02 March 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Opened Lower And Traded Sideways Before Climbing Into the Green In The Late Afternoon Session, Finally Closing Moderately Higher

March 2, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 342 points or 1.05%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.73%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.76%,
  • Gold $1843 down $2.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.27,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.069% up 0.073 points,
  • USD $104.96 up $0.47,
  • Bitcoin $23,467 – 24H Change up $55.70 – Session Low $23,242

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity (updated) decreased 1.8% year-over-year in 4Q2022 – whilst unit labor costs increased 6.8% year-over-year. Never a good sign when labor costs increase faster than productivity.

In the week ending February 25, the advance figure for unemployment insurance weekly claims 4 week moving average was 193,000, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 191,250. The unemployment claims rate is consistent with times of economic expansion.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Green Hydrogen Will Play A Critical Role In A Net-Zero Future
  • Department Of Energy Says It’s Preparing For SPR Purchases—Next Year
  • Oil Ticks Up On Improved U.S. Economic Data
  • Russia’s Latest Output Cut Shows Its Oil Weapon Is Weakening
  • Stocks close higher, Dow gains 300 points as Fed’s Bostic spurs relief rally: Live updates
  • Mortgage rates jump back over 7% as inflation fears drive yields higher
  • Dan Loeb Takes Passive Stake In AMD, Stock Jumps
  • Market Snapshot: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq push higher as stocks look past rising Treasury yields

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 2, 2023

March 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 7:15 p.m. Thursday March 2, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
240 PM EST Thu Mar 02 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Mar 03 2023 – 00Z Sun Mar 05 2023

…A powerful storm to bring multiple hazards from the Southern Plains.
northeastward through the Lower Arkansas Valley, Lower Mississippi Valley,
Ohio Valley, Tennessee Valley, Lower Great Lakes and into New England…

..Record warmth persists across portions of Florida, while record cold
returns to California this weekend…

…Rain and additional heavy mountain snows to return to northern
California on Saturday…

01 March 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Fractionally Higher But Closed Mixed After Dancing Along The Unchanged Line

March 1, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 5 points or 0.02%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.66%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.47%,
  • Gold $1845 up $7.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 up $0.67,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.004% up 0.09 points,
  • USD $104.43 down $0.44,
  • Bitcoin $23,409 – 24H Change up $138.67 – Session Low $23,062

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The headlines say construction spending during January 2023 was 5.7% above January 2022. If one inflation adjusts this data, construction spending is down 9.3% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below). This decline is across the board – private, public, residential, and nonresidential.

The February Manufacturing PMI registered 47.7%, 0.3 percentage points higher than the 47.4% recorded in January. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a third month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. In the last two months, the Manufacturing PMI has been at its lowest level since May 2020, when it registered 43.5%. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47%, 4.5 percentage points higher than the figure of 42.5 percent recorded in January.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Goldman Sees Oil Price Spike In 2024 As Spare Capacity Runs Thin
  • Small Nuclear Reactors Get Boost As Western Cities Vote ‘Yes’
  • Hydrogen Cars Could Soon Compete With Electric Vehicles
  • Oil Rebounds On Smaller Than Expected Crude Build
  • S&P 500 and Nasdaq close lower to begin March as the 10-year Treasury yield touches 4%: Live updates
  • David Einhorn says investors should be ‘bearish on stocks and bullish on inflation’
  • Bitcoin rises to start March, and another ex-FTX exec pleads guilty: CNBC Crypto World
  • Cannabis Watch: Cannabis company Green Thumb beats revenue estimate but posts loss on noncash impairment

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates It’s March 2023 Outlook on February 28, 2023

March 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is March of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for March and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important changes within the NOAA Discussion. We also provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for March for comparison.  From the NOAA Discussion:

  • “the updated temperature outlook has increased forecast coverage and probabilities for below-normal temperatures for the western CONUS and for the northern Plains, Midwest, Great Lakes, mid-Atlantic and Northeast.”
  • “Stronger support for favored below-normal monthly mean temperatures for more of the central and eastern CONUS resulted in a reduction in the depicted area for favored above-normal temperatures which are now forecast from Texas eastward to the lower Atlantic seaboard.”
  • “a somewhat southward displaced overall anomalous precipitation forecast pattern.”

The article includes the Drought Outlook for March. We have also included the current fire incidents (not many) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the year-to-date snowpack in the West. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted March 1, 2023

March 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:20 p.m. EST Wednesday March 1, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
155 PM EST Wed Mar 01 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Mar 02 2023 – 00Z Sat Mar 04 2023

…Relief from stormy weather for California…

…Heavy snows likely across the Southwest into the Southern Rockies…

…Critical Fire weather threat for portions of the Southern High Plains…

…Heavy rains, flash flooding and severe thunderstorm threats stretch
across the Southern Plains, Lower Arkansas Valley, Lower Mississippi
Valley, Tennessee Valley and Ohio Valley…

…Record warmth to continue along the Gulf Coast Thursday and over
Florida on Friday…

…Locally heavy snows for northern New England tonight into Thursday…

28 Feb2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Dow And S&P 500 Turn Lower As Markets Close In The Red On Last Day Of February

February 28, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 232 points or 0.71%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.10%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.3%,
  • Gold $1835 up $9.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.27,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.924% up 0.002 points,
  • USD $104.97 up $0.29,
  • Bitcoin $23,215 – 24H Change down $101.08 – Session Low $23,223

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a 4.6% year-over-year gain, down from 6.8% in the previous month. Miami, Tampa, and Atlanta reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in December. Miami led the way with a 15.9% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 13.9% increase, and Atlanta in third with a 10.4% increase. All 20 cities reported lower prices in the year ending December 2022 versus the year ending November 2022. CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp added:

With a full year of data, S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index once again proved that 2022 was incredibly volatile for the housing market. By all accounts, housing markets experienced historic highs and lows in a matter of months. In December, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index posted a 5.8% year-over-year increase, marking the eighth straight month of decelerating annual home price gains and a 15-percentage point slower rate of growth than at the peak in May 2022. In contrast, December’s annual gain was the slowest since August 2020. Home prices are down 4.4% from spring peak to December, with four times larger declines in San Francisco and Seattle. New York, Cleveland, and Chicago are faring relatively better, with total declines at only 3% through December.

