Who is John Maynard Keynes, anyway?
John Maynard Keynes was the best economist in the 20th century! 1. John Maynard Keynes? Below is an excerpt from Wikipedia – John Maynard Keynes. John Maynard Keynes, 1st Baron…
21 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Stocks Advance Sharply Closing In The Green
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 749 points or 2.47%,
- Nasdaq closed up 2.31%,
- S&P 500 up 2.37%,
- WTI crude oil settled at $85 up $0.14,
- USD $111.85 down $0.97,
- Gold $1660 up $22.90,
- Bitcoin $19,066 down 0.70% – Session Low 18,943,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.221% down 0.005%
- Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 771 Canada -6 to 210
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases:
The September 2022 Monthly Treasury Statement issued by US Treasury shows the calendar year had a deficit of $1,375,389,000,000.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Oil Could Surge Well Above $100 After Midterms
- Drilling Activity In The U.S. Sees Little Change This Week: Baker Hughes
- Amazon hires Hawaiian Air to fly rented Airbus cargo jets to replace older freighters
- CDC is discussing using oral polio vaccine for first time in 20 years to stop New York outbreak
- J6 Committee Subpoenas Trump Hours After Bannon Sentencing
- TaxWatch: IRS sets new 401(k) limits — investors can save a lot more money in 2023
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on October 20, 2022 – Yet Another La Nina Winter
Preparing to say goodbye to La Nina early in 2023. Now it looks like La Nina will remain until Spring.
Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of November plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.
It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. NOAA seems to be more confident about making predictions beyond six months. They even predict a good monsoon next summer which they never do this far in advance.
I will be writing a subsequent article on the challenges to the Agriculture Sector in certain parts of CONUS.
October 20, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation
Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.
...Above normal warmth in the Central U.S. through this weekend... ...Critical Fire Weather conditions for Montana and Wyoming... ...Increasing precipitation chances and decreasing temperatures in the West this weekend...
20 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Slips Again Closing Sharply Down Despite Strong Earnings
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 90 points or 0.30%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.61%,
- S&P 500 down 0.80%,
- WTI crude oil settled at 85 down $1.04,
- USD $112.88 down $0.01,
- Gold $1617 down $21.60,
- Bitcoin $19,066 down 0.70% – Session Low 18,943,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.237% up 0.108%
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases:
Manufacturing activity in the Philly Fed region continued to decline overall this month. The survey’s indicators for general activity and new orders remained negative, and the shipments index was little changed at a low but positive reading. The survey’s future general activity indexes suggest that the surveyed firms expect declines overall over the next six months. Another indication that the manufacturing sector of the U.S. is slowing.
In the week ending October 15, the advance figure for Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims seasonally adjusted 4 week moving average was 212,250, an increase of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 500 from 211,500 to 211,000. It is expected that the economic slowing as a result of the Fed fighting inflation will cause an increase in initial claims.
September 2022 existing-home sales slowed for the eighth consecutive month to a decline of 23.8% year-over-year. The median existing-home sales price is up 8.4% from one year ago. The inventory of unsold existing homes declined for the second straight month to the equivalent of 3.2 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace.
Imports into the USA generally indicate how the economy is doing. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach handle 40% of the USA container traffic and is a good indicator of the economy. Imports were down 18% YoY in September, and exports were up 2% YoY. The tea leaves are saying that the economy is slowing.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Falling Metal Prices Could Be A Boon For Manufacturers
- Asian Buyers Are Scooping Up Gold At Low Prices
- Here’s why it’s so hard to find cheap airfare this year — and why 2023 isn’t looking much better
- Big bargains will dominate the holiday season, but shoppers may not be sold
- Renewed threat of rail strike has supply chain managers ramping up contingency plans
- Existing home sales fall to a 10-year low in September, as mortgage rates soar
- Estimating Downside Market Risk
- Fed’s Inflation ‘Nowcast’ Tracker Suggests Price Pressures Increasing
- Market Snapshot: Dow down over 100 points in the final hour of trade despite strong earnings as Treasury yields grind higher
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
October 19, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation
Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.
...Record breaking cold will continue through Thursday morning in the Southeast... ...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories are in effect for portions of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Ohio River Valley... ...Dry weather will lead to Elevated to Critical Fire Weather conditions for the Central and Northern Plains and the Lower Ohio River Valley through Thursday...
