Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted December 1, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Dec 01 2024
Valid 12Z Sun Dec 01 2024 – 12Z Tue Dec 03 2024

…Heavy lake-effect snow starts to wind down over the Upper Great Lakes
later on Sunday…

…Heavy lake-effect snow continues downwind from Lake Erie through
Tuesday…

…Light to moderate snow over parts of the Northern Plains and
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley and Central Appalachians on Sunday; on
Monday, light to moderate snow over parts of the Southern Ohio Valley…

…Temperatures will be 10 to 15 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Plains to the Ohio Valley and the eastern third of the country...

High pressure over Central Canada will settle southeastward to the Middle
Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. The high pressure will also usher cold air
over parts of the Northern Plains to the Ohio Valley and across the
eastern third of the country, bringing temperatures of 10 to 15 degrees
below average. Freeze Warning will be over the Central/Eastern Gulf Coast
States.

The upper-level troughing over the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes into
the Northeast will weaken Monday into Tuesday. The cold air streaming over
the Great Lakes will produce heavy lake-effect snow over the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan through Monday morning. Lighter snowfall will
develop over most of the west coast of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
However, heavy lake-effect snow will develop over the parts of the
northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan near the Traverse City to Gaylord
regions and will start to taper off on Monday into Tuesday. Moreover,
heavy lake-effect snow will continue downwind from Lakes Erie through
Tuesday. The heavy lake-effect snow will continue downwind of Lakes
Ontario on Sunday and taper off on Monday into Tuesday.

Moreover, upper-level energy will produce light to moderate snow over
parts of the Northern Plains and Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley on
Sunday. Furthermore, a wave of low pressure will create light to moderate
snow over parts of the Central Appalachians on Sunday. On Monday, a second
wave of low pressure will create light snow over parts of the Southern
Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A third wave of low pressure over
West-Central Canada will initiate light snow over parts of the Upper
Midwest by Tuesday morning.

Meanwhile, weak return flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create light rain
over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Sunday and scattered showers and
thunderstorms on Monday. Elsewhere, upper-level ridging over parts of the
West Coast will create stagnant air conditions over the valley locations
from interior California into the Pacific Northwest, leading to areas of
dense fog and poor air quality.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

The EIA Monthly Energy Review – Published November 30, 2024

The EIA Monthly  Energy Review is long and does not change much from month to month since a lot of the information is historical.  Some running for political office might have benefited by studying the data. Here I present the graphics from just the first three chapters. It is enough to see that coal is being phased out, electricity is increasingly important and our incorporation of alternative sources of energy is slow.  I  may provide more information in a future article but this should be enough for people to decide if they want more detail on the rest of the report.

At the end of the article, I provided a link to the full Monthly Review. The EIA Monthly Energy Review is separate from its annual reporting on crude oil and natural gas reserves. My prior article on their estimates of reserves can be accessed HERE.  I think that reserves are only updated once a year.

 The numbers here might look funny until you realize that in their summary they are only reporting on petroleum consumption. I have no idea why they did this.

This is a good graphic as it shows the source of energy and where it is used and what the losses are in the transmission of electricity. It is showing the situation for the full year of 2023. Notice that in this graphic Transportation and Industrial are about equal in terms of usage.

The main takeaway here is the small role of renewables.  Also, the increasing role of natural gas is important.

This is from the 2023 EIA Annual Energy Outlook. I did not have enough time to really review this but it seems inconsistent with the data in the Monthly Report.  It is important to remember that the information in the November Monthly Report may only be current as of August as it takes the EIA a lot of time to collect and validate information. That information indicated that transportation far exceeded the industrial sector and the commercial sector used very little energy. So I will try to sort that out. For sure there is a seasonal impact with respect to transportation. It is always difficult for me to work with EIA data.

Some will need to click on “Read More”  to access the rest of this article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 30, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 30 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 30 2024 – 12Z Mon Dec 02 2024

…Heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes through Monday…

…Light to moderate snow from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the
Central Appalachians on Saturday…

…Light to moderate snow over parts of the Northern Plains/Upper
Mississippi Valley and Central Appalachians on Sunday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Plains and temperatures will be about 10 degrees below average
over parts of the eastern third of the country…

High pressure extending from Central Canada to the Tennessee Valley will
usher cold air over parts of the Northern Plains, bringing temperatures of
10 to 20 degrees below average. The cold air prompted Cold Weather
Advisories to be over parts of North Dakota on Saturday morning. The
Central Canada high will move south into the Northern Plains by Monday. As
the high pressure expands eastward, cold air will move over most of the
eastern third of the country, with temperatures about 10 degrees below
average. Freeze Warning will also be over the Central Gulf Coast States to
the Southeast.

