August 23, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threats expected across areas of east
Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next two days...

...Above average temperatures to continue from the inland valleys of
California into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, while below average
temperatures expected across the South from the Southern Plains into the
Southeast...

22 August 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Main Indexes Opened Down Indicating A Stunted Summer Rally, Remaining In The Red Through Out The Session

August 22, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 641 points or 1.90%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.55%,
  • S&P 500 down 2.13%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 91 down 0.11%,
  • USD $108.94 up 0.77%,
  • Gold $1748 down 0.82%,
  • Bitcoin $21,032 down 2.17% – Session Low 20,938,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.029 up 0.73

Today’s Economic Releases:

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.27 in July 2022 from –0.25 in June. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, and all four categories improved from June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at –0.09 in July. Economic forecasting uses the three month average – and this would mean that the economy is expanding slightly below its historical trend (average) rate of growth. The CFNAI is the best coincident indicator of the economy – and it makes sense that this indicator views the economy as slightly soft.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2022 SCE Labor Market Survey, which shows a decline in transitions to a different employer, compared to a year ago. Satisfaction with wage compensation at respondents’ current jobs deteriorated, while satisfaction with nonwage benefits and promotion opportunities improved. Regarding expectations, the average expected likelihood of receiving an offer in the next four months declined. The average expected wage offer (conditional on receiving one), as well as the average reservation wage — the lowest wage at which respondents would be willing to accept a new job — increased year-over-year. Expectations regarding job transitions improved.

August 22-29 Elliott Wave International invites you to join their Trader Education Week — a free chance to learn a ton, and very quickly — from just 5 video lessons. They do not want your credit card info. The Week is brought to you by their Trader’s Classroom, a video mentoring service for traders seeking to improve. Your 5 lessons come straight from the editor Jeffrey Kennedy, one of the world’s top technical analysts.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Europe Splurges on Russian Oil As EU Ban Nears
  • Chinese Banks Slash Key Interest Rate In Bid To Bolster Stalling Economy
  • Ford to eliminate 3,000 jobs in an effort to cut costs
  • Single-stock ETFs are ‘way too risky for 99% of investors,’ an advisor says. What to know before adding one to your portfolio
  • Nomura Warns “Fed’s Hands Are Tied” For Now As USDollar “Wrecking Ball” Tightens Global Financial Conditions
  • Futures Movers: Natural-gas prices surge to their highest level since 2008; oil slips

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

August 22, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 22, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy rainfall event unfolding across the southern Plains to the lower
Mississippi Valley over the next few days...

...Rounds of strong thunderstorms expected to continue moving across the
Ohio Valley and the Appalachians this evening...

...Heat in the Northwest will spread east into the northern Plains as
unsettled weather moves into the East Coast...

August 21, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus a Review of State Temperature and Precipitation Rankings

August 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6 pm EDT August 23, 2022. It was not possible to update the Week 3-4 Outlooks as they only update on Fridays

Southern Tier to be very wet for the next two weeks.

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts. Since we are often publishing this article on Sunday, we then only have a 26-day view of the future. Sorry about that. It is really a 27-day view but Sunday readers are seeing it one day late. But 26 days is still a pretty long forecast. The update I just made did not update the week – 4 Outlook but it updated all the Outlooks for the next 14 days. There will be a new article soon with the updated Week 3 – 4 Outlook, but I might update it in this article also. The links are provided for all the graphics so the reader can get the updated version but this article is now up to date except for the Week3 – 4 Outlook which can not be updated until Friday.

We have also taken a look at the state temperature and precipitation rankings for Sept to November LAST YEAR and Year to Date (YTD) This year. Some may view that as apples and oranges but it will give us something to compare against as the next three months evolve. So we can come back in early December to see how the two years compare.  My guess is that it will be pretty similar but it may be interesting to some people.

August 21, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy Rainfall event to unfold across the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley over the next several days...

...Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is forecast to reach southern Texas as
a Tropical Depression on Sunday...

...Above average temperatures in the Northwest and Northeast...

