15Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Major Indexes Opened Sharply Lower And Close Over 2% Down, Largest Decline In 3 Months

December 15, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 764 points or 2.25%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 3.23%,
  • S&P 500 down 2.49%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $1.16,
  • USD $104.60 up $0.83,
  • Gold $1787 down $31.60,
  • Bitcoin $17,428 down $394 – Session Low 17,351,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.45% down 0.053%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Philadephia Fed’s manufacturing index remained negative in December 2022 but rose 6 points to -13.8 this month (see Chart 1). This is its fourth consecutive negative reading and sixth negative reading in the past seven months. Thirty-one percent of the firms reported declines in activity, while 17 percent reported increases. The majority (51 percent) reported no change.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November 2022 are up 6.5% above November 2021 – however, inflation-adjusted growth declined 0.7% year-over-year which suggests a modest decline in economic growth.

The combined value of manufacturers’ and trade sales (business sales) for October 2022 was up 10.1% from October 2021. Manufacturers and trade inventories  (business inventories) for October were up 16.5% from October 2021. The total business inventories/sales ratio was 1.33 (blue line on the graph below) – The October 2021 ratio was 1.25. A growing ratio suggests a slowing economy.

Industrial production declined to 2.5% year-over-year (blue line in the graph below) in November 2022. Year-over-year for the components: manufacturing (declined to 1.0% – red line in the graph below), mining (declined to 3.6% – orange line in the graph below), utilities (increased to 2.6% – green line in the graph below). Capacity utilization moved down 0.2 percentage points in November to 79.7 percent, a rate that is 0.1 percentage points above its long-run (1972–2021) average.

Business activity declined in New York State, according to firms responding to the December 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index fell sixteen points to -11.2. New orders moved slightly lower, while shipments edged higher.

In the week ending December 10, the unemployment insurance initial claims 4-week moving average was 227,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 230,000 to 230,250.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Sydney Based Researchers Announce Lithium Ion Battery Rival
  • Germany Greenlights Purchase Of U.S. Fighter Jets
  • FuboTV hit with cyberattack during World Cup semifinal match
  • Long Covid medical costs average $9,500 in the first six months, as patients become ‘health-system wanderers’
  • Where Walmart CEO Doug McMillon expects inflation to stick around in 2023
  • Delta expects 2023 earnings to nearly double thanks to ‘robust’ travel demand
  • Vote Recount Flips Massachusetts Midterm Race From Republican To Democrat By 1 Vote
  • Bond Report: Flight-to-safety trade sends 10- and 30-year Treasury yields to one-week lows
  • Market Snapshot: Dow down over 700 points in the final hour of trade as stocks head for the biggest decline in 3 months

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

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Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 14, 2022

December 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:04 p.m. December 15, 2022

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight, and the next 48 hours from Thursday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Forecast.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 16 2022 - 00Z Sun Dec 18 2022

...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will continue through tonight for
portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...

...Significant icing for parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic through this
evening...

...Heavy snow for parts of the interior Northeast through Friday...

14Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Decline – Federal Reserve Is Viewed As Hawkish Even With A 50 Basis Point Increase In The Federal Funds Rate

December 14, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 143 points or 0.42%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.76%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.61%,
  • Gold $1819 down $6.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.98,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.476% down 0.026 points,
  • USD index $103.63 down $0.35,
  • Bitcoin $17,827 up $54.60

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

U.S. import prices moderated in November 2022 to 2.7% year-over-year from 4.1% the previous month. Lower nonfuel and fuel prices contributed to the November decline in U.S. import prices. U.S. export prices also moderated to 6.3% from 7.4% the previous month. Lower nonagricultural prices in November more than offset higher agricultural prices. This is another sign that inflation is moderating.

The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies rose 34% from 71 in October to 95 in November 2022. November’s total is down 3% from the 98 CEOs who left their posts in the same month last year, according to a report released Wednesday by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.
So far this year, companies have announced 1,135 CEO exits, down 8% from the 1,231 CEOs who left their posts through November 2021. It is the lowest January-to-November total since 2017, when 1,065 CEO exits were announced.
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4-1/4 to 4-1/2% – which is a 50 basis point increase from the former 3.75% to 4% rate. This was in line with market expectations – and this increase was a modest decline from the previous 75 basis points increases. The Fed also released their economic projections where in general inflation will be lower next year and GDP about the same as 2022.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • WTO Ruling Reignites U.S.-China Trade Spat
  • Fed Raises Interest Rates By Half Percentage Point
  • Here’s what changed in the new Fed statement
  • Fed interest rate hike sends business loans to steepest cost since 2007, breaking 10% sticker shock level
  • Another Big Reversal FOMC Day: Markets Call Hawkish Fed’s Bluff
  • Powell Opens The Door To Higher Inflation Target “As Part Of A Longer-Term Project”
  • Deportations Plunge Under Biden In US Interior: Data
  • Fed hikes rates again and warns of more rises

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 13, 2022

December 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:30 pm December 14, 2022

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight, and the next 48 hours from Wednesday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Forecast.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 15 2022 - 00Z Sat Dec 17 2022

...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will continue through Thursday in
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest...

