Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 135 points or 0.35%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.74%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.07%,
• Gold $2,054 down $16.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $1.68,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.024% up 0.161 points,
• USD index $103.92 up $0.87,
• Bitcoin $42,940 down $71 (0.16%),
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -2 to 619 Canada +2 to 232

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 353,000 in January 2024, and the unemployment rate remained at 3.7 percent. Major Job gains occurred in health care (which accounted for almost 1/3 of employment gains), retail trade, and professional and business services. Employment declined in the mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction industry. The household survey shows a decline in employment of 31,000 against an increase in the headline establishment survey of 353,000 (big discrepancy). Another interesting data point is that the labor force declined 175,000. Overall, this should be considered a strong employment report.

New orders for manufactured goods in December 2023 is up 1.4% year-over-year – which aligns with Federal Reserve data for a change. Based on the regional Fed surveys, it appears that the January data should show manufacturing has slipped back into recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Two U.S. Refineries Returning To Service After Emergency Outages
• Iraq Wants to Ditch the U.S. Dollar in Oil Trade
• Oil Poised for Biggest Weekly Loss since November
• Uncertainty in Oil Markets Amid Rumors of a Ceasefire in Gaza
• Meta shares surge 20% on soaring profit, better-than-expected guidance and first-ever dividend
• Here’s where the jobs are for January 2024 — in one chart
• S&P 500 jumps to record, on pace for winning week after strong tech earnings: Live updates
• Bitcoin rises 3% in a week as analysts expect longer-term uptrend: CNBC Crypto World
• U.S. economy added 353,000 jobs in January, much better than expected
• French Shipping Giant Is Latest To Suspend Red Sea Transit, As Details Emerge Of US Destroyer’s ‘Close Call’
• Oil prices post biggest weekly loss since October

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 370 points or 0.97%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.30%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.25%,
• Gold $2,074 up $1.86,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 down $2.03,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.860% down 0.105 points,
• USD index $103.06 down $0.21,
• Bitcoin $42,900 up $287 (0.67%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during December 2023 was is 13.9% above December 2022. Construction is one of the bright spots in the current economy.

U.S.-based employers announced 82,307 job cuts in January, a 136% increase from the 34,817 cuts announced one month prior. It is down 20% from the 102,943 cuts announced in the same month in 2023. With the exception of last January’s total, this is the highest number of job cuts announced in January since January 2009, when 241,749 cuts were announced in the first month of that year.

The ISM Manufacturing PMI registered 49.1 percent in January, up 2 percentage points from the seasonally adjusted 47.1 percent recorded in December. (A Manufacturing PMI^® above 42.5 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index moved into expansion territory at 52.5 percent, 5.5 percentage points higher than the seasonally adjusted figure of 47 percent recorded in December.

4Q2023 nonfarm business sector labor productivity increased 2.7% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) and unit labor costs increased 2.3% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). This is the second quarter that productivity growth has been slightly above the increase in labor costs.

In the week ending January 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 207,750, an increase of 5,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 202,250 to 202,500.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, a seasonally adjusted net 14% of small business owners plan to create new jobs in the next three months, down two points from December and the lowest level since May 2020. Thirty-nine percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down one point from December and the lowest reading since January 2021. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Although consumer spending remains strong, small business owners cannot find enough workers to fill their open positions,” said . “Owners continue to raise compensation to retain and attract workers with the skills and willingness to do the job, but hiring remains a struggle in the tight labor market.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Uranium Prices Soar As World Turns to Nuclear Power
• Oil Prices Drop, Recover on Gaza War Ceasefire Proposal Rumors
• U.S. Prepares for Multi-Day Strikes Against ‘Iranian Targets’
• U.S. Exports of Steam Coal Reached 5-Year High in 2023
• Dow closes more than 350 points higher, Nasdaq jumps 1% in rebound from Fed Day sell-off: Live updates
• Amazon earnings are out — here are the numbers
• Morgan Stanley names Ford its new top pick among U.S. automakers
• Peloton shares plummet 20% as fitness company gives dismal outlook
• U.S. regional banking shares tumble for second straight day
• January hiring was the lowest for the month on record as layoffs surged
• 10-year Treasury yield finishes at lowest level of year as traders weigh litany of risks
• Dow Jones rises 340 points in final hour of trading as U.S. stocks recover from two-day selloff ahead of Big Tech earnings

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 317 points or 0.82%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.23%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.61%,
• Gold $2,053 up $1.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $2.03,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.943% down 0.003 points,
• USD index $103.63 up $0.23,
• Bitcoin $42,501 down $1,100 (2.52%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to ADP, private employers added 107,000 jobs in January 2023 and annual pay was up 5.2 percent year-over-year.. The hiring slowdown of 2023 spilled into January, and pressure on wages continues to ease. The pay premium for job-switchers shrank to a new low last month. ADP has not been a great predictor of BLS jobs growth but honestly I would not bet the farm that any of the data is that accurate. 107,000 jobs growth is not excellent.

