EconCurrents

Summary Of the Markets Today

• The Dow up 1.9%,
• Nasdaq up 3.1%,
• S&P 500 up 02.5%,
• WTI crude oil up over $3 to $105.17,
• gold up $8 to $1,897,
• Bitcoin up 1.6% to $39,771,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury unchanged at 2.83%

Today’s Economic Releases

A surprise contraction of First Quarter 2022 GDP (advance estimate). This was below expectations, and I suggest for the rest of the year GDP will remain subdued primarily due to inflation (real GDP is adjusted for inflation). Note that the headline GDP is calculated quarter-over-quarter annualized – if one calculates year-over-year, real GDP increased 3.6% from the same quarter one year ago. The BEA summary:

The decrease in real GDP reflected decreases in private inventory investment, exports, federal government spending, and state and local government spending, while imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, and residential fixed investment increased.

Initial unemployment claims continues to trend down.

Other Economic News

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Moldova Fears Russia Is Looking To Expand Its War Beyond Ukraine
• Is China Finally Distancing Itself From Russia?
• Iran Boosts Oil Exports As Its Key Buyer China Cuts Russian Purchases
• Elon Musk will be the most indebted CEO in America if the Twitter deal goes through
• Climate change will drive new transmission of 4,000 viruses between mammals by 2070
• “WTF Was That!” – Stocks Explode Higher As US Economy Heads Into Recession

Quick View of the markets today:

• The Dow up 0.2%,
• Nasdaq little changed,
• S&P 500 up 0.2%,
• WTI crude oil little changed at $102.15,
• gold down $18 to $1,886,
• Bitcoin up $1,017 to $39,144,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury unchanged at 2.84%

Pending home sales (March 2022 data) have declined for five months straight. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist stated:

The falling contract signings are implying that multiple offers will soon dissipate and be replaced by much calmer and normalized market conditions. As it stands, the sudden large gains in mortgage rates have reduced the pool of eligible homebuyers, and that has consequently lowered buying activity.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Russian Hackers Are Targeting Europe’s Renewable Energy Infrastructure
• Italy May Consider Nationalizing Giant Lukoil Refinery
• EU Pledges Coordinated Response To Russian Gas Blackmail
• Peter Schiff: The Fed’s Ego Is The Only Thing Bigger Than This Bubble

Quick View of the markets today:

• The Dow declined 2.4%,
• Nasdaq declined 4.0%,
• S&P 500 declined 2.8%,
• WTI crude oil modestly increased $3.50 to $102.07,
• gold up $6 to $1,902,
• Bitcoin down 5.4% to $38,055,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury declined 8 basis point to 2.74%

CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp commented on the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index for February released this morning:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index pushed up to a 19.8% increase in February, the second consecutive month of accelerated growth after a winter lull, and another month of the strongest annual increase since the beginning of the data series. Price growth was robust across the country with all 20 metro areas experiencing stronger annual gains than in January. The largest increases in annual gains were in the West Coast markets: Los Angeles, Seattle, San Diego and San Francisco, and also in high tier price segments. While anticipation of mortgage rate increases pulled many buyers in ahead of the spring home buying season, strength in the higher priced segments of the market also suggests that buyers are seeing additional value in homes as a hedge against inflation.

Durable goods year-over-year growth remained fairly stable for March 2022.

New home sales declined this month – no surprise because of rising interest rates and higher prices.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Germany Could Ban Russian Oil In Days
• Steel Demand Is Dwindling As China Grapples With New Lockdowns
• At least 58% of U.S. population has natural antibodies from previous Covid infection, CDC says
• Poland Confirms Russia To Halt All Gas Delivery Wednesday If Payment Not Settled In Rubles
• Europe Buys Abu Dhabi Crude To Replace Russian Barrels

Quick View of the markets today:

• The Dow gained 0.7%,
• Nasdaq up 1.3%,
• S&P 500 up 0.7%,
• WTI crude oil modestly declined $3 to $99.04,
• gold declined $35 to $1,900,
• Bitcoin rose 2.0% to $40,311,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury declined 7 basis point to 2.83%

The NFIB reported today that inflation is now small business’s single most important problem displacing labor quality. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three month moving average improved in March 2022 – and the index continues to expand above its historical trend (average) rate of growth

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Russia Ramps Up Attacks On Ukraine Rail Lines To Thwart NATO Arms Shipments
• SpaceX’s Starlink to provide Wi-Fi on Hawaiian Airlines flights with free service for passengers
• Financial Markets Brace For Stagflation As Global Growth Optimism Sinks
• The Margin: Twitter’s board accepts Elon Musk’s offer — and users are either celebrating ‘free speech’ or saying ‘RIP Twitter’
• Europe Buys Abu Dhabi Crude To Replace Russian Barrels

Quick View of the markets today:

• The Dow closed down 2.8%,
• Nasdaq off 2.6%,
• S&P 500 down 2.8%,
• crude oil modestly declined over $2 to $101.21,
• gold declined over $13 to $1,935,
• Bitcoin fell $1,644 to $39,508,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury declined 1 basis point to 2.90%

Today there was no safe haven for your money except cash. So many negative forces now acting on the market lead by the expected impact of the Fed’s increases to the federal funds rate which will impact borrowing. The war in Ukraine and the covid lockdowns in China are having a negative impact to world trade.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Bearish Sentiment Drags Oil Prices Lower
• The Netherlands Plans To End Russian Oil And Gas Purchases By The End Of The Year
• U.S. Rig Count Inches Higher As Oil Rally Halts
• Florida Gov. DeSantis signs bill revoking Disney’s special district status
• Bond/Stock Bloodbath Leads To Worst Start To A Year On Record

Quick View of the markets today:

• The Dow closed down 1.0%,
• Nasdaq off 2.1%,
• S&P down 1.5%,
• crude oil unchanged at $103.90,
• gold unchanged at $1,953,
• Bitcoin modestly declined to $41,209,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury rose 6 basis points to 2.90%

The World Bank now estimates the destruction in Ukraine to buildings and infrastructure has reached $60 billion. Fed Chairman Powell said today that a half-point federal funds interest rate increase is on the table for the coming FOMC meeting which ends 04 May.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• Russia’s Largest Chemical Plant Engulfed In Flames Hours After Mystery Fire At Military Research Facility
• Food Prices Are Soaring As Russia’s War In Ukraine Persists
• The Aerospace Industry Is Grappling With A Titanium Supply Shortage
• CNN+ will shut down April 30, just one month after launch

Quick View of the markets today:

• The Dow closed up 0.7%,
• Nasdaq off 1.2%,
• S&P down 0.1%,
• crude oil unchanged at $102.60,
• gold up marginally to $1,953,
• Bitcoin rose to $41,253,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury off 0.08% to 2.84%

Netflix was in the news today after losing subscribers for the first time in over 10 years – and shares lost over 30% today.

As usual, we have included below the headlines and news summaries moving the markets today including:

• U.S. Banks Set To Write Off $15 Billion In Russian Assets
• U.S. To Become Worlds Top LNG Exporter This Year
• Germany Pledges To Halt All Russian Oil Imports By End Of Year
• 10- and 30-year Treasury yields pull back from three-year highs amid pause in bond selloff