive Rainfall as well as strong to severe
thunderstorms over extreme southern portions of Florida this afternoon and
evening. Thus, Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) and Severe
Thunderstorms (level 2/5) are in effect for this area.

Elsewhere, a deep low pressure system will bring unsettled weather to the
West this weekend. Heavy rain is likely to focus over coastal areas of
northern California into southern Oregon, while heavy snow develops over
the northern/central Sierra and Shasta Siskiyous. Anywhere between 2-4
feet of snow are likely for those areas with isolated higher amounts
possible. This system will weaken as it moves inland and spreads snow
showers across the Rockies on Saturday. By Sunday, this system will begin
to redevelop over the Front Range into a significant Winter Storm.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

21Mar2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Rally To New Highs Likely Believing Fed Is Not Serious About Its 2% Inflation Target

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 269 points or 0.68%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.20%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.32%,
  • Gold $2192 up $21.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $81 down $0.24,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.271% down 0.001 points,
  • USD index $104.04 up $0.20,
  • Bitcoin $65,220 down $2,633

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey edged down 2 points to 3.2 in March 2024. This is only the index’s fifth positive reading since May 2022. Nearly 24 percent of the firms reported increases in general activity this month, while 21 percent reported decreases; 52 percent reported no change. The index for new orders turned positive for the first time since October, rising from -5.2 in February to 5.4 in March. Historically, this index is an outlier versus other regional fed surveys in that its results are usually higher. I continue to state that manufacturing in the US remains in a recession.

In the week ending March 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 211,250, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 208,000 to 208,750.

Total existing-home sales slid 3.3% year-over-year. The median existing-home price for all housing types in February was $384,500, an increase of 5.7% from the prior year ($363,600). NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

Additional housing supply is helping to satisfy market demand. Housing demand has been on a steady rise due to population and job growth, though the actual timing of purchases will be determined by prevailing mortgage rates and wider inventory choices.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. increased by 0.1 percent in February 2024 to 102.8 (2016=100), following a 0.4 percent decline in January. At least the Conference Board is no longer forecasting a recession. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

The U.S. LEI rose in February 2024 for the first time since February 2022. Strength in weekly hours worked in manufacturing, stock prices, the Leading Credit Index™, and residential construction drove the LEI’s first monthly increase in two years. However, consumers’ expectations and the ISM® Index of New Orders have yet to recover, and the six- and twelve-month growth rates of the LEI remain negative. Despite February’s increase, the Index still suggests some headwinds to growth going forward. The Conference Board expects annualized US GDP growth to slow over the Q2 to Q3 2024 period, as rising consumer debt and elevated interest rates weigh on consumer spending.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Tokyo Tech Scientists Crack Hydrogen Storage Conundrum
  • Taxpayer Money Funds EV Infrastructure Push Despite Slow Adoption
  • Restored Import Tax Hits Russian Coal Sales to China
  • EPA’s New Car Emission Standards Doom the Gasoline Car
  • IEA Chief: No Chance of Hitting Climate Goals Without Nuclear Power
  • European Power Giant Bets on U.S. Despite Possible Trump Presidency
  • Republican Lawmakers Blame IEA for Straying From Energy Security Mission
  • Auto prices are cooling, but ‘we’re never going back to the old normal,’ expert says. Here’s what car shoppers can expect
  • “Freedom Bonds”: US Wants $50BN Bond For Ukraine Backed By Frozen Russian Assets
  • Stock market’s post-Fed rally hides some worry about officials’ commitment to 2% inflation

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.