03 Jun 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Higher On First Day Of June Trading, Dow Falls On Concerns of Inflation And A Slowing Economy, Indexes Closed Mixed

June 3, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 115 points or 0.30%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.56%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.11%,
  • Gold $2,366 up $20.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.99,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.402 down 0.110 points,
  • USD index $104.12 down $0.55,
  • Bitcoin $69,192 up 1,457 or 2.15%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

One of the economic bright spots in the economy is beginning to slow – but remains high historically. Construction spending during April 2024 declined to 10.0% year-over-year from last month’s  10.5%. Both public and private sector construction declined.

The Institute of Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI® registered 48.7% in May 2024, down 0.5 percentage point from the 49.2% recorded in April. A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.5%, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory, registering 45.4%, 3.7 percentage points lower than April. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 42.4%, down 3 percentage points in April.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 3, 2024

June 3, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Jun 03 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Jun 03 2024 – 12Z Wed Jun 05 2024

…Excessive Rainfall and Severe Weather threaten portions of the
Mississippi Valley and Southern Plains today…

…Increasing Excessive Heat Risk potential over parts of the West and
southern Texas through mid-week…

Shortwave energy spinning through the Northwest will support showers and
thunderstorm activity across the region today. Rainfall rates over the
favored terrain of the Cascades and Northern Rockies will be high enough
to warrant an Excessive Rainfall threat. Thus, a Slight Risk (at least
15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for
portions of the Northern Rockies, while a Marginal Risk (at least 5%) area
is in place over the Cascades, Olympics and Seattle Metro area. Elsewhere,
showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue over parts of the Great
Plains and Mississippi Valley today. Pockets of severe thunderstorms
capable of producing heavy to excessive rainfall may develop over parts of
the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Slight Risks of Excessive
Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms are in effect over those areas, where a
swath of damaging wind gusts are possible. The severe thunderstorm threat
concentrates over parts of the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi
Valley on Tuesday, where a Slight Risk is in effect. Large hail is
possible at the outset when storms are more cellular, but will then be
followed by a congealing of cells into a line of storms with damaging wind
gusts eventually being the main threat.

An upper ridge is expected to develop over the West early to mid-week.
High temperatures will gradually climb into 100s by Wednesday and Thursday
with many records potentially being tied or broken on those days.
Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for the central valley region of
California while Excessive Heat Watches are in effect for parts of the
Desert Southwest. Extreme HeatRisk is probable to continue for much of
southern Texas through Wednesday. This level of heat risk means that there
will likely be little to no overnight relief for those without effective
cooling and/or adequate hydration.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

The China/Russia Axis

June 2, 2024Posted inopinionNo Comments

While the West has greatly assisted Ukraine against Russia’s aggression, China has substantially supported Russia despite China’s professed strong attachment to the principle of national sovereignty. How can we understand the China/Russia axis? How solid is this partnership? What does the future hold?


Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping, Wikipedia, CC BY 4.0

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 2, 2024

June 2, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jun 02 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Jun 02 2024 – 12Z Tue Jun 04 2024

…Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms possible over portions of
the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley…

…Heavy to Excessive Rainfall possible across parts of the Northwest
through Monday…

…Increasing Excessive Heat threat over parts of California, Nevada and
Arizona…

A series of shortwaves will be responsible for Excessive Rainfall and
Severe Thunderstorms that develop across the Great Plains and Mississippi
Valley over the next few days. Today, showers and isolated thunderstorms
will spread from the High Plains into the Mississippi Valley. Some storms
may turn severe. The Storm Prediction Center issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms across portions of the Central High
Plains this afternoon and evening. Very large hail, severe wind gusts
greater than 75 mph, and a few tornadoes are expected. Rain rates in some
of those storms could be high enough to cause flash flooding which is why
there’s a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall over parts of
the Northern/Central Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley.

