August 6, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also

August 6, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Monsoonal rains over the western U.S. expected to shift eastward as
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front could bring heavy rain into the upper
Midwest on Saturday...

...Heat expected to spread across the northern tier while remaining in
place over the Northeast for the next couple of days...

...Cool air spreading into the Pacific Northwest will lower the fire
threat across the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains...



















	




	
	

		05August2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Opened Down 315 points, Recovering To Close UP At 77 Points After Blowout Jobs Report, A Red-Hot July Jobs Number Has Traders Penciling In Another Jumbo Fed Rate Hike	





		
			
		
		August 5, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments




	
Summary Of the Markets Today:


    

  • The Dow closed up 77 points or 0.23%,
    • 

  • Nasdaq closed down 0.50%,
    • 

  • S&P 500 down 0.16%,
    • 

  • WTI crude oil settled at $88 dup 0.65%,
    • 

  • USD $106.55 up 0.75%,
    • 

  • Gold $1774 down 0.87%,
    • 

  • Bitcoin $22,961 up 1.96% – Session Low 22,485,
    • 

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.827% up 0.151%
    • 

  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -3 to 764 Canada -1 to 203
    • 



Today’s Economic Releases:


The NBER considers indicators including nonfarm payrolls, industrial production, and retail sales, among others, in designating the start and end of U.S. recessions. Today’s July 2022 BLS employment report is showing nonfarm payrolls are far from recession territory with a significant gain in employment.


    

  • The household survey showed an increase of 179,000 whilst the establishment survey says 528,000.
    • 

  • The employment/population ratio remains on an improvement trend.
    • 

  • The unemployment rate modestly reduced to 3.5% – but the larger reason for this slight reduction is that the civilian labor force was reduced by 63,000. In all cases, the establishment survey is volatile – and there can be significant changes month-over-month.
    • 

  • A strong jobs report will allow the Fed to raise the federal funds rate another 75 basis points.
    • 





According to the Federal Reserve: “Consumer credit [in June 2022] increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.7 percent during the second quarter. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 14.6 percent, while nonrevolving credit increased at an annual rate of 6.9 percent. In June, consumer credit increased at an annual rate of 10.5 percent.” Looking at year-over-year growth, credit was up 7.7%.




A summary of headlines we are reading today:


    

  • Russian Refinery Returns To Operations After Drone Strike
    • 

  • U.S. Drilling Activity Slows As Prices Ease
    • 

  • AMC plans to issue 517 million shares of preferred stock, under the ticker symbol ‘APE’
    • 

  • Job Gains & Powell’s Pains Demolish Dovish-Dreams, Spark Market Turmoil This Week
    • 

  • Firearm Companies Say Packages Shipped With UPS Being Damaged, Disappearing: Reports
    • 

  • Consumer Credit Surged In June, 2nd Largest Monthly Increase Ever
    • 

  • Bond Report: Treasury yields surge after blockbuster U.S. July jobs data
    • 

  • Market Extra: A red-hot July jobs number has traders penciling in another jumbo Fed rate hike
    • 



These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.



















	




	
	

		August 5, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also	





		
			
		
		August 5, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...Monsoonal rains over the western U.S. expected to shift eastward as
thunderstorms ahead of a cold front could bring heavy rain into the upper
Midwest on Saturday...

...Heat expected to spread across the northern tier while remaining in
place over the Northeast for the next couple of days...

...Cool air spreading into the Pacific Northwest will lower the fire
threat across the northern Rockies to the northern High Plains...






















	




	
	

		04August2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Three Major Indexes See-Sawed Across The Unchanged Line In Choppy Trading To End The Session Mixed, Prices At The Pump Continue To Plunge	





		
			
		
		August 4, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments




	
Summary Of the Markets Today:


    

  • The Dow closed down 86 points or 0.26%,
    • 

  • Nasdaq closed up 0.41%,
    • 

  • S&P 500 down 0.08%,
    • 

  • WTI crude oil settled at $88 down 2.90%,
    • 

  • USD $105.93 down 0.42%,
    • 

  • Gold $1793 down 0.54%,
    • 

  • Bitcoin $22,525 down 3.84% – Session Low 22,469,
    • 

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.663% down 0.085%
    • 



Today’s Economic Releases:


Tomorrow the BLS will issue the employment report for July 2022. Small businesses across the country continue to raise wages to keep employees and fill a historically high level of open positions, according to NFIB’s monthly jobs report. Seasonally adjusted, 49% of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down one point from June and down two points from May’s 48-year record high. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg says:


Hiring has never been harder for small business owners. The labor shortage remains frustrating for many small business owners as they continue to manage inflation and other economic headwinds. Owners are adjusting business operations where they can to help mitigate lost sales opportunities due to staffing shortages.


The U.S. monthly international trade deficit decreased in June 2022. Exports increased whilst imports decreased. In normal times, slowing imports suggests a slowing economy.




The 4-week moving average of initial unemployment insurance weekly claims increased from the previous week’s revised average – and continues to moderately increase.




U.S.-based employers announced 25,810 cuts in July, a 20.6% decrease from the 32,517 cuts announced in June. It is 36.3% higher than the 18,942 cuts announced in the same month last year, according to a report released Thursday from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.




A summary of headlines we are reading today:


    

  • Prices At The Pump Continue To Plunge, But Stronger Demand Could Halt The Trend
    • 

  • Burger King parent says more customers are redeeming coupons and loyalty rewards
    • 

  • Nikola’s revenue tops expectations on the delivery of 48 electric trucks
    • 

  • Restaurant Brands International earnings top estimates, fueled by stronger Tim Hortons, Burger King sales
    • 

  • Walmart lays off corporate employees after slashing forecast
    • 

  • Indian investors hunt for value in US stocks amid rate hikes
    • 

  • From food to fuel: What sparked the transformation in the sugar industry?
    • 



These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.



















