Nobel-Prize-winning economist Sir Angus Deaton is deeply concerned about the darkening of American society and the increasing “deaths of despair,” factors that are driving populism and isolationism.
Angus Deaton, 2015, from Wikipedia, Bengt Nyman, CC BY-SA 4.0.
The Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, or JAMSTEC, is a Japanese national research institute for marine-earth science and technology
From the JAMSTEC Discussion:
“The most recent observations indicate that the El Niño is now almost over, and there are weak signs of a La Niña. The SINTEX-F ensemble mean predicts that a La Niña Modoki will develop in the boreal autumn. However, there is a large uncertainty in the occurrence timing and amplitude.”
Although it is a World forecast, it includes a forecast for North America since North America is part of the World. One might try to compare it to the NOAA Outlook we published yesterday which can be accessed HERE.
First, we take a look at the forecasted sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA). JAMSTEC starts by forecasting the SSTA and Nino 3.4 Index on the first day of the month and from there it usually takes their models about two weeks to produce their seasonal forecast. I received it from JAMSTEC on May 14 close to when NOAA issued their Seasonal Update this month. The JAMSTEC model runs are based on conditions as of June 1, 2024. The NOAA Seasonal Outlook is based on conditions closer to the time when it was issued.
We do not have a full three-season forecast from JAMSTEC this month. We have forecast maps for JAS, SON and DJF so it is really an eight-month forecast as JAS and SON overlap a bit. For each of these three-month Outlooks, I also show the corresponding NOAA Outlook. The two are remarkably similar which is very unusual.
We also have single-month forecasts for July, August and September 2024. I have a single-month outlook for July from NOAA but not single-month outlooks for August and September so I did not show those comparisons.
Let’s take a look.
| This shows their forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies at three points in time. Blue is cold and is associated with La Nina if it occurs in the Nino 3.4 measurement areas. You no longer can see the El Nino tongue of warm water extending from Peru to the west in the JAS image but look at that blob of cool (anomaly) water to the west i.e. by this point in time this has Modoki characteristics that impact the Walker circulation. SON and DJF also show La Nina but are increasingly to the west and may not be in the Nino 3.4 measurement area. I have written about that before. It raises questions about the reliability of our current approach to thinking about the ENSO Cycle. This is covered in another article that can be accessed HERE. But JAMSTEC is showing a relatively normal ocean off the coast of much of the U.S. coasts which probably explains their forecast.
Of interest also is the cold water of the West Coast of the U.S. and the warm water between Africa and the north coast of South America. JAMSTEC uses the same definition of Normal (climatology) as NOAA. JAMSTEC does a better job at characterizing La Ninas and El Ninos than NOAA. JAMSTEC provides me with a lot of other information that I do not include in my articles to keep them to a manageable size for readers. That material is the atmospheric pressure patterns. |
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Jun 22 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Jun 22 2024 – 12Z Mon Jun 24 2024…Heat wave focus shits from the Midwest/Ohio Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic states this weekend...…Heavy rain and flash flooding concerns across the Upper Great
Lakes/Mississippi Valley Saturday and northern New England Sunday……Heat building across the West this weekend, monsoon-like conditions for
the Desert Southwest…A heat wave will continue over much of the eastern U.S. south of a
quasi-stationary boundary and under the influence of longwave ridging
aloft this weekend. Forecast high temperatures Saturday will generally be
in the mid- to upper 90s from the central/southern Plains to the East
Coast. These temperatures remain the most anomalous and dangerous for
early Summer over portions of the Midwest/Ohio Valley east to the
Mid-Atlantic. Heat-related advisories and warnings are in place as
humidity will bring heat index values as high as the mid-100s. A potent
upper-level shortwave will help to finally push the boundary southward
Sunday, bringing welcome relief to much of the Midwest/Ohio Valley, while
the Mid-Atlantic continues to simmer. Numerous record-tying/breaking highs
are possible. In addition, overnight low temperatures will remain to the
mid- and even upper 70s, providing little relief from the heat overnight.
