EconCurrents

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Dec 30 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Dec 30 2024 – 12Z Wed Jan 01 2025

…Snow showers likely across parts of the Northern Rockies and
Northern/Central Plains today…

…Much above average temperatures continue for the Central and Eastern
U.S today; cooling trend spreads from West to East this week….

…Critical Fire Weather expected for portions of the Southern High Plains
today...

A surface low pressure system ejecting out of the Rockies into the Plains
will likely produce a swath of snow and strong winds from northern Idaho
down through western Iowa today. Moderate impacts mainly due to blowing
snow are expected across much of Wyoming, the Colorado Rockies, South
Dakota and northwestern Nebraska. Snow over the Northern Rockies could
accumulate between 6-12 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Snow
and wind should subside across the Northwest tonight as the low pressure
system tracks into the Ohio Valley.

Downstream, another, deeper mid-latitude cyclone will spread showers and
scattered thunderstorms into the Northeast with some light snow showers
possible downwind of the Lower Great Lakes today. The arrival of the
Plains system will promote even more snow showers for the broader Great
Lakes region on Tuesday.

Much above average temperatures are expected to continue across the
Central and Eastern U.S. today ahead of their respective low pressure
systems. Temperatures over south Texas will be especially anomalous with
highs likely between 20-30 degrees above average. Numerous high
temperature records may be tied or broken as a result. Unusually mild
conditions in the Northeast may also tie or break high temperature records
today. A cooling trend ensues across the West today before expanding east
through the rest of the country over the next couple of days. A Critical
Fire Weather area was issued by the Storm Prediction Center for much of
the Southern High Plains for today due to the especially warm temperatures
paired with dry and gusty westerly downslope flow beneath the storm to the
north.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Dec 29 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 29 2024 – 12Z Tue Dec 31 2024

…Atmospheric river to produce heavy rain/snow across much of the
Northwest today…

…Severe Thunderstorms and Excessive Rainfall concerns shift into parts
of the Central/Southern Appalachians and Mid-Atlantic/Southeast today…

…Much above average temperatures continue across the Central and Eastern
U.S.; cooler air moves into the Northwest on Monday…

…Critical Fire Weather expected for portions of the Southern High Plains
on Monday…

An active weather pattern will continue in the northwestern and
southeastern quadrants of the country today. Heavy rain associated with an
atmospheric river event will produce 1-2 inches over coastal areas of
Oregon and northern California, including upslope areas of the northern
Sierra Nevada. Slight Risks of Excessive Rainfall (at least 15%) leading
to Flash Flooding are in effect for portions of southwest Oregon/northwest
California and the northern Sierra today. This wet pattern in the West
could produce rock, mud and land slides over vulnerable soils. Additional
heavy snow is likely over much of the Cascades, Northern/Central Rockies
and Sierra Nevada. Between 1-2 feet of snow (isolated higher) are expected
for parts of the Cascades and Rockies.

Storms associated with a severe weather outbreak that occurred across the
Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley yesterday will spread into
the southeastern U.S. today. Heavy rain and scattered to severe
thunderstorms, capable of producing tornadoes, damaging wind gusts and
hail are possible from the eastern Gulf Coast northward into the
Carolinas, where a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) is in
effect. Rain showers will also spread into the Northeast today as well,
while some light wintry precipitation develops over parts of the Lower
Peninsula of Michigan tonight.

Meanwhile, ongoing moderate to heavy rainfall along a narrow axis of low
level convergence may persist into this afternoon over south Florida.
There’s potential for this Marginal Risk (at least 5%) of Excessive
Rainfall to over perform given current conditions.

Much above average temperatures from the Central to Eastern thirds of the
country should persist until Tuesday, while an increasingly trough-y
pattern in the West will promote cooling temperatures beginning on Monday.
Widespread high minimum temperatures may be tied or broken across the
Northeast tonight ahead of a deepening upstream trough and southerly flow
along a strong surface warm front. Dry, windy and mild conditions in the
Southern High Plains will support a Critical Risk of Fire Weather on
Monday.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Dec 26 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Dec 26 2024 – 12Z Sat Dec 28 2024

…Continued rounds of heavy rain and mountain snow for the Pacific
Northwest…

…Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms return for eastern Texas into
Louisiana on Thursday…

…Relatively mild conditions across the majority of the country through
Friday…

The very active storm track across the eastern Pacific and into the
Pacific Northwest will continue to make weather headlines through the end
of the week. The next in a series of atmospheric river events is now
ongoing across the Pacific Northwest, with moderate to heavy rainfall and
a few thunderstorms continuing into Thursday morning. This round will
likely result in widespread 1 to 3 inch rainfall totals, and there may be
some instances of flooding where rainfall rates are highest. Once this
first system moves inland, there will be a short-lived break Thursday
afternoon before the next round arrives Thursday night for many of the
same areas, bringing an additional 1-2 inches of rain by Friday morning.
Strong and potentially damaging winds are also expected near the coast and
the coastal waters given a strong low level jet with these storm systems.
The Cascades and the Olympic Mountains will get hammered with heavy snow
on the order of 1-3 feet, where winter storm warnings are in effect, and
lighter snows heading south into northern California with winter weather
advisories. The higher terrain of the northern Intermountain West and the
Northern Rockies will also get noteworthy snowfall as moisture from this
storm system moves inland.

