10June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Gaps Down At The Opening Bell, Equities Have Traded In A Sideways Narrow Zone On Fractionally Low Volume And Closed At Session Lows, Inflation Rate YoY MAY Rose To 8.6% From 8.3% – 40 Year High, Michigan Consumer Sentiment Prel JUN Plummets To 50.2 From 58.4, Bitcoin Down 35% Since Beginning Of April, And Now The Good News – NOT!

June 10, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 880 points or 2.73%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 3.52%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 2.91%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 121, down 0.88%,
  • USD $104.17 up 0.86%,
  • Gold 1871 up 2.01%,
  • Bitcoin $29053 down 3.43%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.115% / 3.157%
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +6 to 733 Canada +24 to 141

Today’s Economic Releases:

The market expected the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to moderate – but instead, the May 2022 CPI reverted back to the previous March peak of 8.6% year-over-year. Recent increases by the Federal Reserve to the federal funds rate are yet to have the desired effect igniting market fears of more aggressive actions by the Federal Reserve to drive down inflation.

The biggest drivers of inflation continue to be energy (automotive fuels, fuel oil, and natural gas). This month all sectors EXCEPT medical experienced high inflation.

The NFIB Vice President of Federal Government Relations Kevin Kuhlman issued the following statement:

With inflation reaching a near 40-year high, small businesses continue to be plagued by rising prices with little hope for relief on the horizon. As recent data shows, inflation remains the top problem for one-third of small business owners, has a direct impact on small business optimism, which is at a near 50-year low, and continues to harm the small business recovery. With the detriment of inflation, worker shortages, and supply chain disruptions, the Biden administration and Congress must adopt a do no harm approach and rule out any tax increases and mandates on small businesses, and specifically promote policies that would strengthen the small business recovery.

Because of the high inflation, real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased 0.6 percent from April to May, seasonally adjusted, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today.

Preliminary June 2022 Michigan Consumer Sentiment declined 14% from May (down 41.3% year-over-year) and reached a value comparable to the trough reached in the middle of the 1980 recession.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Oil Rig Count Jumps As Crude Holds At $120
  • U.S. drops Covid testing requirement for international travelers
  • GM and Lockheed are taking their lunar rover project to the commercial space market
  • Jan. 6 Committee: An Exercise In Brainwashing The American People
  • Energy and food drive US inflation to highest for 40 years
  • Metals Stocks: Gold ends higher Friday, books strong weekly gain as investors head for havens after hot U.S. inflation report

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

NOAA Updates the ENSO Forecast on June 9, 2022- Maybe Yes, Maybe No on La Nina Ending in 2022

June 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer. Then it’s forecast to strengthen again in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.

Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are still difficult to predict but seem to be slightly lower than the estimate last month. I am not exactly sure how you define a Three-Peat. If it has to do with extending into early Winter the odds seem to be a bit lower. This is not likely to change the forecast for Winter but might change the forecast for next Spring. Finally, there is now more disagreement among meteorological agencies as to when this La Nina will end.

09June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Dumps During The Last Half-Hour, Investors Spooked By Inflation Data, Initial Jobless Claims A Disaster, Down During Last Four Weeks, Tech Stocks Lead Equities Slide, Major Indexes Close At Session Lows

June 9, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 638 points or 1.94%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.75%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 12.38%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 121, down 1.118%,
  • USD $103.20 up 0.66%,
  • Gold 1847 down 0.69%,
  • Bitcoin $30091 down 0.89%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.18% / 3.047%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Without adjusting for inflation, household net worth marginally declined in 1Q2022 according to the Federal Reserve’s Z.1 Financial Accounts.

The four-week moving average for unemployment for initial unemployment claims continues its worsening trend for the week ending 04 June 2022.

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., May gains are 30% lower than the 219,000 teen jobs added in the same month last year. It is the lowest number of teen job gains in May since 2018 when 130,000 jobs were added. Employment in Retail, a major employer for teens, fell by 61,000 jobs in May, according to the monthly employment situation from the BLS. Over half of the losses occurred in general merchandising stores.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • White House Ups Anti-Oil Company Rhetoric
  • Europe Announces First Interest Rate Hike In A Decade To Combat Inflation
  • Travel industry calls on White House to end Covid-19 testing requirement for travelers from overseas
  • Stocks Slump, Dollar Jumps Ahead Of CPI ‘Event Risk’
  • For The First Time Ever, The National Average Gas Price Is $5
  • Distributed Ledger: Ethereum close to its major upgrade, but why has it fallen more than bitcoin?

