NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Outlook on January 12, 2023

January 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. The best guess remains March.

But I have actually seen only a few signs of it starting to happen. But all the meteorologists agree that it will.  Could they all be wrong? Probably not.

Will this La Nina transition quickly to the El Nino phase? That would be unusual but some of the models suggest this will happen.  It seems likely that the ENSO Neutral Phase will at the very least have an El Nino Bias.

13Jan2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Markets Finish Week Closing Fractionally Higher, Shy Of Session Highs

January 13, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 113 points or 0.33%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.71%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.40%,
  • Gold $1924 up $25.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $1.59,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.498% up 0.051 points,
  • USD $102.19 down $0.06,
  • Bitcoin $19,385 up $615 – Session Low 18,751
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +3 to 775 Canada +38 to 227

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for January 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Unexpectedly, import prices rose 3.5% year-over-year in December 2022 – up from last month’s 2.7%. Fuel imports drove most of this increase. Export prices declined from 6.1% year-over-year in November 2022 to 5.0% in December.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Powerful Explosion Rocks Natural Gas Pipeline Connecting Lithuania And Latvia
  • U.S. Oil, Gas Rig Count Sees Small Gains As Crude Inches Higher
  • Russia Forced To Use More Of Its Own Oil Tankers To Dodge Sanctions
  • Tesla Drops After Cutting Model Y Prices In the U.S. By 20%
  • The Mega Millions jackpot is $1.35 billion. Here are 3 tips for navigating a win’s ‘cycles of surprise,’ says advisor
  • School lunch, eggs, and airfare: Why inflation soared for 10 items in 2022
  • Nike CEO touts strength in Gen Z China shoppers as Covid disruptions dent regional sales
  • Americans Finding It Difficult To Pay Credit Card Dues On Time; Delinquency Rises Amid All-Time-High Interest Rates
  • Futures Movers: Oil futures score a weekly gain of more than 8% as China’s economic reopening boosts demand prospects

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, 10 Days for the U.S. with some maps for the World posted January 13, 2023

January 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:35 p.m. January 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 14 2023 - 00Z Mon Jan 16 2023

...Rounds of heavy rain and snow continue in the West through the
weekend...

...Unseasonably warm temperatures in the central U.S. through the
weekend...

12Jan2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Higher After Wild Trading Swings Throughout Session

January 12, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 217 points or 0.64%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.64%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.34%,
  • Gold $1901 up $22.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.79,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.427% down 0.129 points,
  • USD $102.24 down $0.96,
  • Bitcoin $19,005 up $8.40 – Session Low 17,527

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for January 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 6.5% year-over-year in December 2022 – down from 7.1% in November. Core inflation (CPI less food and energy) was 5.7% year-over-year – down from 6.0% in November. The main reason for the moderation was gas and fuel oil – however, there was significant inflationary pressure from shelter. This does show that the monetary tightening by the Federal Reserve is continuing to show that it is working to moderate inflation – but consider if the current rate of decline continues, it will take almost one year to get inflation within the target 2% range.

In the week ending January 7, unemployment insurance weekly claims 4-week moving average was 212,500, a decrease of 1,750 from the previous week’s revised average. Weekly claims remain historically low.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Biden’s Economic Advisor Hints At More SPR Releases
  • Disney board exposed itself to activist intervention, but Peltz may be overreaching
  • Nelson Peltz lays out his case for Disney proxy fight, slams Fox acquisition
  • HBO Max raises the price for ad-free service for the first time since it launched
  • Walmart strikes a deal with Salesforce to sell more of its tech to other retailers
  • Tax season opens for individual filers on Jan. 23, says IRS
  • Grocery Stores In NYC May Lock Up Food Due To Rampant Theft
  • Economic Report: Good news for homebuyers: The housing market is showing signs of ‘normalizing’

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, 10 Days for the U.S. with some maps for the World posted January 12, 2023

January 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:25 p.m. EST Thursday, January 12, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EST Thu Jan 12 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jan 13 2023 - 00Z Sun Jan 15 2023

...Atmospheric river expected to impact northern California and the
coastal Pacific Northwest through Friday night...

...Heavy snow possible across northern New England early Friday along with
a period of freezing rain/sleet...

...Heavy mountain snow expected in parts of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades
this weekend...

