Three-Peat or Triple-Dip is not a Cause for Celebration

March 26, 2022Posted inClimateNo Comments

We have discussed this before but the fact that there is a possibility of a third La Nina Winter is a good reason to discuss it again. I would say that is is not real likely. But if it happens, it would be very serious. So that is why it is worth discussing. We have not previously discussed how Global Warming makes any drought more dangerous but that should be obvious. We know that the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) results in a higher ratio of La Nina to El Nino Events. But we have not discussed how Global Warming might impact the PDO. So we are not addressing the broader question of whether or not Global Warming is increasing the chance of a third year of La Nina but simply looking at the evidence that a third year is a possibility. It seems that NOAA may be more concerned about the possibility than some other weather forecasting agencies in other part of the world, but we will attempt to show that their concern is not unreasonable.

25Mar2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Mixed With The DOW Up 153 Points, NASDAQ Down 0.2%, S&P 500 Up 0.5%, WTI Crude relatively Unchanged Settling At $112 Bbl, Bitcoin Up Moderately to 44500

March 25, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Wall Street zigzag across the unchanged line for most of the session, remaining in the red until the remaining hour. Then, ending mostly higher and booked weekly gains. But, many investors fear a recession is around the corner.

Ending the week, the S&P 500 finishes higher and notches another straight weekly gain. In addition, new home buyers saw mortgage rates climb to almost 5% in the second jump this week.

The ongoing hawkish push is higher in market expectations for 2022’s rate-hike trajectory, with nine more rate-hikes now expected by the end of December.

Yields on 2- and 10-year Treasury notes climbed to their highest daily levels in almost three years today. In addition, treasury notes posted their biggest weekly gains in several years as investors reacted to Russia’s possible reassessment of its ambitions in the month-long war in Ukraine.

Today’s aggressive sell-off of U.S. government debt pushed yields higher. Meanwhile, the spread between 5- and 30-year rates shrank below three basis points and teetered on the brink of inverting.

It’s been another very busy week for oil and gas markets. Putin threatened European gas imports, a storm knocked a major oil pipeline offline, and a Saudi oil terminal came under missile attack. Nevertheless, Brent is above $120 per barrel as bullish sentiment remains dominant.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • High Gasoline Prices Are Starting To Hurt Demand
  • Saudi Aramco Facility Fire Under Control
  • Gm To Halt Pickup Truck Production In Indiana Due To Chip Shortage
  • 57% OF U.S. Households Paid No Federal Income Tax Last Year As Covid Took A Toll, Study Says
  • Stocks, Gold, & Oil Surge On Week As Yield Curve Carnage Screams ‘Recession’

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

24Mar2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Three Main Indexes Closed At Session Highs, DOW Closes Up 349 Points, NASDAQ Up 1.9%, S&P 500 Up 1.4%, WTI Settles At $111, Bitcoin Up Fractionally At 43900, Financial Reporting This Morning Was Bullish

March 24, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Beginning the pre-market news reported Initial Jobless Claims 19/MAR was up 187K from 215K, Jobless Claims 4-week Average 19/MAR was up 211.75K from 223.25K. Continuing Jobless Claims 12/MAR was up to 1350K from 1417K and Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash MAR was up to 58.5 from 57.3. In my opinion, that is what sent Wall Street higher, not the doom scrolling. Then the indexes closed at session highs on average green trading volume.

Equities might have rallied higher if we didn’t have a war in Ukraine and idiots running our countries. O.K., not idiots, but they sure are appearing to be irresponsible. E.g., having Russia invade Ukraine and J.B. cancel the Keystone pipeline. Inflation remains a problem, a really big problem, that the Fed has done nothing about it except talk. I can’t imagine mid-term elections have to do with kicking the can down the road.

Laugh For The Day: Biden says he’d be ‘very fortunate’ to face Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Billionaire Koch Brothers Are Betting Big On An Electric Future
  • The U.S. Is Preparing To Send Major LNG Shipments To Europe
  • Diesel Crisis In Europe Worsens As Austrian Energy Giant Limits Sales
  • The U.S. Is Preparing To Send Major LNG Shipments To Europe
  • Bitcoin, Bullion, Big-Tech, & Bond Yields Rise As Crude Crumbles

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

How To Stop Inflation Cold

March 24, 2022Posted inmacroeconomics2 Comments

Over the years, I have written in many venues about the extreme importance of four economic rights and responsibilities and their transformation into four Concordian economic policies. My writings on this topic have consistently received the most readers, all over the world.

To my unending surprise, spurred by our immediate needs I have recently discovered
another major—major—ability of Concordian economics. Here it is: With the tools offered by
Concordian economics, we can stop inflation cold.

Let us see how.