While the rapid reversal of price growth is evident across markets, West and Mountain West continue to lead with declines while some recently hot markets, such as Tampa, Florida, Dallas and San Diego, are rapidly catching up. Interestingly though, despite recent price declines, the national annual average growth of 15% for 2022 is still the second highest on record.

The Richmond Fed’s manufacturing firms reported a deterioration in business conditions in February, according to the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index decreased from −11 in January to -16 in February. Of its three component indexes, shipments saw the largest change, declining notably from −3 in January to −15 in February. The employment index declined from −3 to −7 in February, while the new orders index remained unchanged at −24. Most other manufacturing surveys have shown declining manufacturing.

According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc., the number of CEO changes at U.S. companies rose 12% from 100 in December to 112 in January. January’s total is down 10% from the 125 CEOs who left their posts in the same month one year prior. January’s has the highest number of CEO exits on average than any other month.

The Chicago Business Barometer declined by a further 0.7 points in February to 43.6, the lowest since November ’22. The headline index signaled a sixth consecutive month of contractionary business activity. The markets believe this index provides a good forecast for the national ISM Manufacturing PMI.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index decreased in February for the second consecutive month. The Index now stands at 102.9 (1985=100), down from 106.0 in January (a downward revision). According to the authors of this index, the decrease reflected large drops in confidence for households aged 35 to 54 and for households earning $35,000 or more.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Wind Power Accounted For 25% Of Texas’ Electricity Generation In 2022
  • Russia’s Oil Exports Still Strong Despite Sanctions
  • OPEC’s February Oil Production Jumped By 150,000 Bpd
  • BP’s CEO Warns Of Oil And Gas Price Spikes If Energy Transition Is Rushed
  • Dow closes more than 200 points lower Tuesday, major averages end February with losses: Live updates
  • 10-year Treasury yield hits highest level since November
  • Bitcoin, ether on track for a positive February despite mid-month drop and fading 2023 risk rally
  • Newsom’s Plan To Cap Oil Profits In California Faces Bipartisan Skepticism
  • The Margin: Elon Musk may create ChatGPT rival, new report says
  • Market Extra: 10-year Treasury yield knocks on door of 4% as threats to markets and economy grow

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Forecast: Today, Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted February 28, 2023

February 28, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 3:35 p.m. Tuesday, February 28, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
235 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Mar 01 2023 – 00Z Fri Mar 03 2023

…Additional Heavy Snows through the Sierra and into the mountains of
Southern California tonight into Wednesday and across the Southwest
Wednesday into Thursday and across portions of the Southern to Central
High Plains on Thursday…

…Record Cold across Central to Southern California Wednesday…

…Record Warmth from the Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley Wednesday and
along the Gulf Coast on Thursday…

…Heavy rains, isolated flash flooding and severe thunderstorms possible
late Wednesday night into early Thursday from the Lower Mississippi Valley
into the Tennessee Valley…

…Critical Fire weather risk across the Southern High Plains…

…Snows diminish across New England tonight, while heavy snows develop
across the Northern Plains, Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Lakes region
Tuesday night into Wednesday…

27 Feb2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Open Higher But Back Off Minor Resistance Trending Down Closing Fractionally In The Green

February 27, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 72 points or 0.22%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.63%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.31%,
  • Gold $1824 up $7.00,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $0.65,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.926% down 0.023 points,
  • USD $104.66 down $0.56,
  • Bitcoin $23,347 – 24H Change down $275.47 – Session Low $23,166

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January 2023, down two of the last three months, decreased to 3.0% (0.1% inflation adjusted) year-over-year growth from 11.2% (5.6% inflation adjusted) in December 2022. It appears that this decrease was caused by a significant fall in new orders for civilian aircraft. Hold on to the seat of your pants as next month’s (February 2023) civilian aircraft new orders should explode with Air India’s 210 plane order to Boeing.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) — a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — improved 8.1% to 82.5 in January. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 24.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

Buyers responded to better affordability from falling mortgage rates in December and January.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Inflation Reduction Act: Opening Up Green Hydrogen Possibilities
  • U.S. Gasoline Prices 26 Cents Lower Than Last Year
  • Top Energy Trader Expects Oil Prices To Enter The $90-$100 Range
  • A rush of homes go under contract in January, but it’s unlikely to last
  • The negative market turnaround is all about one thing: Rates
  • Bitcoin drops 1% to start the week, and Texas regulators oppose Voyager deal: CNBC Crypto World
  • Ukraine war live updates: Putin warns NATO’s nuclear capability can’t be ignored; future world order is being decided, Russia says
  • Peter Schiff: History Shows It’s Impossible To Put The Inflation Genie Back In The Bottle
  • Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield edges down from nearly 16-year high
  • Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks attempt to bounce back after worst week of 2023

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

March 2023 Economic Forecast: Data Improves But Inflation Uncertainties May Be A Monkey Wrench

February 27, 2023Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index continues to improve but remains slightly in negative territory. Interestingly, there continues to be improvement in the economic releases we view. Even industrial production and retail sales insignificantly gained. Yet, there is a potential chill in the air caused by inflation uncertainties. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.