Elsewhere, a deep upper low will transport anomalous tropical Pacific
moisture into the Northwest today. Excessive Rainfall is naturally a
concern over the favorable terrain of the Cascades, Bitterrroots, Salmon
River Mountains as well as the Seattle metro, where Slight Risks (at least
15%) are in effect through Monday. Monday will be a Marginal Risk kind of
day for Excessive Rainfall and Severe Thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern/Central Plains and Mississippi Valley. Cloudy/cooler conditions
will prevail over the Northwest thanks to the Atmospheric River event set
to unfold over the next couple of days. Otherwise, the Great Plains and
Northeast are likely to experience above average temperatures this week.
Abnormal heat is expected to expand across parts of the West mid-week.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

NOAA Updates its Mid-month Outlook for June, 2024 -Posted on June 1, 2024

June 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is June of 2024. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for June and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading.  We provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for June for comparison. It is easy to see the changes by comparing the Mid-Month and Updated Maps.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for June. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal (JJA) Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the June Drought Outlook. We have included a map showing the water-year-to-date precipitation in the Western States. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.  We also include a very interesting ENSO Blog Post.

The best way to understand the updated outlook for June is to view the maps and read the NOAA discussion. I have highlighted the key statements in the NOAA Discussion.

I am going to start with graphics that show the updated Outlook for June and the Mid-Month Outlook for June. This is followed by a graphic that shows both the Updated Outlook for June and the previously issued three-month outlook for JJA 2024. So you get the full picture in three graphics.

Here is the updated Outlook for June 2024.

For Comparison Purposes, Here is the earlier Mid-Month Outlook for June.

It is important to remember that the maps show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term climatology.

It is a substantial change from what was issued on May 16, 2024. Remember, it is the first set of maps that are the current outlook for June.  One expects some changes  15 days later. However, the changes to the June Outlook are significant.  This then gives us some reason to question the (May 16, 2024) three-month JJA temperature and precipitation Outlooks which are shown in the following graphic.

NOAA provided a combination of the Updated Outlook for June and the Three-Month Outlook.

The top pair of maps are again the Updated Outlook for the new month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The bottom row shows the three-month outlooks which include the new month. I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory.

To the extent that one can rely on a forecast, we would conclude that July and August will be very different than June, especially for temperature. You can basically subtract June, the three-month Outlook and divide by two to get a combined July-August Outlook.

However given the major change in the new June outlook from what was issued on May 16,  2024, we might not trust the Seasonal Outlook issued on May 16, 2024. Something to think about.

Some readers may need to click “Read More” to read the rest of the article.  Some will feel that they have enough information. But there is a lot more information in the rest of this article.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 1, 2024

June 1, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jun 01 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 01 2024 – 12Z Mon Jun 03 2024

…Excessive Rainfall threatens parts of the Central/Southern Plains,
Southeast and Mississippi/Ohio Valleys today…

…Severe Weather refocuses over the Great Plains this weekend…

…Southern Texas remains warmer than average through early next week…

A sequence of shortwave energies will support impactful weather across the
Central U.S. this weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will organize ahead
of a low pressure system over the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and
spread into the Southeast this morning and afternoon. Some storms may be
strong enough to produce heavy rainfall. A Slight Risk (at least 15%) of
Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in effect for portions of
Tennessee, Mississippi and Alabama today. Meanwhile, some dry-line storms
could turn severe over parts of the Central/Southern High Plains this
afternoon. The Storm Prediction Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of
Severe Thunderstorms for the aforementioned areas with supercells possibly
organizing into clusters and spreading into the Plains tonight. Severe
wind, hail and brief tornadoes are possible.

Another low pressure system emerging from the Rockies will bring a renewed
threat of severe weather to the Northern/Central Plains and Upper Midwest
on Sunday. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms is in effect
from southeastern North Dakota to western Minnesota and down into central
Nebraska, where a line of severe storms may produce damaging wind gusts
and hail could be the main severe threats. There’s also a Slight Risk (at
least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over parts of
southern Minnesota, southeastern South Dakota, eastern Nebraska and Iowa
on Sunday.

