“We the People”, really?
“We the People,” so begins the U.S. Constitution. It was a very powerful slogan for a new nation, which was founded with neither a king nor a pope. Unfortunately, it…
19Apr2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Generally Up Today
Quick View of the markets today:
- The Dow closed up 1.5%,
- Nasdaq unchanged,
- S&P up 1.6%,
- crude oil up marginally to $102.63,
- gold off marginally to $1,952,
- Bitcoin at $40,848,
- Treasury yields up with the 10-year U.S. Treasury hitting 3% for the first time in three years,
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) said today that the global economic recovery will “slow significantly” this year due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – downgrading their forecasts for global GDP growth to only 3.6% in 2022.
As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:
- Oil Dips As IMF Slashes Economic Growth Forecasts
- Netflix estimates 100 million households are sharing passwords and suggests a global crackdown is coming
- Russia Tells Azov Fighters Trapped In Giant ‘Fortress’ Steel Plant: “Lay Down Arms Or We’ll Level Everything”
- Get Ready For The Next Supply Chain Shockwave
18Apr2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: DOW Closed Down 40 Points, NASDAQ Closed Down 0.1%, The S&P 500 Closed Flat, Down 0.02%. Gold Rises To 1977, Bitcoin Rises Fractionally to 40800, WTI Crude Settles Higher At 107.32
Wall Street fluctuated back and forth on Thursday’s closing line to finally bid for the green in the last half hour, with the BTFDers trying their best to avoid a down market. Alas, they failed with their bid. Tomorrow may see green!
Today’s roller-coaster ride was on fractionally low red volume as investors watched the Fed’s precarious decisions regarding a possible recession and obvious rescission. Unfortunately, some analysts are trash-talking those who see daylight ahead and do not realize it is a train headlight they see. According to some, the real inflation rate is 13% based on today’s data, not the 1950’s figures.
One such analyst, Wells Fargo stock strategist Chris Harvey, said last week that despite “daily calls for a recession from anyone with a megaphone, we do not expect one of the next 12 months. Rather, stagflation likely will prevail.”
We will let you decide!
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Commodities Soar As Bonds, Stocks, & Bitcoin Rollercoaster Wildly
- The Fed Is Walking A Tightrope Between Recovery And Recession
- Florida judge overturns CDC mask mandate for planes and public transit
- Florida Judge Overturns Cdc Mask Mandate For Planes And Public Transit
- Natural Gas Surges To Highest Level Since 2008 As Russia’s War Upends Energy Markets
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
JAMSTEC Issues their Seasonal Outlook based on April 1, 2022 Model Runs
Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. You need a scorecard. I am going to show their forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast. Of the season that includes our monsoon, I will extract and enlarge their forecast for North America.
I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that.
NOAA Updates Their ENSO Forecast – La Nina Looks to Continue
This may read like a repeat of a prior article but it is not. It is simply that the situation has not really changed. On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e. La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis. Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are not at all ruled out. That could be a real disaster for the Southwest and the West Coast.
The impact of the NOAA forecast for the slow or non-existent transition from La Nina to ENSO Neutral will show up next Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. The NOAA ENSO Status Update provides an advance indication of how the Outlook might change. There is a lag between the ENSO state and the impact on U.S. weather. Thus the exact date when La Nina meets the criteria for ENSO Neutral may not be very important in terms of the actual impact on Spring and Summer weather including the North American Monsoon (NAM). We may see some changes farther out in the NOAA Outlook that will be issued next Thursday in particular Fall and Winter. But the possibility of a Triple Dip should be of considerable concern but it most likely will not be reflected in the Outlook issued next Thursday since it remains unlikely but possible. We will learn more about what NOAA thinks next Thursday.
14Apr2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: DOW Closed Down 113 points, NASDAQ Down 2.1%, S&P 500 Down 1.2%, WTI Crude Higher At 106.15, USD Higher At 100.33, Bitcoin Slips Again To 39800 While Dogecoin Rises $0.1413
Today ends a shorter week for Wall Street as it heads into the Easter weekend, ending the trading week at the closing bell. In addition, the U.S. stock markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday.
The equities open higher this morning only to slip downward with NASDAQ sharply off session highs. Bank earnings share Wall Street’s fall today, inflation fears, and the Ukraine war continues to shake investors. Now, investors are digesting a flurry of mixed quarterly reports from Wells Fargo (WFC), Goldman Sachs (G.S.), Morgan Stanley (M.S.), and Citigroup (C).
This morning’s financial report showed Initial Jobless Claims 09/APR rose to 185K from 167K. Moreover, the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel APR rose to 65.7 from 59.4. Adding to this are the super-high gas prices and the highest inflation in forty years that held back consumer spending as March retail sales slowed from their February levels.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- How Will Chinas New Lockdowns Impact Commodity Prices?
