EconCurrents

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 27, 2024

By Sig Silber September 27, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Sep 27 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Sep 27 2024 - 12Z Sun Sep 29 2024

...HELENE is forecast to continue to move inland to the northwestward to
the Ohio Valley by Saturday while slowly weakening...

...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Appalachians on Friday and a Slight Risk over parts of the Ohio Valley on
Saturday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday...

...There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California
and the Southwest...

HELENE is forecast to move inland, heading northwestward to the Ohio
Valley, and slowly weaken by Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms with
heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southern Appalachians and
southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a High Risk (level
4/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern Appalachians through Saturday
morning.  Severe, widespread flash flooding is expected. In addition,
areas that normally do not experience flash flooding will flood. Lives and
property are in great danger.

Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the
southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
(level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the southern Mid-Atlantic through
Saturday morning.  The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of severe
thunderstorm wind gusts and hail. Also, rain will develop over parts of
the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Friday.

On Saturday, the excessive rainfall threat from HELENE lessens. However,
heavy rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC
has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of
the Ohio Valley from Saturday through Sunday morning. The associated heavy
rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban
areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.

Further, the threat of severe thunderstorms ends on Saturday. Yet showers
and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida Peninsula. Additionally,
rain will continue over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and parts of the
Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning.

Meanwhile, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest and inland
to the Northern Plains. The system will produce rain over parts of the
Northwest ending by late Friday afternoon.

In addition, an upper-level high will remain over the Southwest through
Sunday. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to 110s, and low
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will provide little relief from the
heat overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings
over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest.

alid 12Z Fri Sep 27 2024 - 12Z Sun Sep 29 2024 ...HELENE is forecast to continue to move inland to the northwestward to the Ohio Valley by Saturday while slowly weakening... ...There is a High Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern Appalachians on Friday and a Slight Risk over parts of the Ohio Valley on Saturday... ...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic on Friday... �There are Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest� HELENE is forecast to move inland, heading northwestward to the Ohio Valley, and slowly weaken by Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain will develop over parts of the Southern Appalachians and southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the WPC has issued a High Risk (level 4/4) of excessive rainfall over the Southern Appalachians through Saturday morning. Severe, widespread flash flooding is expected. In addition, areas that normally do not experience flash flooding will flood. Lives and property are in great danger. Moreover, showers and severe thunderstorms will develop over parts of the southern Mid-Atlantic. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of severe thunderstorms over the southern Mid-Atlantic through Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of severe thunderstorm wind gusts and hail. Also, rain will develop over parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys on Friday. On Saturday, the excessive rainfall threat from HELENE lessens. However, heavy rain will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Ohio Valley from Saturday through Sunday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable. Further, the threat of severe thunderstorms ends on Saturday. Yet showers and thunderstorms will develop over the Florida Peninsula. Additionally, rain will continue over the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and parts of the Mid-Atlantic through Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest and inland to the Northern Plains. The system will produce rain over parts of the Northwest ending by late Friday afternoon. In addition, an upper-level high will remain over the Southwest through Sunday. High temperatures will range from the upper 90s to 110s, and low temperatures in the mid to upper 80s will provide little relief from the heat overnight. The temperatures have prompted Excessive Heat Warnings over parts of Southeastern California and the Southwest.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

26 SEPT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The S&P 500 Set A New Historic High After The Opening Bell Rang, Then Briefly Trended Down Below The Unchanged Line, Finally The Big Three Closed Moderately Higher