Deep upper-level troughing will bring rain and cooler temperatures to the
Pacific Northwest on Sunday. Temperatures will remain above average across
southern Texas, while warmer conditions expand across the Great Plains
through early next week. Approaching shortwave energy and an upper low
locked in just off the Northeast Coast will support warmer than average
temperatures over the Northeast for the next several days.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

31 May 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Last Half Hour Pushes Equities Sky Rocketing Into The Green With The Nasdaq Down And Flat

May 31, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 575 points or 1.51%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.01%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.80,
  • Gold $2,348 down $18.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $0.80,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.506 down 0.046 points,
  • USD index $104.63 down $0.09,
  • Bitcoin $67,651 down a change of -0.99% of over past 24 hours,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real (inflation adjusted) Disposable Personal Income (DPI) declined significantly from 1.3% year-over-year in March to 1.0% year-over-year in April 2024. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) [view this as what builds GDP] declined from 2.8% year-over-year in March to 2.6% year-over-year in April 2024. The PCE price index [the preferred inflation metric of the Federal Reserve] as little changed at 2.7% year-over-year – this is not good news for those who believed inflation was going away. Overall, the economy seems to be going through a soft patch.

The latest Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index (Chicago Business Barometer) fell to 35.4 in May 2024 from 37.9 in April. This is the sixth straight monthly decline and the lowest level for the index since May 2020. The Chicago PMI is viewed as a window to the national PMI which will be released next week.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 31, 2024

May 31, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri May 31 2024
Valid 12Z Fri May 31 2024 – 12Z Sun Jun 02 2024

…Severe Weather and Excessive Rainfall potential across mid-section of
the country this weekend…

…Heat Risk continues over far southern Texas…

Southern stream shortwave energy will be the catalyst for severe
thunderstorm and excessive rainfall potential across parts of the Central
U.S. this weekend. Today a complex of thunderstorms will propagate from
the Central/Southern High Plains across northern and eastern Texas,
followed by another round of storms which will develop and move into parts
of Arkansas and southern Missouri this evening. The Storm Prediction
Center issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of Severe Thunderstorms for these
events with wind damage and an isolated tornado being the main hazard
threats. Isolated large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible over
the Central High Plains. There’s also a Slight Risk (at least 15%) of
Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding over portions of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Oklahoma/Texas. There’s still
plenty of uncertainty as to where exactly storms will initiate and be most
impactful.

The focus for showers and thunderstorms shifts into the Lower Mississippi
and Ohio Valleys on Saturday. Another complex of storms may propagate into
the central Gulf Coast beginning in the morning. Some of these storms may
be efficient enough rain producers to warrant another Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall over much of Mississippi and Alabama. The Storm
Prediction Center has another Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms along
the Central to Southern High Plains where supercells capable of producing
severe wind, hail and a couple of brief tornadoes could impact the region
Saturday afternoon.

Elsewhere, heat risk continues to be a concern over south Texas through
the weekend. Convection over the Central U.S. will lead to below average
high temperatures today. Troughing in the West will support above average
temperatures across much of the region this weekend. A deep upper-level
low will arrive over the Pacific Northwest on Sunday, bringing with it the
potential for heavy rainfall

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

30 May 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Gapped Sharply Lower At The Opening Bell, Nasdaq And The S&P 500 Waterfalled From The Opening Trade, While The Dow Traded Sideways, All Closing Near Session Lows

May 30, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 330 points or 0.86%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.08%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.60%,
  • Gold $2,361 down $2.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $1.34,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.548 down 0.076 points,
  • USD index $104.77 down $0.330,
  • Bitcoin $68,564 up, a change of 1.02% over past 24 hours

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

CoreLogic’s Loan Performance Insights for March 2024 measures early-stage delinquency rates. In March 2024, 2.8% of mortgages were delinquent by at least 30 days or more including those in foreclosure. This represents a 0.2 percentage point change in the overall delinquency rate compared with March 2023. Molly Boesel, Principal Economist for CoreLogic stated:

