EconCurrents

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 377 points or 1.19%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.11%,
• S&P 500 up 1.53%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $86 down 3.21%,
• USD index $109.99 down 0.65%,
• Gold $1727 up 0.4%,
• Bitcoin $21,249 up 9.98%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.317% little changed

Today’s Economic Releases:

Total Average Equity Per Homeowner Hits a Record High of $300,000 in Q2 per CoreLogic. Homeowners with mortgages gained a collective $3.6 trillion year over year in the second quarter of 2022. The following graph shows the average equity gain by state.

July 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers were down 1.4% from last month but was up 15.3% from July 2021. As the numbers are not inflation adjusted, the inventory-to-sales ratio YoY change is the best way to look at the data – and this data shows that the inventory is modestly shrinking with respect to sales which somewhat indicates a modestly growing economy (see graph below).

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 193 points or 0.61%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.6%,
• S&P 500 up 0.66%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 up 0.85%,
• USD index $109.63 down 0.19%,
• Gold $1718 down 0.51%,
• Bitcoin $19,402 up 0.56%,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.317% little changed

Today’s Economic Releases:

The 2022 Wildfire Risk Report was issued by CoreLogic showing that the wildfire risk landscape is evolving. With the U.S. population increasing and residential development extending farther from metro areas, more homes and businesses will face the threat of wildfires. Read the report [here].

In the week ending September 3, the 4 week moving average was 233,000, a decrease of 7,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The initial unemployment claims is suggesting the economy is modestly improving.

In July 2022, the Federal Reserve says consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.2%. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 11.6%, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 4.4%. There is no question consumer credit is increasing but it is being driven by by revolving credit (mostly credit cards) – and my prefered view using YoY analysis shows total credit is increasing 7.7%, revolving credit 14.9%, and non-revolving credit 5.7%. Unfortunately, much of the increase in credit is being caused by:

• inflation forcing many families to resort to credit cards to meet their daily needs., and
• goods and services inflation is running over 8%, and one would expect credit to expand at the same rate as inflation.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 436 points or 1.40%,
• Nasdaq closed up 2.14%,
• S&P 500 up 1.83%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 down 11.09% for the week,
• USD $109.80 down 0.41,
• Gold $1728 up 0.9%,
• Bitcoin $19,000 up 0.79% – Session Low 18,612,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.26% down 0.082

Today’s Economic Releases:

The goods and services deficit was $70.6 billion in July 2022, down $10.2 billion from $80.9 billion in June. July exports were $259.3 billion, $0.5 billion more than June exports. July imports were $329.9 billion, $9.7 billion less than June imports. Slowing imports usually is a sign of a slowing economy.

The Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts, shows economic activity was unchanged, on balance, since early July, with five Districts reporting slight to modest growth in activity and five others reporting slight to modest softening. More anecdotal evidence the economy is slowing.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 173 points or 0.55%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.74%,
• S&P 500 down 0.41%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $87 down 0.59%,
• USD $110.26 up 0.33,
• Gold $1700 up 0.01%,
• Bitcoin $18,732 down 5.07% – Session Low 18,732,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.342% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

In August 2022 the Institute for Supply Management’s Services PMI^® registered 56.9% up 0.2 points from July.

According to CoreLogic’s Home Price Insights report, home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, increased year over year by 15.8% in July 2022 compared with July 2021. On a month-over-month basis, home prices declined by 0.3% in July 2022 compared with June 2022. The home price increase cooling trend continues with CoreLogic HPI Forecast indicating that home prices will increase on a year-over-year basis by 3.8% from July 2022 to July 2023.