The Chicago Business Barometer unexpectedly contracted at an accelerated rate in the month of January 2023. The Chicago business barometer slipped to 46.0 in January from an upwardly revised 47.2 in December, with a reading below 50 indicating a contraction. Another confirmation that manufacturing continues in a recession.

The following statement was issued by the Federal Reserve’s FOMC regarding the Federal Funds Rate: [The bottom line is that the FOMC is saying they will not cut the federal funds rate until they are sure that the inflation rate will reach 2%. IMO, the data is currently showing upward inflation pressures.]

In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The U.S. and Europe Are Rushing To Boost Domestic Uranium Production
• Lithium Producer Sigma Hikes its Brazilian Resource Estimate by 27%
• Only 13 EVs Will Be Eligible for U.S. Tax Credits This Year
• Oil Ticks Lower on Crude Build
• Qatar Awards $6 Billion Worth of Deals to Boost Output from Its Top Oilfield
• Fed Chief Jerome Powell says a March rate cut is not likely
• Dow closes 300 points lower, Nasdaq drops 2% after Fed indicates March rate cut unlikely: Live updates
• Wall Street punishes Alphabet and Microsoft despite earnings beats after stocks hit record
• Meta’s continued rally could hinge on the fortunes of upstart retailers Temu and Shein
• 10-year Treasury yield hovers around 4% as traders evaluate Fed decision
• Boeing chief admits ‘serious challenge’ ahead
• Fed holds interest rates at a 23-year high

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 134 points or 0.35%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.76%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.06%,
• Gold $2,054 up $9.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $1.11,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.045% down 0.046 points,
• USD index $103.41 down $0.02,
• Bitcoin $43,560 up $477 (1.11%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – February 2024 Economic Forecast: Index Again Modestly Declined But Remains Well Above Levels Associated With Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.4%, up from a 4.9% increase in the previous month. CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp stated;

The CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index continued to press higher with home prices increasing by 5.1% year over year in November. Surging mortgage rates in late 2023 started to impact prices in November which declined from the month before, down 0.2% – in contrast to a slight increase seen prior to the pandemic at this time of the year. That suggests pivoting of annual gains over the next few months. Still, home price gains remained resilient in many affordable markets (Detroit) as well as areas with warmer weather and outdoor amenities (Miami and Tampa) – something households seek in winter months. More recent decline in mortgage rates along with continued imbalance between pent-up demand and lacking supply suggest home prices will continue to rise in 2024.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index rose in January to 114.8 (1985=100), up from a revised 108.0 in December. The reading was the highest since December 2021, and marked the third straight monthly increase. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

January’s increase in consumer confidence likely reflected slower inflation, anticipation of lower interest rates ahead, and generally favorable employment conditions as companies continue to hoard labor. The gain was seen across all age groups, but largest for consumers 55 and over. Likewise, confidence improved for all income groups except the very top; only households earning $125,000+ saw a slight dip. January’s write-in responses revealed that consumers remain concerned about rising prices although inflation expectations fell to a three-year low. Buying plans dipped in January, but consumers continued to rate their income and personal finances favorably currently and over the next six months. Consumers’ Perceived Likelihood of a US Recession over the Next 12 Months continued to gradually ease in January, consistent with an Expectations Index rising above 80.

The number of job openings changed little at 9.0 million on the last business day of December. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations were little changed at 5.6 million and 5.4 million, respectively. We should expect little upward pressure on job growth based on current correlations.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• BP Taps Cutting-Edge 4D Seismic Tech to Survey Azerbaijani Oil Field
• Volkswagen Still Seeking Investor for Battery Unit Despite Slower EV Growth
• Tesla Battles to Maintain Market Share in Growing EV Industry
• Economic Concerns and a Strong Supply Outlook Hold Oil Prices Back
• Global Oil Demand Remains Robust Despite Bearish Sentiment
• Trans Mountain Pipeline Hits Yet Another Delay
• Launch of new ETFs may not affect bitcoin the same way they did gold, Citi says. Here’s why
• PayPal will cut about 2,500 jobs, or 9% of global workforce
• UPS announces 12,000 job cuts, says package volume slipped last quarter
• Sky to cut 1,000 jobs in move towards digital
• Number of companies going bust hits 30-year high
• Treasury yields hold steady ahead of Wednesday’s Fed interest-rate policy update

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.