...Heavy rain and strong to severe storms expected through Wednesday night ahead of eastern U.S. cold front, followed by improving weather...
To me, the best economists over the past three centuries are Adam Smith in the 18th century, Karl Marx in the 19th century, and John Maynard Keynes in the 20th century!
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a 13.1% year-over-year gain, down from 16.0% in the previous month. CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp stated:
While the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index retracts rapidly amid surging mortgage rates — up 13% in August— a handful of markets located in Southeast and South continue to see over 20% annual gains, with Miami and Tampa topping the list. In contrast, Phoenix, Las Vegas and Dallas have now joined the other West Coast cities that are rapidly slowing since the spring peak in home price growth. At this pace, CoreLogic’s Home Price Index forecast suggests annual home price growth will slow to 9% by December, and further down to less than 1% by the end of the first quarter 2023.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey reported weaker conditions in October 2022. The composite manufacturing index fell from 0 in September to −10 in October, dipping below its August level. Two of its three component indexes deteriorated notably: the indexes for shipments and volume of new orders fell from 14 and −11 in September to −3 and −22 in October, respectively. The third component, the employment index, remained unchanged at 0 in October, as hiring challenges persisted.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
....There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower Mississippi/Tennessee Valleys and Southeast through Wednesday morning... �There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Western Ohio Valley and Middle /Lower Mississippi Valley through Wednesday morning... ...Snow for parts of the Cascades and the Northern Rockies...
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)’s three-month moving average moved up to +0.17 in September 2022 from +0.04 in August. Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the
three-month moving average above –0.70. The bottom line is that this index [which I consider the best coincident index] is saying the economy is healthy and expanding.
These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.
There are climate webinars held in different parts of the U.S. and at a webinar “North Central U.S. Climate” held on October 20, 2022, one of the presentations was titled Midwest/Great Plains Agricultural Update, October 20, 2022. The presentation was made by Brad Rippey – USDA. Analyst & Drought Monitor Author. Brad is the managing editor of the USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin and is one of the Editors of the Drought Monitor so he is in a unique position to understand the crop situation in the U.S. If I was a little more patient, I might have a recording of his presentation to share with you but I thought that just presenting his slides would be informative.I am not sure how long it takes for the recording of those webinars to get posted.
I am presenting the slides without comments. If you look carefully, I think you will be able to see that the trend in yield increases for key crops has topped out. Is this global warming or a long cycle? It is hard to say but it is very concerning. Some of the current issues were better explained in his comments and the Q&A afterward. But I think readers will get a good grasp of the situation from the slides. I have personal experience with river levels being too high as the Ohio River Company was a client and that was a frequent problem for them. River levels being too low is new to me. So it is not just a water shortage for farms and cities but also the water-based transportation system in the U.S.. For those who do not know it, our inland water transportation system is one of the key natural endowments of the U.S.
I have often published articles on the USDA Executive Briefings and some of Brad’s slides come from that source but he has access to all sorts of good stuff so I wanted to take advantage of that. He was kind enough to send me a PDF of his presentation so that is what is being presented in this article.
...A robust low pressure system is bringing the first widespread wintry weather event of the season across the northern and central Rockies into the northern High Plains... ...Severe weather is possible tonight over the eastern portion of the northern to central Plains... ...Another low pressure system will bring a quick round of heavy rain, strong to severe thunderstorms across the central U.S. Monday and Tuesday...
...A robust low pressure system will bring the first widespread wintry weather event of the season across the Cascades, northern and central Rockies as well as the northern High Plains through the weekend into Monday... ...Much colder air will surge across the western U.S. while much above normal temperatures surge north into the upper Midwest and the Great Lakes... ...Fire weather risk is critical over parts of the central Plains...
As expected, at the 20th CPC (Communist Party of China) National Congress, Xi Jinping was re-elected the party’s General Secretary for the third time, thus paving the way for him to be re-elected the Chinese President for the “precedent-shattering” third term at the next Chinese People’s Congress in early 2023.
NOAA updates many of its weather outlooks daily or even more frequently and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. We provide a daily report which focuses on the shorter-term predictions but also has links to all the partial-month outlooks. Because WordPress does not provide the ability to have these maps automatically updated, our daily report shows some of the maps which we update each evening plus the links to the other important weather forecast Maps.
Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the next 28 days.
The week 3-4 outlook is only updated by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Service once a week on Friday. Thus, when we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the media and online.
We also include In Part II of the article the other information from the daily 48-hour forecast article. Importantly, this time of the year, it includes updates on tropical events. In both Parts I and II we also include some worldwide forecasts.
It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts If you read this article a few days or more after it is published. And there will be a totally updated version next Friday.