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

08June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Has Trading Sideways For The last Seven Sessions And Is Range-Bound, Trading Volume Tapering Off As Investors Mull Thoughts Of An Economic Slowdown And Rising Inflation: Stagflation

June 8, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 269 points or 0.73%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.73%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.08%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 122, up 2.690%,
  • USD $102.33 flat 0.00%,
  • Gold 1853 up 0.17%,
  • Bitcoin $30205 down 1.05%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.59% / 3.029%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The federal budget deficit was $423 billion in the first eight months of fiscal year 2022, CBO estimates. That amount is about one-fifth of the $2.1 trillion shortfall recorded during the same period in 2021.

Inventories for wholesalers were up 24% year-over-year from April 2021. However, when one looks at inventories-to-sales ratios – this sector looks healthy.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • What Is Fueling The Surge In Gasoline Prices?
  • U.S. Natural Gas Prices Drop After Explosion At Freeport [Tx] LNG Terminal
  • Spirit Airlines postpones shareholder vote on Frontier deal days after JetBlue sweetens competing offer
  • “The Summer Of Starvation”: Soaring Fertilizer Prices Unleash Chaos, Hunger Worldwide
  • Market Extra: This hedge fund manager called inflation early. He now says consumer prices will finish 2022 at a level that `screams failure by the Fed’

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

07June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Major Indexes Gap Down On The Opening Bell To See-Saw Higher Closing Near The Last Session Highs, Investors Shake Off Target Profit Warning Followed By Choppy Trading

June 7, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 264 points or 0.80%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.89%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.95%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 120, up 0.602%,
  • USD $102.53 up 0.12%,
  • Gold 1854 up 0.18%,
  • Bitcoin $30950 up 4.77%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.52% / 2.988%

Today’s Economic Releases:

According to an analysis by Calculated Risk, May 2022 rail carloads are down year-over-year. In normal economic times, contraction in the transport sector is a recession flag. But this contraction may be a sign of the supply chain catching up with demand combined with a modest economic slowing.

Consumer Credit expanded in April 2022 according to Federal Reserve headlines for G.19 data. However, consumer debt payments are about mid-range for the period since 1980 – this will worsen as interest rates rise.

CoreLogic says home price growth continues its record-breaking streak growing by 20.9% year-over-year in April 2022. However, this growth is forecast to slow to 5.6% in the period April 2022 to April 2023.

The BEA reports that the trade deficit was $87.1 billion in April 2022 – down $20.6 billion from $107.7 billion in March. Interestingly, imports declined which is a usual recession flag.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Upward Pressure On Oil Prices Is Only Going To Increase
  • Target expects squeezed profits from an aggressive plan to get rid of unwanted inventory
  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Target, Kohl’s, Peloton, and more
  • Stocks & Bonds Spike As Growth/Stagflation Scares Soar
  • Bond Report: 10- and 30-year Treasury yields drop by most in 2 weeks as investors await Friday’s U.S. inflation data

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

06June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Major Wall Street Indexes Gap Up To Last Thursday’s Closing High At The Opening Bell, Then Fall Sharply To Friday’s Support, Last Half-Hour Pushes Equities Solidly Into The Green

June 6, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 15 points or 0.04%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.40%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.31%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 118, down 2.21%,
  • USD $102.42 up 0.29%,
  • Gold 1842 up 1.05%,
  • Bitcoin $31444 up 6.30%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.87% / 3.042%

Today’s Economic Releases:

None

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Russias Oil Export Earnings Set To Decline On Heavily Discounted Urals
  • LNG Tanker Rates Soar To Highest Level In 10 Years
  • Solid Power, backed by Ford and BMW, begins pilot production of innovative EV battery with longer range and quicker recharging
  • Bitcoin & Bond Yields Soar As Stocks Puke Payrolls-Gains
  • Texas AG Launches Investigation Into Twitter; Alleges Company Lied About Number Of Bots
  • Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield tops 3% ahead of this week’s CPI reading

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

NOAA Updates their Week 3-4 Outlook on June 3, 2022 – Easterly Wave and Monsoon Onset Likely

June 4, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at !:30 am EDT Monday, June 6, 2022 to include the Tropical Storm Alex Tracking Map which mostly now threatens Bermuda on Monday.  A near miss rather than a direct hit is expected.

