I have reproduced the body of a Climate.Gov post on this and you can access the full article with comments HERE. But I have reproduced most of the article so you can find it in this article.
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Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Mar 14 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Mar 14 2024 – 12Z Sat Mar 16 2024…Heavy snow through today from the central Rockies, the foothills, and
nearby High Plains before gradually tapering off on Friday……A long-duration event of mountain snow and lower-elevation rain
expected to develop over the Four Corners region beginning on Friday……Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall expected to push southward
from the east-central Plains this morning to the Arklatex region on
Friday, and into southeastern Texas by Saturday morning……Very mild/warm weather expands eastward from the central to the eastern
U.S. going into the weekend…An amplifying upper-level trough continues to dig southward into the
western U.S. Moisture lifted ahead of the upper trough within a cold air
mass is producing heavy snow across the central Rockies early this
morning. As the cold air continues to filter southward, the rain that
initially falls over the lower elevations is forecast to change over to
heavy wet snow. The heaviest snow is forecast to be along the Front
Range of Colorado where a few feet of snow could accumulate. Lesser
amounts are expected in adjacent areas but one to two feet of wet snow can
be expected down into the Foothills and High Plains such as Boulder and
Denver, Colorado. Hazardous to very difficult travel is expected as heavy
snow and intense snow rates at times (1-2 inches plus per hour) will lead
to hazardous travel conditions.By tonight into Friday, the main upper-level low is forecast to dip
further south into the Desert Southwest. Snow across the central
Rockies/High Plains is expected to gradually taper off as the dynamics of
the low move farther south. However, the Four Corners region will be
under the most favorable region for precipitation to form and expand
beginning on Friday as the upper low is forecast to meander over the
region. Mountain snow and lower elevation rain are expected to linger
over the Four Corners region going into the weekend.On the warm side of the system, a low pressure system is developing over
the central Plains and tracking toward the Midwest. Influx of warm and
moist air from the Gulf of Mexico has
organized strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of a warm front. These
thunderstorms containing heavy rainfall are forecast to push southward
from the east-central Plains this morning to the Arklatex region on
Friday, and into southeastern Texas by Saturday morning near or just
behind an advancing cold front. Meanwhile, the low pressure system will
bring widespread rainfall across the southern half of the Great Lakes
today, spreading into New England tonight into Friday. The rain will
likely mix with wet snow across interior New England on Friday before the
system steadily moves off the coast early on Saturday.As the winter storm develops over the western U.S., much of the eastern
U.S. will enter an extended period of very warm and pleasant weather.
High temperatures in the 60s and 70s from the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic states will be 20-25 degrees above normal for this time of
year. However, a cold front from Canada is forecast to rapidly dip into
the northern Plains by early on Saturday. This cold front will signal the
beginning of a rapid cooling trend forecast to head toward the East Coast
thereafter.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
Employer costs for employee compensation for civilian workers averaged $45.42 per hour worked in December 2023, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Wages and salaries averaged $31.29, while benefit costs averaged $14.13.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Mar 13 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Mar 13 2024 – 12Z Fri Mar 15 2024…Heavy snow develops over central Colorado Wednesday night into Thursday
followed by rain/mountain snow across the Four Corners to the southern
High Plains Thursday into Friday……Strong to severe thunderstorms possible from the Midwest to the
southern Plains from this evening into Thursday……Strong to severe thunderstorms with a slight risk of excessive rainfall
expected Thursday evening into early Friday from the southern Plains to
the Mid-South...An amplifying upper-level trough digging into the western U.S. is
gradually pushing the unsettled weather out of the Pacific Northwest into
the Intermountain region. The interaction of the upper trough with colder
air filtering southward is setting the stage for a long-duration snow
event from the central Rockies and down into the Four Corners over the
course of the next few days. The precipitation will first be focused over
the central Rockies from this evening into Thursday when wet snow is
forecast to be the heaviest across the Front Range of Colorado where a few
feet of new snow could fall. Lesser amounts are expected in adjacent
areas but one to two feet of wet snow is possible down into the High
Plains at locations such as Boulder and Denver, Colorado. Hazardous to
very difficult travel is expected as heavy snow and intense snow rates at
times (1-2 inches plus per hour) will lead to deteriorating travel
conditions beginning Wednesday and Wednesday night across the
central/southern Rockies and beginning across the Four Corners region
Thursday night.A second phase of the winter storm will then impact the Four Corners
Region beginning Thursday night, as the upper trough closes off into a
slow-moving upper low. Waves of heavy snow will impact the terrain areas
north of the Mogollon Rim and northeast toward the San Juans and southern
Colorado Rockies. Snow probabilities for 8 inches are moderate to high
(greater than 50%). Localized totals above a foot are possible for the
higher terrain.On the warm side of the system, low relative humidity and gusty winds will
continue to raise the danger of wildfires to locally extreme levels from
the Texas Panhandle to western Texas today. The dry environment in the
Plains states will initially limit the formation of showers and some
thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest.