The U.S. delinquency rate increased from a year earlier in March, driven by an uptick in early-stage delinquencies. Further, the early-stage delinquency rate remained flat from February to March this year, while it typically falls between those months, as many borrowers receive income tax refunds in March. While monthly changes in the early-stage delinquency rate can be volatile, this break from the seasonal trend comes at a time when household budgets are strained by still-high inflation.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) second estimate increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2024 – in the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.6%. I prefer to view the year-over-year change which is now up 2.9% year-over-year. The update primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending. In the fourth quarter of 2023, real GDP increased 3.4%. The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 3.0% in the first quarter, a downward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the previous estimate. The bottom line for the second estimate is the economy was weaker but inflation was improved.

In the week ending May 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 222,500, an increase of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 219,750 to 220,000. There is no indication of a slowing economy.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)* – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – decreased to 72.3 in April 2024. Year over year, pending transactions were down 7.4%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

The impact of escalating interest rates throughout April dampened home buying, even with more inventory in the market. But the Federal Reserve’s anticipated rate cut later this year should lead to better conditions, with improved affordability and more supply.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Today Through the Fourth Friday (22 to 28 days) Weather Outlook for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 30, 2024

May 30, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu May 30 2024
Valid 12Z Thu May 30 2024 – 12Z Sat Jun 01 2024

…More active weather across the mid sections of the nation, with
additional rounds of thunderstorms, heavy rains, flash flooding and severe
weather…

…Heat to continue across the Southwest to South Texas and much of
Florida, while building across the inland valleys of California…

…Cooler than average temperatures for the Plains and large portions of
the eastern U.S. through early this weekend…

A tumultuous weather pattern sparking several rounds of robust
thunderstorms is set to continue throughout much of the central and
south-central United States. The atmospheric ingredients in play for the
next serving of severe weather include an upper trough with embedded
shortwaves crossing the Rockies today, multiple frontal boundaries draped
across the Great Plains, and ample atmospheric moisture content lifting
northward from the western Gulf of Mexico. Additionally, a reemerging
dryline over the southern High Plains will help spark strong storms this
afternoon that are forecast to progress eastward tonight over the southern
Plains. These thunderstorms may contain large hail and damaging wind
gusts, with the locations most likely impacted including the Texas
Panhandle and parts of west Texas. A broader threat for isolated severe
weather stretches throughout a majority of the central and southern
Plains. Intense rainfall rates are also possible and can lead to flash
flooding where storm motions are slow. Currently, the scattered flash
flood threat includes much of the central/southern Plains and ArkLaTex
region. The active weather and clusters of redeveloping thunderstorms are
then forecast to gradually slide eastward on Friday as an area of low
pressure pushes across the Red River Valley of the South. Additional
chances for damaging wind gusts and large hail exists across central and
eastern Texas, as well as into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash
flooding also remains a concern for the last day of May across the
southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Wet weather is anticipated
to expand to start the weekend, but with less focus for severe weather as
thunderstorm chances stretch from the Ohio/Tennessee valleys to the Great
Plains.

Storminess over the central U.S. will keep high temperatures below average
to end the week, while a potent high pressure system over the Lower Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley also offers refreshing afternoon temperatures in the
70s for large sections of the Eastern United States. Summer heat will be
continue to be found across the Southwest and Southern Tier. Muggy highs
into the mid-90s are forecast across the central/southern Florida
Peninsula until a cold front enters on Saturday and offers some much
needed relief in the form of persistent northeasterly flow. Upper 90s and
low 100s are anticipated to stretch from the Southwest to far western and
southern Texas through the weekend. Heat will actually build further north
into the Great Basin and interior California valleys as well, but not
quite warm enough to approach daily records. If spending time outdoors in
these regions, be sure to follow proper heat safety.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.