August 25, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 25, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to tonight and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley/Western Gulf Coast through Thursday
morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southwest and Northern Rockies through Thursday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern
Rockies and Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley/Central Gulf Coast
from Thursday into Friday morning...

24 August 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Main Indexes Remained In The Green After A Late Afternoon Pullback, Treasury Yields Climb After Hawkish Remarks by Fed’s Kashkari

August 24, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 60 points or 0.18%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.41%,
  • S&P 500 up 0.29%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $95 up 9.39% for the week,
  • USD $108.65 up 0.13%,
  • Gold $1765 up 0.24%,
  • Bitcoin $21,695 up 0.72% – Session Low 21,172,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.111% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in July decreased by less than $0.1 billion or virtually unchanged. This decrease follows four consecutive monthly increases. This is a 10.8% increase year-over-year but the data was not inflation adjusted. The graph below shows the inflation-adjusted durable goods was down 0.7% year-over-year.
Pending home sales declined for the second consecutive month in July, and for the eighth time in the last nine months. The Pending Home Sales is home sales based on contract signings, slid 1.0% in July. Year-over-year, pending transactions sank 19.9% (see graph below)
Total summer jobs added for teens fell 4% in 2022 from the same period in 2021. Employers added 1,239,000 teen jobs in May, June, and July this year, compared to 1,295,000 jobs added last summer. Andrew Challenger, economic expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:
The fact that fewer jobs were added for this cohort this summer than the previous summer indicates establishments that employ teen workers either had enough staff going into the summer or were planning for a downturn that would stifle demand, opting not to add positions.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Diesel Prices Climb For First Time In Two Months
  • North Sea Gas Production Increases 26%
  • Pending home sales slip 1% in July, but Realtors say the market may be ‘at or close to the bottom’
  • Nordstrom cuts full-year forecast, citing slowing customer demand
  • How Starlink Changes Bitcoin Mining And Improves Decentralization
  • California to unveil rules to ban sales of gas-powered new vehicles by 2035
  • Bond Report: Treasury yields climb to highest since June after hawkish remarks by Fed’s Kashkari

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

August 24, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 24, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to today and the next 48 hours from this morning’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threats over the lower Mississippi Valley
may shift farther east into Alabama...

...Above average temperatures to continue from the inland valleys of
California into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, while below average
temperatures expected across the South from the Southern Plains into the
Southeast...

23 August 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Financial Markets Remain Unsettled As Wednesday’s Possible Fed Rate-Hike Approaches, Indexes Sea-Saw Across The Unchanged Line Closing Down In Last Five Minutes

August 23, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 154 points or 0.47%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.00% (flat),
  • S&P 500 down 0.22%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 94 up 6.60% for the week,
  • USD $108.61 down 0.32%,
  • Gold $1760 up 0.7%,
  • Bitcoin $21,569 up 0.71% – Session Low 20,920,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.05% unchanged

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Richmond Fed manufacturing firms reported slowdowns in August 2022 with their composite manufacturing index falling from 0 in July to −8 in August. Two of its three component indexes tumbled: the indexes for shipments and volume of new orders slid from 7 and −10 in July to −8 and −20 in August, respectively.

Sales of new single‐family houses in July 2022 were 12.6%  below the revised June rate and is 29.6% below the July 2021 estimate. The median sales price of new houses sold in July 2022 was $439,400.  The average sales price was $546,800.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Bullish OPEC+ Rhetoric Sends Oil Prices Soaring
  • European Crop Yields Collapse Amid Worst Drought In 500 Years
  • Macy’s cuts full-year forecast despite strong quarter, fearing shoppers will pull back on spending
  • Dick’s Sporting Goods boosts 2022 outlook after second-quarter earnings top estimates
  • Intel Inks $30 Billion Financing Partnership With Brookfield To Fund Manufacturing Expansion
  • Futures Movers: Oil prices rebound; natural gas pulls back from 14-year highs
  • Crypto: What is the Ethereum Merge? Here are 5 things you should know

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

JAMSTEC Issues their Three-Season World Forecast based on August 1 ENSO Conditions.

August 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Usually, I compare the JAMSTEC forecast with the NOAA forecast after NOAA Issues its Seasonal Outlook. But this month, JAMSTEC was very early so I thought I would share it with everyone early. But I did not get around to doing it until now. NOAA calls their predictions an outlook but JAMSTEC calls their predictions a forecast. I am going to show the JAMSTEC forecasts by month and by season and some of the indices they use in their model. They make world forecasts and for any readers who do not realize it, the U.S. is part of the world so it is covered by a world forecast.

I like the JAMSTEC forecast because the U.S. is part of the world and our weather is not independent of the worldwide weather pattern. In fact, most of U.S. weather originates in the Pacific Ocean and the Pacific Ocean is where Japan is located. In fact, Japan and the US jointly manage the monitoring system along the Equator that helps predict the phases of ENSO. So one of the reasons I include worldwide forecasts in articles is to encourage the understanding of worldwide weather patterns. It is not that the U.S. does not cooperate with other nations with respect to weather forecasts as it does. But to view weather forecasts on the Internet or TV you would not easily notice that. The U.S. media pays hardly any attention to what other meteorological agencies predict.

