Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 14, 2023

February 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:29 p.m. Tuesday, February 14, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
252 PM EST Tue Feb 14 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Feb 15 2023 – 00Z Fri Feb 17 2023

…Strong low pressure is expected to bring heavy snow and possibly
blizzard conditions for portions of the northern Plains and upper
Mississippi Valley tonight into Wednesday…

…A new area of low pressure pivoting across the Southwest will bring
much colder temperatures and heavy snow to the Four Corners region through
Wednesday…

…Low pressure ejecting from the southern Plains to the Ohio Valley will
bring snow from the central High Plains to portions of the Midwest and
Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday…

…Strong to severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rainfall will impact
areas from the Arklatex and lower Mississippi Valley through the Mid-South
and Ohio Valley Wednesday into Thursday…

13 Feb2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Closes Higher Before Tuesday’s Inflation Report

February 13, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 377 points or 1.11%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.48%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.14%,
  • Gold $1865 down $9.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.36,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.709% down 0.034 points,
  • USD $103.29 down $0.34,
  • Bitcoin $21,665 – 24H Change down $307.98 – Session Low $21,423

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

This month’s Survey of Consumer Expectations shows median inflation expectations remained unchanged at 5.0% at the one-year horizon, decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 2.7% at the three-year horizon, and rose 0.1 points to 2.5% at the five-year horizon, according to the January Survey of Consumer Expectations. Median expected growth in household income dropped by 1.3 percentage points to 3.3%, the largest one-month drop in the series’ history. The series, however, remains well above its pre-pandemic levels.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Markets ‘Unshaken’ By Russian Output Threat
  • More Than Half Of Europe’s Electricity Comes From Clean Energy Sources
  • Europe’s Gas Prices Drop To The Lowest Level Since September 2021
  • Inflation report due Tuesday has the potential to deliver some bad news
  • Stocks close higher, Dow pops 300 points ahead of Tuesday’s inflation report: Live updates
  • Monday’s rally raises the stakes ahead of inflation data release — listen to the ‘Homestretch’
  • Super Bowl betting sets records for sportsbooks
  • The Margin: 5 reasons you shouldn’t go to a restaurant on Valentine’s Day
  • Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield hits 12-week high as inflation data looms

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 13, 2023

February 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 2:54 p.m. Monday, February 13, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EST Mon Feb 13 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Feb 14 2023 – 00Z Thu Feb 16 2023

…The recent series of strong upper lows affecting the Lower 48 will
continue over the next two days with active weather across much of the
western to central U.S…

..Blizzard conditions possible across portions of the Northern
Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday night into Wednesday, while heavy
snows are likely through the higher terrain of the west into the Central
High Plains…

…A sharp temperature contrast across the Lower 48 with much below
average temperatures across the west and much above average temperatures
from the central to eastern U.S…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 12, 2023

February 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:53 p.m. Sunday, February 12, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sun Feb 12 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Feb 13 2023 – 00Z Wed Feb 15 2023

…Unsettled weather will expand across the West through the next couple
of days with heavy mountain snows over the Four-Corners and along the
Cascades…

…A low pressure system will trigger an expanding area of showers and
thunderstorms over the Central/Southern Plains Monday night into Tuesday…

…Unseasonably mild and mostly tranquil weather for the eastern half of
the country to start the week…

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 11, 2023

February 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sat Feb 11 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Feb 12 2023 – 00Z Tue Feb 14 2023

…Wet and dreary end to the weekend for the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic;
snow, sleet, and freezing rain for the Appalachians…

…Multiple areas of unsettled weather for the West beginning Sunday with
heavy snow for the Cascades…

…Unseasonably mild weather for the center of the country; Elevated Risk
of Fire Weather for the Southern High Plains Sunday…

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 1, Expanded

February 11, 2023Posted inmacroeconomics2 Comments

“Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon.”
.    – – Milton Friedman1

Nobel laureate Milton Friedman is considered to be the father of monetarism. This macroeconomic theory enjoyed popularity in the late 20th century but has come under increased criticism in the 21st century.  Monetary theory is deeply linked to arguments about the causes of inflation.  As shown here, there is little data to support Friedman’s theory that government spending generally causes inflation.  The issue is not as simple as he made it seem.


Milton Friedman, age 77, 1989.  Credit: Encyclopedia Britannica.

10 Feb2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Markets Close Mixed With Dow Up 170 Points

February 10, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 169 points or 0.50%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.61%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.22%,
  • Gold $1875 closed down $3.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $1.74,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.745% up 0.062 points,
  • USD $103.57 up $0.35,
  • Bitcoin $21,713 – 24H Change down $255.56 – Session Low $21,579
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +2 to 761 Canada +1 to 250

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The outlook for the U.S. economy in 2023 looks somewhat better now than it did three months ago, according to 37 forecasters surveyed in the First Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 0.6% this quarter and 1.0% in the second quarter of 2023, up from the previous predictions of 0.2% in each quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase by 1.3% in 2023, up from the projection of 0.7% in the survey of three months ago.

The New York Fed’s Labor Market for Recent College Graduates page has been updated.  Check out new 2022:Q4 data on unemployment, underemployment, and underemployed job types, as well as the annual update of data on wages and labor market outcomes by major.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Oil Drilling Activity Picks Up Amid Rising Crude Prices
  • BP Shares Have Jumped Nearly 20% This Week
  • Oil Markets Balance Fed Fears With Chinese Demand Optimism
  • Dow closes nearly 170 points higher, S&P 500 posts worst week since December: Live updates
  • U.S. shoots down second ‘high altitude object’ days after Chinese spy balloon
  • Investors will have their eyes on the consumer price index in the week ahead
  • Texas Drops Citi From Huge Muni Transaction Over Gun Policy
  • Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks trade mixed, S&P 500 heads for worst week since December

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 10, 2023

February 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:33 p.m. EST Friday, February 10, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EST Fri Feb 10 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Feb 11 2023 – 00Z Mon Feb 13 2023

…Mixed precipitation and heavy snow over northern Maine today will
gradually taper off tonight…

…Heavy rain, strengthening winds, and possibly severe thunderstorms are
expected to expand across the Southeast on Saturday…

…Heavy wet snow, sleet and some freezing rain is expected to develop
near/over the central and southern Appalachians Saturday night into Sunday
morning…

NOAA Updates it’s ENSO Outlook on February 9, 2023 – Changes are Coming

February 10, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:23 p.m. EST Friday, February 10 to include a second interesting ENSO Blog Article. You have to click where shown to read them.

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status. The best guess remains March.

This may seem like a repeat of our article from last month and in a way it is since the situation has not changed. But no change increases the confidence in the forecast.

And again some of the models suggest a rapid change to El Nino. It seems likely that the ENSO Neutral Phase will at the very least have an El Nino bias.

Because the situation has not changed, we have published a shorter version of our usual article since there is little disagreement that we are transitioning away from La Nina. It is also a bit too early to examine the potential for an El Nino. We need to get past the Spring Prediction Barrier (SPB) to be confident about having an El Nino soon.

The article includes two very interesting posts from the ENSO Blog. They are worth reading.