EconCurrents

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 139 points or 0.45%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.90%,
• S&P 500 down 0.72%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $85 up 0.27%,
• USD $109.74 little changed,
• Gold $1683 up 0.38%,
• Bitcoin $19.649 down 0.18% – Session Low 19,370,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.453% Unchanged,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +4 to 763 Canada +6 to 211

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 0.5% on September 15, down from 1.3% on September 9. After this week’s releases from the US Department of the Treasury’s Bureau of the Fiscal Service, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, the US Census Bureau, and the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, decreases in the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and third-quarter real gross private domestic investment growth from 1.7% and -6.1%, respectively, to 0.4% and -6.4%, respectively, was slightly offset by an increase in the nowcast of third-quarter real government spending growth from 1.3% to 2.0%. What this decline in GDPNow says that the economy was only modestly (and not significantly) improving in 3Q2022 as the previous two quarters in 2022 were in contraction – but it is noteworthy that the data coming at the end of 3Q2022 is weak and may be signaling another contraction in 4Q2022.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 173 points or 0.56%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.43%,
• S&P 500 down 1.13%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $85 down 3.77%,
• USD $109.75 weakened 0.06%,
• Gold $1673 down 2.14%,
• Bitcoin $19.844 down 2.00% – Session Low 19,612,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.449% Unchanged,

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Index declined in September 2022. The index for returned to negative territory, falling from 6.2 in August to -9.9 this month. The new orders index remained negative, and the shipments index declined but remained positive. This index is showing a weakly growing economy.

Prices for U.S. imports grew 7.8% year-over-year in August following a 8.7% YoY in July whilst U.S. export prices grew 10.8% in August after growing 12.9% the previous month. The trend of inflation is this sector continues to modestly abate.

In the week ending September 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 224,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 1,000 from 233,000 to 232,000. New unemployment claims continues to modestly improve which is a sign of an improving economy.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2022, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were 9.1% above August 2021. This is the first month since March 2022 where the inflation-adjusted YoY growth returned to positive territory (1.2% – red line on the graph below). This implies the economy is modestly growing in August.

the September 2022 Empire State Manufacturing Survey index climbed thirty points to -1.5. New orders edged higher, and shipments increased sharply. This index is implying a modest decline in manufacturing.

According to the Federal Reserve, industrial production decreased 0.2% in August. However, year-over-year growth has been holding quite steady at 3.7%. In fact, all elements of industrial production remain in positive territory EXCEPT utilities which show a 1.6% YoY contraction. This data set is indicating the economy is expanding at a healthy rate.

The combined value of distributive trade sales and manufacturers’ shipments for July, adjusted for seasonal and trading day differences but not for price changes, was up 12.5% from July 2021. Inventories Manufacturers’ and trade inventories for July were up 18.4% from July 2021. The key indicator of the health of this sector is the total business inventories/sales ratio which was 1.32. The July 2021 ratio was 1.26. These numbers indicate that inventories are growing with respect to sales – but remain in the range seen in the last 10 years [it could be just the supply chain catching up].

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Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 30 points or 0.10%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.74%,
• S&P 500 up 0.34%,
• WTI crude oil settled at $89 up 2.03% for the week,
• USD $109.82 strengthened 0.14%,
• Gold $1705 down 0.73%,
• Bitcoin $19.958 down 1.07% – Session Low 19,691,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.412 Unchanged,

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Producer Price Index for final demand moved up 8.7% for the 12 months ended in August 2022 – down from last month’s 9.8%. The decrease in the index for final demand is attributable to a decline in final demand goods which was somewhat offset by a rise in final demand services. The CPI released yesterday for August 2022 showed an 8.2% YoY rise. In general, the CPI and PPI move in the same direction.