Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 109 points or 0.33%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.24%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.14%,
• Gold $1,977 up $17.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $0.05,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.669% up 0.051 points,
• USD Index $103.19 down $0.39,
• Bitcoin $26,839 up $88,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -11 to 720 Canada -9 to 85

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

 

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.6% in April 2023 to 107.5 (2016=100), following a decline of 1.2% in March. The LEI is down 4.4% over the six-month period between October 2022 and April 2023—a steeper rate of decline than its 3.8% contraction over the previous six months (April–October 2022). According to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board:

The LEI for the US declined for the thirteenth consecutive month in April, signaling a worsening economic outlook. Weaknesses among underlying components were widespread—but less so than in March’s reading, which resulted in a smaller decline. Only stock prices and manufacturers’ new orders for both capital and consumer goods improved in April. Importantly, the LEI continues to warn of an economic downturn this year. The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic activity starting in Q2 leading to a mild recession by mid-2023.

[Note that EconCurrents has yet to forecast a recession – and currently is forecasting a slightly improving economy. However, the overall economy remains weak (especially goods manufacturing) and it would not take much of an economic event to cause the economy to recess.]

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Drilling Rigs Swing To Annual Loss For First Time In Years
• Warren Buffett Buys Up Even More Occidental Petroleum
• Oil Prices Climb As Bullish Sentiment Builds
• Bank Of America Sees Oil Prices Heading Toward $90 This Year
• Why The Market Didn’t React To The Latest SPR News
• New Mexico Accounted For 50% Of U.S. Oil Production Growth In 2022
• Republicans walk out of debt ceiling talks, say White House isn’t being ‘reasonable’
• Fed Chair Powell says rates may not have to rise as much as expected to curb inflation
• Foot Locker’s 28% plunge, guidance cut may signal trouble ahead for other retailers
• Powell signals a June pause, says Fed can afford to watch data

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 115 points or 0.34%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.51%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.94%,
• Gold $1,960 down $24.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $72 down $0.80,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.653% up 0.007 points,
• USD Index $103.52 up $0.64,
• Bitcoin $26,736 down $661,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia’s May Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey showed that manufacturing activity in the Third Federal Reserve District contracted in May. The survey’s headline index, which measures overall business activity, rose to -10.4 in May from -31.3 in April. This is the ninth consecutive month that the index has been negative. The survey’s indexes for new orders, shipments, and employment also remained negative in May. The survey’s prices paid and prices received indexes both rose in May. The prices paid index rose to 36.2 from 29.4 in April, and the prices received index rose to 19.0 from 10.2 in April. The survey’s future general activity index fell to -10.3 in May from -1.5 in April. This suggests that firms do not expect activity to improve much over the next six months. So far the regional Fed’s manufacturing surveys are showing a fall in manufacturing output.

Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. released its April 2023 CEO Turnover Report showing that 147 CEOs left their positions in April 2023, up from the 139 CEOs who left in March 2023. This is the highest quarterly toal since Q1 2020. Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. stated:

Companies have a lot to consider as we head to the second half of the year, as recession and inflation concerns continue. Many sectors are letting go of workers, and new technologies, like AI, are forcing conversations about use cases. This environment is conducive to new leadership.

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that existing-home sales, which are completed transactions that include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops, decreased 3.4% in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 4.28 million. The median existing-home price³ for all housing types in April was $388,800, a decline of 1.7% from April 2022 ($395,500). The decline in existing-home sales was likely due to a number of factors, including rising mortgage rates, rising home prices, and a limited supply of homes for sale.

The advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims for state unemployment insurance benefits in the week ending May 13 was 242,000, a decrease of 22,000 from the previous week’s unrevised level of 264,000. The four-week moving average was 244,250, a decrease of 1,000 from the previous week’s unrevised average of 245,250.

The ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach imported 657,000 Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in April 2023, down 23% in April 2022. This is the lowest monthly volume since April 2020. Exports were down 5% from April 2022.  Imports show consumption in the U.S. – and it appears that consumption is down which is indicative of a slowing economy. The Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach are the busiest ports in the United States and the second busiest ports in the world, in terms of container volume. They handle more than 40% of all containerized cargo entering the United States.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Russia’s Finally Starting To Cut Oil Production
• Stainless Steel Remains Buyers Market As Demand Growth Flatlines
• Chances Of World Reaching Net-Zero By 2050 Unlikely: Exxon
• Oil Prices Fall Again As Wall Street Sees Threat Of Historic Default
• Disney scraps plans for new Florida campus, mass employee relocation amid DeSantis feud
• Meta pulls the curtain back on its A.I. chips for the first time
• Stocks close higher for a second straight day, S&P 500 adds nearly 1% on hopes for a debt ceiling resolution: Live updates
• “Huge” Bearish Bets Gone Wrong Cost Carl Icahn $9 Billion In Losses
• Financial Crime: ‘Fraud is fun’: Teen hacker charged with breaking into DraftKings accounts leading to theft of $600,000

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 409 points or 1.24%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.28%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.19%,
• Gold $1,986 down $6.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $73 up $1.89,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.577% up 0.028 points,
• USD Index $102.85 up $0.29,
• Bitcoin $27,375 up $439,

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Here are the key findings from the Monthly New Residential Construction report for April 2023:

• Building permits: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in April 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,416,000. This is 1.5 percent below the revised March rate and is 21.1 percent below the April 2022 rate.
• Housing starts: Privately-owned housing starts in April 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,401,000. This is 2.3 percent below the revised March estimate and is 22.3 percent below the April 2022 rate.
• Construction completions: Privately-owned housing completions in April 2023 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,375,000. This is 10.4 percent below the revised March estimate , but is 1.0 percent above the April 2022 rate.