	




	
	

		August 4, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also	





		
			
		
		August 4, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...Monsoonal rains across the Southwest is forecast to expand northward by
Friday as heavy rain and possibly severe thunderstorms move across the
Great Lakes/Midwest through tonight...

...Heat is expected to build across the northern Plains and the Northeast
for the next couple of days...

...Fire Weather Threat to continue from the Northwest into the northern
High Plains..




















	




	
	

		03August2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stocks Rally Reversing Two-Day Slide, Oil Prices Fall, Ford Reports Big Jump In July Sales	





		
			
		
		August 3, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments




	
Summary Of the Markets Today:


    

  • The Dow closed up 416 points or 1.29%,
    • 

  • Nasdaq closed up 2.59%,
    • 

  • S&P 500 up 1.56%,
    • 

  • WTI crude oil settled at $91 down 3.40%,
    • 

  • USD $106.39 up 0.04%,
    • 

  • Gold $1782 down 0.402%,
    • 

  • Bitcoin $23,431 up 2.23% – Session Low 22,719,
    • 

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.712% down 0.029%
    • 



Today’s Economic Releases:


The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Services In July 2022 registered 56.7% – higher than the previous month’s 55.3%.


The U.S. Census June 2022 full report on manufacturers’ orders stated “New orders for manufactured goods in June, up thirteen of the last fourteen months, increased $10.8 billion or 2.0 percent“. Unfortunately, this data is not inflation adjusted and the inflation-adjusted data continues to show that manufacturing has been in decline for the last 3 years.




A summary of headlines we are reading today:


    

  • Oil Prices Fall To $90, But Its Not Enough For Biden
    • 

  • Ford reports big jump in July sales, including for trucks and electric vehicles
    • 

  • Starbucks earnings beat Wall Street estimates, fueled by U.S. demand for cold drinks
    • 

  • Explosion In Retail Buying Revealed As Source Of Latest Market Meltup, Tesla Stock Surge
    • 

  • Crypto: Michael Saylor drops Microstrategy CEO role — Here’s what it means for bitcoin
    • 

  • Market Extra: This is where emerging-markets guru Mark Mobius sees ‘opportunities’ — and why U.S. stocks haven’t bottomed
    • 



These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.



















	




	
	

		August 3, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also	





		
			
		
		August 3, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...Monsoonal Rains to continue across much of the Southwest U.S. as heavy
rain and possibly severe thunderstorms move across the Great Lakes/Midwest
during the next couple of days...

...Some relief from the prolonged heatwave across the Northwest but record
high temperatures are possible on Thursday over the northern High Plains
and parts of the Northeast...

...Fire Weather Threat to continue from the Northwest into the northern
High Plains..




















	




	
	

		02August2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Another Session Of Financial Uncertainty Results In A Down Session	





		
			
		
		August 2, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments




	
Summary Of the Markets Today:


    

  • The Dow closed down 402 points or 1.23%,
    • 

  • Nasdaq closed down 0.16%,
    • 

  • S&P 500 down 0.67%,
    • 

  • WTI crude oil settled at $94 up 0.362%,
    • 

  • USD $106.20 up 0.10%,
    • 

  • Gold $1761 up 0.07%,
    • 

  • Bitcoin $23,001 up 0.10% – Session Low 22,697,
    • 

  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 2.761 up 1.56%
    • 



Today’s Economic Releases:


The CoreLogic Home prices (HPI) increased year-over-year by 18.3% in June 2022 and on a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.6%.  The CoreLogic forecast indicates that home prices will increase on a year-over-year basis by 4.3% from June 2022 to June 2023.




The number of job openings decreased to 10.7 million on the last business day of June 2022. Hires and total separations were little changed at 6.4 million and 5.9 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (4.2 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.3 million) were little changed.




The New York Fed’s Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the second quarter of 2022, increasing by $312 billion (2%) to $16.15 trillion.


The signs from the releases today are of a slowing economy. Remember the 2007 recession was offically recognized one year after it began. If the economy continues to slow, the beginning recession marker would be in 1Q2022.


A summary of headlines we are reading today:


    

  • Gas Shortage Sparks Energy Security Fears In Asia
    • 

  • Venezuela’s Oil Exports Drop By More than A Third In July
    • 

  • Mall owners say retailers are still opening stores in spite of recession fears
    • 

  • Molson Coors stock falls as company cites split in consumer spending on beer
    • 

  • Ford stock notches its best month since the Great Recession — and keeps rising
    • 

  • LA County Removes Citizenship Requirements For Government Jobs
    • 

  • Crypto: Bitcoin has already bottomed, has a fair value of $40,000, says Anthony Scaramucci
    • 



These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.



















	




	
	

		NOAA Updates their August 2022 Outlook on July 31, 2022	





		
			
		
		August 2, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Short-term improvement in drought for August.


At the end of every month, NOAA updates their Outlook for the following month which in this case is August. They also issue a Drought Outlook for the following month. We are reporting on that tonight.


There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for August and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion.


Of significant interest is the Drought Outlook for August. It is a big improvement but unfortunately, it probably is a one-month event. We have also included four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date precipitation in the West. We also included a Monsoon related Podcast that is very interesting.



















	




	
	

		August 2, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical also	





		
			
		
		August 2, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments




	
Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.


...Heavy Rains and Flash Flooding possible across the Central
Appalachians...

...Monsoonal Rains to continue across much of the Southwest U.S., posing a
Flash Flood risk...

...Some Relief from Record High Temperatures across the Northwest...

...Fire Weather Threat to continue from the Northwest into the Northern
High Plains..