Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 12, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 12, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat to continue across portions of the southern Plains...

...Severe storms possible from the Midwest this evening to the Mid
Atlantic and Northeast tomorrow...

...Heavy rains will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast
from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle over the next several days...

11July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Moved Lower As Labor Market Reality-Check Sends Stocks, Bond Yields Tumbling

July 11, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 164 points or 0.52%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.26%,
  • S&P 500 down 1.15%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 104 down 1.05%,
  • USD $108.14 up 1.07%,
  • Gold $1731 flat 0.00%,
  • Bitcoin $20469 down 1.69% – Session Low 20293,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.998% down 0.103%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The June 2022 Survey of Consumer Expectations which showed an increase in short-term inflation expectations but a decline in medium-term and longer-term inflation expectations. Home price growth expectations declined sharply.

Thinking of the June 2022 BLS Employment report which came in red hot last Friday – there was a big bust between the two surveys that comprise the report. The household survey showed a 353,000 DECLINE in jobs whilst the establishment survey showed a 381,000 GAIN in jobs. This is not the first month this year this “bust” has occurred. It could be that an underlying dynamic change is invalidating the accuracy of the data gathering methodology of one or both of the surveys. The graph below shows the net change monthly for the last 5 months in the household and the establishment surveys.

The federal budget deficit was $514 billion in the first nine months of the fiscal year 2022.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Soaring Prices Have Led To An Uptick In Oil Theft In Colombia

  • French Industry Switches To Oil From Gas Amid Uncertainty Over Russian Supply
  • Homebuyers are canceling deals at the highest rate since the start of the pandemic
  • Texas grid operator tells residents to curb power as heat hits record highs
  • Ford’s Mustang Mach-E electric crossover is a hit with industry insiders — that could help it take on Tesla
  • Labor Market Reality-Check Sends Stocks, Bond Yields Tumbling
  • Oil Dumped By Hedge Funds On Soaring Recession Risk
  • Living With Climate Change: ERCOT warning: 5 electricity blackout risks facing the entire U.S., not just Texas
  • Futures Movers: Natural-gas futures gain more than 6% on the shutdown of key European pipeline

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 11, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Oppressive to dangerous heat and humidity continues across the southern
Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley as some relief from the heat
moves into the central High Plains...

...Heat increases across the Desert Southwest and interior valleys of
California...

...Threat of heavy rain moving southward into the Southeast next couple of
days as another heavy rain threat emerges near the central Gulf Coast...

...Severe thunderstorms threat expected to track across the northern tier
states for the next couple of days...

Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 10, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 10, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat and humidity continues across parts of the southern
Plains to the lower Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys through Monday...

...Areas of heavy rainfall over parts of the Mid-Atlantic expected to push
southward into the Southeast on Sunday...

...Severe thunderstorms possible tonight and Sunday over parts of the
northern Rockies to northern Plains, as well as  parts of the Deep South
tonight...



















	




	
	

		08July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Nasdaq Rises For Fifth-Straight Day After Hot jobs Report, Pushed Recession Fears Back In Investor’s Minds, Wall Street Notches Winning Week	





		
			
		
		July 8, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments




	
Summary Of the Markets Today:


    

  • The Dow closed down 46 points or 0.15%,
    • 

  • Nasdaq closed up 0.12%,
    • 

  • S&P 500 down 0.08%,
    • 

  • WTI crude oil settled at 105 up 2.46%,
    • 

  • USD $106.98 down 0.05%,
    • 

  • Gold $1741 flat 0.00%,
    • 

  • Bitcoin $21778 up 0.83% – Session Low 21215,
    • 

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.088% up 0.08%
    • 

  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 752 Canada +9 to 175
    • 



Today’s Economic Releases:


A strong jobs report for June 2022 shows gains of 372,000 in non-farm employment and the unemployment rate remains at 3.6%. This likely paves the way for a 3/4% increase in the federal funds rate at the next FOMC meeting as the Fed is charged with controlling inflation and maximizing jobs growth. The biggest employment gains were in health care (56.7K) and restaurants/bars (40.8k).