In addition, upper-level troughing over the Upper Midwest/Upper Great
Lakes into the Northeast and cold air streaming over the Great Lakes will
produce heavy lake-effect snow over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
through Monday. Lighter snowfall will develop over most of the west coast
of the Lower Peninsula of Michigan during the time period. However, heavy
lake-effect snow will develop over the parts of the northern Lower
Peninsula of Michigan near the Traverse City to Gaylord regions. Moreover,
heavy lake-effect snow will develop downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario
through Monday.

Moreover, a quasi-stationary front extending from the Middle Mississippi
Valley to the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains will remain through
Monday. Furthermore, a wave of low pressure will develop on the boundary
over parts of the Central Plains and move eastward to the Central
Appalachians by Sunday morning. The system will produce light to moderate
snow over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley eastward to the Central
Appalachians on Saturday into Sunday morning. The light to moderate snow
will continue over the Central Appalachians on Sunday. Additionally, light
snow will develop over parts of the Northern Plains on Saturday. The light
snow will continue on Sunday and expand into parts of the Upper/Middle
Mississippi Valley.

Meanwhile, weak return flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create light rain
over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Saturday into Monday morning.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

29Nov2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Stocks End Month In Record Territory

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 189 points or 0.42%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 158 points or 0.83%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 34 points or 0.56%,
  • Gold $2,676 up $11.40 or 0.44%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.19 or 0.29%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.172 down 0.070 points or 1.556%,
  • USD index $105.81 down $0.33 or 0.31%,
  • Bitcoin $97,072 up $1,436 or 1.5%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks reached record highs on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 both achieving new peaks during a holiday-shortened trading session. The Nasdaq Composite also saw a significant increase marking a strong finish to a successful month for all major indices, which experienced their best post-Thanksgiving Friday since 2012. The gains on Friday capped off a month where the S&P 500, Dow, and small-cap Russell 2000 all recorded their best monthly performance in a year. Notably, the S&P 500’s overall gain through November represented its best year-to-date performance since 2013, with an increase of over 25% so far this year. Investor sentiment remained buoyed despite concerns regarding potential inflation impacts from the president-elect’s proposed tariffs on key trading partners, including Mexico, Canada, and China. Optimism grew when Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum indicated that a tariff war might be avoided following discussions with Trump. Additionally, speculation about a slower pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts did not dampen enthusiasm as investors looked forward to what has been one of the strongest years for the stock market in recent history. If the S&P 500 achieves another annual gain of over 20%, it would mark the first consecutive years of such growth since 1998-1999.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Brazil Opens Doors to New Oil Exploration with 91 Blocks on Offer
  • Ceasefire With Hezbollah Shifts Israel’s Focus to Iran
  • The Secretive Oil Shipping Hub Funneling Iranian Crude to China
  • Uganda to Fund $4-Billion Oil Refinery after Ditching Efforts to Tap Markets
  • Iran Could Go Nuclear if Sanctions Are Reimposed
  • Ukraine Claims Hit on Oil Depot in Russia
  • Analysts Cut 2025 Oil Price Forecasts Again
  • Russia’s Gas Supply to Europe Remains Stable Before Ukraine Transit Deal Ends
  • Trudeau Government Frets Over Trump Oil Tariffs
  • Bitcoin heads for nearly 40% November gain as it edges closer to $100,000
  • Trump voters could fuel holiday spending, while Harris supporters may pull back
  • Putin Says Trump ‘Not Safe’ After Assassination Attempts, Slams Mudslinging Against His Family
  • “This Week, The Second Trump Trade War Started”
  • Smith & Wesson Deplatformed From Facebook As Musk Welcomes Gun Industry To X

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

December 2024 Economic Forecast: Insignificant Improvement And Still Indicating a Weak Economy

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved and insignificantly returned to positive territory. Our index shows a weak economy where any old monkey wrench will plunge the economy into recession. Inflation remains unchanged compared to last three months – a strange situation after the Federal Reserve declared progress on curtailing inflation. We do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 29, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 29 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 29 2024 – 12Z Sun Dec 01 2024

…Heavy lake-effect snow downwind from the Great Lakes through Sunday…

…Light snow over parts of the Central Appalachians on Friday and light
to moderate snow from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the Central
Appalachians on Saturday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees below average over parts of the
Northern Plains…

A slow-moving front across Florida will aid in creating showers and
thunderstorms over parts of the Central Gulf Coast to Florida on Friday.
After the boundary moves south of Florida, scattered light rain will
develop along the east coast of the Florida peninsula on Saturday. An area
of high pressure over Central Canada will usher cold air over parts of the
Northern Plains, bringing temperatures of 10 to 25 degrees below average.
The cold air has prompted Cold Weather Advisories over parts of North
Dakota on Friday morning.