19 October 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Looks Tired After Closing Moderately In The Red
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed down 100 points or 0.32%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.85%,
- S&P 500 down 0.67%,
- WTI crude oil settled at $86 up $1.91,
- USD $112.89 up $0.76,
- Gold $1634 down $21.50,
- Bitcoin $19,216 down 0.14% – Session Low 19,117,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.129% up 0.129%
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases:
New privately owned housing units continue its downward trend for permits issued (down 3.1% year-over-year – blue line on the graph below) and housing starts (down 7.7% year-over-year – red line on the graph below) – but construction completions remained strong (up 15.7% year-over-year – green line on the graph below). The climbing mortgage rates is affecting this sector.
The October 2022 Federal Reserve’s Beige Book states:
National economic activity expanded modestly on net since the previous report; however, conditions varied across industries and Districts. Four Districts noted flat activity and two cited declines, with slowing or weak demand attributed to higher interest rates, inflation, and supply disruptions. Retail spending was relatively flat, reflecting lower discretionary spending, and auto dealers noted sustained sluggishness in sales stemming from limited inventories, high vehicle prices, and rising interest rates.
The Beige Book summarizes comments from contacts outside the Federal Reserve system. The Beige Book has not been timely in documenting recessions – but this month it appears they are saying the economy grew very little.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- High Interest Rates Force Precious Metal Prices Lower
- Iran Cozies Up To Russia As Western Sanctions Sting
- Netflix adds more than 2.4 million subscribers, reveals details about password-sharing crackdown
- Wall Street eyes auto industry earnings for signs of ‘demand destruction’
- Procter & Gamble’s earnings beat as higher pricing offsets drop in volume
- IRS bumps up estate-tax exclusion to $12.92 million for 2023. Here’s what that means for wealthy Americans
- Abbott Laboratories predicts COVID-19 will be endemic this winter
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
October 18, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation
Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.
...Widespread record-breaking cold early Wednesday morning across the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley, Central/Southern Appalachians and Southeast... ...Freeze Warnings and Frost Advisories in effect for the Southern Plains, Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, Southeast, and Mid-Atlantic... ...Scattered Flash Flooding possible for portions of Maine through tonight...
18Oct2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: A Good Day For The Markets As Oil Prices Continue To Fall
Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 338 points or 1.12%,
- Nasdaq closed up 0.9%,
- S&P 500 up 1.14%,
- Gold $1656 down $7.80,
- WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $2.37,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.996% down 0.019%,
- USD index $112.03 little changed,
- Bitcoin $19,373 down $275
Today’s Economic Releases:
September 2022 Industrial production increased 5.3% year-over-year with the components: manufacturing up 4.8% year-over-year; mining up 11.1% year-over-year; and utilities up 0.5% year-over-year. All components improved over the previous month.
U.S. single-family home rental costs posted an 11.4% year-over-year increase in August 2022, marking the fourth straight month of annual deceleration. Even so, rental costs remained elevated, with annual growth running at about five times the rate than in August 2020 in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic. A shortage of available rental units continues to fuel price growth, although inflation and worries over a looming recession should begin to temper increases. CoreLogic’s detailed view by rental prices:
- Lower-priced (75% or less than the regional median): 12.9%, up from 7.4% in August 2021
- Lower-middle priced (75% to 100% of the regional median): 12.8%, up from 8.3% in August 2021
- Higher-middle priced (100% to 125% of the regional median): 12.3%, up from 9.4% in August 2021
- Higher-priced (125% or more than the regional median): 10.1%, down from 10.7% in August 2021
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
- Chinese Steel Manufacturers On The Brink Of Bankruptcy
- Rio Tinto Warns Commodity Boom Is Coming To An End As Downside Risks Emerge
- Is The Global Semiconductor Supply Squeeze Finally Coming To An End?
- Oil Prices Continue to Fall To Levels Not Seen In Weeks
- Homebuilder sentiment drops to half of what it was six months ago
- Is Wind Energy Becoming Too Expensive?
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
October 17, 2022: U.S. 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical and World Precipitation
Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.
...Widespread record tying/breaking morning lows will bring first freeze of the season to portions of the Midwest and South... ...Wintry precipitation continues for the Great Lakes Region... ...Heavy rain forecast for Maine on Tuesday, with scattered instances of flash flooding possible...