Federal Deficit Spending (Quarterly) and Inflation. Part 1

April 7, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

We have found that the correlation relationships between various types of credit and inflation are variable over time.  So far, the kinds of credit studied are government spending,1 consumer credit,2 mortgage debt,3 nonfinancial corporate credit,4 and financial sector debt.5 Here, we return to federal deficit spending and inflation by analyzing data organized differently than previously used.


The Treasury Department Building in Washington DC. (Public domain, Wikipedia.)

NOAA Sees No Sign of Greenhouse Gases Increases Slowing in 2023 – Posted April 6, 2024

April 6, 2024Posted inClimate1 Comment

Not a surprise but worth keeping track of and it is an interesting summary. I have published Theo Stein’s post in full and added some of my comments in boxes below some of the graphs and I added a paragraph explaining the Keeling Curve.

 

Some may need to click on “Read More” to read the rest of this interesting article

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 6, 2024

April 6, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Apr 06 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Apr 06 2024 – 12Z Mon Apr 08 2024

…Winter Storm to develop over the northern High Plains and nearby
foothills of the Rockies with high winds possible later today into
Sunday…

…Severe thunderstorms possible later today across the central Plains,
shifting toward the Mississippi Valley on Sunday…

…High winds will impact much of the High Plains today, reaching into the
Great Plains on Sunday…

…Critical Fire Weather Risk continues over Central/Southern High
Plains…

…Warm weekend ahead for Central U.S.; East and West Coasts remain below
average…

A low pressure system currently intensifying over the central High Plains
will be the focus of high winds, severe thunderstorms, and snow across the
mid-section of the country for the remainder of the weekend. The
highly-amplified upper trough that has ushered a fresh dose of cold air
into much of the western U.S. will continue to support mountain snow today
from the Great Basin to the Four Corners and up across the northern and
central Rockies. Meanwhile, the tight pressure gradient ahead of a potent
cold front will bring high winds across much of the central and southern
High Plains today. As the low pressure system intensifies further over
the central High Plains, the focus of the snow will gradually lift toward
the northern High Plains by tonight ahead of a nearly stationary front.
The snow is expected to become heavy from near the foothills of the
northern Rockies to the northern High Plains later today and into Sunday.
Anywhere between 6-12 inches of snow is possible with 1-2 feet more likely
at higher elevations (Big Horns, Shirley, Laramie Mountains). The winds
just behind the intense low pressure center will likely become very strong
and gusty, possibly resulting in blizzard conditions in these areas. The
strongest winds could occur near the foothills of northern Colorado where
winds could be damaging at times from Saturday night into early Sunday.
Farther south, the persistently dry downslope winds from the Rockies will
keep fire danger from critical to locally extreme levels across the
central to southern High Plains through the next couple of days.

On the warm side of the system, severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of
the intensifying low pressure system and the associated potent cold front
across the central Plains, mainly later today and into early on Sunday.
Sunday night should see the heavy snow and high winds to begin winding
down across the northern High Plains as the low pressure system weakens
and slowly moves farther to the east. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to expand farther east into the upper Midwest and farther south
into the Mississippi Valley along the cold front.

Meanwhile, more snow showers are expected to continue today from the
central Appalachians up through the lower Great Lakes and interior
Northeast/New England as the circulation of a huge nor’easter will be slow
to exit into the Atlantic. An additional few inches of new snow with
locally up to 6 inches is possible across northern New England today
before sunshine returns on Sunday. High temperatures will remain below
average along the East Coast into Monday morning thanks to the cloudiness.
Meanhwile, a pronounced ridge will support warmer than average
temperatures across the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley this weekend.
In contrast, northern New England will wake up to temperatures in the 20s
Monday morning with clearing skies while southern Texas will be under
considerable cloudiness prior to the total solar eclipse.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

05 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Gapped Up At The Opening Bell, Then Continued To Trend Higher, Closing Moderately Higher In The Green

April 5, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 307 points or 0.80%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.24%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.11%, ( New high 5,265)
  • Gold $2,342 up $33.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $87 up $0.16,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.392% up 0.083 points,
  • USD index $104.30 up $0.180,
  • Bitcoin $67,356 down $1,404 (2.00%), – Historic high 73,798.25
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 620

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – April 2024 Economic Forecast: Economy Marginally Improving But Growth Will Be Weak

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 303,000 in March 2024, and the unemployment rate changed little at 3.8 percent. Significant job gains occurred in health care, government, and construction. The household survey shows 498,000 jobs were added whilst the headline establishment survey shows 303,000 – this begins to lessen the employment gap between the household and establishment surveys which had been growing. And the household survey which is used for the headline unemployment rate added 469,000 people to the labor force [normally this would have caused the unemployment rate to grow but had little effect this month]. This is a very strong jobs report, and works against any reduction in the federal funds rate as the economy is heating up. In the graph below, the establish survey’s job gains are the blue bars whilst the establishment survey is the red bars.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 5, 2024

