EconCurrents

• The Dow closed down 141 points or 0.33%,
• Nasdaq closed up 139 points or 0.76%,
• S&P 500 closed up 12 points or 0.21%,
• Gold $2,749 up $19.10 or 0.07%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.26 or 0.35%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.210 up 0.032 points or 0.258%,
• USD index $104.02 down $0.41 or 0.39%,
• Bitcoin $68,144 up $1,894 or 2.78%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The Nasdaq Composite gained, led by Tesla’s strong performance. The S&P 500 closed up while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell extending losses from the previous day. Tesla reported its biggest quarterly profit in over a year. Tesla shares surged more than 20%, its best day in over a decade. CEO Elon Musk forecasted 20% to 30% EV sales growth next year. The company grew adjusted EBITDA margins for the first time in over a year. IBM shares fell over 6% following a third-quarter revenue miss. Boeing shares sagged around 1% after striking workers rejected a pay deal.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Sales of new single-family houses in September 2024 were up 6.3% above September 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in September 2024 was $426,300. The average sales price was $501,000. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of September was 470,000. This represents a supply of 7.6 months at the current sales rate. New home construction is one of the bright spots in the economy.

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI ) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.19 in September from –0.14 in August. A zero value for the CFNAI has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. The CFNAI is my favorite coincident indicator, and shows a continuing weak economy.

Kansas Fed manufacturing activity declined modestly in October 2024. The month-over-month composite index was -4, up from -8 in September. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the US.

In the week ending October 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 238,500, an increase of 2,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 236,250 to 236,500. There is no sign of a recession in this data.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Valero Could Be Next To Shutter California Oil Refineries
• Mckinsey: Europe’s Data Center Power Demand To Triple By 2030
• Russia’s Advance Threatens to Cripple Ukraine’s Steel Industry
• Saudi Oil Export Revenues Hit Three-Year Low as Prices Decline
• Tesla Stock Soars After Q3 Earnings Beat
• China’s Coal Imports Could Decline in 2025
• Tesla stock soars 20%, heads for best day in over a decade on Musk’s 2025 growth projection
• S&P 500 rises to end three-day losing run, lifted by surge in Tesla: Live updates
• U.S. will be ‘more pro-crypto’ after this election, no matter who wins, says Ripple CEO Garlinghouse
• Bitcoin eyes $68,000 as it reclaims some weekly losses: CNBC Crypto World
• Hezbollah Targets Tel Aviv With Large Iranian Missiles Launched From Underground Silos
• Why stock investors have been on edge over the prospects of a total sweep for Republicans

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 410 points or 0.96%,
• Nasdaq closed down 296 points or 1.60%,
• S&P 500 closed down 54 points or 0.92%,
• Gold $2,730 down $30.00 or 1.09%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.76 or 1.07%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.240 down 0.034 points or 0.273%,
• USD index $104.39 up $0.32 or 0.30%,
• Bitcoin $66,308 down $1,107 or 1.67%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

Stocks slumped, with major indexes falling: The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.24%, reaching levels not seen since July. Doubts about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts weighed on investors. Interest rate volatility hit its highest level since December 2023. Busy earnings day, highlighted by Boeing and Tesla reports. Tesla (TSLA) earnings due at 5:30 pm EST, with focus on the cheaper EV model Robotaxi . Boeing (BA) reported a large quarterly loss – what a surprise :). McDonald’s (MCD) stock fell over 5% after its Quarter Pounder burgers were linked to an E. coli outbreak. Several big tech names lagged: Meta down over 3%. Amazon down over 2.5%. Nvidia down over 2.5%.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Total existing-home sales fell 3.5% year-over-year in September 2024. The median existing-home price was $404,500, up 3.0% from one year ago. Existing home sales has been declining all this year (see blue line in the graph below). NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

Home sales have been essentially stuck at around a four-million-unit pace for the past 12 months, but factors usually associated with higher home sales are developing,” said . “There are more inventory choices for consumers, lower mortgage rates than a year ago and continued job additions to the economy. Perhaps, some consumers are hesitating about moving forward with a major expenditure like purchasing a home before the upcoming election. Moderating home price increases are welcome news for home buyers. With wage growth now outpacing home price appreciation, housing affordability will improve. 

According to the October 2024 Beige Book, overall economic activity was largely unchanged across most Federal Reserve Districts. Two districts reported modest growth. Manufacturing activity declined in most districts. Banking sector activity was steady to slightly, with mixed loan demand. Consumer spending reports were mixed, with shifts toward less expensive options.  Housing market activity has generally held steady, though affordability remains an issue. Commercial real estate markets were mostly flat. The agricultural and energy sectors saw flat to modest declines. Employment increased slightly overall. Worker turnover was low and layoffs remained limited. Hiring focused more on replacement than growth. Worker availability improved in many areas. Wages continued to rise at a modest to moderate pace. The pace of wage increases slowed in some areas. Inflation continued to moderate, with slight to modest price increases in most districts. Some food products saw sharper price increases. Home prices edged up in many areas. Consumers showed increased price sensitivity. Input prices generally rose faster than selling prices, compressing profit margins. Insurance and healthcare costs saw more acute price pressures. Note that the Beige Book is a compilation of anecdotal information from various sources, including business leaders, economists, and market experts – bottom line is that this is unsubstantiated opinion.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Kazakhstan Seeks Permanent Normal Trade Status with U.S.
• Harbour Energy Joins North Sea Oil Exodus Ahead Of Tax Hikes
• Shell Buys US Power Plant for Foothold in New England Market
• Oil Ticks Lower on Crude, Gasoline Build
• Tesla investors have a lot of questions for Musk about Trump
• Shares of Peloton surge 11% after David Einhorn says stock is significantly undervalued
• Dow tumbles 400 points, suffering worst day since early September: Live updates
• Bitcoin dips to $65,000 level, continuing to shed last week’s gains: CNBC Crypto World
• 10-year Treasury yield briefly tops 4.25%, hits highest level since late July
• Ugly, Dovish Beige Book Warns Of Manufacturing Decline In “Most Districts”, Greenlights Further Rate Cuts
• 10-year Treasury yield ends at 3-month high as volatility gauge hits 2024 peak

