EconCurrents

NOAA Updates it’s Four-Season Outlook on April 20, 2023 – The Southwest Monsoon is expected to be less productive than usual. An El Nino Winter is Expected

By Sig Silber April 21, 2023weatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued what I describe as their Four-Season Outlook. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the single month of May plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months. I present the information issued and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

It is very useful to read the excellent discussion that NOAA issues with this Seasonal Outlook. It is best to read the full discussion but here are some of the highlights:

ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring, followed by a 62% chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2023. An El Niño Watch has been issued, and the range of possibilities toward the end of the year includes a strong El Niño (4 in 10 chance of Niño-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C) to no El Niño (1 in 10 chance)

The combination of elevated snowpack and high soil moisture across much of the West coupled with below normal SSTs currently observed in the Gulf of California and the Pacific off the west Coast of the Baja California Peninsula would favor a slower evolution of monsoonal circulation.

El Niño is expected to become more of a factor and the pattern begins to increasingly reflect El Niño conditions during the cold months. As a result, enhanced probabilities of above normal temperatures indicated for the Southern CONUS late summer/early fall are reduced by the winter. Conversely, chances of above normal temperatures increase across the Northern Tier by the winter months.

As we enter the fall and winter months, the pattern begins to increasingly reflect an El Niño signature. Increased probabilities for above normal precipitation depicted across the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys during late summer and early fall transitions to the East and Gulf Coasts during the winter months, consistent with El Niño. Conversely, an increasingly dry signal is evident across the northwestern CONUS by the winter with probabilities of below normal precipitation exceeding 40 percent across the Pacific Northwest from November-December-January (NDJ) 2023-24 through JFM 2024. A tilt toward below normal precipitation is also indicated for the Great Lakes Region westward toward the Northern Plains during the cold months, consistent with El Niño.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Five-Day Forecast for the World: posted April 21, 2023

By Sig Silber April 21, 2023weatherNo Comments

Updated at 6:51 p.m. EDT Friday, April 21, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
313 PM EDT Fri Apr 21 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Apr 22 2023 – 00Z Mon Apr 24 2023

…Numerous showers and thunderstorms continue eastward along a cold front
from the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys today to the East Coast this weekend
with severe weather and flash flooding possible…

…Dome of high pressure to deliver widespread swath of abnormally chilly
temperatures from the Nation’s Heartland today and Saturday to the East
Coast by Sunday…

…Mountain snow and coastal/valley showers for the northern/central
Rockies and Pacific Northwest; unsettled and stormy second half of the
weekend for southern and central Texas...

20 April 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Markets Opened Sharply Lower, Tried To Recover, But closed In The Red

By Gary Hall April 20, 2023marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed down 110 points or 0.33%,
Nasdaq closed down 0.80%,
S&P 500 closed down 0.60%,
Gold $2,015 up $7.40,
WTI crude oil settled at $77 down $1.87,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.539% down 0.063 points,
USD $101.86 down $0.11,
Bitcoin $28,144 down $1,110,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for April 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing-home sales in the United States fell 2.4% in March from February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.44 million – sales declined 22.0% from one year ago (blue line on the graph below). This was the fourth consecutive month of declines in existing-home sales. The median price for an existing home sold in March was $375,700, up 10.7% from a year ago (red line on the graph below). The supply of homes for sale at the end of March was 980,000, which is equal to 2.6 months of inventory at the current sales pace. The decline in existing-home sales was driven by a number of factors, including rising interest rates, inflation, and a slowdown in the economy. Interest rates have been rising in recent months, which has made it more expensive to buy a home. Inflation is also at a 40-year high, which is putting a strain on household budgets. And the economy is showing signs of slowing down, which could lead to fewer people buying homes. Despite the decline in existing-home sales, the housing market is still strong overall. Home prices are rising, and there is still strong demand for homes. However, the rising interest rates and inflation are likely to put some pressure on the housing market in the coming months.

The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank’s April 2023 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey (MBOS) showed that manufacturing activity in the Philadelphia Fed’s Third District contracted in April. The headline MBOSS index fell to -31.3 in April from 1.3 in March, its lowest level since May 2020. The index’s decline was driven by a sharp drop in new orders and a slowdown in production. The decline in the Philadelphia Fed’s MBOSS index in April suggests that manufacturing activity in the Third District contracted in April. The decline in new orders suggests that demand for manufactured goods is weakening. The slowdown in production suggests that manufacturers are producing less output. The decline in the Philadelphia Fed’s MBOSS index in April is consistent with other recent data that suggests that the U.S. economy is slowing.

The number of people filing for unemployment benefits in the United States rose by 27,457 to 234,577 in the week ending April 8, 2023, the U.S. Labor Department reported Thursday. The four-week moving average for new claims, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, rose by 7,500 to 215,000 (blue line on the graph below), the highest level since November 13, 2021.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the United States decreased by 0.7% in March 2023 to 110.2 (2016=100), after also falling 0.3% in February. The LEI is now down 0.8% over the six-month period between September 2022 and March 2023—slightly lower than the 1.0% growth it recorded over the previous six months. The LEI is a composite index of 10 economic indicators that are believed to forecast economic activity. The index is designed to anticipate turning points in the economy, typically three to six months in advance. The decline in the LEI in March was led by a decline in stock prices and a slowdown in consumer expectations. Stock prices fell sharply in March, as investors became more concerned about inflation and the potential for a recession. Consumer expectations also fell in March, as consumers became more concerned about the rising cost of living. The decline in the LEI in March suggests that the U.S. economy is slowing.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Marco Rubio Under Fire For Florida Gasoline Shortage
Oil Sheds 2% Amid Indications Of Fragile Demand
Ukraine’s Grain Flows Shift To Europe
China’s Coal Use Set To Rise With Growing EV Demand
SpaceX Starship rocket launches in historic test but explodes mid-flight
Nasdaq closes lower Thursday, dragged by Tesla shares: Live updates
Nuclear fusion will not be regulated the same way nuclear fission is — a big win for the fusion industry
Futures Movers: U.S. oil benchmark settles at nearly a 3-week low, below $80 on recession fears

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.