April 5, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Apr 05 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 05 2024 – 12Z Sun Apr 07 2024

…Wet snow lingers over northern New England into Saturday…

…Widespread mountain snow moves across the interior western U.S…

…High Winds expected to impact the Four Corners today, spreading across
the Rockies and High Plains on Saturday, reaching into the central Plains
by Sunday…

…Severe thunderstorms possible over the central Plains later on Saturday
into early Sunday…

…Critical Fire Risk for central/southern High Plains through this
weekend…

The nor’easter that has been impacting New England with heavy snow inland
and strong winds near the coast will gradually weaken but will take its
time exiting into the Atlantic. Widespread wet snow mixed with rain over
the lower elevations can be expected to continue through today before
becoming more scattered on Saturday. 4-8 inches of new snow may still
accumulate as the parent low lingers nearby. The snow is expected to
taper off to snow showers by Sunday morning as the huge circulation of the
system finally moves farther away into the Atlantic.

Meanwhile, a rather dynamic upper trough along with the associated surface
low pressure system are pushing into the interior western U.S. This
system will bring widespread mountain snow across the Great Basin today,
followed by the northern and central Rockies on Saturday. The potent cold
front trailing south from the low pressure center will likely impact the
Four Corners states with high winds today into tonight as the front
approaches and forcefully passes through the region.
By Saturday, this system will consolidate and quickly intensify as it
emerges over the Front Range. High winds, warm weather and low dew points
will support a critical fire danger over parts of the central and southern
High Plains through at least Sunday. Winds could become especially strong
and potentially damaging near the foothills of the central Rockies
Saturday night into early Sunday right behind the intensifying low
pressure system. Wind-driven rain is forecast to quickly expand across
the central Plains Saturday night into early Sunday around the rapidly
intensifying system, with severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain
possible just ahead of the low center.

With a huge omega upper-level blocking pattern setting up across the U.S.
through the weekend, below average temperatures are expected across the
West and East while above average temperatures will remain over the
central U.S.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

04 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Moderately Higher, Traded Sideways Until 2 PM, Then Fell Sharply, Closing Deep Into The Red

April 4, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 530 points or 1.35%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.40%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.23%,
  • Gold $2,304 down $11.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $87 up $1.12,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.309% down 0.046 points,
  • USD index $104.26 up $0.010,
  • Bitcoin $68,325 up $2.434 (2.72%),

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

U.S.-based employers announced 90,309 job cuts in March 2024, up 7% from the 84,638 cuts announced in February, and virtually the same as (+0.7%) the 89,703 cuts announced in the same month last year. It is the highest monthly total since 102,943 cuts occurred in January 2023, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and leadership development and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. ,” Andy Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:

Layoffs certainly ticked up to round out the first quarter, though below last year’s levels. Many companies appear to be reverting to a ‘do more with less’ approach. While Technology continues to lead all industries so far this year, several industries, including Energy and Industrial Manufacturing, are cutting more jobs this year than last.

March 2024 Challenger Job Cuts Report Chart; Layoffs by month January 2021 - March 2024

February 2024 exports were up 5.9% year-over-year. February imports were up 3.6% year-over-year.. The February increase in the goods and services deficit increased but is still down 1.7% year-over-year. Trade continues to be lower than pre-pandemic levels.

In the week ending March 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 214,250, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 211,000 to 211,500. This is the highest level since 27January2024.

NFIB’s monthly jobs report shows a general slowdown in employment activity for small businesses in March, with a seasonally adjusted net 11% planning to create new jobs in the next three months, down one point from February and the lowest level since May 2020. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg added:

Job openings on Main Street are now in line with the levels before the pandemic. Even with the slowdown in openings, the small business labor market remains tight, and owners continue to compete to retain and recruit employees.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 4, 2024

April 4, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Apr 04 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Apr 04 2024 – 12Z Sat Apr 06 2024

…Heavy snow over Upstate New York, Northern New England, the Sierra
Nevada Mountains, and Central Appalachians on Thursday…

…Moderate to heavy snow over the Northern Intermountain Region on
Friday…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of the
Ohio Valley…

A deep storm over the Great Lakes and the Northeast will slowly move off
the Northeast Coast by Saturday. The system will produce heavy, wet snow
over north-central New England and northeast New York and later spread
north through Maine on Thursday. Snowfall rates then decrease, but snow
continues over Northern New England into Friday. Snowfall accumulations of
1-2 feet are 60 to 70 % likelihood for much of Northern New England and
the northeast part of the Adirondacks. Furthermore, heavy snow will
develop over parts of the Central Appalachians.

