Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index insignificantly improved but has barely returned to positive territory. What interesting events over this past month including the banking failures? Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
322 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2023Valid 00Z Fri Mar 31 2023 – 00Z Sun Apr 02 2023
…A major early spring storm to bring multiple hazardous impacts across
large sections of the Lower 48……Heavy snow and significant ice accumulations likely across portions of
the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Upper Great
Lakes……Severe weather threat through the Middle to Lower Mississippi Valley,
Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley……Heavy rains and flash flooding possible across the Ohio Valley, Lower
Mississippi Valley and Tennessee Valley……Critical Fire Weather threat, high winds and blowing sand likely across
the Southern High Plains…
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The number of CEO changes at U.S. companies surged 49% from 112 in January to 167 last month. February’s total is up 11% from the 151 CEOs who left their posts in the same month one year prior. February’s total is the highest monthly total since 219 CEOs left their posts in January 2020. So far this year, 279 CEOs have left their posts, virtually matching the 276 that occurred in the first two months of 2022. Andrew Challenger, leadership expert and Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:
The jump in CEO exits in February suggests companies are gearing up for a lot of change in the coming months.
Pending home sales in the United States decreased 21.1% year-over-year in February 2023, following a 24.1% fall in January, and marking a 21st straight month of declines.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD Wed Mar 29 2023Valid 12Z Wed Mar 29 2023 - 12Z Fri Mar 31 2023…Storm system brings more heavy rainfall/mountain snow to the West with
cooling temperatures……Snow squalls possible over the Interior Northeast on Wednesday…
…Precipitation chances increase over the Midwest and Plains Thursday
with a Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the Central/Southern High
Plains…
In a previous post (America is a lie!), I called out America as a lie. In this post, I argue that America is the most brainwashed, as well as brainwashing, country in the history of the world!
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices show that the trend of declining home price gains continued across the United States with declining prices reported in the San Francisco, San Diego, Portland, and Seattle markets. YEAR-OVER-YEAR The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller’s 20-City Composite posted a 2.5% year-over-year gain, down from 4.6% in the previous month. CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp stated:
Following the housing market freefall at the end of the year, the decline in mortgage rates in December and early January spurred some much-needed optimism for the housing market. In response to lower rates, home sales posted strong monthly gains in January and February, suggesting that pent-up buyer demand is eagerly responding to mortgage rate movements. Given the mortgage investor market response since Fed’s March meeting, home price growth may surprise to the upside if mortgage rates remain favorable, especially in light of continued supply constraints. But, ongoing volatility in mortgage rates and fallout from the banking crisis could put a damper on spring home-buying season, particularly if credit tightening impacts mortgage availability and consumer confidence takes another hit. In January, the CoreLogic S&P Case-Shiller Index posted a 3.8% year-over-year increase, marking the ninth straight month of decelerating annual home price gains. With a sharp 17 percent point decline in home price growth over the year, January’s annual gain was the slowest since the COVID pandemic started in the winter of 2019.
https://econcurrents.com/images/2023/03/case.png
https://econcurrents.com/images/2023/03/case.png
https://econcurrents.com/images/2023/03/case.png
Driven by an uptick in expectations, consumer confidence improved somewhat in March, but remains below the average level seen in 2022 (104.5). The gain reflects an improved outlook for consumers under 55 years of age and for households earning $50,000 and over. While consumers feel a bit more confident about what’s ahead, they are slightly less optimistic about the current landscape. The share of consumers saying jobs are ‘plentiful’ fell, while the share of those saying jobs are ‘not so plentiful’ rose. The latest results also reveal that their expectations of inflation over the next 12 months remains elevated—at 6.3 percent. Overall purchasing plans for appliances continued to soften while automobile purchases saw a slight increase.
The 2023 SCE Housing Survey, which is part of the broader Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE) and provides information on consumers’ housing-related experiences and expectations. The results show that households expect home prices to increase over the coming twelve months at the slowest pace since the survey began in 2014. In contrast, home price expectations over the next five years increased relative to last year’s survey. Expectations about the one-year-ahead change in the cost of rent were considerably higher than home price expectations but declined relative to last year’s series high. Homeowners’ expectations about the likelihood of refinancing their mortgage over the next 12 months fell sharply to a new series low. The probability of buying a home conditional on a move over the next three years rose overall, driven by higher expectations among current owners. A large majority of households continue to view housing as a good financial investment, although the share characterizing housing as a “somewhat good” or “very good” investment declined slightly from February 2022.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Valid 00Z Wed Mar 29 2023 - 00Z Fri Mar 31 2023 ...Powerful storm system brings more heavy rainfall/mountain snow to the West with cooling temperatures... ...Heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding tapers off across the Southeast tonight... ...Chance for light snow across the Great Lakes, followed by a frigid airmass... ...Snow squalls possible over the Interior Northeast on Wednesday evening...
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey expanded slightly in March after contracting in February. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, moved up from -2.8 to 2.5, a reading suggestive of a modest increase in output. Other measures of manufacturing activity showed mixed signals this month. The new orders sub-index was negative for the 10th month in a row and came in at -14.3, little changed from February.
A summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Mon Mar 27 2023Valid 00Z Tue Mar 28 2023 – 00Z Thu Mar 30 2023
…Heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding and severe weather
continues in the Southeast……Series of frontal systems increase precipitation chances for the
Northeast through Tuesday……Chilly temperatures and the chance for snow across portions of the
Plains and Great Lakes……Powerful storm system to bring yet another round of heavy snow/rainfall
to California with cooling temperatures…
Note: This was posted at 4:24 pm on March 26 with some incomplete sections. Updating in was completed at 2:52 am March 28.
In previous parts of this discussion, we have made some qualitative observations about relationships involving the correlations between U.S. federal government spending and inflation in the U.S. economy. For the first time in this series, we will move into the arena of quantitative measurements of government spending and inflation correlations.
Credit: Photo by Mahdi Soheili on Unsplash