- Sustainable Recovery Spending Could Be Derailed By Commodity Price Spikes Following Ukraine War
- Retail Sales Rose 0.5% In March Amid Inflation Jump; Import Prices Hit 11-Year High
- Morgan Stanley Earnings Top Estimates Fueled By Trading Revenue Gains
The Fed Just Disengaged Its Volatility Suppression Machine - The Ratings Game: Elon Musk Says Twitter Shareholders Should ‘Love’ His Buyout Offer, But Wall Street Doesn’t Seem To Agree
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
13Apr2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: DOW Closed Up 344, NASDAQ Sharply Higher +2.0%, WTI Crude Higher 104.17, Bitcoin Rises To 41100, USD Slips Below 100 To 99.19
Global equities rose today despite inflation scares and the continuing war in Ukraine. U.S. equities finished near session highs as bond yields slip, and Fed’s Waller says inflation may have peaked – NOT! Stocks rally on mostly positive earnings, snapping a 3-day losing streak for the S&P 500, closing up 1.1%.
Salient notes from the Labor Department’s report:
“Gasoline prices skyrocketed 48%, and one analysts says, breakfast cereal is the new reserve currency because cereal prices jumped 9.2%. Not outdone, meat prices have spiked even more to a scary 14.8%. Men’s jackets, suits, and coats will cost you 14.5% more, and airline fares rose 10.7%. Think again about buying a used car. Prices have spiked 35% over the past year.”
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- India Faces Coal Shortage, Again
- U.S. Energy Grid Faces Huge Problems Amid Push To Electrify Everything
- Jamie Dimon Sees ‘Storm Clouds’ Ahead For U.S. Economy Later This Year
- Russian Oligarch Roman Abramovich Has $7 Billion In Assets Frozen In Jersey In Latest Ukraine Fallout
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
“All men are created equal”, really?
“All men are created equal” – What a slogan in the “Declaration of Independence”!
It was very powerful and useful for America to defy the British King at the time. But its true validity has been in question ever since, with profound implications to date, not only for America but also for the world.
It is time to thoroughly clarify it: it is false!
12Apr2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Sharply Down After Posting Opening Morning Highs, DOW Closed Down 88 Points, NASDAQ Down 0.3%, WTI Crude Higher At 100.69, USD Passed $100 And Climbing, Bitcoin Slips Further To 39400
The last hour of trading saw the three major Wall Street indexes slip perceptibly down from morning highs to close deep into the red. The markets gapped up at the opening into the green only to slide with lower highs and lower lows. Although the closing numbers are not as drastic as some past sessions have been, they mark the penetration of solid support. The next support for the DOW appears to be at 33,500. The tech-heavy NASDAQ has lost more than $1 trillion in market value in just the past five trading sessions.
Analysts blame the fall on the CPI, reporting a whopping 8.5% Y/Y for March. Today, stocks fell after an early morning bounce gave way to selling as investors weighed the latest U.S. inflation data. The report showed another sharp increase in prices as inflation hit a 41-year high. (Inflation Rate rose to 8.5% from 7.9%) However, there are signs price hikes could slow down soon, say some analysts.
“It’s going to be ugly,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. “It’s a perfect storm – Russian invasion, surging oil prices, China locking down, further disruptions to supply chains, wage growth accelerating, unfilled positions. Just a kind of scrambled mess leading to painfully high inflation.”
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Oil Prices Rise As Chinese Demand Begins To Rebound
- Airfare Surged 20% Over Pre-Pandemic Levels In March As Inflation Hit Vacations
- Giant Undersea Cables Set To Give The U.K. And Germany Their First Direct Energy Link
- Pentagon Treats Azov Claims Of Russian Chemical Attack With Caution After the U.K. Amplified Them
- Mood On Wall Street Is Apocalyptic, Yet Nobody Wants To Sell: Here’s Why
- Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana Crash Up To 30% In A Week
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
11Apr2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Bonds, Bitcoin Plummets, & Big-Tech Battered As U.S. ‘Misery’ Reaches 40 Year Highs, DOW Closes Down 413 points, 30 points Off Session Lows, NASDAQ Down 2.2%, S&P 500 Down 1.7%, WTI Sitting On Support At 94.93
Wall Street Stocks extended losses in its final hour of trading today, emphasizing investors’ fears of deepening inflation and the inability of the Federal Reserve to control it. The DOW closed lower on losses for shares of Microsoft and American Express. The indexes were pulled lower largely by technology shares as U.S. Treasury yields marched higher.
Bitcoin fell below $40,000 as investors assessed global macro risks, inflation, and a possible recession. Bitcoin could dive to as low as $30,000 by June, considering its strong correlation with tech-heavy equities, according to Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX. But, Mr. Hays says, “as long as bitcoin trades above its fair valuation of $38,000, there shouldn’t be a crash.”
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Oil Sands Financing From Canadian Banks Doubles
- Russian Oil Exports Rebound, But Struggle To Find Buyers Outside Asia
- Oil drops, Brent crude falls below $100 as China lockdowns spark demand fears
- JPMorgan’s Resident Permabull Marko Kolanovic Says “Take Profits”
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