The system will create significant impacts from heavy snow and wind. The
combination of heavy snow rates and gusty winds will lead to dangerous
travel conditions, with whiteout conditions and snow-covered roads. The
combination of wet snow, high snow load, and strong wind gusts could also
result in tree damage and power outages.

Moreover, prolonged onshore winds will continue through Thursday,
resulting in moderate coastal flooding for portions of the northern
Mid-Atlantic and Southern New England Coast. Impacts include widespread
roadway flooding, coastal and bayside flooding, impassable roads, and some
damage to vulnerable structures. Snow will linger over the Central
Appalachians through late Friday night, while the snow will linger over
parts of the Northeast from Friday into Saturday morning. The temperatures
will be 10 to 20 degrees below average over parts of the Ohio Valley.
Also, showers and thunderstorms could occur over parts of the Eastern Ohio
Valley through northern Mid-Atlantic on Thursday.

Meanwhile, a front over the Northern High Plains, Great Basin, and
Southern California will move eastward to the Northern/Central/Southern
High Plains by Saturday. The system will create coastal rain and
higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest/Northern
Intermountain Region and Northern California on Thursday morning,
expanding into Central/Southern California Thursday evening into Friday.
Heavy snow will develop over the Sierra Nevada Mountains on Thursday. The
snow will continue over the Northwest through Saturday. Moderate to heavy
snow will develop over the Northern Intermountain Region on Friday. The
snow will linger over the Sierra Nevada Mountains through Saturday, while
the snow moves into the Great Basin, Southwest, and Central/Southern
Rockies Friday evening into Saturday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Above is a 72 hour animation of the forecast. Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

03 Apr 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Fractionally Down, Trended Higher, Closing Mixed

April 3, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 43 points or 0.11%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.23%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.11%,
  • Gold $2,317 up $35.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $86 up $0.42,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.351% down 0.014 points,
  • USD index $104.27 down $0.550,
  • Bitcoin $65,846 down $224 (0.35%)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – March 2024 Economic Forecast: A Modest Improvement In Our Index Predicting Little Change In Main Street Growth

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Private employers added 184,000 jobs in March 2024 and pay for job-stayers rose 5.1% year-over-year
according to ADP. The biggest news was in pay for job-stayers, which jumped to 10 percent. Inflation has been cooling, but our data shows that pay is heating up in both goods and services. Over the past several months, I believe the BLS has been overstating their headline jobs growth numbers as the discrepancy between the establishment and household surveys have been growing – and the AD numbers may be closer to the real gains. In any event, jobs growth gains have been strong which becomes a force against any reduction in the federal funds rate.

In March 2024, the ISM Services PMI® registered 51.4 percent, 1.2 percentage points lower than February’s reading of 52.6 percent. The Business Activity sub-Index registered 57.4 percent in March, which is 0.2 percentage point higher than the 57.2 percent recorded in February. As the US is a service oriented economy, this low reading implies economic slowing.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • The Next Gold Rush: Lithium Surge Creates New Investment Opportunities
  • Breakthrough in OLED Technology Could Revolutionize Tech Displays
  • BofA Sees Summer Oil Price Peak at $95 Per Barrel
  • Gold Prices Have Surged 23.3% in the Last Six Months
  • Oil Moves Higher on Fuel Inventory Draws
  • Xiaomi’s EV Launch Shakes Up China’s Auto Industry
  • Fed’s Powell emphasizes need for more evidence that inflation is easing before cutting rates
  • Dow closes lower for a third day as stocks’ second-quarter woes continue: Live updates
  • Intel drops almost 8% after chipmaker reports hefty loss in foundry business
  • Private payrolls increased by 184,000 in March, better than expected, ADP says
  • Long-term Treasury yields end near November highs after Fed’s Powell delivers economic outlook

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Is ENSO Static? Are they all Alike? Is there a Trend? – Posted on April 3, 2024

April 3, 2024Posted inClimate2 Comments

There was a very interesting blog post on ENSO.Gov that tries to assess this El Nino in the context of other El Ninos and I think they have done a very good job. I have reproduced the blog post in this article. Those who want access to any comments that have been submitted to that blog post can find the post HERE. Remember that all posts on the Climate.Gov ENSO Blog are attributed to the author who in this case is Nat Johnson. All the ENSO Blog posts are excellent. This one is beyond excellent.

The above shows that the current El Nino which is winding down has been pretty close to what would be expected from a typical El Nino. It also shows how both the typical El Nino and the current El Nino compare to Normal or Climatology. You can easily see the differences. The analysis is for the Meteorological Winter months of December through February.

There is a lot more to this blog Post so some readers will need to click on “Read More” to access the rest of this very interesting analysis.  If you accessed this article via the url you will already have the full article and will not need to click on “Read More”.