August 23, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 23, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding threats expected across areas of east
Texas into the Lower Mississippi Valley over the next two days...

...Above average temperatures to continue from the inland valleys of
California into the Great Basin and Pacific Northwest, while below average
temperatures expected across the South from the Southern Plains into the
Southeast...

22 August 2022 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Main Indexes Opened Down Indicating A Stunted Summer Rally, Remaining In The Red Through Out The Session

August 22, 2022Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 641 points or 1.90%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 2.55%,
  • S&P 500 down 2.13%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at 91 down 0.11%,
  • USD $108.94 up 0.77%,
  • Gold $1748 down 0.82%,
  • Bitcoin $21,032 down 2.17% – Session Low 20,938,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.029 up 0.73

Today’s Economic Releases:

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.27 in July 2022 from –0.25 in June. All four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in July, and all four categories improved from June. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, was unchanged at –0.09 in July. Economic forecasting uses the three month average – and this would mean that the economy is expanding slightly below its historical trend (average) rate of growth. The CFNAI is the best coincident indicator of the economy – and it makes sense that this indicator views the economy as slightly soft.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today released the July 2022 SCE Labor Market Survey, which shows a decline in transitions to a different employer, compared to a year ago. Satisfaction with wage compensation at respondents’ current jobs deteriorated, while satisfaction with nonwage benefits and promotion opportunities improved. Regarding expectations, the average expected likelihood of receiving an offer in the next four months declined. The average expected wage offer (conditional on receiving one), as well as the average reservation wage — the lowest wage at which respondents would be willing to accept a new job — increased year-over-year. Expectations regarding job transitions improved.

August 22-29 Elliott Wave International invites you to join their Trader Education Week — a free chance to learn a ton, and very quickly — from just 5 video lessons. They do not want your credit card info. The Week is brought to you by their Trader’s Classroom, a video mentoring service for traders seeking to improve. Your 5 lessons come straight from the editor Jeffrey Kennedy, one of the world’s top technical analysts.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Europe Splurges on Russian Oil As EU Ban Nears
  • Chinese Banks Slash Key Interest Rate In Bid To Bolster Stalling Economy
  • Ford to eliminate 3,000 jobs in an effort to cut costs
  • Single-stock ETFs are ‘way too risky for 99% of investors,’ an advisor says. What to know before adding one to your portfolio
  • Nomura Warns “Fed’s Hands Are Tied” For Now As USDollar “Wrecking Ball” Tightens Global Financial Conditions
  • Futures Movers: Natural-gas prices surge to their highest level since 2008; oil slips

These and other headlines and news summaries moving the markets today are included below.

August 22, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 22, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy rainfall event unfolding across the southern Plains to the lower
Mississippi Valley over the next few days...

...Rounds of strong thunderstorms expected to continue moving across the
Ohio Valley and the Appalachians this evening...

...Heat in the Northwest will spread east into the northern Plains as
unsettled weather moves into the East Coast...

August 21, 2022 Looking Ahead 28 Days Plus a Review of State Temperature and Precipitation Rankings

August 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 6 pm EDT August 23, 2022. It was not possible to update the Week 3-4 Outlooks as they only update on Fridays

Southern Tier to be very wet for the next two weeks.

NOAA updates many of their weather outlooks and in many cases issues a discussion with those outlooks. On Fridays, they issue a week 3 – 4 outlook which is farther out than the typical 10-day forecast and the discussion is excellent. So we have decided to issue a weekly special report on Fridays.

When the Week 3-4 Outlook is issued, we have a 28-day view of the future. It is important to recognize that the forecasts do not always work out as predicted. But in the article, there are links to obtain updated forecasts. Since we are often publishing this article on Sunday, we then only have a 26-day view of the future. Sorry about that. It is really a 27-day view but Sunday readers are seeing it one day late. But 26 days is still a pretty long forecast. The update I just made did not update the week – 4 Outlook but it updated all the Outlooks for the next 14 days. There will be a new article soon with the updated Week 3 – 4 Outlook, but I might update it in this article also. The links are provided for all the graphics so the reader can get the updated version but this article is now up to date except for the Week3 – 4 Outlook which can not be updated until Friday.

We have also taken a look at the state temperature and precipitation rankings for Sept to November LAST YEAR and Year to Date (YTD) This year. Some may view that as apples and oranges but it will give us something to compare against as the next three months evolve. So we can come back in early December to see how the two years compare.  My guess is that it will be pretty similar but it may be interesting to some people.

August 21, 2022: 48-Hour Weather Report and Intermediate-Term Outlooks; Tropical

August 21, 2022Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to this evening and the next 48 hours from this evening’s NWS Forecast.

...Heavy Rainfall event to unfold across the Southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley over the next several days...

...Potential Tropical Cyclone Four is forecast to reach southern Texas as
a Tropical Depression on Sunday...

...Above average temperatures in the Northwest and Northeast...

...Scattered to severe thunderstorms possible across the Midwest/Ohio
Valley through Sunday...