Friday looking ahead 28 days July 15, 2022

July 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a special report on Fridays. When we issue the Seasonal Outlook on the third Thursday, we may sometimes issue the Friday report as an update to the Seasonal Outlook.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the predictions do not always work out as predicted but in the article, there are links to obtain updated predictions.

It is not surprising that the forecast is relatively static and not showing much change over the 28-day period. And the dominant characteristic is hot.

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 16, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 16, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Dangerous heat to continue across much of the Central and Western
United States...

...Heavy rain and possible flash flooding for portions of the
Intermountain West, Rockies, and Gulf Coast region through tonight, with
severe weather possible across the northern High Plains...

...Instances of flash flooding possible throughout the Ohio Valley on
Sunday...

15July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Swings 1200 Points In 2 Session Closing Solidly In The Green At Session High. Real Retail Sales Remain In Contraction.

July 15, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 658 points or 2.15%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.79%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.92%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 98 up 1.06%,
  • USD $108.03 down 0.56%,
  • Gold $1705 down 0.03%,
  • Bitcoin $21,075 up 2.07% – Session Low 20,385,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.926% down 0.033%
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +4 to 756 Canada +16 to 191

NOAA Updates its ENSO Analysis on July 14, 2022 – Increasing Chances of a Three-peat

July 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. Although the current status remains the same i.e.  La Nina Advisory, the forecast has been adjusted somewhat from last month. The forecast calls for the La Nina to continue but weaken during the Summer. Then it’s forecast to strengthen again in the Fall and Winter. The timing is shown in the NOAA discussion and the IRI probability analysis.

Of importance, the chances of a Triple Dip La Nina are still difficult to predict but seem to be higher than the estimate last month. I am not exactly sure how you define a Three-Peat. If it has to do with extending into early Winter the odds seem to be a bit higher. This is not likely to change the forecast for Winter but might change the forecast for next Spring. Finally, there is now less disagreement among meteorological agencies as to when this La Nina will end.

So I am referring to it as a Three-peat but it is not over until it is over. So it may not happen but it looks increasing as if it will.

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 15, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 15, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

..Heat to continue across much of the Central and Western States...

..A Fire Weather Threat across portions of the Great Basin and Central
Plains...

..Heavy Rains and isolated Flash Flooding possible along the Central Gulf
Coast into the Southeast, across the Upper Mississippi Valley and from the
Southwest into the Great Basin and Southern Rockies...

14July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow Opened Nearly 600 Points Down Almost Recovering Losses For The Session, Nasdaq Was Barely In The Green, While The S&P 500 Remained In The Red. Initial Jobless Claims Continues To Grow.

July 14, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 143 points or 0.46%,
  • Nasdaq closed flat +0.03%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.30%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 96 flat 0.00%,
  • USD $108.58 up 0.51%,
  • Gold $1710 down 0.05%,
  • Bitcoin $20,656 down 5.04% – Session Low 20,634,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.947% up 0.041%

Today’s Economic Releases:

Unemployment insurance weekly claims 4 week moving average continues to moderately grow.

The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 11.3 percent for the 12 months ended in June, the largest increase since a record 11.6-percent jump in March 2022.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Are Energy Markets Responsible For Currency Craziness?
  • People are paying more for clothes even as retailers like Walmart and Gap mark down prices to cut inventory
  • Molson Coors to return to the Super Bowl for the first time in more than 30 years
  • Dimon rips Fed stress test as ‘terrible way to run’ financial system after his bank halts buybacks
  • Banks Dump, Bitcoin Pumps, Bullion Slumps As Inflation-Recession Battle Builds
  • Doug Casey On The Ridiculous Policies For Addressing Inflation And Rising Prices

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Daily Report for the next 48 hours or a bit more from July 14, 2022 plus access to Tropical Outlooks and Intermediate-term Outlooks

July 14, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Continuing chances for heavy rain and scattered flash flooding forecast
across the central Gulf Coast and Southeast...