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will continue to threaten
portions of the South and Southeast through tonight...

...Accumulating snow and freezing rain likely to impact the interior
Northeast and northern/central Appalachians Thursday into Friday...

 

13Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Major Indexes Closed In The Green Near Session Lows. CPI Continues To Moderate.

December 13, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 104 points or 0.30%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.01%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.73%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $75 up $2.25,
  • USD $104.97 up $1.10,
  • Gold $1823 up $30.40,
  • Bitcoin $17,751 up 3.86% – Session Low 17,107,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.519% down 0.095%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

Inflation Pressures Ease Slightly on Main Street but Remains the Top Business Problem according to November’s Optimism Index reading stays below 49-year average. Inflation remains the top business problem for small business owners, with 32% of owners reporting it as their single most important problem in operating their business, five points lower than July’s highest reading since the fourth quarter of 1979. The Small Business Optimism Index rose 0.6 points in November to 91.9.

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) over the last 12 months increased by 7.1% (blue line in the graph below) – but has declined almost 2% from the high mark this year AND is now at the lowest level in 2022.  The index for all items less food and energy declined to 6.0% (red line in the graph below). This does take some pressure off of the Federal Reserve as it is beginning to show their policies are making progress in lowering inflation.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Can Supply Chains Keep Up With A Looming Construction Boom?
  • Supply Chain Woes Slow U.S. Solar Boom
  • Ford boosts the production of the electric F-150 Lightning pickup truck
  • Boeing airplane deliveries picked up in November
  • United Airlines is buying at least 100 Boeing Dreamliners to replace aging wide-body jets
  • Hotel prices and airfare decline as travel demand cools after a summer surge
  • Supreme Court upholds California ban on flavored tobacco
  • OPEC Production Fell In November, But 3 Members Actually Boosted Output
  • Futures Movers: Oil prices end at a more than 1-week high on cold weather forecasts, CPI reading

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

 

Weather Forecast: Tonight, Tomorrow, Five Days, 10 Days U.S. and World December 9, 2022 – Updated as Needed

December 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:06 p.m. December 13, 2022. Thursday afternoon and evening map is now included.

Here is what we are paying attention to Today and the next 48 hours from Tuesday Afternoon’s NWS Forecast. During the week we publish each morning. On Weekends, we will publish late Friday night and do updates during the weekend. Either way, you will have current forecasts with a longer forecast on the weekends. This is a combination of a U.S. plus World Weather Article.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
336 PM EST Tue Dec 13 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Dec 14 2022 - 00Z Fri Dec 16 2022

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms and a Slight to
Moderate Risk of excessive rainfall over the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Central Gulf Coast through Thursday...

...Heavy snow over the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and over parts of the
Lower Great Lakes, Central Appalachians, and the northern Mid-Atlantic on
Thursday...

...Rain/freezing rain over parts of the Upper Midwest on Wednesday and
Mid-Atlantic/Central Appalachians on Thursday...

12Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: U.S. Financial Markets Open Higher And Close Near Session Highs

December 12, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 529 points or 1.58%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.26%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.43%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $2.39,
  • USD $104.97 up $0.20,
  • Gold $1792 down $19.30,
  • Bitcoin $17,153 up 0.18% – Session Low 16,890,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.613% up 0.046%

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the November 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows that inflation expectations decreased in November at the short, medium, and longer terms. Home price growth expectations continued to decline. Labor market expectations strengthened, while household income growth expectations increased to a new series high. Median inflation expectations decreased at both the one- and three-year-ahead horizons in November to 5.2% and 3.0% respectively.