However, as a low pressure system develops and tracks across the central
Plains towards the Midwest, influx of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is
forecast to organize an area of enhanced rainfall across Arkansas and
neighboring areas Thursday evening into early Friday when severe weather
is possible. The heavy rain and severe weather threat will then shift
northeast toward Tennessee by Friday morning as the trailing cold front
associated with the low pressure system approaches from the west. The low
pressure system itself will bring widespread moderate to locally heavy
rain with a slight threat of severe weather across the Midwest tonight,
followed by the southern half of the Great Lakes on Thursday, and into New
England Friday morning. The rain may mix with wet snow over the upper
Midwest tonight and over interior New England Friday morning.As the winter storm develops over the western U.S., much of the eastern
U.S. will enter an extended period of very warm and pleasant weather.
High temperatures in the 60s and 70s from the Ohio Valley to the
Mid-Atlantic states will be 20-25 degrees above normal for this time of
year.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 3.2% year-over-year in February 2024 before seasonal adjustment – this is up from 3.1% the previous month. The all items less food and energy index rose 3.8% over the last 12 months – slightly down from the 3.9% of the previous month. Note that the Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as its primary measure of inflation – and this index will be released later this month. My position is that there are forces that will not allow inflation to fall further toward the Federal Reserve’s target rate of 2.0%. Indexes that increased in February include shelter, airline fares, motor vehicle insurance, apparel, and recreation. The index for personal care and the index for household furnishings and operations were among those that decreased over the month.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Mar 12 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Mar 12 2024 – 12Z Thu Mar 14 2024…One more day of unsettled weather across the Pacific Northwest and
northern California before the precipitation gradually tapers off on
Wednesday……Mountain snows spreading into the northern and central Rockies on
Wednesday before heavy snow develops over central Colorado Wednesday
night……Fire danger across the southern High Plains will be followed by chance
of severe thunderstorms across the north-central Plains later on Wednesday
as rain may change over to wet snow in the nearby High Plains……Anomalously warm temperatures to expand eastward from the Upper Midwest
into the Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast through Wednesday…A gradual shift in the large-scale upper-level pattern across the U.S.