By Gary Hall September 26, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed up 260 points or 0.62%,
Nasdaq closed up 0.60%,
S&P 500 closed up 0.40%, (Closed at 5,745, New Historic high 5,767)
Gold $2,696 up $11.30,
WTI crude oil settled at $67 down $2.39,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.794 up 0.013 points,
USD index $100.55 down $0.36,
Bitcoin $64,793 up $1,687 or 2.67%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks rallied on Thursday, with the S&P 500 closing at a new record high. The positive momentum was driven by several key factors: The final US GDP growth report for Q2 exceeded expectations, while weekly jobless claims fell to their lowest level in four months. Micron Technology (MU) reported upbeat earnings, boosting the semiconductor sector: Micron stock: +15% PHLX Semiconductor Index (^SOX): +3.7%. Other chip stocks also gained: AMD +3.4%, Qualcomm +2.4%, Intel +1.3%. Chinese leaders announced plans to increase fiscal spending, address the property crisis, and support the stock market. This led to a significant jump in mainland Chinese stocks, with the CSI 300 (000300.SS) on track for its best week in a decade. Super Micro Computer (SMCI). The stock fell 12% following a Wall Street Journal report about a Department of Justice probe into the company, stemming from a recent Hindenburg Research short seller report. Despite the overall chip sector rally, Nvidia shares rose only 0.16%. However, this slight increase was enough to push the company back into the $3 trillion market cap club. Investors are now looking ahead to Friday’s release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in August 2024 are up 1.5% year-over-year (down 1.1% inflation adjusted) – and little changed from the previous month. Durable goods remains a drag on the economy.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) third estimate increased at an annual rate of 3.0% in the second quarter of 2024 unchanged from the second estimate. The implicit price index (inflation) was unchanged at 2.5% year-over-year (2.8% excluding food and energy). My projection is that GDP in 3Q2024 should be little changed from these numbers.

The median number of years that wage and salary workers had been with their current employer was 3.9 years in January 2024, down from 4.1 years in January 2022 and the lowest since January 2002. These are interesting numbers but have little impact on the economy.

Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity declined moderately in September 2024. The month-over-month composite index was -8 in September, down from -3 in August and up from -13 in July. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the US.

Pending home sales in August 2024 were down 3.0% year-over-year. I know everyone is thinking the federal funds rate will make houses more affordable – but house price appreciation will offset these gains. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

A slight upward turn reflects a modest improvement in housing affordability, primarily because mortgage rates descended to 6.5% in August. However, contract signings remain near cyclical lows even as home prices keep marching to new record highs.

In the week ending September 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 224,750, a decrease of 3,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 750 from 227,500 to 228,250. There is no indication of a recession or slowing economy in these numbers.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Ranking the World’s Financial Centers
Russia Lowers Nuclear Threshold, Citing Western Threats
Oil Plunges Over 2% on Rumor Saudis Ready To Increase Output
Russia Could Scrap Gasoline Export Ban if Domestic Surplus Emerges
The Fed slashed interest rates last week, but Treasury yields are rising. What’s going on?
Dow jumps more than 250 points, S&P 500 closes higher to post fresh record: Live updates
David Tepper says the Fed has to cut rates at least two or three more times to keep credibility
Misinformation running rampant on Facebook has officials concerned about election disruptions
Hurricane Helene is upgraded to a Category 3 as it barrels toward Florida
Yield on 2-year Treasury logs biggest jump in five weeks after strong U.S. GDP report
A port strike would be ill-timed, but disruption could boost these companies

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

World Agriculture Production, Supply, and Demand as provided by USDA in their September Report which I am publishing on September 26, 2024

By Sig Silber September 26, 2024agricultureNo Comments

We start with the Supply and Demand Estimates which is an all-text discussion.

Then we look at World Agriculture Production and here there are many interesting maps and graphs. Production is part of Supply but Supply also includes the starting inventory and the ending inventory among other adjustments. So the two reports go together and I am presenting them that way.

There is so much here that I did not think that me adding comments would be helpful so I have refrained from doing that.

Some will need to click on “Read More to read the full article.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 26, 2024

By Sig Silber September 26, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Sep 26 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Sep 26 2024 – 12Z Sat Sep 28 2024

…Helene is forecast to rapidly intensify to a major hurricane in the
Gulf today and bring life-threatening impacts to Florida and the Southeast
through Friday…

…Rare High Risks of excessive rainfall are in place for parts of the
Florida Panhandle where Helene will make landfall, and for the southern
Appalachians where catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are
expected...

…Above average temperatures and summer-like warmth forecast to stretch
from the Southwest to northern Plains…

Hurricane Helene is moving northward through the Gulf of Mexico this
morning and is forecast to become a major hurricane before making
landfall. Potentially catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected
within the eyewall of Helene when it makes landfall in the Florida Big
Bend region this evening. Because Helene is becoming a large system and
will initially move inland quickly, damaging and life-threatening
hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will penetrate well inland
over portions of northern Florida and southern Georgia late Thursday and
Thursday night where Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Strong wind gusts
are also likely farther north across portions of northern Georgia and the
Carolinas, particularly over the higher terrain of the southern
Appalachians. Additionally, catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely
along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach
as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves. There
is also a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the remainder of
the west coast of the Florida Peninsula. Prepare now and heed instructions
from local officials about evacuations in these areas. Please refer to the
National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on the track and timing
of Helene.

