Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 154 points or 0.47%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.28%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.99%,
• Gold $1,996 up $13.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $1.96,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.605% down 0.032 points,
• USD Index $103.55 down $0.78,
• Bitcoin $26,864 down $209,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

ADP National Employment Report from the ADP Research Institute shows private employers created 278,000 jobs in May 2023 and annual pay was up 6.5 percent year-over-year. Job growth is strong while pay growth continues to slow. But gains in private employment were fragmented last month, with leisure and hospitality, natural resources, and construction taking the lead whilst manufacturing and finance lost jobs. Strong employment gains will allow the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates. Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist stated:

This is the second month we’ve seen a full percentage point decline in pay growth for job changers. Pay growth is slowing substantially, and wage-driven inflation may be less of a concern for the economy despite robust hiring.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 44% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down one point from April but still 20 points higher than the 49-year average reading. The percentage of owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 24% and 10% of owners reported labor costs as their single most important problem. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

The labor force participation rate remains below pre-COVID levels, which is contributing to the shortage of workers available to fill open positions. Small businesses have a record high level of job openings currently and are working hard to fill their open positions.

Construction spending during April 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of  7.2% above April 2022. However, when the spending is adjusted for inflation – spending declined 3.4% year-over-year. This is a sign of a weak economy.

In the week ending May 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 229,500, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 231,750 to 232,000.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased by 0.8% from the first quarter one year ago whilst labor costs increased by 3.8% in the same period. Whenever labor costs rise faster than productivity – it is not only inflationary but makes the country less competitive.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted 48.4 in May, down from 50.2 in April, but broadly in line with the earlier released ‘flash’ estimate of 48.5. The latest figure indicated the fastest deterioration in operating conditions since February. Contributing to the latest overall decline was a renewed and solid fall in new orders at manufacturing firms in May. The decrease was the sharpest in three months. Lower new sales were often attributed to sufficient inventory levels at customers and previous hikes in selling prices which served to dampen demand conditions. F

The May Manufacturing PMI^® registered 46.9%, 0.2 percentage point lower than the 47.1 percent recorded in April. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a sixth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion.

U.S.-based employers announced 80,089 job cuts in May, a 20% increase from the 66,995 cuts announced one month prior. It is 287% higher than the 20,712 cuts announced in the same month in 2022. So far this year, companies have announced plans to cut 417,500 jobs, a 315% increase from the 100,694 cuts announced in the same period last year. It is the highest January-May total since 2020.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• The Grid Needs A $20 Trillion Upgrade To Support Energy Transition
• Copper Prices Trounced By Falling Demand
• WTI Screams Back Up Past $70 Despite Crude Inventory Builds
• Natural Gas Prices Plunge Further Amid Rise In U.S. Stockpiles
• Why Apple’s VR headset could succeed where every similar product has failed
• Defense spending levels threaten to delay Senate plan to fast-track debt ceiling bill
• Stocks jump Thursday, Nasdaq pops 1% as traders cheer advancement of debt ceiling bill: Live updates
• Bitcoin suffers worst month of 2023, Circle cuts U.S. bonds on debt ceiling doubt: CNBC Crypto World
• Wage hikes may have been a key driver of inflation. They may now be fueling mass layoffs
• Planned Layoffs Are Up Fourfold So Far This Year
• Dell stock jumps after early earnings release shows largest sales decline on record, but still beats expectations

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 135 points or 0.41%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.63%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.61%,
• Gold $1,982 up $5.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $1.58,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.631% down 0.065 points,
• USD Index $104.22 up $0.05,
• Bitcoin $27,015 down $840,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of job openings edged up to 10.1 million on the last business day of April 2023. Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 6.1 million. Total separations decreased to 5.7 million. The trend lines for jobs growth are declining after peaking in March 2022.

The Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions (known as the Beige Book) shows economic activity was little changed overall in April and early May. It was summarized as follows:

Four Districts reported small increases in activity, six no change, and two slight to moderate declines. Expectations for future growth deteriorated a little, though contacts still largely expected a further expansion in activity. Consumer expenditures were steady or higher in most Districts, with many noting growth in spending on leisure and hospitality. Education and healthcare organizations saw steady activity on balance. Manufacturing activity was flat to up in most Districts, and supply chain issues continued to improve. Demand for transportation services was down, especially in trucking, where contacts reported there was a “freight recession.” Residential real estate activity picked up in most Districts despite continued low inventories of homes for sale. Commercial construction and real estate activity decreased overall, with the office segment continuing to be a weak spot. Outlooks for farm income fell in most districts, and energy activity was flat to down amidst lower natural gas prices. Financial conditions were stable or somewhat tighter in most Districts. Contacts in several Districts noted a rise in consumer loan delinquencies, which were returning closer to pre-pandemic levels. High inflation and the end of Covid-19 benefits continued to stress the budgets of low- and moderate-income households, driving increased demand for social services, including food and housing.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Argentina’s Vaca Muerta Shale Play Could Produce 1 Million Bpd In 2030
• Colombia’s President May Have To Rethink His Oil And Gas Exploration Ban
• American Offshore Wind Gets Gulf Of Mexico Green Light
• Reuters Survey: OPEC Output Down 460,00 BPD This Month
• Goldman And Others See Rising Odds Of Another OPEC+ Output Cut
• Gasoline Prices Tick Up For The Summer
• Singapore Detains Record Number Of Oil Tankers As Shadow Fleet Expands
• Stocks slip as investors look to House vote on the debt ceiling, Nasdaq pops nearly 6% in May: Live updates
• Debt ceiling bill poised to pass the House as Senate aims for a Friday vote

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 51 points or 0.15%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.32%,
• S&P 500 closed flat 0.00%,
• Gold $1,960 up $15.70,
• WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $2.94,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.683% down 0.137 points,
• USD Index $104.08 down $0.12,
• Bitcoin $27,852 up $192,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell in May to 102.3 (1985=100), down from an upwardly revised 103.7 in April. Ataman Ozyildirim, Senior Director, Economics at The Conference Board said:

Consumer confidence declined in May as consumers’ view of current conditions became somewhat less upbeat while their expectations remained gloomy. Their assessment of current employment conditions saw the most significant deterioration, with the proportion of consumers reporting jobs are ‘plentiful’ falling 4 ppts from 47.5 percent in April to 43.5 percent in May. Consumers also became more downbeat about future business conditions, weighing on the expectations index. However, expectations for jobs and incomes over the next six months held relatively steady. While consumer confidence has fallen across all age and income categories over the past three months, May’s decline reflects a particularly notable worsening in the outlook among consumers over 55 years of age.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a -1.1% year-over-year loss, down from a 0.4% gain in the previous month. Selma Hepp, CoreLogic chief economist noted that higher-priced homes are once again leading the monthly gains in prices after months of relatively larger weakness following the housing slowdown.

Texas factory activity remained relatively flat in May with the production index marginally down from 0.9 to -1.3, with the near-zero reading suggestive of little change in output from last month. Manufacturing is weak in all Fed districts.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Exxon Is Ramping Up Activity In Offshore Guyana As The Economy Soars
• Lithium Market To Remain Tight Through 2024: Chile
• WTI Plunges Below $70 With U.S. Debt Deal In Jeopardy
• Tax Credit Uncertainty Could Derail $1-Billion Pink Hydrogen Project
• Gasoline Demand Over Memorial Day Weekend Lower Than In 2022
• Debt ceiling bill faces a tough path in the House as GOP opposition grows
• Nvidia crosses into $1 trillion market cap before giving back gains
• Dow finishes Tuesday lower as Wall Street weighs odds of debt ceiling deal clearing Congress: Live updates
• Memorial Day air travel tops 2019 levels as consumers keep shelling out for trips
• Key Words: ‘There is no other China, there is only one China’: Nvidia CEO warns of ‘enormous damage’ if China chip war escalates.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.