will bring unsettled weather that has been impacting the Pacific Northwest
in recent days progressively eastward into the central U.S. by Wednesday
night. The final in a series of Pacific fronts and low pressure systems
will push onshore into the West Coast today, bringing additional mountain
snow and lower-elevation rain with one to possibly two feet of new snow
along the Cascades. As the main upper trough presses eastward through the
western U.S. the next couple of days, areas along the West Coast will have
a chance to gradually dry out on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the main batch of
moisture will penetrate farther inland in the form of mountain snow
pushing into the northern to central Rockies on Wednesday. The upper
trough will also help develop a low pressure system over the central High
Plains on Wednesday. The interaction of the upper trough with the
intensifying low pressure system will begin to organize and focus an area
of moderate to heavy snow over central Colorado by early on Thursday. By
Thursday morning, snow could be falling in earnest over the mountainous
terrain into the Front Range and nearby High Plains of central Colorado.On the warm side of the low pressure system, low relative humidity and
gusty winds will continue to raise the danger of wildfires across central
to southern High Plains today, followed by a more southward focus from the
Texas Panhandle to western Texas on Wednesday. The dry environment in the
Plains states will initially limit the formation of showers and some
thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest today
into early on Wednesday. However, as the low intensifies, influx of
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico is forecast to organize an area of
enhanced rainfall over the vicinity of Nebraska Wednesday night as the
storm center passes just to the southeast. Some of the enhanced rainfall
could be accompanied with severe weather. In addition, there is a
possibility that the western portion of the enhanced rainfall would change
over to wet snow early on Thursday if additional cold air wraps around the
storm center.Across the eastern U.S., the departure of a strong surface low near Nova
Scotia into the western Atlantic will allow the gusty winds to moderate
further across the northern Mid-Atlantic and Northeast today. Breezy
conditions are likely to remain for northern New England into Tuesday
night, but overall improvement is expected. High pressure over the
southern U.S. will slide eastward over the next couple of days, allowing
winds to return from the south, bringing warmer temperatures northward.
The greatest departures from normal highs will remain over the Upper
Midwest and Great Lakes region on Tuesday which may cause a few record
daily maximum temperatures to be broken, but the magnitude of the
anomalous warmth is likely to be lower on today compared to Monday. High
temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s will expand eastward through
Wednesday across the Ohio Valley and portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic
into the Northeast, roughly 15 to 25 degrees above mid-March averages.
With the warmer weather will come the threat for thunderstorms across
portions of the central U.S. Some severe thunderstorms will be possible
ahead of a dryline from eastern Oklahoma/Kansas into western Missouri on
Tuesday with a broader risk across some of these same areas on Wednesday.
Again, the prevailing dry environment will initially limit the intensity
of the storms.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
No releases today
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Mar 11 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Mar 11 2024 – 12Z Wed Mar 13 2024…Heavy wet snow will continue into the morning hours on Monday across
the higher elevations of the northern New England and portions of the
lower Great Lakes……Unsettled weather is expected to persist across the Pacific Northwest
and into the northern Rockies with multiple rounds of lower-elevation rain
and higher elevation snow……Fire danger to increase across the central and southern High Plains
from very dry conditions, gusty winds, and warm temperatures…A deep low pressure system centered over Downeast Maine early this morning
will be slow to move away into the Canadian Maritimes. The ongoing heavy
wet snow associated with this system is expected to linger across the
higher terrain from the Adirondacks of New York, up across the Green and
White Mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire respectively. Meanwhile, the
cold air pouring southeast over the lower Great Lakes will sustain heavy
lake-effect snow shower activity with squalls locally across upstate New
York into the morning of today before they gradually taper off during the
afternoon. The snow will likely taper off to snow showers and flurries by
tonight across northern Maine. Nevertheless, the strong and gusty winds
are expected to persist into Tuesday as the large circulation of the low
pressure system will take time to depart.In the wake of the low pressure system, a large dome of high pressure will
build across the South and into the Southeast while taking its time to
slide off into the Atlantic. Temperatures over the next couple of days
will be well above normal especially across the central and northern
Plains and the Midwest before gradually advancing into the Great Lakes and
Ohio Valley. The return of dry weather coupled with increasingly gusty