Helene will also cause significant rainfall and flooding threats. Even
ahead of Helene itself, tropical moisture continues to be pulled north
into the Southeast to southern Appalachians ahead of a slow-moving upper
trough/low and surface front, currently causing rainfall and flooding that
will last through the day. Heavy to extreme rainfall from yesterday has
also led to wet antecedent conditions in places where Helene will track. A
rare High Risk (level 4/4) remains in place in WPC’s Excessive Rainfall
Outlook (ERO) across portions of Georgia into the southern Appalachians
where upslope flow should increase rain totals and varying terrain is
likely to lead to landslides. Additionally, a separate area of extreme
rainfall is also likely near the core of the storm as it passes over the
Florida Panhandle, where a separate High Risk is in effect in the Day 1
ERO. A broad Slight Risk (level 2/4) with an embedded Moderate Risk (level
3/4) over the Appalachians is in place for Friday for continued rainfall.
Overall, Helene is forecast to produce total rain accumulations of 6 to 12
inches, with isolated totals around 20 inches, over portions of the
Southeast into southern Appalachians. Catastrophic and life-threatening
flash and urban flooding, including numerous significant landslides, is
expected across portions of the southern Appalachians through Friday.
Considerable to locally catastrophic flash and urban flooding is likely
for northwestern and northern Florida and the Southeast through Friday.
Widespread significant river flooding and isolated major river flooding
are likely. Another weather hazard associated with Helene to monitor is
the tornado threat, especially on the eastern side of the track. The Storm
Prediction Center is indicating a Slight to Enhanced Risk of severe
weather, primarily for tornadoes, today into tonight for parts of Florida
into Georgia and South Carolina/southeastern North Carolina.

Elsewhere, showers and storms are also possible farther north in the
eastern U.S. along the northern part of the frontal system over the next
couple of days. A couple of fronts passing through the Northwest should
lead to some precipitation there and gusty winds. Meanwhile the rest of
the western U.S. stretching into the north-central U.S. can expect dry
conditions with warmer than average temperatures. The Desert Southwest
will see highs well into the 100s and low 110s, which has prompted
Excessive Heat Warnings from south-central Arizona into the high deserts
of southern California. High into the 90s are likely in the northern High
Plains today, with 80s stretching into the Upper Midwest through the end
of the week. Record warm temperatures are possible for both morning lows
and afternoon highs.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

25 SEPT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: It Was All Downhill After The Dow And The S&P 500 Set New Historic Highs After The Opening Before Closing Moderately Lower

By Gary Hall September 25, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed down 293 points or 0.70%, (Closed at 41,915, New Historic high 42,300)
Nasdaq closed up 0.04%,
S&P 500 closed down 0.19%, (Closed at 5,722, New Historic high 5,741)
Gold $2,684 up $6.90,
WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $1.81,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.789 up 0.053 points,
USD index $100.98 up $0.51,
Bitcoin $63,274 down $1,030 or 1.60%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The stock market rally lost steam, with major indexes closing mixed after retreating from all-time highs reached yesterday. Investors are debating the health of the economy and the chances of another large interest rate cut following the Fed’s surprise 0.5% cut. Economic data was mixed – new home sales declined in August, but mortgage applications jumped to the highest level since 2022 as rates dropped. The focus is now on upcoming GDP data and the PCE inflation index report later this week.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Human Resources Trends & Issues Survey conducted online among 182 HR executives and business leaders nationwide by global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger Gray & Christmas, Inc. found:

Cost-Cutting Measures: Companies are actively pursuing cost reductions as they approach the end of the year, focusing on travel, bonuses, salaries, and technology solutions. A survey found that 9% of organizations are using return-to-office policies as part of their cost-cutting strategies, reflecting a shift from traditional methods like layoffs
AI in the Workplace: There is a growing disconnect between employee usage of AI tools (37% of employees) and corporate policies, with only 12% of companies having formal AI training or strategies. This gap raises concerns about data security and ethical implications as employees navigate AI independently
Quiet Quitting Concerns: The phenomenon of “quiet quitting,” where employees disengage without resigning, is a significant worry for 33% of companies. However, many lack concrete evidence or tracking mechanisms to assess its impact accurately
Leadership Perception: Favorable views of leadership have slightly declined, with 54.55% of employees expressing positive opinions. There is an increase in mixed views and a notable rise in companies not tracking leadership perceptions
Employee Priorities: Flexibility remains the top priority for employees, followed by meaningful work and career advancement. While salary and empathetic leadership are still valued, their importance has decreased compared to previous surveys
Employer Offerings: Companies are adjusting their offerings in response to employee needs, with a focus on leadership development and DEI initiatives. However, financial incentives like signing bonuses have declined significantly
Remote Work Trends: The trend towards hybrid and remote work continues, with 54% of companies offering such arrangements. The model of requiring three days in the office has become more common
Hiring Challenges: Filling roles is becoming easier for some companies, though challenges remain, particularly in specialized fields like healthcare and technology. Despite improvements, 17% of companies are still in hiring freezes

Sales of new single-family houses in August 2024 were up 9.8% above the August 2023. The median sales price of new houses sold in August 2024 was $420,600. The average sales price was $492,700. The seasonally-adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of August was 467,000. This represents a supply of 7.8 months at the current sales rate. New home sales remain a bright spot in the current economy.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Wells Fargo: Oil Prices To Stay Depressed Through 2025 on Global Oversupply
Global Superpower Ranking Reveals Shifting Power Dynamics
Oil Prices Decline As Investors Weigh China Stimulus
Gold Prices Soar on Strong Demand From Hedge Funds and Central Banks
BlackRock Sees AI Driving a 50% Jump in Asian Energy Demand
Dow falls nearly 300 points to snap four-day win streak, S&P 500 retreats from record: Live updates
Mortgage refinance boom takes hold, as weekly demand surges 20%
Southwest Airlines to cut service and staffing in Atlanta to slash costs
Surging AI demand could cause the world’s next chip shortage, research says
Hidden Agendas: Beware Of The Government’s Push For A Digital Currency
A port strike could be an economic ‘tsunami’ affecting these sectors
The number of millionaire college athletes has tripled. Here are the top 10 earners this year.

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 25, 2024

By Sig Silber September 25, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Sep 25 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Sep 25 2024 – 12Z Fri Sep 27 2024

…Helene is forecast to rapidly intensify to a major hurricane in the
Gulf and bring life-threatening impacts to Florida and the Southeast late
today through Friday…

…A rare High Risk of excessive rainfall is in place for the southern
Appalachians Thursday-Thursday night where considerable flash/urban/river
flooding and landslides are possible…

Current Tropical Storm Helene is forecast to quickly become a hurricane
today and become a major hurricane before making landfall on Thursday. A
Hurricane Warning is in effect over the Florida Big Bend for damaging
hurricane-force winds. Helene will grow in size as it strengthens,
spreading its impacts to much of Florida and the Southeast. There is a
danger of life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of the
Florida Peninsula and Florida Big Bend. The highest inundation levels are
expected along the coast of the Florida Big Bend. Prepare now and heed
instructions from local officials about evacuations in these areas. Please
refer to the National Hurricane Center for the latest updates on the track
and timing of Helene.

Helene will also cause significant rainfall and flooding threats. Even
ahead of Helene itself, tropical moisture will be pulled north into the
Southeast to southern Appalachians today and tonight ahead of a
slow-moving upper trough/low. This moisture will pool along and ahead of a
stalling front at the surface and lead to excessive rainfall. A Moderate
Risk is in place in WPC’s Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) across portions
of Georgia into the southern Appalachians today into tonight within a
broader Slight Risk, in addition to Slight Risks of flash flooding in
parts of the Florida Peninsula and West Coast as Helene approaches.
Today’s rainfall is forecast to create wet antecedent conditions that
should likely overlap heavy rain along Helene’s track Thursday-Friday.
Thus a High Risk of excessive rainfall is delineated across the southern
Appalachians where upslope flow should increase rain totals and varying
terrain could lead to landslides. Overall, 5 to 10 inches of rain with
isolated totals around 15 inches is forecast over the Southeast.
Considerable flash and urban flooding is expected across portions of
Florida, the Southeast, southern Appalachians, and the Tennessee Valley
Wednesday through Friday. This includes the risk of landslides across the
southern Appalachians. Widespread minor to moderate river flooding is
likely, and isolated major river flooding is possible. Additionally, there
is a tornado threat with Helene, especially on the eastern side of the
track. The Storm Prediction center is indicating a Slight to Enhanced Risk
of severe weather, primarily for tornadoes, on Thursday into Thursday
night for parts of Florida into Georgia and South Carolina.