In addition, upper-level troughing over the Great Lakes into the Northeast
and cold air streaming over the Great Lakes will produce heavy lake-effect
snow over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan through Sunday. Lighter snowfall
will develop over most of the west coast of the Lower Peninsula of
Michigan during the time period. However, heavy lake-effect snow will
develop over the parts of the northern Lower Peninsula of Michigan.
Moreover, heavy lake-effect snow will develop downwind of Lakes Erie and
Ontario through Sunday.

A quasi-stationary front extending from the Middle Mississippi Valley to
the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains will be the focus for light snow
over parts of the Northern High Plains on Friday and over parts of the
Northern Plains on Saturday.

Furthermore, a wave of low pressure will develop on the boundary over
parts of the Central Plains and move eastward to the Central Appalachians
by Sunday. The system will produce light to moderate snow over parts of
the Middle Mississippi Valley eastward to the Central Appalachians on
Saturday into Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, weak return flow off the Gulf of Mexico will create light rain
over parts of the Western Gulf Coast on Saturday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 28, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1105 PM EST Wed Nov 27 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 28 2024 – 12Z Sat Nov 30 2024

…Thanksgiving Day storm to push into the Northeast today spreading
rainfall and New England snowfall in its vicinity…

…Increasingly below average temperatures spill out into the Great Plains
and Mississippi Valley through the end of the week…

…Lake Effect snows continue and will expand and intensify with time…

A dynamic mid-latitude cyclone tracks near the New England coast today.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms spread into the East Coast today. A
swath of moderate to heavy snowfall is likely to develop across portions
of the interior Northeast — winter storm watches and warnings are in
effect for portions of central New England related to the heavy snow
threat.

Elsewhere, Lake Effect snow showers across the Upper Great Lakes may yield
anywhere from 4-8 inches over the northern coastline of the Upper
Peninsula of Michigan as well as northern parts of the Lower Peninsula
today. A disturbance aloft will allow for the development of a new cold
front late today which moves east and south ahead of a strong and cold
surface high. In the wake of this front, as temperatures cool further,
lake effect snows should expand and intensify as they interact with record
warm Great Lakes temperatures for late November. Several additional inches
of snow are forecast on Friday bringing 2 day snowfall totals over a foot
with isolated higher amounts possible across downwind areas of the Great
Lakes by Saturday morning. Florida will remain mild to warm.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

27Nov2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Decline As Data Shows Little Progress On Inflation

There will be no newsletter on Thanksgiving. EconCurrents wishes all our readers and their families a Happy Thanksgiving.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 138 points or 0.31%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 115 points or 0.60%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 23 points or 0.38%,
  • Gold $2,636 up $15.60 or 0.60%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $69 down $0.01 or 0.01%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.250 down 0.052 points or 1.209%,
  • USD index $106.06 down $0.95 or 0.89%,
  • Bitcoin $96,629 up $4,685 or 5.1%, (24 Hours)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The U.S. stock market experienced a bad day on Wednesday as investors analyzed new inflation data. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge showed minimal progress towards the 2% target in October. Traders now estimate a 34% chance the Fed will maintain current interest rates, up from 24% a month earlier. The third-quarter GDP remained unchanged. Dell shares plummeted over 12% due to declining PC demand. HP stock also dropped more than 11% following its earnings report. The market mood was subdued ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday, with markets set to close on Thursday and have shortened hours on Friday.


Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year


Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in October 2024 were up 2.7% year-over-year (increased from -1.7% year-over-year last month). This was a healthy increase which suggests consumers returned to the spending trough in October.

Real (inflation adjusted) personal income improved from 2.6% year-over-year last month to 2.7% in October 2024. Real personal consumption expenditures declined from 3.1% last month to 3.0% in October. Inflation worsened with the PCE price index worsened from 2.1% last month to 2.3% in October and this same price index excluding food and energy worsened from 2.7% last month to 2.8% in October. As predicted, inflation worsened and I see inflation worsening for at least the next 6 months. This is the inflation index the Federal Reserve prefers to gauge inflation.