The decline in housing starts and permits in April 2023 was likely due to a number of factors, including rising interest rates, rising material costs, and a shortage of skilled labor. Rising interest rates make it more expensive to borrow money to build a home, which can discourage some people from buying a new home. Rising material costs make it more expensive to build a home, which can also discourage some people from buying a new home. A shortage of skilled labor can make it difficult for builders to complete projects on time and on budget, which can also discourage some people from buying a new home.

The decline in housing starts and permits is likely to have a negative impact on the overall economy. The housing market is a major driver of economic growth, and a decline in housing starts and permits can lead to a decline in economic growth.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Is The U.S. Preparing To Punish OPEC?
• The Massive Solar And Wind Waste Problem
• Oil Inches Down As EIA Confirms Crude Build
• Oil Prices Rise Amid Expectations Of A Tightening Market
• Stocks close higher Wednesday, Dow surges 400 points as traders grow optimistic on a debt ceiling deal: Live updates
• Elon Musk talks Tesla, Twitter, and why he tweets freely — even if it costs him money
• Disgraced Theranos CEO Elizabeth Holmes will report to jail on May 30
• Wildfires burn millions of acres in Canada, send oil prices higher
• FBI Leadership Sabotaged Clinton Foundation Investigations: Durham Report
• Market Snapshot: Dow up 350 points in final hour of trade on optimism about potential debt-ceiling deal, rebound in regional banks

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 336 points or 1.01%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.18%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.64%,
• Gold $1,994 down $28.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.51,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.538% up 0.003 points,
• USD Index $102.61 up $0.17,
• Bitcoin $26,916 down $465,

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2023 were $686.1 billion, up 0.4% from the previous month, and up 1.6% above April 2022 (down 3.3% year-over-year inflation adjusted). Here are some of the key findings from the report:

• Sales of nonstore retailers, which includes online retailers, were up 8.0 percent (±1.2 percent) from last year.
• Sales of food services and drinking places were up 9.4 percent (±2.5 percent) from April 2022.
• Sales of general merchandise stores were up 4.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year.
• Sales of motor vehicle and parts dealers were down 1.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year.
• Sales of building materials and garden supplies dealers were down 3.7 percent (±0.5 percent) from last year.

Overall, the advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for April 2023 were weak as inflation erodes the headline numbers.

The Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production for April 2023 came in at 103.0, up 0.5% from March 2023 and 0.2% from April 2022. The contributions of the major industry groups:

• Manufacturing: Down 0.9% from April 2022.
• Mining: Up 5.6% from April 2022.
• Utilities: Down 0.4% from April 2022.

Overall, the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production for April 2023 shows significant weakness with little growth.

 

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Copper Prices Slide Despite Expected Deficit
• Bullish Messaging Bolsters Oil Prices
• WTO Chief: Nigeria Can’t Rely On Oil & Gas Revenues
• Record Chinese Oil Demand Prompts IEA To Lift Global Growth Forecast
• Big Oil Could Face $12 Billion Bill To Clean Up Nigerian Spills
• Why Home Depot’s weak outlook could be a warning sign for Target earnings
• Here’s what happened during OpenAI CEO Sam Altman’s first hearing on artificial intelligence
• Black Sea grain deal that reopened key Ukraine ports set to expire this week as Kremlin mulls a potential extension
• Key Words: Comcast is ‘more likely than not’ to sell Hulu stake to Disney next year, CEO says
• Market Snapshot: Dow falls, Nasdaq edges up with U.S. debt-ceiling talks in focus

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 48 points or 0.14%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.66%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.30%,
• Gold $2,020 up $0.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $1.21,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.496% up 0.033 points,
• USD Index $102.42 down $0.26,
• Bitcoin $27,417 up $522,

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for May 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Empire State Manufacturing Index for May 2023 came in at -31.8, down from 10.8 in April. This is the lowest reading since April 2020, and it suggests that manufacturing activity in New York State is contracting at a rapid pace. The decline was driven by a sharp drop in new orders, which fell to -28.0 from 25.1 in April. Shipments also declined, falling to -16.4 from 23.9 in April. One month is not a trend but this decline was so steep that it makes one wonder if the manufacturing sector just hit a brick wall.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Iran Seizes Third Oil Tanker As U.S. Boosts Military Presence
• Global Platinum Shortage Set To Worsen
• U.S. Natural Gas Drilling Collapses At Fastest Fastest Pace Since 2016
• U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Set For A Significant Decline
• Consumer debt passes $17 trillion for the first time despite slide in mortgage demand
• S&P 500 closes higher as debt ceiling negotiations in Washington are set to resume: Live updates
• Microsoft releases update that allows iPhone users to text from Windows
• Dollar Weaponization Expands – FDIC Message To Foreign Depositors Is Don’t Trust The US
• US dollar falls from five-week high as data, debt ceiling weigh
• Bond Report: 2-year Treasury yield advances for third straight day amid hopes for debt-ceiling deal

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.