Elsewhere, showers and storms are also possible farther north in the
eastern U.S. along the northern part of the frontal system over the next
couple of days. A couple of fronts passing through the Northwest should
lead to some precipitation there. Meanwhile the rest of the western U.S.
stretching into the north-central U.S. can expect dry conditions with
warmer than average temperatures. The Desert Southwest will see highs well
into the 100s, and 90s are possible in the northern High Plains. Some
record temperatures are possible for lows and highs.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

24 SEPT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Higher, Took A dip Into The Red Before Trading Higher Where The Dow And The S&P 500 Set New Record Highs

By Gary Hall September 24, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed up 84 points or 0.20%, (Closed at 42,208, New Historic high 42,281)
Nasdaq closed up 0.56%,
S&P 500 closed up 0.25%, (Closed at 5,733, New Historic high 5,734)
Gold $2,687 up $34.80,
WTI crude oil settled at $72 up $1.17,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.732 down 0.006 points,
USD index $100.37 down $0.48,
Bitcoin $64,378 up $991 or 1.56%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks experienced modest gains on Tuesday, with both the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average achieving record closes. Investor sentiment was bolstered by China’s announcement of significant stimulus measures aimed at revitalizing its economy, which had a positive ripple effect on global markets. Notably, US-listed Chinese e-commerce stocks surged, with JD.com seeing a nearly 14% jump following the news. However, this optimism was tempered by a decline in US consumer confidence; the Conference Board’s index fell to 98.7 in September from 105.6 in August, missing economists’ expectations. The Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate cuts also contributed to market positivity, despite some dissent among policymakers regarding inflation risks. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman expressed concerns about potential inflationary pressures following last week’s half-point rate cut.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® fell in September 2024 to 98.7 (1985=100), from an upwardly revised 105.6 in August. Consumer Confidence has been little changed in the the last 2 years. Dana M. Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board added:

Consumer confidence dropped in September to near the bottom of the narrow range that has prevailed over the past two years. September’s decline was the largest since August 2021 and all five components of the Index deteriorated. Consumers’ assessments of current business conditions turned negative while views of the current labor market situation softened further. Consumers were also more pessimistic about future labor market conditions and less positive about future business conditions and future income. The drop in confidence was steepest for consumers aged 35 to 54. As a result, on a six-month moving average basis, the 35–54 age group has become the least confident while consumers under 35 remain the most confident. Confidence declined in September across most income groups, with consumers earning less than $50K experiencing the largest decrease. On a six-month moving average basis, consumers earning over $100K remained the most confident.

Richmond Fed manufacturing activity remained sluggish in September 2024. The composite manufacturing index edged down from −19 in August to −21 in September. Of its three component indexes, shipments decreased from −15 to −18, new orders increased from −26 to −23, and employment fell from −15 to −22. Manufacturing remains in a recession in the USA.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year increase of 5.9% in July 2024, dropping from a 6.5% increase in the previous month. CoreLogic Chief Economist Dr. Selma Hepp explains:

With the summer characterized by broader cooling of housing demand amid high mortgage rates, home prices continued to weaken, and July monthly gains appear to be falling below the historical trend. Nevertheless, with a speedy decline in mortgage rates since August, housing market demand tracked by pending sales activity in CoreLogic data is finally showing signs of a rebound, which is expected to boost monthly price gains and return them to historical trends. Interestingly, the weakness in home prices remains in markets that have struggled with demand this year, including markets in Texas and Florida, while more expensive Western markets started to feel the pressure from rising rates in late spring. Going forward, home prices are likely to see a boost from a drop in mortgage rates and improved affordability.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Rising EV Charging Costs Threaten UK’s Electric Vehicle Adoption
Saudi Aramco Looks To Raise $3 Billion from New Bond Issue
Goldman Sees Upside for Oil Prices Amid Supply Concerns
Coal’s Resurgence Challenges Global Energy Transition
The U.S. Is the World’s Top Gasoline Exporter
81% of New Renewable Energy Capacity Added in 2023 Was Cheaper Than Fossil Fuels
‘Stop ripping us off’: Senate grills Novo Nordisk CEO on weight loss drug pricing
September consumer confidence falls the most in three years
S&P 500 rises to new record high Tuesday, posts back-to-back gains: Live updates
‘Childless cat lady’ is a more common lifestyle choice. Here’s what being child-free means for your money
US accuses Visa of debit card monopoly
Oil ends higher after back-to-back losses as China announces stimulus measures