On Tuesday, we discussed the NOAA update of their Outlook for June 2022. We only had 24 days of the short-term outlooks at that time so I decided to publish the Weeks 3 – 4 Outlook when it was issued which was today. It is always issued on a Friday. This combined with the discussion issued with the Outlook provides additional insight into how June weather will evolve.

The Weeks 3 and 4 Outlook just released and the precipitation Outlook (it remains an experimental product of NOAA), seems to confirm the Outlook for the Month of June with the possible exception that parts of the Southwest may be impacted by an Easterly Wave (from tropical activity) and an early onset of the North American Monsoon (NAM).

03June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: May Employment Report Shows 46K Fewer New Jobs Than Last Month, Unemployment Rate Remains The Same At 3.6%, Equities Gap Down At The Opening Bell, Remain In The Red At Closing

June 3, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 349 points or 1.05%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.47%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.64%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 120, up 2.96%,
  • USD $102.17 up 0.42%,
  • Gold 1851 down 0.01%,
  • Bitcoin $29547 down 3.05%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury up 0.29% / 2.944%

Today’s Economic Releases:

BLS employment data for May 2022 shows a rise in payroll employment by 390,000 and the unemployment rate remaining at 3.6%. The big gains this month were in transportation/warehousing, leisure/hospitality, government, education, and health care. On the surface, this was a very good employment report. HOWEVER, the retail sector lost over 60,000 jobs with most retail sectors (even non-store retailers) adding to the decline.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • New Drilling Stalls Out In The U.S. Oil Patch
  • Israel Warns It Will Use Right To Self-Defense To Keep Nukes Out Of Iran
  • ‘Lots of luck on his trip to the moon’: Biden shrugs off Elon Musk’s economic fears, touts Ford investments
  • Oil Pops, Stocks Drop As Hawks & ‘Hurricanes’ Killed The Dead-Cat-Bounce

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

02June2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Skyrockets Past Resistance, Nasdaq Cuts Two-Day Losing Streak, Equities Scream Higher On So-So Morning Financial Reports, Investors Oblivious To Weak Microsoft Outlook, Fed hike Fears

June 2, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 435 points or 1.33%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.75%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.84%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 117, up 2.121%,
  • USD $101.80 down 0.73%,
  • Gold $1850 up $10,
  • Bitcoin up 0.68% to $33278,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury down 0.16% / 2.9%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The four-week rolling average of Initial Unemployment Claims modestly declined this past week and remains historically low.

ADP’s Private Employment for May 2022 declined to 128,000. Nela Richardson, chief economist of ADP wrote:

Under a backdrop of a tight labor market and elevated inflation, monthly job gains are closer to pre-pandemic levels. The job growth rate of hiring has tempered across all industries, while small businesses remain a source of concern as they struggle to keep up with larger firms that have been booming as of late.

1Q2022 Non-farm business productivity declined 0.6% year-over-year whilst labor costs increased 8.2%.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, finding suitable employees for small business open positions continues to be a problem. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg wrote:

The labor force participation rate is slowly rising but small businesses continue to have a hard time filling their open positions. The number of job openings continues to exceed the number of unemployed workers which has produced a tight labor market and added pressure on wage levels.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Economic Officials Says Biden Considering Oil & Tax Windfall Tax
  • Walmart is using its thousands of stores to battle Amazon for e-commerce market share
  • Ford to add over 6,000 U.S. jobs as it boosts electric vehicle production and prepares for a new Mustang
  • ‘Bad News Is Good News’ – Stocks Soar As Macro-Meltdown Accelerates
  • The Sheer Stupidity Of Student Loan Forgiveness While Inflation Rages Out Of Control
  • Market Movers: MM Forgings zooms 9% on EV foray; La Opala starts new factory

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.