Wholesale trade for May 2022 were up 20.9% year-over-year whilst inventories were up 24.7%. This is considered a strong report.




In May 2022, consumer credit increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.9% according to the Federal Reserve. We have been hearing a lot that the consumer, due to inflation, is turning to their credit cards. However, the Fed’s headlines are not inflation adjusted (nor do they have perspective) – please see chart below where it ratios credit outstanding to consumer spending. In this chart, note that when adjusting for inflation and spending – consumer credit is about average for the 21st century.






A summary of headlines we are reading today:


    

  • Oil Prices Bounce Back From Shocking Collapse
    • 

  • Rig Count Climbs As Oil Prices Bounce Back
    • 

  • Biden says Supreme Court is ‘out of control,’ orders HHS to protect abortion access
    • 

  • Walmart won’t hold rival event to Amazon Prime Day, as it is already offering big markdowns
    • 

  • Commodities Crushed & Bonds Battered As Stocks & The Dollar Soar
    • 

  • Bond Report: Treasury yields reach highest levels in more than a week after robust U.S. jobs data
    • 



These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.





















	




	
	

		Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 8, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks	





		
			
		
		July 8, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)


Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:


...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the central and
southern Plains to the Southeast...

...Unsettled weather including severe storms and heavy rain to continue
along a slow-moving boundary extending from the central Plains to the
Southeast...

...Severe storms possible into the weekend across Montana...




















	




	
	

		07July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: S&P 500 Extends Gains For A Fourth-Straight Positive Day, Saga Of Dead Cat Bouncing Continues As Wall Street Investors Prepare For Friday’s Job Report	





		
			
		
		July 7, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments




	
Summary Of the Markets Today:


    

  • The Dow closed up 345 points or 1.12%,
    • 

  • Nasdaq closed up 2.28%,
    • 

  • S&P 500 closed up 1.49%,
    • 

  • WTI crude oil settled at 103 up 4.63%,
    • 

  • USD $107.03 up 0.51%,
    • 

  • Gold $1741 flat 0.00%,
    • 

  • Bitcoin $21723 up 7.26% – Session Low 20271,
    • 

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.006% up 0.095%
    • 



Today’s Economic Releases:


NFIB’s monthly jobs report says 1/2 of small businesses have job openings they cannot fill. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:


The labor force participation rate has been slowly rising this year, with more people taking jobs. However, the labor shortage continues to be a difficult problem for small businesses.  A few more good months of increased employment might get total employment back to pre-pandemic levels.


The ADP private payroll employment report scheduled for release today has been discontinued until 31 August 2022. According to their press release:


ADP Research Institute (ADPRI) and the Stanford Digital Economy Lab (the “Lab”) announced they will retool the ADP National Employment Report (NER) methodology to provide a more robust, high-frequency view of the labor market and trajectory of economic growth. In preparation for the changeover to the new report and methodology, ADPRI will pause issuing the current report and has targeted August 31, 2022 to reintroduce the new ADP National Employment Report.


According to US Census, the trade deficit slightly moderated. Both exports and imports grew but exports grew more causing the moderation. Still the trade deficit remains near record levels. Normally, an increase in imports signals economic expansion except that inflation clearly is the reason for growth of imports and exports.




The four-week moving average of weekly unemployment insurance claims insignificantly grew for the week ending 02 July 2022.




U.S.-based employers announced 32,517 cuts in June 2022 – a sizeable increase from the previous month and the same month last year. According to Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.:


Employers are beginning to respond to financial pressures and slowing demand by cutting costs. While the labor market is still tight, that tightness may begin to ease in the next few month. Many of the sectors increasing layoffs this year are currently dealing with the housing market downturn, as demand for mortgages dries up and financing becomes more difficult and expensive to obtain.






