October 12, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Flash Flood Risk over Southern California, the Central Gulf Coast, and
the Southeast through tonight; Threat shifts Northeast for the end of the
week...

...Critical Fire Weather conditions over portions of the Central and
Northern Plains through Thursday...

...Below Normal Temperatures for much of the Central and Eastern US
through the end of the week...

12 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closes In The Red, Dow Trades In The Green All Session Until 3:45 pm. Investors Nervous Of Continued Selling

October 12, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 28 points or 0.10%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.09%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.33%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $87 down $1.57,
  • USD $113.31 up $0.01,
  • Gold $1682 down $3.80,
  • Bitcoin $19,140 up 1.71% – Session Low 19,003,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.898% down 0.041%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Producer Price Index for final demand increased by 0.4% in September 2022. The index for final demand advanced 8.5% for the 12 months that ended in September. This would suggest that the CPI will come in near 8% (see graph below).

The Federal Reserve released the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee which was held on September 20-21, 2022. The bottom line was that the existing policy of aggressively raising the federal funds rate to stop inflation by slowing the economy would continue. Some interesting highlights:

…In discussing potential policy actions at upcoming meetings, participants continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate to achieve the Committee’s objectives. 

… Participants observed that inflation remained unacceptably high and well above the Committee’s longer-run goal of 2 percent. Participants commented that recent inflation data generally had come in above expectations and that, correspondingly, inflation was declining more slowly than they had previously been anticipating. Price pressures had remained elevated and had persisted across a broad array of product categories.

… Participants noted that, in keeping with the Committee’s Plans for Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve’s Balance Sheet, balance sheet runoff had moved up to its maximum planned pace in September and would continue at that pace. They further observed that a significant reduction in the Committee’s holdings of securities was in progress and that this process was contributing to the move to a restrictive policy stance. 

… They noted also that inflation had not yet responded appreciably to policy tightening and that a significant reduction in inflation would likely lag that of aggregate demand. Participants observed that a period of real GDP growth below its trend rate, very likely accompanied by some softening in labor market conditions, was required.

… participants remarked that purposefully moving to a restrictive policy stance in the near term was consistent with risk-management considerations. Many participants emphasized that the cost of taking too little action to bring down inflation likely outweighed the cost of taking too much action. Several participants underlined the need to maintain a restrictive stance for as long as necessary, with a couple of these participants stressing that historical experience demonstrated the danger of prematurely ending periods of tight monetary policy designed to bring down inflation.

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A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Trans-Pacific Shipping Rates Nosedive As Demand Dries Up
  • Global Nickel Supply Shifts Into Surplus
  • AMC Entertainment struggles with falling stock, high debt load, and light blockbuster schedule
  • Nike moves to curb sneaker-buying bots and resale market with penalties
  • PepsiCo hikes forecast after higher pricing helps boost revenue
  • Demand for riskier home loans is high as interest rates soar
  • Financial Crisis-Era Warning Bell Chimes For S&P 500
  • FOMC Minutes Show Hawkish Fed Warn “Cost Of Doing Too Little Outweigh Cost Of Doing Too Much”
  • Investors nervous as market sell-off intensifies
  • Bond Report: Treasury yields drop by most in a week after Fed’s September meeting minutes

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

October 11, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 12, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Isolated Flash Flooding over parts of southern California through
Thursday morning, Flood threat shifts east through the end of the week...

...Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall over much of the Northeast Thursday
through Friday morning...

...Elevated Fire Danger for portions of the Central and Northern Plains
through Wednesday...

11 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Gives Back Earlier Gains In Choppy Trading, S&P 500 Sees 5-Session Losing Streak, Dow Closes In The Green

October 11, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 36 points or 0.12%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.10%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.65%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $88 down $2.42,
  • USD $113 up $0.06,
  • Gold $1673 down $1.50,
  • Bitcoin $18,998 down 1.24% – Session Low 18,894,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.931% up 0.046%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the September 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations continued to decline in the short term, but increased slightly in the medium and longer terms. Household spending expectations fell sharply, posting their largest one month decline since the series’ inception in June 2013. Home price growth expectations continued to decline in September and are now at their lowest levels since June 2020. Households’ expectations about future credit access one year from now improved somewhat.

NFIB’s Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.3 points in September to 92.1, making the ninth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Thirty percent of owners reported that inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

Inflation and worker shortages continue to be the hardest challenges facing small business owners. Even with these challenges, owners are still seeking opportunities to grow their business in the current period.