The combination of this heat coming early in the Summer season and
persisting over several days increases the level of heat stress for those
without reliable air conditioning.Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to the north along the
quasi-stationary boundary draped from New England west through the Great
Lakes and into the Upper Mississippi Valley. Plentiful moisture will
increase the chance for locally heavy downpours. The highest chance for
potentially significant heavy rainfall will be along the boundary ahead of
an upper-level wave over portions of the Upper Great Lakes/Upper
Mississippi Valley Saturday. Ongoing organized storms from overnight
Friday as well as the risk for more widespread, organized storms into the
day Saturday has prompted a Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level
3/4) over southern Wisconsin and northeastern Iowa for the threat of
scattered to numerous instances of flash flooding. A broader Slight Risk
(level 2/4) covers the region. In addition, a few storms may be severe,
with a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) issued by the Storm
Prediction Center for the threat of some damaging winds and a few
tornadoes. A locally higher threat for heavier downpours will also exist
over southern New England, with a Slight Risk in place. The noted more
potent upper-level shortwave arriving Sunday will help to push the
boundary south and eastward, bringing higher storm chances more broadly
across New England and southwestward though the Mid-Atlantic/Ohio
Valley/Tennessee Valley. Stronger, very moist low-level flow interacting
with the boundary over northern New England will bring the greatest chance
for heavy downpours and scattered flash flooding, with another Slight Risk
in place. A Slight Risk for severe weather also covers much of the same
region and southwestward into the northern Appalachians/Upper Ohio Valley,
where damaging winds and a few tornadoes will once again be the main
threats.Upper-level ridging will begin to build over the western and then central
U.S. following the shortwave passage, bringing rising temperatures across
this region as well. Forecast highs Saturday across much of the interior
Pacific Northwest, Great Basin, and California will be in the mid-90s to
low 100s. Locally higher temperatures into the mid-100s have prompted
heat-related advisories and warnings for the central California Valleys
into portions of southern California. The focus over the northern tier
will begin to shift eastward with the ridge on Sunday, with cooler highs
in the Pacific Northwest but temperatures soaring into the mid- and upper
90s over much of the central/northern High Plains. Conditions will remain
hot from central to southern California. Temperatures will still be hot
but closer to average for the Desert Southwest as Monsoon-like conditions
remain over the region. Highs Saturday and Sunday will range in the mid-
to upper 100s, with scattered showers and storms bringing the threat for
some locally heavy downpours and an isolated risk for flash flooding.
Elsewhere, a pair of waves of low pressure passing over portions of the
Southeast/Florida as well as south Texas will bring daily shower and storm
chances.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
Existing-home sales slightly declined in May 2024 as the median sales price climbed to a record high. Total existing-home sales – completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – year-over-year, sales waned 2.8%. The median existing-home price for all housing types in May was $419,300, the highest price ever recorded and an increase of 5.8% from one year ago ($396,500). I am surprised at the strength of the existing home market given the high mortgage rates which make home ownership unaffordable. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun’s view:
Eventually, more inventory will help boost home sales and tame home price gains in the upcoming months. Increased housing supply spells good news for consumers who want to see more properties before making purchasing decisions. Home prices reaching new highs are creating a wider divide between those owning properties and those who wish to be first-time buyers. The mortgage payment for a typical home today is more than double that of homes purchased before 2020. Still, first-time buyers in the market understand the long-term benefits of owning.
The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. decreased by 0.5 percent in May 2024 to 101.2 (2016=100), following a 0.6 percent decline in April. Over the six-month period between November 2023 and May 2024, the LEI fell by 2.0 percent—a smaller decrease than its 3.4 percent contraction over the previous six months. Per Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board:
The U.S. LEI fell again in May, driven primarily by a decline in new orders, weak consumer sentiment about future business conditions, and lower building permits. While the Index’s six-month growth rate remained firmly negative, the LEI doesn’t currently signal a recession. We project real GDP growth will slow further to under 1 percent (annualized) over Q2 and Q3 2024, as elevated inflation and high interest rates continue to weigh on consumer spending.