A summary of headlines we are reading today:


    

  • Canada Posts Biggest Trade Surplus Since 2008 As Oil Prices Soar
    • 

  • Donald Trump left the board of his social media company weeks before federal subpoenas, filing shows
    • 

  • American Airlines pilots get triple pay for trips dropped in a scheduling glitch
    • 

  • Virgin Galactic announces deal with Boeing subsidiary to build additional aircraft ‘motherships’
    • 

  • “You Know What Would Be Really Irritating? A Crazy Rally To New Highs”
    • 

  • DB: When We Get Confirmation Of A Proper Recession, Watch Out Below
    • 

  • Commodities Corner: Why crude released from U.S. oil reserves may have ended up being exported overseas
    • 



These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.





















	




	
	

		Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 7, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks	





		
			
		
		July 7, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)


Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:


...Widespread showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe
weather possible through Friday from the High Plains to the East Coast...

...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the
Central/Southern Plains to the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast...




















	




	
	

		06July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stocks Rise After FOMC Minutes Released With The Fed Reaffirming Commitment To Bringing Down Inflation, Wall Street Nosedives During Last 30 Minutes Of Session	





		
			
		
		July 6, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments




	
Summary Of the Markets Today:


    

  • The Dow closed up 70 points or 0.23%,
    • 

  • Nasdaq closed up 0.35%,
    • 

  • S&P 500 closed up 0.36%,
    • 

  • WTI crude oil settled at 99 down 0.93%,
    • 

  • USD $107.03 up 0.51%,
    • 

  • Gold $1741 up 0.03%,
    • 

  • Bitcoin $20301 down 0.58% – Session Low 19784,
    • 

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.926% up 0.115%
    • 



Today’s Economic Releases:


The JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER  report shows job openings decreased 6.9 percent in May 2022. Econmatters uses the change in job openings to forecast the direction of the economy – and this report is showing the economy is slowing.




The Federal Reserve released its minutes for the FOMC meeting on June 14/15, 2022. The bottom line is that a rate increase of three-quarters of a percent is on the table for the next meeting – and this should not be good news for the markets (although markets rose today). Note that the rest of the minutes discussed an economy that was improving but it looks now that the economy was slowing.


In discussing potential policy actions at upcoming meetings, participants continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate to achieve the Committee’s objectives. In particular, participants judged that an increase of 50 or 75 basis points would likely be appropriate at the next meeting. Participants concurred that the economic outlook warranted moving to a restrictive stance of policy, and they recognized the possibility that an even more restrictive stance could be appropriate if elevated inflation pressures were to persist.


The ISM Services survey declined marginally in June 2022 from 55.9 to 55.3 – any value above 50 represents economic expansion. This indicates that the services portion of the economy has been stable – and services represent 2/3rds of the economy.


A potential recession flag is when the 2-year Treasury has a higher yield than the 10-year – and this inversion has been going on for the last two days. At the very least it can be interpreted that the market sees short-term high inflation.




A summary of headlines we are reading today:


    

  • Global Supply For Battery Metals Is Running Tight As Demand Surges
    • 

  • China Continues To Buy Record Levels Of Russian Crude
    • 

  • Coinbase: Oil And Tech Stocks Are As Risky As Crypto
    • 

  • Mortgage demand sinks even as rates drop
    • 

  • Bonds, Bullion, & Black Gold Drop, Dollar Pops As Fed Confirms Hawkish Stance
    • 

  • Recession Is Priced In; Stagflation Is Not
    • 

  • Schumer provides ‘rock-solid evidence’ that Democrats will push forward with partisan tax and spending bill, analyst says
    • 

  • The New York Post: 4 in 10 Americans say they’re ‘struggling’ financially amid high inflation and rising gas prices
    • 



These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.





















	




	
	

		Daily Report for this evening and the next 48 hours from July 6, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks	





		
			
		
		July 6, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
This is still an experimental article (we are working to be sure all the images update)


Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next two days from this afternoon’s  NWS Forecast:


...Showers and thunderstorms with excessive rainfall and severe weather
possible through midweek from the Northern Rockies and High Plains to the
Mid Atlantic and Southeast...

...Dangerous heat and humidity to continue from parts of the central and
southern Plains to the Mid Atlantic and Southeast...