USDA has announced record winter wheat crop abandonment. Is this really significant news?
At first, it perplexed me since the total production of winter wheat is expected to increase slightly.
In this article, we explain how you can have an increase in production with an increase in crop abandonment.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
216 PM EDT Fri May 26 2023Valid 00Z Sat May 27 2023 – 00Z Mon May 29 2023
…A low pressure system is forecast to bring areas of heavy rain, gusty
winds and hazardous beach and boating conditions for the Southeast over
the Memorial Day weekend……Showers and thunderstorms expected to linger across the Great Basin,
northern and central Rockies, and the High Plains for the next few days……Warmer than normal across much of the Northwest and north-central U.S.
but much cooler than normal across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast…
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Overall US Mortgage Delinquency Rate Drops to All-Time Low in March according to CoreLogic. For the month of March, 2.6% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 0.3 percentage point decrease compared with 2.9% in March 2022 and a 0.4 percentage point decrease compared with 3% in February 2023.
Although the Chicago Fed National Activity Index for April improved, it is the 3-month moving average that is used for economic forecasting. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.22 in April from –0.12 in March. This index is the best of the coincident indicators – and generally, the trend lines are used for forecasting. Since the trend is down, it indicates the economy is slowing but the level indicates it is not close to recession levels.
Real GDP increased at an annual rate of 1.3% in the first quarter of 2023 – up from the advance estimate of 1.1%. This was down from an increase of 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022. The slowdown in GDP growth was due to a number of factors, including:
Note that the growth from the quarter one year ago is 1.6% – up from last quarter’s 0.9% (blue line on graph below). The inflation price index was 5.4% (down from last quarter’s 6.4% – red line on graph below). This continues to show inflation is moderating (but not very fast).
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) – a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings – remained at 78.9 in April, posting no change from the previous month. Year over year, pending transactions dropped by 20.3%.
In the week ending May 20, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims was 229,000, an increase of 4,000 from the previous week’s revised level. The previous week’s level was revised down by 17,000 from 242,000 to 225,000. The 4-week moving average was 231,750, unchanged from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 12,500 from 244,250 to 231,750.
Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity remained mostly steady in May 2023. The month-over-month composite index was -1 in May, up from -10 in April and down from 0 in March. Manufacturing appears very weak across all of the Federal Reserve districts.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
This article is based primarily on the May 23, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the May 15 – 21 period of time. The USDA report becomes available on Tuesdays. I will try to publish this article Tuesday night for viewing Wednesday morning but I am one day late this week.
Included in the USDA Crop Bulletin was information on the highest percentage abandonment of Winter Wheat since 2017. I included a link to additional information on this somewhat worrying trend. This year, drought in Kansas was a major factor in this. But it is more complicated than that.
The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions.
It is still early in the season but we beginning to have information on most crops. And overall it looks like a very good year developing.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
339 PM EDT Thu May 25 2023Valid 00Z Fri May 26 2023 – 00Z Sun May 28 2023
…Locally heavy rain and thunderstorms possible in the Southeast, Great
Basin, northern Rockies, and High Plains over the next few days……Hazardous beach conditions in the Southeast this weekend…
…Above average temps in the Northwest and North-Central U.S. and below
average temps in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast through the weekend…
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting minutes:
Economic activity expanded at a modest pace in the first quarter. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation remains elevated.
The U.S. banking system is sound and resilient. Tighter credit conditions for households and businesses are likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. The extent of these effects remains uncertain.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rThe Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.ate of 2 percent over the longer run. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 5 to 5-1/4 percent. The Committee will closely monitor incoming information and assess the implications for monetary policy. In determining the extent to which additional policy firming may be appropriate to return inflation to 2 percent over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.
Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michael S. Barr; Michelle W. Bowman; Lisa D. Cook; Austan D. Goolsbee; Patrick Harker; Philip N. Jefferson; Neel Kashkari; Lorie K. Logan; and Christopher J. Waller.
Quite a shock to the pundits who thought the FOMC would not raise rates. But there was a caveat that the Fed would stop raising rates if “risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals” – and I assume this means they will stop if banks start going belly up or a recession hits or ????
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
The Richmond Fed’s Survey of Manufacturing Activity for May 2023 showed that manufacturing activity in the Fifth District of the United States continued to decline. The composite index, which measures overall manufacturing activity, fell to -15 in May from -10 in April. The decline in manufacturing activity was driven by a number of factors, including:
The Monthly New Residential Sales for April 2023:
It is important to note that the market is still facing some challenges, such as rising construction costs and supply chain disruptions. These challenges could limit the pace of growth in new home sales in the months ahead.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
No significant releases today.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.
Many gambling activities involve betting on events for which the outcomes obey rigid, specified odds. When there is no mechanical bias, roulette wheels have fixed odds, including some that are binary (50:50) such as red vs. black. Betting on the flip of a coin is likewise a binary 50:50 proposition: heads or tails. Why is it then that there is a propensity for some gamblers to place wagers in a pattern conflicting with the known 50:50 odds? For example, after a string of blacks on a roulette wheel, why do some gamblers keep increasing the amounts bet on red with each succeeding black?