Here are some of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.
With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, there is a rapid transition from Neutral to LaNina. So getting the timing right is challenging. We are now in ENSO Neutral. La Nina is the likely scenario for this summer almost to the end of the forecast period. The Outlook beyond June has not been significantly changed from what was issued last month. This suggests increasing confidence in the outlook. The forecast is a canonical La Nina plus trends.
It will be updated on the last day of June.
| Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are somewhat different, especially about precipitation. This tells us that August and September will be different than July to some extent. |
| The expansion of the area impacted by drought is extensive. |
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Jun 21 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Jun 21 2024 – 12Z Sun Jun 23 2024…Record hot temperatures continue over portions of the Midwest/Ohio
Valley while expanding over the Mid-Atlantic……Heavy rain and flash flooding concerns across the Upper Midwest Friday
and Great Lakes Saturday……Risk for flash flooding in the Four Corners Region Friday…
…Heat building over much of the West heading into the weekend…
A stubborn upper-level high over portions of the eastern to south-central
U.S. will generally remain in place, continuing a heat wave over the
region with the focus for the most intense heat over portions of the
Midwest/Ohio Valley and expanding in the Mid-Atlantic. Forecast
temperatures generally in the mid-90s Friday will rise into the upper 90s
to 100 Saturday in the Mid-Atlantic, with record-tying/breaking
temperatures possible. Heat-related Advisories and Warnings are in place
as these temperatures, when combined with the humidity, will bring heat
index values into the 100-105 degree range, with values as high as 110
possible through the southern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday. Additionally,
overnight low temperatures will remain in the mid-70s for many locations,
at potential record-tying/breaking levels, providing little relief from
the heat overnight. The early arrival of this heat in the Summer season,
persistence over multiple days, and abundant sunshine will aggravate heat
stress on those without reliable air conditioning. Temperatures more
broadly from the East Coast to the central/southern Plains will be in the
low 90s Friday and mid-90s Saturday. Meanwhile, relief continues to the
north of a frontal boundary draped though southern New England, with highs
now mostly in the 70s and low 80s.Meanwhile, areas of showers and thunderstorms will continue along this
frontal boundary to the north of the upper-high, as moisture from the Gulf
flows northward through the Plains and around eastward through the Upper
Great Lakes and into New England. The greatest threat for significant
heavy rainfall will be ahead of a surface wave over portions of the Upper
Midwest as overnight storm complexes help prime the soils Thursday
night/Friday morning ahead of another round of storms expected later
Friday. A Moderate Risk of Excessive rainfall (level 3/4) is in effect
Friday centered on southern Minnesota and adjacent west-central Wisconsin,
northern Iowa, and southeastern South Dakota, where the highest potential
for heavy downpours, several inches of rainfall, and scattered to numerous
instances of flash flooding exists. Additional scattered instances of
flash flooding will be possible more broadly across the Upper Midwest. A
few severe thunderstorms are expected as well, as the Storm Prediction
Center has included a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) for the
region, extending southwestward into the central Plains and the
northwestward into the central/northern High Plains. Damaging winds, large
hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible. An upper-level shortwave
approaching from the west will help to deepen the frontal wave and push
the system eastward on Saturday, bringing the threat for heavy rainfall to
portions of the Great Lakes southwestward into the Upper Mississippi
Valley. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) is in place
Saturday as an organized complex of storms is expected to follow the
system eastward, bringing additional locally heavy rainfall and scattered
instances of flash flooding. Some severe thunderstorms will again be
possible with a Slight Risk in place mainly for the threat of damaging
winds.An upper-level trough moving over the Southwest will bring areas of
showers and thunderstorms to the Four Corners Region on Saturday.