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 7 points or 0.02%,
• Nasdaq closed up 33 points or 0.18%, (Closed at 18,573, New Historic high 18,621)
• S&P 500 closed down 3 points or 0.05%,
• Gold $2,762 up $22.90 or 0.84%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.68 or 2.38%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.208 up 0.026 points or 0.211%,
• USD index $104.11 up $0.09 or 0.09%,
• Bitcoin $67,486 down $1,755 or 0.26%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

Investors were processing a recent bond market sell-off and incoming earnings reports. Doubts are growing about the Federal Reserve’s ability to cut rates aggressively or maintain current levels in November. The 10-year Treasury yield stabilized around 4.2% after surpassing this level on Monday for the first time since July. General Motors raised its guidance for the third time this year, with shares closing up over 10%. GE Aerospace and Verizon saw share price declines following mixed Q3 reports. Anticipation is building for Tesla’s earnings report, expected on Wednesday. Gold prices reached another record high as investors sought safety amid geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Richmond Fed manufacturing activity remained slow in October 2024. The composite manufacturing index increased from −21 in September to −14 in October. Of its three component indexes, shipments increased from −18 to −8, new orders rose from −23 to −17, and employment increased from −22 to −17. Being a negative number shows manufacturing remains in a recession.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Tightens Grip on Russia’s LNG Exports
• Oilfield Services Firms Sound the Alarm: Shale Spending Slows
• The Dark Side of AI-Powered Synthetic Biology
• Top U.S. LNG Exports: China’s Gas Demand Is Booming
• EU Imports of China’s EVs Surge Ahead of Tariffs
• U.S. Monitors Shadow Fleet Oil Transfers in Southeast Asia
• Paul Tudor Jones says market reckoning on spending is coming after election: ‘We are going to be broke’
• Philip Morris is a growth stock again as shares hit all-time high on Zyn demand boom
• Dow posts back-to-back loss Tuesday as Wall Street’s rally pauses: Live updates
• Peloton partners with Costco to sell Bike+ as it looks to reach young, wealthy customers
• IRS announces bigger estate and gift tax exemption for 2025
• Polymarket Is Singlehandedly Moving The Entire US Bond Market
• 10-year Treasury yield ends at roughly 3-month high as U.S. deficit concerns linger

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

• The Dow closed down 344 points or 0.08%,
• Nasdaq closed up 50 points or 0.27%,
• S&P 500 closed down 10 points or 0.18%,
• Gold $2,735 up $4.80 or 0.17%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $1.16 or 1.68%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.196% up 0.119 points or 0.953%,
• USD index $103.97 up $0.48 or 0.46%,
• Bitcoin $67,625 down $1,345 or 1.95%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The stock market closed mixed, with major indices showing varied results: The S&P 500 retreated from its recent all-time closing high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell also. Nvidia gained over 4%, closing at a fresh all-time high. Apple also reached a new closing record. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 10 basis points to 4.18%, its highest level since July. Investors are preparing for a busy week of earnings reports, with over 100 S&P 500 companies scheduled to release their results. So far, 80% of third-quarter updates from these companies have exceeded expectations. Key companies to watch this week include Tesla, General Motors, Coca-Cola, American Airlines, and UPS. Boeing faces a crucial day on Wednesday with both earnings release and a union vote on a tentative deal to end a five-week strike. Oil prices rose nearly 2%, with global benchmark Brent futures closing above $74 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude settling above $70.

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Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the US declined by 0.5% in September 2024, following a 0.3% decline in August. Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board explained:

Weakness in factory new orders continued to be a major drag on the US LEI in September as the global manufacturing slump persists. Additionally, the yield curve remained inverted, building permits declined, and consumers’ outlook for future business conditions was tepid. Gains among other LEI components were not significant enough to offset weakness among the four gauges mentioned above. Overall, the LEI continued to signal uncertainty for economic activity ahead and is consistent with The Conference Board expectation for moderate growth at the close of 2024 and into early 2025.

The San Pedro Bay port complex, which includes both the Port of Los Angeles and the Port of Long Beach, handled approximately 29% of all containerized international waterborne trade in the United States in 2023. Their import data provides a window into imports into the US. In September 2024, imports were up 14% year-over-year while exports were down 9%. This was the largest September imports on record.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Oil Prices Gain 2% After China Boosts Stimulus Measures
• Gold Supply and Demand Imbalance Fuels Price Surge
• Russia’s Dark Fleet of Oil Tankers is Fueling India’s Refining Boom
• EU Hits 95% Full Natural Gas Storage Ahead of Winter
• U.S. Electricity Demand Jump Catches Power Utilities Unaware
• Iraq Stuck Between Israel and Iran As Tensions Rise
• Trump tax plans could exempt 93 million Americans from income taxes
• Qualcomm revamps mobile phone chips for AI, signs Samsung and others
• Seven Israelis Accused Of Giving Info To Iran On Targeted IDF Bases
• California Continues To See Negative Net Domestic Migration
• WNBA star Angel Reese says of her $73,439 salary: ‘Does that even pay my car note?’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.