25July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Ends Choppy Monday Session Mixed, Fed Meeting In Focus As Investors Brace For Likely Interest Rate Hike

July 25, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 91 points or 0.28%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.43%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.13%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $97 up 1.82%,
  • USD $106.45 down 0.11%,
  • Gold $1718 up 1.85%,
  • Bitcoin $21,803 down 4.22% – Session Low 21,606,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.796 unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

The three-month moving average of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index moved marginally into negative territory in June 2022.  This is not indicative of a recession as the values are explained as follows:

A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI-MA3 above –0.70 and the CFNAI Diffusion Index above –0.35.

The point is that the three-month moving average has to fall to a value of -0.70 [this month the value is -0.04] before a recession occurs. The CFNAI is considered the best coincident indicator of the economy.

The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey for July 2022 was largely unchanged at 3.8, a reading well below average but still indicative of growth.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Brent-WTI Spread Widens To Over $8 As U.S. Gasoline Demand Slows
  • OPEC+ Is Now 2.84 Million Bpd Below Its Oil Production Target
  • GM trails far behind Tesla in EV sales — CEO Mary Barra bet the company that will change
  • The Mega Millions jackpot is now $810 million. Here’s how much would go to taxes if there’s a winner
  • Fear prevents workers reporting low pay – report
  • The Fed: Four things you will want to listen for at Wednesday’s Federal Reserve meeting

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

July 25: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 25, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Excessive heat to continue across portions of the Central Plains and
Middle Mississippi Valley through Tuesday while Northeast and Mid-Atlantic
moderate a bit....

...Severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall possible from Middle
Mississippi Valley to Northeast...

...Monsoonal moisture to cause daily rounds of excessive rainfall and
isolated flash flooding across portions of the Southwest and Southern
Rockies through Tuesday...

July 24: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 24, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Record breaking heat wave continues from Mid-South to Northeast this
weekend....

...Severe thunderstorms capable of producing flash flooding to spread from
Midwest today and tomorrow to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast on Monday...

...Monsoonal moisture to gradually bring locally heavy rains and isolated
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest into the Southern Rockies
through Monday...

Friday Looking Ahead 28 Days July 22, 2022

July 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

First half of 28-Day Forecast Period is wetter than the second half. But it is hot throughout the 28-Day Forecast Period.

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the predictions do not always work out as predicted but in the article, there are links to obtain updated predictions.

It is somewhat surprising that there is as much difference between the first 14 days and the second 14 days of the 28-Day Forecast Period.  The North American Monsoon is strong throughout the 28-Day Forecast Period. It is stronger at the beginning and slowly returns towards what is a normal Monsoon.  Heat will be a hazard.

July 23: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Searing heat wave to engulf much of the Heartland, Mid-South, and
Northeast Coast this weekend....

...Enhanced Risk for severe storms in the Midwest on Saturday...

...Monsoonal moisture to gradually bring locally heavy rains and isolated
flash flooding across portions of the Southwest into the Southern Rockies
this weekend...

...Critical Fire Weather Risk in eastern Idaho today...

22July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Lower. Weak Business Surveys Darken Outlook.

July 22, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 137 points or -0.43%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.87%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.93%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $95 down 1.6%,
  • USD $106.57 down 0.32%,
  • Gold $1723 up 0.6%,
  • Bitcoin $22,725 down 1.8%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.5% unchanged,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 758 Canada +4 to 195

Today’s Economic Releases:

This morning’s reported financials were anything but reassuring. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI Flash JUL Fell To 52.3 From 52.7 – this was the weakest level in two years. S&P Global Composite PMI Flash JUL Fell To 47.5 From 52.3 – the rate of decline was the sharpest since the initial stages of the pandemic in May 2020. S&P Global Services PMI Flash JUL Fell To 47 From 52.7 – this was the weakest level in two years.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Oil Rig Count Unchanged As WTI Slumps Below $100
  • Verizon shares fall after company cuts full-year forecast
  • Airlines were too ambitious chasing the travel rebound. Now they’re scaling back
  • Convenience store chain 7-Eleven cuts 880 corporate jobs as part of restructuring
  • Volkswagen CEO Forced Out After Clashes With Union Bosses
  • “It All Adds Up To One Word: Pain”: Traders Forced To Chase Gamma Higher As Stocks Refuse To Drop Despite Dire News And Data
  • Powell seen slowing Fed hikes after 75 basis points next week
  • Top Ten: Weekend reads: Prepare for a big week — a crucial Federal Reserve decision, tech-company earnings and a GDP report

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

NOAA Issues Four-Season Outlook on July 21, 2022

July 22, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina, but Not Quite Yet

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of August plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

The three-month period Jan/Feb/Mar next year seems to be when the overall precipitation situation improves but for some reason the temperature situation does not and may be worse for several months along parts of the Southern Tier. You can take La Nina out of the forecast, but the warming trend continues. For many parts of CONUS, 2023 will be better than 2022. At least that is what NOAA is predicting right now.

July 22: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

July 22, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat to continue impacting portions of the southwestern,
south-central, and eastern U.S....

...Severe thunderstorms possible across sections of the East Coast and the
Southeast today...

...Monsoonal moisture to bring locally heavy rains and isolated flash
flooding across portions of the Southwest into the southern Rockies...

21July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Morning Financial Calendar Posted Poor Numbers Which Investors Eventually Ignored. Initial Jobless Claims Rose Whilst Philly Fed Business Conditions Fell Sharply.

July 21, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 162 points or 0.51%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.36%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.99%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $96 down 3.39%,
  • USD $106.86 down 0.16%,
  • Gold $1718 up 0.17%,
  • Bitcoin $23,086 up 0.68% – Session Low 22,783,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.906% down 0.13%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Manufacturing activity declined for the firms in the Philadelphia Fed’s district according to the July 2022 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. Note that historically the Philly Fed’s survey cannot be relied upon as an indicator of a recession.

According to Macro Charts, there are a record number of short positions which normally correlate to a return to a bull market.

source: @MarcoCharts

The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims continues to moderately increase.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • IEA Chief: Europe Must Cut Gas Usage 20% To Survive Winter
  • Airlines temper flying ambitions after chaotic — but profitable — travel rebound
  • AT&T shares fall after company says later payments, higher spending are hurting cash flow
  • Dems Openly Admit Gun Control Bill Will Confiscate Firearms In “Common Use”
  • Job Listings Starting To Trend Lower
  • Bond Report: Treasury yields drop by most since June on signs of slowing U.S. economy, Biden’s positive COVID test
  • Rex Nutting: Almost all the economic numbers are aligned: A U.S. recession is now likely

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.