...Scattered to severe thunderstorms possible across the Midwest/Ohio
Valley through Sunday...

Reconciling Keynes and Hayek Through Concordian Economics

August 21, 2022Posted ineconomics3 Comments

Both Keynes’ and Hayek’s shared the belief that there existed a need to revisit the economic discourse that began in the thirties and involved their respective analyses of growth and the business cycle. This paper looks at these topics and discovers some of the deep methodological, cultural, substantive, and ideological roots of the chasm that existed between Keynes and Hayek. The reasons for the chasm are understood with the aid of Concordian economics, a framework of analysis through which prism both Keynesian and Austrian economists might finally have a serious conversation with one another.

NOAA Issues Four-Season Outlook on August 18, 2022

August 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Preparing to Say Goodbye to La Nina Early in 2023

Today is the third Thursday of the month so right on schedule NOAA has issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also includes the Early Outlook for the single month of September plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

“The La Niña signature is likely to fade during FMA and MAM 2023, given that La Niña and ENSO-neutral are about even odds”

You can take La Nina out of the forecast, but the warming trend continues. But the Outlook is for a wetter CONUS starting in AMJ 2023. For many parts of CONUS, 2023 will be wetter than 2022. At least that is what NOAA is predicting right now.

August 20, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 20, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Significant heavy rainfall event may lead to major flash flood impacts
in the Southwest...

...More heat expected across interior California and the Pacific
Northwest...

...Thunderstorms could become severe over the Midwest today and
thunderstorms and possible flooding rains will spread across the
South/Southeast and then up the Mid-Atlantic by the weekend...




















	




	
	

		19 August 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Three Main Indexes Gapped Down At The Opening And Traded Sideways For Today’s Session, GM To Reinstate Quarterly Dividend, 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest In Month	





		
			
		
		August 19, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments




	
Summary Of the Markets Today:


    

  • The Dow closed down 292 points or 0.86%,
    • 

  • Nasdaq closed down 2.01%,
    • 

  • S&P 500 down 1.29%,
    • 

  • WTI crude oil settled at 90 down 4.08% for the week%,
    • 

  • USD $108.12 up 0.58%,
    • 

  • Gold $1760 down 0.62%,
    • 

  • Bitcoin $21,374 down 8.58% – Session Low 21,246,
    • 

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.978 up 0.0987
    • 

  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 762 Canada unchanged at 201
    • 



Today’s Economic Releases:


The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach remain the best real-time indicator of imports and exports from the U.S. On a rolling 12-month basis, inbound traffic increased 0.5% in July compared to the rolling 12 months ending in June.   Outbound traffic increased 0.1% compared to the rolling 12 months ending the previous month. The bottom line here is that the economy seems to be treading water at this time with no significant movement upward or downward.






A summary of headlines we are reading today:


    

  • Berkshire Cleared To Purchase Up To 50% Common OXY Stock
    • 

  • Demand Fears Fail To Keep Oil Prices Under $90
    • 

  • GM to reinstate quarterly dividend and increase share buyback program to $5 billion
    • 

  • What this week’s retail earnings tell us about consumers and our stocks that depend on them
    • 

  • Cineworld shares plummet more than 60% on bankruptcy reports
    • 

  • Stocks making the biggest moves midday: Bed Bath & Beyond, Cineworld, Foot Locker, Wayfair and more
    • 

  • The Squeeze Is Over: Goldman Prime Sees A Flood Of New Hedge Fund Shorts
    • 

  • A growing share of under-30s pay unaffordable rent
    • 

  • Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield hits highest in a month as Fed’s Barkin says officials will do what it takes to fight inflation
    • 



These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.





















	




	
	

		August 19, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical	





		
			
		
		August 19, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...Significant heavy rainfall event may lead to major flash flood impacts
in the Southwest...

...Hot weather persists for California and the Pacific Northwest with
numerous heat-related advisories in place...

...Shower and thunderstorm chances continue for the Southeast to Southern
Plains and from the Northern Plains into the Midwest into the weekend...