August 27, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days

August 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Southern Tier to be very wet and the Northwest warm. But there is a high level of uncertainty relative to the week 3 – 4 Outlook.

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays which for most people will be read on Saturday as it gets published late Friday night.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts.

August 27, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 27, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast through Saturday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast through Saturday morning...

...Increasing fire weather risk over parts of the Great Basin, Northern
Intermountain Region, and Northern Rockies...

26 August 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Waterfalls At Opening Bell After Powell Warns Of Pain Ahead And Continued Losses During Final Hours Of Session, Dow Slides 1000 points As Losses Mount, Main Indexes Close At Session Lows

August 26, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 1,008 points or 3.03%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 3.94%,
  • S&P 500 down 3.37%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $93 up 2.73% for the week,
  • USD $108.81 up 0.36%,
  • Gold $1750 down 1.2%,
  • Bitcoin $20,670 down 4.37% – Session Low 20,581,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.039 Unchanged
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +3 to 765 Canada unchanged at 201

Today’s Economic Releases:

Real (inflation-adjusted) disposable personal income increased 0.3% in July 2022 and real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.2%. We are not a fan of looking at month-over-month changes are the volatility is misleading. The year-over-year inflation-adjusted data shows personal consumption expenditures increased 2.2% (and this increase has been relatively steady for the last 5 months) whilst disposable personal income declined 3.7% (and has been in negative territory all of 2022).

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Russia Is Flaring Natural Gas While Choking Supply To Europe
  • Oil Rig Count Climbs As Permian Drilling Picks Up
  • Bed Bath & Beyond says it will share its comeback strategy next week
  • Zelensky Warns Of “Radiation Disaster” As Reconnected Nuclear Reactor Is Building Up Capacity
  • Bond Report: Two- and 10-year U.S. bond yields rise for a fourth straight week after Powell’s hawkish Jackson Hole address
  • Market Snapshot: Dow tumbles 950 points, Nasdaq drops 3.8% after Powell warns of pain to households in inflation battle

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

August 26, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 26, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

..There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Central Gulf Coast/Western Gulf Coast and the Northern
Rockies/Northern High Plains through Friday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Northeast from Friday into Saturday morning...

...Low temperatures will be near or tie high minimum overnight
temperatures over parts of the Northwest...

25 August 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened higher, Continued To Climb Closing At Session Highs. Markets Hope Jackson Hole Rate Hike Discussion By Powell Will Turn Dovish.

August 25, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 323 points or 0.98%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.67%,
  • S&P 500 up 1.41%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 93 up 6.80% for the week,
  • USD $108.34 down 0.34%,
  • Gold $1769 up 0.39%,
  • Bitcoin $21,639 down 0.61% – Session Low 21,352,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.039% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

In the week ending August 20, the 4-week moving average for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 247,000, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,250 from 246,750 to 245,500. It appears, based on the unemployment insurance claims, that the economy has stabilized – and has stopped slowing.
The second estimate of real GDP for 2Q2022 “improved” from the advance estimate’s -0.9% to -0.6%. The inflation index remained at 7.1%. This continues to show a two-quarter contraction of the economy (see chart below) which historically has resulted in a recession call.

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing index slowed considerably in August 2022 but remained slightly positive. The month-over-month composite index was 3 in August, down from 13 in July and 12 in June. The slower pace in factory growth was driven by a decrease in activity in wood products, machinery, computer products, and transportation equipment manufacturing.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • The Inflation Reduction Act Falls Short On Emissions Regulation
  • UBS Sees $125 Oil In The Coming Months
  • Sky-high rents hit the aircraft market as Boeing jets top $300,000 a month
  • Shares of Dollar Tree fall after company cuts guidance, citing investments in competitive pricing
  • Federal ‘ghost gun’ regulations go into effect after judges reject challenges
  • Why even more Americans are arming up with AR-15 guns
  • Bonds & Stocks Bid Despite Rate-Hawknado Ahead Of J-Hole Pow-Wow
  • Bond Report: 10- and 30-year Treasury yields post sharpest declines in a month ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

August 25, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 25, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley/Western Gulf Coast through Thursday
morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Northern Rockies through Thursday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern
Rockies and Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast
from Thursday into Friday morning...