Per the monthly Treasury Statement issued by US Treasury, November has been a deficit month 68 times out of 69 fiscal years since there are no major tax due dates in this month.  The deficit in November 2022 was $249 billion.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Steelmakers Worry Prices Could Hit Break-Even Thresholds
  • Electric school buses are giving kids a cleaner, but costlier, ride to class
  • Gen Z loves Minions, horror, and Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson
  • SpaceX launches lunar lander for Japanese venture ispace, which aims to create an economy around the moon
  • ‘Early filers’ should wait to submit their tax return in 2023, the IRS warns. Here’s why
  • Marijuana industry sales slow down after pandemic surge
  • Dovish Fed Will Send Oil Back To $100: BofA
  • “Net Energy Gain” – US Scientists Make Breakthrough In Nuclear Fusion
  • Market Snapshot: Dow rises 300 points to start a week rich with inflation and central bank news

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Looking Ahead 28 Days from December 9, 2022 Plus Weekend Report

December 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:55 p.m. Monday December 12, 2022

Once a week we show many of the actual forecast maps not just provide the links to these maps. This makes it easier for the reader. Our report provides a separate forecast for Days 1 and 2, Days  1-5, Days 6 -10, Days 8 – 14, and weeks 3 and 4. We also include a next-day and 10-Day Global Average Temperature and Cumulative Precipitation Forecast. This provides information that is useful to readers in terms of planning their activities for the weekend and the next 28 days. I will update the article with more recent short-term forecasts: Saturday through Monday

Over the weekend and into Monday there will be frequent updates of the short-term forecast.

Looking out 28 days, what we see is

  • For Temperature: Very cold air entering the Northwest and over the course of 28 days moving east to the Northern Great Plains while moderating to some extent.
  • For Precipitation: An unusually wet pattern that gradually becomes more spotty. We will learn more on Thursday when NOAA issues its Seasonal Outlook. But it looks like it will evolve into a few months of Southern Tier drought for the first part of 2023.

When we publish on Friday night, it provides a 28-day view of the future. What is important is that this is a longer-term view than one that is typically available in the Media and online. The amount of information about weather provided to the general public is quite limited. It is available to the public. But most do not have the time or level of interest to seek it out. My articles are at an intermediate level between what is generally available from the Media (ten-day forecasts and a good explanation for the first couple of days and the information used by meteorologists to produce these forecasts for general distribution. So I focus on longer timeframes and more depth into why the forecasts are what they are.

09Dec2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Indexes Traded Along The Unchanged Line, Diving Sharply During The Last 30 Minutes To Close At The Session Bottom

December 9, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 305 points or 0.90%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.70%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.73%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.06,
  • USD $104.97 up $0.20,
  • Gold $1808 up $6.10,
  • Bitcoin $17,105 down 0.50% – Session Low 17,098,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.575% up 0.83%
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -4 to 780 Canada + 7 to 202

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for December 2022

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Producer Price Index for final demand moderated to 7.4% for the 12 months ended in November. One would expect the Consumer Price Index to come in next week around the same level.

October 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers, except manufacturers’ sales branches and offices, after adjustment for seasonal variations and trading day differences but not for price changes, were up 11.9% from the revised October 2021 level. Total inventories were up 21.9% from the revised October 2021 level. The October inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.32. The October 2021 ratio was 1.21. Sales to inventory ratio is the proper way to look at wholesale trade as it does not need to be adjusted for inflation. A rising ration normally signals a slowing economy.

CoreLogic today released the Homeowner Equity Report (HER) for the third quarter of 2022. The report shows that U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 63% of all properties) saw equity increase by 15.8% year over year, representing a collective gain of $2.2 trillion, for an average of $34,300 per borrower, since the third quarter of 2021. Annual home equity gains began to slow in the third quarter of 2022, with the average borrower netting $34,300, compared with the nearly $60,000 year-over-year gain recorded in the second quarter.

The University of Michigan Preliminary consumer sentiment for December 2022 rose 4% above November, recovering most of the losses from November but remaining low from a historical perspective. All components of the index lifted, with one-year business conditions surging 14% and long-term business conditions increasing a more modest 6%.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Battery Metal Prices Slide Sideways
  • JPMorgan’s Kolanovic: Sell Oil Stocks Now
  • U.S. Oil And Gas Rig Count Falls Slightly
  • Stellantis to indefinitely idle Jeep plant, lay off workers to cut costs for EVs
  • Marijuana industry sales slow down after pandemic surge
  • Covid and flu hospitalizations increase as holidays approach, while RSV retreats in some states
  • “There Is No Soft Landing” – RH CEO Warns Housing Market “Looks More Like A Crash-Landing”
  • The Jobs “Boom” Isn’t So Hot When We Remember Nearly Six Million Men Are Missing From The Workforce
  • Store Credit Cards Hit 30% Interest Rates As Consumer Balances Rise
  • Foreclosure activity rose 64% from a year ago in November and was highest in these U.S. cities

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.