02 June 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Big Day On Wall Street As The Dow Closes Above 700 Points

June 2, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 701 points or 2.12%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.07%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.45%,
  • Gold $1,965 down $30.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.84,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.695% down 0.088 points,
  • USD Index $104.04 up $0.48,
  • Bitcoin $27,272 up $385,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -15 to 696 Canada +10 to 97

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Note that a new study from the CDC suggests that 96% of Americans have some degree of immunity against COVID.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today that total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 339,000 in May, and the unemployment rate rose by 0.3 percentage points to 3.7 percent. 

The largest job gains in May were in professional and business services (+113,000), government (+56,000), health care (+52,000), construction (+30,000), and transportation and warehousing (+25,000).  On the surface, the numbers appear good, however:

  • the household survey portion of the data says the workforce employment DECLINED by 310,000 versus the establishment portion (which provides the headline payroll employment numbers) says employment increased by 339,000.
  • the household portion (which provides the headline unemployment percentages) says the labor force increased by 130,000.
  • with such a discrepancy between the establishment and household surveys- I would be really slow to discuss any takeaways from the May employment report. So, let the pundits spin this piece of crap report any way they like but you should know that the spin is pure opinion.
  • in any event, hours worked is normal for periods of economic expansion.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Oil Prices Climb As U.S. Rig Count Sees Another Double-Digit Decline
  • The Market Expects OPEC+ To Keep Oil Production Unchanged
  • Oil Markets On Edge Ahead Of OPEC Meeting
  • Dow leaps 700 points on hot jobs report, Nasdaq notches sixth straight winning week: Live updates
  • Here’s where the jobs are for May 2023 — in one chart
  • Telecom stocks fall on report Amazon considers launching mobile service for Prime members
  • West Coast ports shut down as union workers ‘no show’ after breakdown in wage negotiations
  • Bitcoin crosses $27,000, and lawsuit accuses Elon Musk of manipulating DOGE’s price: CNBC Crypto World
  • FBI To Finally Hand Over Biden Corruption Docs Under Threat Of Contempt
  • Verizon’s stock sinks to 12-year low while Dish’s soars after report Amazon is in talks to offer mobile plans for Prime members
  • Market Extra: S&P 500 nears bear-market exit. Will Big Tech’s rally finally spread to the broader stock market?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weekly Crop Report June 2, 2023 – Almost all crops are doing well

June 2, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the May 31, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the May 21 – 28  period of time. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays but due to the Memorial Day Weekend it was not published until Wednesday and Wednesday night I published the end-of-month update of the June weather outlook (click HERE to read) so I am publishing the crop article tonight a day late.

Almost all crops are doing well. Corn and soybeans, which are two of the major crops,  are doing very well. We will see how they handle the drought anticipated in certain areas in June.

We also include the May 2023 report on the prices received and paid by farmers in April 2023.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 2, 2023

June 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 8:02 p.m. Thursday, June 2, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 PM EDT Fri Jun 02 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jun 03 2023 – 00Z Mon Jun 05 2023

…Tropical Storm Arlene Forms in the Gulf of Mexico…

…There are Moderate Risks of Excessive Rainfall over the Texas Panhandle
& northern High Plains; Enhanced Risk for severe weather in the southern
High Plains this afternoon…

…Stormy weather to linger in the Rockies & Plains…

…Prolonged summer heat in the North Central U.S; cooler temperatures
return to the Northeast & Mid-Atlantic this weekend.

01 June 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Opened Sharply Down, But Trended Higher To Finally Close, With The S&P 500 And Nasdaq Higher In The Green

June 1, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 154 points or 0.47%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.28%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.99%,
  • Gold $1,996 up $13.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $1.96,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.605% down 0.032 points,
  • USD Index $103.55 down $0.78,
  • Bitcoin $26,864 down $209,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

ADP National Employment Report from the ADP Research Institute shows private employers created 278,000 jobs in May 2023 and annual pay was up 6.5 percent year-over-year. Job growth is strong while pay growth continues to slow. But gains in private employment were fragmented last month, with leisure and hospitality, natural resources, and construction taking the lead whilst manufacturing and finance lost jobs. Strong employment gains will allow the Federal Reserve to continue to raise interest rates. Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist stated:

This is the second month we’ve seen a full percentage point decline in pay growth for job changers. Pay growth is slowing substantially, and wage-driven inflation may be less of a concern for the economy despite robust hiring.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 44% (seasonally adjusted) of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down one point from April but still 20 points higher than the 49-year average reading. The percentage of owners reporting labor quality as their top small business operating problem remains elevated at 24% and 10% of owners reported labor costs as their single most important problem. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

The labor force participation rate remains below pre-COVID levels, which is contributing to the shortage of workers available to fill open positions. Small businesses have a record high level of job openings currently and are working hard to fill their open positions.

Construction spending during April 2023 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of  7.2% above April 2022. However, when the spending is adjusted for inflation – spending declined 3.4% year-over-year. This is a sign of a weak economy.

In the week ending May 27, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 229,500, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 231,750 to 232,000.

Nonfarm business sector labor productivity decreased by 0.8% from the first quarter one year ago whilst labor costs increased by 3.8% in the same period. Whenever labor costs rise faster than productivity – it is not only inflationary but makes the country less competitive.

The seasonally adjusted S&P Global US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) posted 48.4 in May, down from 50.2 in April, but broadly in line with the earlier released ‘flash’ estimate of 48.5. The latest figure indicated the fastest deterioration in operating conditions since February. Contributing to the latest overall decline was a renewed and solid fall in new orders at manufacturing firms in May. The decrease was the sharpest in three months. Lower new sales were often attributed to sufficient inventory levels at customers and previous hikes in selling prices which served to dampen demand conditions. F

The May Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.9%, 0.2 percentage point lower than the 47.1 percent recorded in April. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a sixth month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion.

U.S.-based employers announced 80,089 job cuts in May, a 20% increase from the 66,995 cuts announced one month prior. It is 287% higher than the 20,712 cuts announced in the same month in 2022. So far this year, companies have announced plans to cut 417,500 jobs, a 315% increase from the 100,694 cuts announced in the same period last year. It is the highest January-May total since 2020.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • The Grid Needs A $20 Trillion Upgrade To Support Energy Transition
  • Copper Prices Trounced By Falling Demand
  • WTI Screams Back Up Past $70 Despite Crude Inventory Builds
  • Natural Gas Prices Plunge Further Amid Rise In U.S. Stockpiles
  • Why Apple’s VR headset could succeed where every similar product has failed
  • Defense spending levels threaten to delay Senate plan to fast-track debt ceiling bill
  • Stocks jump Thursday, Nasdaq pops 1% as traders cheer advancement of debt ceiling bill: Live updates
  • Bitcoin suffers worst month of 2023, Circle cuts U.S. bonds on debt ceiling doubt: CNBC Crypto World
  • Wage hikes may have been a key driver of inflation. They may now be fueling mass layoffs
  • Planned Layoffs Are Up Fourfold So Far This Year
  • Dell stock jumps after early earnings release shows largest sales decline on record, but still beats expectations

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates It’s June 2023 Outlook on May 31, 2023- It is a dramatic change from the Mid-Month Outlook

June 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is June of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for June and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important statements within the NOAA Discussion. We also provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for June for comparison.  From the NOAA Discussion:

  • The MJO is expected to provide a favorable large-scale environment for tropical cyclone (TC) development across the East Pacific during early June.
  • Typhoon Maway , currently located to the east of Taiwan, is forecast to recurve northeastward over the Northwest Pacific.
  • Dynamical models  generally depict a persistent, anomalous 500-hPa ridge over the higher latitudes of west-central North America into the latter half of June which supports increased probabilities for above-normal temperatures from the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies east to the Midwest.
  • 30-day precipitation deficits range from 2 to 5 inches across the Corn Belt where low topsoil [Editor’s note: probably referring to moisture]  is present.
  • Positive SST anomalies over the Gulf of Mexico along with forecasted above normal temperatures in week 3-4 tools, tilts the forecast toward above normal across Florida and along the Gulf Coast.
  • Increased probabilities for below-normal temperatures are forecast for the Central to Southern High Plains, Southwest, and southern California.
  • Below-normal precipitation across the Midwest. This favored dryness extends east to the Central Appalachians
  • Wetter-than-normal conditions especially across the interior West, High Plains, and Southern Great Plains where increased probabilities for above-normal precipitation are forecast for the month
  • A wet start to the month is likely across the Florida Peninsula.
  • The largest change in the revised precipitation outlook was made to Alaska as most recent model guidance has backed off the dry signal initially forecast for southeastern Alaska.