Anomalously high moisture spreading into the region from the remnants of
former T.S. Alberto will help contribute to locally heavy downpours and
the threat for flash flooding, with a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall in
effect Friday. The focus for storms should shift more into portions of the
Desert Southwest on Saturday, with a lingering threat of some isolated
flash flooding. As this trough moves eastward, a ridge will begin to build
over the West in its wake, bringing and expanding area of hot, above
average Summer temperatures. Forecast highs in the 90s on Friday will soar
into the 100s on Saturday for portions of the Great Basin and central
California Valleys. Heat-related Advisories and Watches have been issued
for the central Valleys south into interior southern California beginning
Saturday. Conditions will also be notably hot over the Desert Southwest on
Friday, particularly over central Arizona where Excessive Heat Warnings
are in place, with highs into the 110s. The noted increasing
moisture/storm chances will help cool temperatures down a few degrees
Saturday. Elsewhere, a couple of waves of low pressure will pass over
portions of the Southeast/Florida as well as south Texas, with daily
thunderstorms chances Friday and Saturday.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in May 2024 were 9.5% below May 2023. Privately‐owned housing starts is 19.3% below May 2023. Privately‐owned housing completions were 1.0% above May 2023. But instead of looking at percent change – the overall quantity of completions remains at the high end of completions over the last 4 years (green line on the graph below). The real problem is that the number of houses completed and not sold is very elevated and trending up – see the second graph below.
The Philly Fed June 2024 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey‘s general activity edged down 3 points to 1.3 (its lowest reading since January) , while the indexes for shipments and new orders remained negative. The employment index increased but remained negative, continuing to suggest an overall decline in employment levels. Both price indexes continued to indicate overall price increases. Manufacturing remains a weak spot in the economy.
In the week ending June 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 232,750, an increase of 5,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 227,000 to 227,250.
Here are some of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Jun 20 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Jun 20 2024 – 12Z Sat Jun 22 2024…Heavy rain/flooding threats and gusty winds over South Texas gradually
decrease today as Tropical Storm Alberto makes landfall in Mexico and
dissipates……Heavy rain and flash flooding concerns increase across the northern
Plains to the upper Midwest later Thursday into Friday as scattered
thunderstorms could result in localized flooding issues from the southern
High Plains to the Four Corners……A heat wave will persist over the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and
portions of the Northeast into the weekend as heat intensifies in the
western U.S….Tropical Storm Alberto centered over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has
begun heading west toward northern Mexico early this morning. Organized
bands of heavy rain extending north from the center have already brought
close to 10 inches of rain locally near the mid-Texas coast. As the heavy
rain bands continue to steadily move west through the Rio Grande Valley
into northern Mexico today, the heavy rain and flooding threats will
gradually decrease across South Texas. Strong and gusty winds will also
gradually weaken with time. Some of the tropical moisture from Alberto
will be drawn northward and energize the scattered showers and
thunderstorms from the southern High Plains to the Four Corners heading
into the weekend. These showers/storms will be more numerous during the
late afternoon to early evening hours in these areas.Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the
potential of tropical cyclone formation over the western Atlantic as a
tropical wave moves west-northwest in the general direction of
northeastern Florida and Georgia. Some enhanced rainfall with gusty winds
can be expected to reach these areas Thursday night and will likely linger
through much of Friday.Across the northern tier states, relatively less active weather is
expected today as a high pressure system brings cooler and more stable air
from Canada. However, the next piece of energy exiting the central
Rockies will set up the next episode of heavy rain and strong to severe
storms across the northern Plains to the upper Midwest beginning tonight.