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 24, 2024

By Sig Silber September 24, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Sep 24 2024
Valid 12Z Tue Sep 24 2024 – 12Z Thu Sep 26 2024

…Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine is forecast to pass not too far from
the Florida Keys Wednesday night as a hurricane before skirting up the
West Coast of Florida by Thursday morning…

…Much needed rainfall from the Ohio Valley into the central to southern
Appalachians, Upper Tennessee Valley and Mid-Atlantic…

…Much above average temperatures continue across the West into the
Northern Plains and across the Gulf Coast into the Southeast…

A relatively benign mid- to upper-level trough that will likely bring
beneficial rainfall for the eastern U.S. is forecast to deepen when
another upper-level trough over the northern Plains drops southeast and
merges with the lead trough. The resulting trough amplification will be
instrumental in pulling the tropical moisture as well as Potential Cyclone
Nine (PTC9) northward into the eastern portion of the Gulf of Mexico by
the end of the short-range forecast period on Thursday morning.

The initial impacts from the lead trough will be in the form of an
expanding area of moderate to heavy rainfall potential from the Midwest
into the lower Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, upper Tennessee Valley, central
to southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic near and ahead of a low
pressure wave. Much of these areas are currently experiencing severe to
exceptional drought conditions, with the expected 1 to 1.5 inch plus
rainfall amount over the next two days bringing some relief to these
drought conditions. With the dry conditions across these areas, river
flooding will be unlikely. However, there is still at least a marginal
risk of isolated flash flooding with the expected heavy rainfall amounts,
especially if they occur over urbanized regions.

As the above-mentioned amplifying pattern develops over the northern
Plains and dips toward the Deep South, PTC9 is forecast to track more
toward the north and intensify rapidly as it moves across the Yucatan
Channel on Wednesday and then pass not too far from the Florida Keys
Wednesday night. The Florida Keys can expect strengthening winds with
more frequent passages of squally downpours Wednesday night as PTC9 is
forecast to pass to the west as a hurricane. Computer models indicate
that the circulation of PTC9 will expand as it interacts with the
deepening upper trough in the Deep South. Given a more robust convective
structure concentrated more on the east side of the storm, the West Coast
of Florida could begin to see more frequent and intense squalls with winds
further strengthening by Thursday morning. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for the latest updates on this system.

The amplifying upper ridge across the interior West will be supporting
widespread much above average temperatures over the next few days across
nearly all of the West and into the Northern Plains. High temperatures
across these regions are forecast to be as much as 10 to 20 degrees above
average. Above average temperatures also likely across the Gulf Coast and
into the Southeast. While temperatures are forecast to be much above
across these areas over the next few days, there are not expected to be
many record highs. However, more numerous record high morning
temperatures are possible both today and Wednesday morning along the West
coast and from portions of the southern Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast
and Florida. Across the Pacific Northwest, the cold front associated
with a Pacific cyclone centered over the Gulf of Alaska will only bring
some rainfall into the region by Wednesday.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

23 SEPT 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Opened Recording A New Historic High, Then Continued To Trade Sideways Closing At A New High

By Gary Hall September 23, 2024marketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

The Dow closed up 61 points or 0.15%, (Closed at 42,124, New Historic high 42,190)
Nasdaq closed up 0.14%,
S&P 500 closed up 0.28%,
Gold $2,651 up $5.10,
WTI crude oil settled at $71 down $0.45,
10-year U.S. Treasury 3.747 up 0.019 points,
USD index $100.89 up $0.17,
Bitcoin $63,443 down $187 or 0.29%,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks rose on Monday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 reaching new record closing highs. Investors are looking ahead to key economic data releases and Federal Reserve speakers for clues about future rate cuts. The main focus is on

Friday’s PCE index reading (the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge)
Thursday’s second quarter GDP print Remarks from Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell Federal Reserve Insights