24 August 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Main Indexes Remained In The Green After A Late Afternoon Pullback, Treasury Yields Climb After Hawkish Remarks by Fed’s Kashkari

August 24, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 60 points or 0.18%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.41%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.29%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $95 up 9.39% for the week,
  • USD $108.65 up 0.13%,
  • Gold $1765 up 0.24%,
  • Bitcoin $21,695 up 0.72% – Session Low 21,172,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.111% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased by less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged. This decrease follows four consecutive monthly increases. This is a 10.8% increase year-over-year but the data was not inflation adjusted. The graph below shows the inflation-adjusted durable goods was down 0.7% year-over-year.
Pending home sales declined for the second consecutive month in July, and for the eighth time in the last nine months. The Pending Home Sales is home sales based on contract signings, slid 1.0% in July. Year-over-year, pending transactions sank 19.9% (see graph below)
Total summer jobs added for teens fell 4% in 2022 from the same period in 2021. Employers added 1,239,000 teen jobs in May, June, and July this year, compared to 1,295,000 jobs added last summer. Andrew Challenger, economic expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:
The fact that fewer jobs were added for this cohort this summer than the previous summer indicates establishments that employ teen workers either had enough staff going into the summer or were planning for a downturn that would stifle demand, opting not to add positions.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Diesel Prices Climb For First Time In Two Months
  • North Sea Gas Production Increases 26%
  • Pending home sales slip 1% in July, but Realtors say the market may be ‘at or close to the bottom’
  • Nordstrom cuts full-year forecast, citing slowing customer demand
  • How Starlink Changes Bitcoin Mining And Improves Decentralization
  • California to unveil rules to ban sales of gas-powered new vehicles by 2035
  • Bond Report: Treasury yields climb to highest since June after hawkish remarks by Fed’s Kashkari

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

August 24, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 24, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to today and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threats over the lower Mississippi Valley
may shift farther east into Alabama...

...Above average temperatures to continue from the inland valleys of
California into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, while below average
temperatures expected across the South from the Southern Plains into the
Southeast...

23 August 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Financial Markets Remain Unsettled As Wednesday’s Possible Fed Rate-Hike Approaches, Indexes Sea-Saw Across The Unchanged Line Closing Down In Last Five Minutes

August 23, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 154 points or 0.47%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.00% (flat),
  • S&P 500 down 0.22%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 94 up 6.60% for the week,
  • USD $108.61 down 0.32%,
  • Gold $1760 up 0.7%,
  • Bitcoin $21,569 up 0.71% – Session Low 20,920,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.05% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Richmond Fed manufacturing firms reported slowdowns in August 2022 with their composite manufacturing index falling from 0 in July to −8 in August. Two of its three component indexes tumbled: the indexes for shipments and volume of new orders slid from 7 and −10 in July to −8 and −20 in August, respectively.

Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2022 were 12.6%  below the revised June rate and is 29.6% below the July 2021 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2022 was $439,400.  The average sales price was $546,800.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Bullish OPEC+ Rhetoric Sends Oil Prices Soaring
  • European Crop Yields Collapse Amid Worst Drought In 500 Years
  • Macy’s cuts full-year forecast despite strong quarter, fearing shoppers will pull back on spending
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods boosts 2022 outlook after second-quarter earnings top estimates
  • Intel Inks $30 Billion Financing Partnership With Brookfield To Fund Manufacturing Expansion
  • Futures Movers: Oil prices rebound; natural gas pulls back from 14-year highs
  • Crypto: What is the Ethereum Merge? Here are 5 things you should know

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

JAMSTEC Issues their Three-Season World Forecast based on August 1 ENSO Conditions.

August 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone early. But I did not get around to doing it until now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. I am going to show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast.

I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that. The U.S. media pays hardly any attention to what other meteorological agencies predict.