The second estimate of Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2024. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent. This was unchanged from the advance estimate. The inflation measure in GDP (implicit price deflator) improved from 2.6% in 2Q2024 to 2.2% in 3Q2024. Not much I can add but in the new normal, growth over 2% year-over-year is good.

Pending home sales (homes under a sales contract) increased 5.4% year-over-year in October 2024 according to NAR. The NAR can be likened to the fox watching the chicken coop. In the graph below shows data provided by realtor.com – a licensee of the NAR owned by News Corp which shows year-over-year gains of 9.9% in pending home sales. In any event, pending home sales is trending up. Chief Economist Lawrence Yun adds:

Homebuying momentum is building after nearly two years of suppressed home sales. Even with mortgage rates modestly rising despite the Federal Reserve’s decision to cut the short-term interbank lending rate in September, continuous job additions and more housing inventory are bringing more consumers to the market.

In the week ending November 23, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 217,000, a decrease of 1,250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 217,750 to 218,250. This data is consistent with a strong economy.

The Chicago Business Barometer eased 1.4 points to 40.2 in November 2024.  This was the second consecutive monthly fall from 46.6 in September, leaving the index 2.7 points below the year-to-date average. The decline was due to four of the five subcomponents falling (Production, New Orders, Order Backlogs and Employment), with only Supplier Deliveries rising in October. The Chicago PMI is believed to be a window into the PMI manufacturing index which will be released next week. Manufacturing is in a recession in the US.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Electric Capital Spending Has Skyrocketed, and It’s Only the Start
  • Reuters: Exxon Lobbyist Investigated Over Leak Of Environmentalist Emails
  • Lebanon Cease-Fire Deal Is a Major Victory For Israel
  • China’s Industrial Sector Posts Large Profit Decline In October
  • UAE’s Oil Giant Launches $80-Billion Chemicals and Green Energy Firm
  • Russia’s Fuel Exports Jump to 8-Month High
  • Russia’s Shadow Fleet Has Moved Its Oil Smuggling Operations to New Waters
  • Goldman Sachs: OPEC+ Cuts Provide Near-Term Upside to Oil Prices
  • Homebuyer demand for mortgages jumps 12% after first interest rate drop in over 2 months
  • U.S. Court Could Reopen Bidding for Oil Refiner Citgo After Failed Deal
  • ‘Europe’s Detroit’ built a thriving car industry. Trump tariffs now threaten to unravel its success
  • Is Reviving Keystone XL More Than Just A Pipe Dream?
  • Russia Reveals 2 Dead, Radar Site Damaged, After US-Supplied Missiles Struck Kursk

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 27, 2024

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 27 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 27 2024 – 12Z Fri Nov 29 2024

…Pre Thanksgiving to Thanksgiving Day storm to push from the Mid
Mississippi/Ohio Valley today into the Northeast on Thursday…

…Dry conditions on tap for the West Coast after several days of wet
weather…

…Much above average temperatures from the Southern Plains into the Gulf
Coast today, while much below average temperatures spill out into the
Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through the end of the week…

A low pressure system responsible for heavy snowfall over the Colorado
Rockies (ending this morning) will intensify into a dynamic mid-latitude
cyclone, tracking through the Midwest and into the Northeast Coast through
Thanksgiving day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop across
the Mid/Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio/Tennessee Valleys this afternoon
before spreading into the East Coast tonight and progressively shifting
eastward through Thanksgiving day. A swath of light to moderate snowfall
is likely to develop across portions of the interior Northeast, with the
Northern Appalachians forecast to receive 4-8 inches of snow by Friday
morning.

Elsewhere, snow showers across the Upper Great Lakes may yield anywhere
from 4-8 inches over the northern coastline of the Upper Peninsula of
Michigan as well as northern parts of the Lower Peninsula. A dry spell
ensues across the West as an upper ridge slowly settles over the region.
Shortwave energy will phase with a northern stream trough and amplify
across the eastern half of the country in the coming days. This
development will allow for a cool continental airmass to spill out across
the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley through Thanksgiving day before a
reinforcing arctic airmass plunges temperatures even more through this
holiday weekend. Prior to that, today will be the last day of much above
average temperatures throughout the South. Much of Texas will experience
high temperatures between 15-25 degrees above average.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.