The federal budget deficit was $1.4 trillion in fiscal year 2022, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—about half of last year’s deficit of $2.8 trillion. Revenues were $850 billion (or 21 percent) higher and outlays were $548 billion (or 8 percent) lower than they were in fiscal year 2021. Outlays in fiscal year 2022 were boosted by the shift of certain payments—totaling $62 billion—from October 1, 2022 (the first day of fiscal year 2023), into September 2022 because October 1 fell on a weekend. If not for that, the 2022 deficit would have been about $1.3 trillion, CBO estimates.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Researchers Develop Lithium Battery With 40% More Energy Density
  • It’s bad enough that mortgage rates are over 7% – now it’s harder to qualify for a home loan
  • American Airlines raises revenue forecast after strong summer travel season
  • Amazon’s ‘Prime Early Access Sale’ is on — here are the best deals to shop now
  • The “Economy Is Starting To Go Through The Windshield” – El-Erian Blames The Fed For “Totally Avoidable” Crisis
  • The Fed: Fed’s Mester says there’s been no progress on inflation, so interest rates need to move higher

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

October 10, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 11, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
High Plains through Tuesday morning...

...There are Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings in effect over portions
of the interior Northeast as well as coastal Maine tonight...

10 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Stocks Continue To Slip Downward

October 10, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 94 points or 0.32%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.04%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.75%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $91 down $2.36,
  • USD $113.10 up $0.28,
  • Gold $1675 down $34,
  • Bitcoin $19,213 down 1.25% – Session Low 19,131,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.888% up 0.064%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

According to the Federal Reserve, consumer credit increased in August 2022 at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.3%. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 18.1%, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 5.1%. I have two comments:
1) If you inflation adjust the data, you will see a contraction year-over-year in the products being financed (see next graph)
2) Looking at non-inflation-adjusted consumer credit growth from the levels one year ago, total consumer credit has risen 8.1% with revolving credit (mainly credit cards) up 15.9% and non-revolving credit up 5.8% (see next graph).

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Prices At The Pump Are Ticking Higher After OPEC Decision
  • GM and Ford shares fall after UBS downgrades on expectations for weakening demand
  • Online holiday spending is expected to be weak after months of early discounting
  • New cars are finally back in stock — but Americans might not be able to afford them
  • Five Examples Of Bitcoin’s Real-World Utility
  • Bernanke says Fed shouldn’t use interest rates to ‘fine-tune’ financial stability risks

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

October 9, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation

October 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Pleasant weather continues in eastern third of nation as temperatures
climb closer to average...

...Frontal system moves onshore Pacific Northwest Monday evening, bringing
end to warm and dry conditions...

...Big warm-up across the Plains as temperatures soar into the 70s and 80s
early this week...

October 7, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus our usual 48-hour report.

October 8, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated on October 9, 2022 at 10:30 a.m. EDT rather than publishing a new more abbreviated article today.

NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast Maps.

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.

The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.

We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we include some worldwide forecasts also. We also include tonight an interesting podcast that reviews the summer monsoon and discusses how the La Nina will impact Fall and Winter.

It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.

07 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Stocks Fall, Treasury Yields Rise, Crude Prices Continue To Climb Unabated

October 7, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 630 points or 2.11%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 3.80%,
  • S&P 500 down 2.80%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $93 up $3.66,
  • USD $112.87 up $0.64,
  • Gold $1695 up $1.36
  • Bitcoin $19,445 down 2.89% – Session Low 19,364,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.885% up 0.061%
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 762 Canada +2 to 215

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in September 2022, and the unemployment rate edged down to 3.5 percent. Notable job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality and in health care. The prime reason the unemployment rate dropped was the civilian workforce was reduced by 59,000 (all while the population increased by 172,000). As you can see from the graph below, the monthly employment gains have been moderating for almost a year.

August 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 0.1% month-over-month and were up 16.1% year-over-year. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 1.3% month-over-month and were up 25.0% year-over-year.
The inventories/sales ratio was 1.31 while the August 2021 ratio was 1.21. Generally speaking, there is no correlation between inventory/sales ratios and recessions except that the ratios spike when a recession is underway.

CoreLogic’s updated damage estimates for Hurricane Ian are in, with an estimated $41 billion to $70 billion in insured and uninsured wind, storm surge, and inland flood losses to residential and commercial properties in the U.S. For a full breakdown of estimates, read the complete analysis.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Crude Oil Prices Set To Finish Week With Major Gain
  • Biden Warns Of Nuclear Armageddon As Russia Faces Setbacks In Ukraine
  • U.S. Rig Count Slides Amid Jump In Crude Prices
  • Biden’s Nuclear “Armageddon” Statements Not Based In Any Evidence: US Intelligence
  • Futures Movers: Oil up a 5th session, with U.S. prices gaining nearly 17% for the week after OPEC+ production cuts

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.