Unsettled weather conditions are also expected for portions of the
south-central U.S. going into Thursday, with an amplifying upper trough
developing a new surface low and moisture plume from the western Gulf,
heralding the development of scattered to widespread showers and
thunderstorms. Both wind shear and instability parameters appear to
become increasingly favorable for some severe weather on Thursday, and
therefore the Storm Prediction Center has portions of the ArkLaTex region
in a Slight Risk for severe storms. Heavy rainfall could also be an issue
where these storms train over the same areas, and there is a Slight Risk
of flash flooding from eastern Texas to central Arkansas. An axis of
heavy rain is likely across portions of the Mid-South going into Friday as
the storm system slowly moves eastward.

Elsewhere across the country, mainly dry conditions are forecast across
the Desert Southwest, Northern Plains, and the Northeast U.S. to close out
the week. Foggy conditions are once again likely across portions of the
Midwest and the Central Plains Thursday and Fridays mornings with
warm/moist air advection over cold ground. In terms of temperatures,
forecast highs Thursday and Friday generally range from the 30s and 40s
for the northern Rockies/Plains eastward to the Great Lakes and New
England/Mid-Atlantic; the 40s and 50s for the Pacific Northwest and
northern California eastward across much of the Intermountain West,
central Rockies/Plains, and extending eastward to the Ohio Valley; the 50s
and 60s for the Mid-South and the Southeast U.S. states; and the middle
60s to near 80 degrees for southern California, the Desert Southwest, much
of Texas, and Florida.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Dec 25 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Dec 25 2024 – 12Z Fri Dec 27 2024

…Continued rounds of heavy rain and mountain snow for the Pacific
Northwest…

…Heavy rain and strong thunderstorms return for eastern Texas into
Louisiana on Thursday…

…Relatively mild conditions across the majority of the country through
Thursday…

The very active storm track across the eastern Pacific and into the
Pacific Northwest will continue to make weather headlines through
Thursday. After a brief break in the action, steady rainfall reaches the
Washington and Oregon coasts by midday Christmas, and then reaches
northern California by evening. Periods of heavy rainfall are likely
Wednesday night as the atmospheric river intersects the coastal terrain,
with perhaps a few thunderstorms. This round will likely result in
widespread 1 to 2 inch rainfall totals, and potentially more on the west
facing slopes, and there may be some instances of flooding where rainfall
rates are highest. Once this first system moves inland, there will be a
short-lived break Thursday afternoon before the next round arrives
Thursday night for many of the same areas, bringing an additional 1-2
inches of rain by Friday morning. Strong winds are also expected near the
coast and the coastal waters given a strong low level jet with these storm
systems. Snow levels are likely to be lower with the second round, with
the Cascades getting hammered with heavy snow on the order of 1-3 feet,
and lighter snows heading south into northern California. The higher
terrain of the northern Intermountain West and the Northern Rockies will
also get noteworthy snowfall, particularly across eastern Oregon and into
Idaho.

Unsettled weather conditions are also expected for portions of the
south-central U.S. with a loitering surface low over Texas and a
meandering stationary front over eastern Texas and into Louisiana. There
will likely be a decrease in the shower and thunderstorm coverage on
Christmas Day, but an amplifying upper trough will develop a new surface
low and moisture plume from the western Gulf, heralding the development of
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Both wind shear and
instability parameters appear to become increasingly favorable for some
severe weather on Thursday, and therefore the Storm Prediction Center has
portions of the ArkLaTex region in a Slight Risk for severe storms. Heavy
rainfall could also be an issue where these storms train over the same
areas, and there is a Slight Risk of flash flooding from eastern Texas to
central Arkansas.

Elsewhere across the country, mainly dry conditions are forecast across
the Desert Southwest, Northern Plains, and most of the East Coast states
with the exception of some showers near the Florida East Coast. Foggy
conditions are likely across portions of the Midwest and the Central
Plains both Christmas morning and Thursday morning with warm air advection
over cold ground. In terms of temperatures, forecast highs on Christmas
Day and Thursday generally range from the 30s and 40s for the northern
Rockies/Plains eastward to the Great Lakes and New England/Mid-Atlantic;
the 40s and 50s for the Pacific Northwest and northern California eastward
across much of the Intermountain West, central Rockies/Plains, and
extending eastward to the Ohio Valley; the 50s and 60s for the Mid-South
and the Southeast U.S. states; and the 60s and 70s for southern
California, the Desert Southwest, Texas, and Florida.