It is probably easier to just look at the maps than digest the above.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for June. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the June Outlook. We have also included the current fire incidents (dramatically decreased) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showing the current snowpack in the West and the water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 1, 2023

June 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Thu Jun 01 2023

Valid 00Z Fri Jun 02 2023 – 00Z Sun Jun 04 2023

…Heavy rain to likely lead to additional instances of flash flooding
across the Texas Panhandle on Friday, as well as the possibility of severe
thunderstorms…

…Increasing threat of excessive rainfall across parts of north-central
Montana to end the week…

…Much above average temperatures throughout the Northeast on Friday
ahead of an approaching backdoor cold front to swing through the region by
Saturday…

31 May 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Three Major Indexes Close Moderately Down In The Red As The Month Of May Goes Away

May 31, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 135 points or 0.41%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.63%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.61%,
  • Gold $1,982 up $5.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $68 down $1.58,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.631% down 0.065 points,
  • USD Index $104.22 up $0.05,
  • Bitcoin $27,015 down $840,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for June 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The number of job openings edged up to 10.1 million on the last business day of April 2023. Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 6.1 million. Total separations decreased to 5.7 million. The trend lines for jobs growth are declining after peaking in March 2022.

The Summary of Commentary on Current Economic Conditions (known as the Beige Book) shows economic activity was little changed overall in April and early May. It was summarized as follows:

Four Districts reported small increases in activity, six no change, and two slight to moderate declines. Expectations for future growth deteriorated a little, though contacts still largely expected a further expansion in activity. Consumer expenditures were steady or higher in most Districts, with many noting growth in spending on leisure and hospitality. Education and healthcare organizations saw steady activity on balance. Manufacturing activity was flat to up in most Districts, and supply chain issues continued to improve. Demand for transportation services was down, especially in trucking, where contacts reported there was a “freight recession.” Residential real estate activity picked up in most Districts despite continued low inventories of homes for sale. Commercial construction and real estate activity decreased overall, with the office segment continuing to be a weak spot. Outlooks for farm income fell in most districts, and energy activity was flat to down amidst lower natural gas prices. Financial conditions were stable or somewhat tighter in most Districts. Contacts in several Districts noted a rise in consumer loan delinquencies, which were returning closer to pre-pandemic levels. High inflation and the end of Covid-19 benefits continued to stress the budgets of low- and moderate-income households, driving increased demand for social services, including food and housing.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Argentina’s Vaca Muerta Shale Play Could Produce 1 Million Bpd In 2030
  • Colombia’s President May Have To Rethink His Oil And Gas Exploration Ban
  • American Offshore Wind Gets Gulf Of Mexico Green Light
  • Reuters Survey: OPEC Output Down 460,00 BPD This Month
  • Goldman And Others See Rising Odds Of Another OPEC+ Output Cut
  • Gasoline Prices Tick Up For The Summer
  • Singapore Detains Record Number Of Oil Tankers As Shadow Fleet Expands
  • Stocks slip as investors look to House vote on the debt ceiling, Nasdaq pops nearly 6% in May: Live updates
  • Debt ceiling bill poised to pass the House as Senate aims for a Friday vote

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted May 31, 2023

May 31, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed May 31 2023

Valid 12Z Wed May 31 2023 – 12Z Fri Jun 02 2023

…Widespread scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across large
portions of the central U.S., the northern Rockies and northern Great
Basin…

…Watching the potential for low pressure to develop in the eastern Gulf
and bring increasing chance of thunderstorms across southern Florida next
few days…

…Much above average temperatures along the northern tier of the nation
but cooler than normal across the southern tier and along the West and
East Coasts…