11Jan2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Three Wall Street’s Major Indexes Continued Trending Higher From Tuesday’s Closing Mark Sending The Dow 270 Points Higher

January 11, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 269 points or 0.80%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.76%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.28%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $2.53,
  • USD $103.23 down $0.01,
  • Gold $1881 up $4.90,
  • Bitcoin $17,542 up $101 – Session Low 17,328,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.537% down 0.082 points

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for January 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Business inflation expectations for the coming year were relatively unchanged at 3.0%. Sales levels compared to “normal times” were also relatively unchanged over the month, though firms’ profit margins compared to normal decreased, according to the Atlanta Fed’s latest Business Inflation Expectations survey.

While many employers planned for an economic downturn to begin 2023, the labor market remains tight and the economy added a solid number of jobs to end the year. Despite this, Retailers added the lowest number of jobs in the fourth quarter since the fourth quarter of 2009.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Venezuela’s Dilapidated Oil Industry Is An Environmental Catastrophe
  • Report: EU Sanctions On Crude, Products Could Cost Russia $300 Million Per Day
  • FAA lifts U.S. ground stop after technology outage delays thousands of flights
  • Bed Bath & Beyond lays off more employees as it struggles to survive
  • Virgin Orbit stock plummets after the failure of its first UK rocket launch
  • Illinois To Pass Law Banning The Sale Of High-Capacity Semi-Automatic Weapons
  • MarketWatch First Take: Other businesses will feel the impact of Bed Bath & Beyond store closures, says bankruptcy expert

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, 10 Days for the U.S. with some maps for the World posted January 11, 2023

January 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:05 pm Wednesday, January 11, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. This article also includes World weather forecasts.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 12 2023 - 00Z Sat Jan 14 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern
California through Friday...

...Heavy snow for New England and rain/freezing rain over parts of the New
England and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast on Thursday...

A Review of the U.S. 2022 Climate January 11, 2023

January 11, 2023Posted inClimateNo Comments

Here is the official Review of the 2022 Annual Climate. Actually, it is a summary of a summary. The full report will be released on January 12. John Batement does a good job of summarizing the summary report. I have provided his full report in the body of this article.

Here are my observations:

  • In terms of temperature, it was in the top third of the 128 years in the database, and in terms of precipitation, it was in the driest third of the 128 years of record. I am not impressed.
  • In terms of impacts, it was the third worst in the 43 years of record. That got my attention. I do not take this part of the report at face value. It needs further analysis.
  • In terms of drought it was the worst year in the 22 Year record of the Drought Monitor – Note we have 128 years of climate data but only 22 years of drought data.

Compared to the rest of the World, the U.S. got off lightly.  Below is John Bateman’s full report.

10Jan2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closed Fractional Higher Near Session Highs After Trading Mostly Sideways Hugging The Unchanged Line

January 10, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 186 points or 0.56%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.01%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.70%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $75 up 0.43,
  • USD $103.28 up $0.28,
  • Gold $1882 up $4.10,
  • Bitcoin $17,472 up $277.80 – Session Low 17,152,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.613% up 0.094 points

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for January 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

November 2022 sales of merchant wholesalers were up 8.7% from the revised November 2021 level. Total inventories of merchant wholesalers were up 20.9% from the revised November 2021 level. The November inventories/sales ratio for merchant wholesalers was 1.35. The November 2021 ratio was 1.21. All this data has not been adjusted for inflation – however, the inventory/sales ratio negates the need for inflation adjustment and is the most important data point. The graph below shows this ratio, and generally, a high or rising ratio (like what is shown on this graph) is indicative of a slowing economy.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index declined 2.1 points in December to 89.8, marking the 12th consecutive month below the 49-year average of 98. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months worsened by eight points from November to a net negative 51%. Inflation remains the single most important business problem with 32% of owners reporting it as their top problem in operating their business.

The federal budget deficit was $418 billion in the first quarter of the fiscal year 2023, the Congressional Budget Office estimates—$41 billion more than the shortfall recorded during the same period last year. Revenues were $26 billion (or 2 percent) lower and outlays were $15 billion (or 1 percent) higher from October through December 2022 than they were in the first quarter of the prior fiscal year.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Barclays Sees $15-$25 Barrel Downside If Manufacturing Activity Slows
  • Biofuel Production Is Set To Soar In The U.S.
  • U.S. Congress To Vote On Ending SPR Oil Sales To China
  • Oil Steady Ahead Of Fed Rate Hike Decision
  • Bed Bath & Beyond reports wider-than-expected loss as possible bankruptcy looms
  • Powell reiterates Fed is not going to become a ‘climate policymaker’
  • House Republicans vote to strip IRS funding, following pledge to repeal nearly $80 billion approved by Congress
  • The Tell: Goldman sees lower rents pulling a key core inflation gauge below 3% this year

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.