23Mar2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: DOW Sees Worst Day In Two Weeks As Oil Prices Spike Above 120, and More Fed Officials Call For Half-Point Rate Hikes, DOW Down 449 Points, NASDAQ Down 1.3%, WTI Settles At 114, Bitcoin Up To 42300

March 23, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Today’s lame excuse for Wall Street dipping into the red is inflation, the war in Ukraine, and sky-high fuel costs. Tomorrow investors may feel better about today’s doom scrolling and push the market back up.

However, Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic advisor at Allianz, said, “If I’m investing over the next 12-month horizon, I would reduce equities at this point. I would take some money off the table,” pointed out. I don’t think the market has factored in yet what’s going to happen to the economy.”

Jeff Kilburg, the chief investment officer of Sanctuary Wealth, said yesterday, “There’s a little bit of a breather today, but the breather really is signaling that equities have the ability to continue to move higher.” I wonder how Jeff feels about the market today?

MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate 18/MAR are up, MBA Mortgage Applications 18/MAR are down, and Fed Chair Powell made a speech on how he will control inflation and make investors feel better – NOT! Oh, and crude oil imports were up this last financial reporting period as Brent crude advanced nearly 5% to top $120 per barrel.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • TotalEnergies: Oil Majors’ Exit From Russia Easier Said Than Done
  • Walmart Sues B.J.’s Wholesale Claiming It Stole Self-Checkout Technology
  • SpaceX Raises Prices For Rocket Launches And Starlink Satellite Internet As Inflation Hits Raw Materials
  • Omicron’s ‘Stealth’ Sub-variant BA.2 Could Go ‘Wild’ In Europe Before Going Global, Top Epidemiologist Says
  • People Face Biggest Drop In Living Standards In 66 Years

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

22Mar2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stocks Extend Historic Short-Squeeze Melt-Up As Recession & Rate-Cut Odds Rise, DOW Closes Up 254 Points, NASDAQ Up 2.0%, S&P 500 Ends Session Up 1.1%, WTI Settles AT 109, Gold At 1922

March 22, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

All three indexes advanced higher Tuesday, with the NASDAQ Composite leading the other indexes higher. At the same time, Treasury yields and Brent crude prices continued to climb as investors brace for interest rate hikes following yesterday’s hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Powell.

Fears of a recession from inflation have not abated as Carl Icahn says there ‘very well could be a recession or even worse.’ A bond selloff has deepened after yesterday’s comments from Jerome Powell, which said the Fed is prepared to act even more aggressively to tackle inflation. A lot of aggressive talk from the Fed and little action so far.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Europe Divided Over New Oil And Coal Sanctions
  • Inflation Is Spiking The Cost Of Pet Parenthood Yet Owners Are Still Splurging On Care
  • Rocket Builder Firefly Aiming For Second Launch Attempt In May, Raises $75 Million
  • Nike Sees Signs Of Recovery In China, Which Could Be A Good Omen For Other Retailers

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

21Mar2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: DOW Down 202 Points, NASDAQ Down 0.4%, S&P 500 Finishes Flat Lower -0.04%, Bonds Battered, Stocks Slide As Powell Channels Volcker, Crude Surges To $112

March 21, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell leaves the door open for rate hikes as high as 50 basis points. Gold futures also ended slightly higher at 1935 as investors weigh Powell’s comments. The DOW snapped its five-day winning streak, mostly on Powell’s remarks saying the Fed will take ‘necessary steps’ to address high inflation.

Today’s session retreat is mainly due to investors’ fears that the Fed can not or will not contain inflation stemming from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Also, in the news are, sky-high prices could cause shipping costs to climb well into 2023. Especially true if some analysts predict crude reaching $300 a barrel. The rally in oil prices continued today as the war in Ukraine approaches its first month with no conclusion in sight. WTI crude futures (CL1:COM) climbed to over $112 a barrel after falling to as low $93/bbl last week (from $130 the week before).

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine Is A Catastrophe For Its Oil Industry
  • Investors See Growth Opportunities In Femtech Devoted To Women’s Health
  • U.S. Space Companies Poised To Benefit As Russia Cuts Ties To Industry, Analyst Says
  • “Some F*ckery Is Afoot” – Rogan Slams “Outright Crazy” Media Coverage Of Hunter Biden Laptop Story
  • Fed Will Consider More-Aggressive Interest Rate Hikes: Powell

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

To Unify Our Country – The Splendor of Interdependence

March 21, 2022Posted ineconomicsNo Comments

“A house divided against itself cannot stand.” It will collapse.

It is no longer a question of words. We have reached the point at which, as Lewis Carroll recognized so long ago, we have become the Masters of Words. Words have the meaning we give them.

Take just the words “terrorist” and “patriot.” Apply them to the fact of the assault on the Capital on January 6 of last year. You will see that there is a precise reversal of meaning when used by the right or by the left of our political spectrum.

Worse. Each group has developed a detailed ideology to justify its positions; and each group maintains, with greater or lesser justification, that it is contemplating the truth.

Words can no longer unify our country.