winds and low relative humidity will promote an increased risk of
wildfires. In fact, the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted large
areas of the central and southern High Plains in an elevated to critical
fire danger area. This will include the panhandles of Texas and Oklahoma
where devastating fires occurred a couple weeks ago.Meanwhile across the Pacific Northwest, multiple low pressure systems
arriving from the Pacific will bring frequent rounds of precipitation
onshore and then farther inland into the northern Rockies through the next
couple of days. Moderate to locally heavy rain is expected for the coastal
ranges with heavy snow over the higher elevations of the Cascades,
northern Sierra Nevada, and the Sawtooth, Bitterroot, and Teton ranges of
the northern Rockies. The Cascades will likely receive the heaviest
snowfall totals where as much as 1 to 2 feet of new snow can be expected.Temperatures are expected to begin rebounding rather quickly for much of
the East and the South by later Tuesday as milder air from the Plains and
Midwest advances east together with warm air beginning to return north
from the Gulf of Mexico. High temperatures across portions of eastern
South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and Wisconsin are forecast to be as much as
30 to 40 degrees above normal on today and Tuesday with temperatures
approaching or locally exceeding 70 degrees. Some cities will likely be
warm enough to see their daily high temperature records either tied or
broken today.Meanwhile, a cooling trend is expected across the western U.S. as colder
air associated with an upper trough pushes inland to bring moderate to
locally heavy mountain snow into the central Rockies by early Wednesday
while the West Coast begins to dry out. Farther east, a low pressure
system is forecast to develop over the central to southern High Plains
Tuesday night. The dry environment in the vicinity will initially limit
the formation of showers and some thunderstorms across the mid-Mississippi
Valley into the Midwest early on Wednesday. Some light snow could brush
the northern Plains near Canadian border early Wednesday ahead of a
clipper system.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Mar 10 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Mar 10 2024 – 12Z Tue Mar 12 2024…Locally heavy rains are expected to sweep across coastal New England
early today with gusty winds……Heavy wet snow and strong winds are expected across northern New
England through today followed by lake-effect snows across the lower Great
Lakes into Monday morning……Unsettled weather is expected to persist across the Pacific Northwest
and into the northern Rockies with multiple rounds of lower-elevation rain
and higher elevation snow…An intensifying low pressure system that brought another round of moderate
to heavy rain across the northern Mid-Atlantic to New England Saturday
night into Sunday morning will continue to track northeast through coastal
New England. Colder air wrapping around the expanding storm will support
heavy wet snow today across northern New England, especially over the
higher elevations of upstate New York, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine
where winter storm warnings are in effect. As much as 6 to 12 inches of
heavy wet snow can be expected in these areas along with increasingly
strong and gusty winds. Meanwhile, much of the East Coast will be drying
out today after yesterday’s rainfall but blustery winds from the northwest
will usher in chilly air. The cold air passing over the relatively warm
waters of the Great Lakes will promote lake-effect snow showers and
localized snow squalls downwind from the lower Great Lakes toward the
central Appalachians today. The snow showers are expected to linger into
Monday but they will gradually taper off as the huge storm will take some
time to move farther away into the Canadian Maritimes.In the wake of the huge storm circulation, a large high pressure system
will take over and provide a few days of tranquil and dry weather from the
Four Corners eastward through the Great Plains and for the entire eastern
U.S. Cool and dry weather will prevail across the South and the Southeast
including Florida. A warming trend will set in across the northern Plains
today as southerly winds and downslope flow help expanding the warmth
eastward into the upper Midwest by Tuesday when some daily record high
temperatures are possible.Meanwhile across the Pacific Northwest, multiple low pressure systems
arriving from the Pacific will bring frequent rounds of precipitation
onshore and then farther inland through the next couple of days. Moderate
to locally heavy rain is expected for the coastal ranges with heavy snow
over the higher elevations of the Cascades, northern Sierra Nevada, and
the Sawtooth and Bitterroot range of the northern Rockies. The heaviest
snows should be over the Washington Cascades going through Monday where 1
to 2 feet of new snow can be expected.
We have found that the correlation relationships between various types of credit and inflation are variable over time. So far, the kinds of credit studied are government spending,1 consumer credit,2 mortgage debt,3 and nonfinancial corporate credit.4 Here, we address another category of credit spending, Financial Sector Debt (FSD). This series studies the correlation between changes in Financial Sector Debt and CPI inflation.
Photo by Chenyu Guan on Unsplash.