A couple rounds of heavy rain focusing just north of a nearly stationary
front across the region will result in slight to moderate risks of
excessive rainfall from eastern South Dakota, across southern Minnesota
into western Wisconsin through Saturday morning. Farther east, scattered
thunderstorms are likely across the Great Lakes region and the Northeast
near and north of the stationary front. Marginal to slight risks of
severe storms are delineated each day from the Storm Prediction Center
(mainly for the threat of severe wind but with some low chances for hail),
and marginal risks of excessive rainfall are in place as well.All these rain and thunderstorm areas are taking place along the periphery
of an upper ridge/heat dome that edges from the Mid-Atlantic into the
Mid-South over the next couple of days and sustains a heat wave across the
Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic. Afternoon high temperatures and
warm overnight lows will challenge daily records and even some monthly and
all-time records. Heat index readings are expected to peak from 100 to 105
degrees in many locations. Those without access to reliable air
conditioning are urged to find a way to cool down. Record warm overnight
temperatures will prevent natural cooling and allow the heat danger to
build over time indoors without air conditioning. Temperatures may be
lower and less hazardous closer to the coast if/where sea breezes form. By
Friday, conditions should improve over New England as cooler air dips a
bit farther south into the area behind a front, but temperatures well into
the 90s and higher heat indices are forecast to continue across the Ohio
Valley to Mid-Atlantic. Meanwhile, cooler than average highs are likely
into the southern High Plains with the clouds and rain forecast, but
temperatures over the West will gradually rise above normal Thursday and
Friday. In the western U.S., it appears that the heat will increase by
Saturday as triple-digit high temperatures are forecast for the Central
Valley of California and the Great Basin.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
No releases today
Here are some of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Jun 19 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Jun 19 2024 – 12Z Fri Jun 21 2024…Significant heavy rain/flash flooding threat with gusty winds well
ahead of Potential T.C. One expected to impact southern Texas today……A heat wave will persist over the Midwest, Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and
the Northeast into late week……Thunderstorms and heavy rain become less active across the
north-central today into Thursday but may reload across the northern
Plains Thursday night/early Friday…With the last piece of the potent upper-level energy exiting into southern
Canada, the weather across the northern tier states will be less busy than
recent days. Meanwhile, Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC1) is making a
headline as the heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds well north of
the center of circulation are poised to move onshore and head inland
across southern Texas today. It appears that the lower and middle Texas
coasts will be the locations that will most likely be impacted by the
heavy rain and gale force winds. A coastal front may enhance the heavy
rainfall just inland from the coast but how sharp this front will get
is uncertain at this point. Meanwhile, the strong Bermuda High that will
help sustain the heat wave across the Ohio Valley to the Northeast will
also help steer PTC1 westward toward northern Mexico today as PTC1 could
acquire tropical storm (TS) status before making landfall early on
Thursday. The heavy rain well north of TS1 will likewise move west across
southern Texas and into the Rio Grand Valley through tonight, resulting in
rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches from northeast Mexico into South Texas
with maximum totals of 15 inches possible. Winds associated with TS1 will
weaken rapidly over northern Mexico as the heaviest rainfall is forecast
to move west of the Rio Grand Valley into northern Mexico and begin to
taper off early on Friday. Meanwhile, some of the tropical moisture from
TS1 is forecast to stream north and trigger showers and thunderstorms
across the Four Corners region by Thursday and into Friday.As the aforementioned upper-level energy and associated low pressure
system moves farther into Canada, the thunderstorms and heavy rain from
the central Plains to the upper Midwest will become less active today.
The trailing front from the low will become nearly stationary from west to
east across the northern tier states during the next couple of days. The
next piece of upper-level energy ejecting from the central Rockies will
begin to interact with the stationary front late on Thursday and
reinvigorate heavy rain and strong thunderstorms across the northern
Plains and toward the upper Midwest into Friday morning.Meanwhile, a heat wave will continue to impact areas from the Midwest into
much of the Ohio Valley, Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through
the next few days. Afternoon high temperatures and warm overnight lows
will likely challenge daily records and even some monthly records. Heat
index readings are expected to peak from 100 to 105 degrees in many
locations. Those without access to reliable air conditioning are urged to
find a way to cool down. Record warm overnight temperatures will prevent
natural cooling and allow the heat danger to build over time indoors
without air conditioning. Conditions are expected to improve over New
England this weekend.