Fed officials Raphael Bostic and Neel Kashkari explained their support for the recent 50 basis point rate cut, citing progress on inflation and a cooling job market. Investors are closely watching for further comments from Fed officials, especially given the rare lack of unanimity in the last decision. Tesla (TSLA) stock rose on a bullish delivery forecast ahead of its robotaxi day in October. Intel (INTC) shares jumped after Apollo Global Management reportedly offered a multibillion-dollar investment. Boeing (BA) shares increased 2% after raising its negotiation offer to its machinist union. General Motors (GM) stock dropped following a downgrade by Bernstein analysts, who cited earnings headwinds and cost concerns.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, decreased to –0.17 in August from –0.13 in July. A zero value for the CFNAI has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth. Following a period of economic expansion, an increasing likelihood of a recession has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value below –0.70. Conversely, following a period of economic contraction, an increasing likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above –0.70 and a significant likelihood of an expansion has historically been associated with a CFNAI-MA3 value above +0.20. The bottom line here is that according to this index the USA economy has been relatively poor for the last two years – which roughly correlates to the elevated inflation situation.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

Three Mile Island Nuke to Reopen with Microsoft Contract
Oil Steadies Amid Israeli Bombardment of Southern Lebanon
Shell Abandons Norway’s Hydrogen Projects Due To Lack Of Demand
China’s Russian Oil Imports Jump 25% as Beijing Seeks Cheap Crude
Looming Port Strike Threatens to Cripple East Coast Supply Chains
U.S. Administration Backs $1-Billion Fund for Small Automakers Investing in EVs
Southwest Airlines tells staff ‘difficult decisions’ ahead in push to boost profits
S&P 500 rises to fresh record close Monday as traders aim to extend Fed cut relief rally: Live updates
How Foot Locker is waging a comeback after its breakup with Nike
FBI stats show murder dropped 11.6%, the largest single year decline in the last 20 years
Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari sees a slower pace of rate cuts ahead
Barclays & Goldman Analysts Share Tesla Vehicle Delivery Estimates With Clients
Investors clinging to cash face these two risks as the Fed cuts interest rates, researchers say

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted September 23, 2024

By Sig Silber September 23, 2024weatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Sep 23 2024
Valid 12Z Mon Sep 23 2024 – 12Z Wed Sep 25 2024

…Threat of heavy rain and locally strong to severe thunderstorms will
slowly shift from the southern Plains this morning to the Ohio Valley,
central Appalachians and lower Great Lakes on Tuesday into early
Wednesday…

…Watching the western Caribbean Sea for tropical cyclone formation that
could bring strengthening winds and passing squally downpours into the
Florida Keys Tuesday night into Wednesday morning…

A low pressure consolidating over the southern Plains along a slow-moving
front is forecast to move northeastward through the Mid-Mississippi Valley
by tonight, then across the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Heavy
showers and some severe thunderstorms this morning across the southern
Plains are expected to taper off as today progresses but the threat of
heavy rain and locally strong to severe thunderstorms will increase from
the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Midwest in the mean time. By Tuesday,
the center of the low will pass through the Midwest toward the lower Great
Lakes, the threat of heavy rain and embedded strong thunderstorms will
then develop well ahead of the low across the Ohio Valley, mainly from
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. By early Wednesday, many areas
across the lower Great Lakes and the interior East Coast will be
enshrouded by showers and embedded thunderstorms. These showers and
storms will extend farther southwest near/along the trailing front across
the interior Gulf Coast states. Showers and periods of rain will also
move across the lower Great Lakes into the central Appalachians and
upstate New York in association with another wave of low pressure near the
front.

The upper-level low behind the slow-moving front will slide across the
central Plains, allowing much of the western U.S. to remain dry along with
a warming trend for the next couple of days. Meanwhile, colder air will
remain entrenched across the Plains behind the front but 90s will be
common in the afternoon across the South and into the interior Southeast
today and Tuesday ahead of the front. The outer edge of a Pacific cyclone
centered over the Gulf of Alaska will only bring some light rain into
northwestern Washington State this morning.

Farther south into the tropics, the National Hurricane Center continues to
watch the western Caribbean Sea for potential tropical cyclone formation.
Computer models now appear to be in good agreement for the system to move
northwestward and reach the Yucatan Channel by the time the short-range
forecast period ends Wednesday morning. This means that the Florida Keys
could experience strengthening winds along with passing squally downpours
from Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Please refer to the National
Hurricane Center for the latest updates on this system.