...Isolated instances of flash flooding possible over the Southwest and
parts of the central/southern Rockies associated with monsoon activity...

...Severe thunderstorms capable of containing damaging wind gusts are
possible across parts of the northern High Plains and Mid-South through
tonight...

...Dangerous heat and humidity persists across much of the central United
States and Great Basin through the end of the week... 

13July2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Turned Down After CPI Inflation Hits 9.1% YoY.

July 13, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 209 points or 0.67%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.15%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.45%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $96 down 7.61%,
  • USD $107.96 down 0.18%,
  • Gold $1733 up 0.06%,
  • Bitcoin $19,626 down 3.29% – Session Low 19,058,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.91% down 0.048%

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in June 2022 rose significantly and was the largest monthly rise since September 2005.

Overall, consumer prices grew at 9.1% over the last 12 months – the highest level since 1981.

You can blame much of the rise of the CPI on energy. You can assume the following:

  1. The June Employment picture saw significant growth. Since the Federal Reserve is charged with maintaining jobs growth and controlling inflation – they are free to raise the federal funds rate by 75 basis points at their next meeting later this month;
  2. There has been a moderation in energy prices recently. It is likely that this 9.1% inflation rate will be the largest this year (all things being equal).
  3. Real average hourly earnings for all employees decreased by 1.0% in June – inflation was responsible for this decrease.

The Federal Reserve released its Beige Book for July 2022, and states in part:

Economic activity expanded at a modest pace, on balance, since mid-May; however, several Districts reported growing signs of a slowdown in demand, and contacts in five Districts noted concerns over an increased risk of a recession. Most Districts reported that consumer spending moderated as higher food and gas prices diminished households’ discretionary income.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Biden: Inflation Data Does Not Reflect Impact Of Gasoline Price Decline
  • ESG Funds Reel As Investors Pile Into Energy And Defense Stocks
  • Peloton competitor Tonal cuts 35% of the workforce as it prepares for possible recession, IPO
  • PepsiCo raises revenue forecast as it deploys price hikes, smaller sizes to fight rising costs
  • California Governor Signs Bill Allowing Victims to Sue Gun-Makers
  • ‘Scary times’: Builders are slashing home prices and slowing construction as buyers pull back, survey shows

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Daily Report for the next 48 hours from July 13, 2022 plus access to intermediate term Outlooks and Tropical Outlooks

July 13, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this morning and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Central
Gulf Coast to The Southern Appalachians on Wednesday and expanding to the
southern Mid-Atlantic Coast on Thursday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northern Rockies/High Plains through Thursday morning...

...Dangerous heat and humidity across parts of the South Plains to the
Lower Mississippi Valley will continue as well as parts of the Northern
High Plains and Great Basin... 

12Jul2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Continue To Decline As Signs Of A Slowing Economy Continue

July 12, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 192 points or 0.62%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.95%,
  • S&P 500 down 0.92%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $95.80 down 8.0%,
  • USD $108.17 up 0.15%,
  • Gold $1723 down 0.46%,
  • Bitcoin $19,463 down 2.4%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.967% flat 0.0%

Today’s Economic Releases:

CoreLogic’s Loan Performance Insights Report for April 2022 shows 2.9% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 1.8 percentage point decrease compared to 4.7% in April 2021.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped 3.6 points in June to 89.5, marking the sixth consecutive month below the 48-year average of 98. Small business owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months decreased seven points to a net negative 61%, the lowest level recorded in the 48-year survey. Expectations for better conditions have worsened every month this year.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in June and now stands at its lowest level since February 2021.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • BlackRock Is Bracing For Persistent Inflation
  • Copper Prices Plummet To Lowest Levels Since 2020
  • Hedge Funds Are Unloading Oil Futures In A Hurry
  • OPEC Remains 1 Million Bpd Below Target
  • Long Beach Container Backlog Crosses Red Line As Delays Mount
  • Stocks Sink, Yield Curve Inverts, Crude Crashes As Global Stagflation Accelerates

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.