Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 291 points or 0.84%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.17%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.77%,
• Gold $1,919 down $8.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $0.70,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.288% up 0.030 points,
• USD Index $103.43 up $0.001,
• Bitcoin $27,870 down $1,212,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall according to the August 2023 Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive for the first time since May 2022. This is in sharp contrast to other regional surveys which show manufacturing in a recession.

In the week ending August 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims 4-week moving average was 234,250, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 231,000 to 231,500.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in July 2023 to 105.8 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in June. The LEI is down 4.0 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2023—a slight deterioration from its 3.7 percent contraction over the previous six months (July 2022 to January 2023).  Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

The US LEI—which tracks where the economy is heading—fell for the sixteenth consecutive month in July, signaling the outlook remains highly uncertain. On the other hand, the coincident index (CEI)—which tracks where economic activity stands right now—has continued to grow slowly but inconsistently, with three of the past six months not changing and the rest increasing. As such, the CEI is signaling that we are currently still in a favorable growth environment. However, in July, weak new orders, high-interest rates, a dip in consumer perceptions of the outlook for business conditions, and decreasing hours worked in manufacturing fueled the leading indicator’s 0.4 percent decline. The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead. The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan.

• Saudi Aramco Tops Profit Chart, Leaving Tech Titans In Its Wake
• Citigroup Says To Short Oil After Summer Is Over
• Turkey’s Appetite For Gold Increases As Lira Plummets
• Brazil Looks To Introduce Emissions Cap
• WoodMac: Fivefold Annual Jump In Global Offshore Wind Is “Unrealistic”
• Former Tesla Employees Raise $26 Billion For New Energy Startups
• Dow tumbles nearly 300 points as stocks fall for a third straight day and yields pop: Live updates
• Three ways Walmart and Target are diverging as consumers watch their wallets
• House Republicans subpoena Citibank over info shared with FBI after Jan. 6
• 10-year yield rises to highest level since October 2022
• ‘Streamflation’ Bites As Searches To Cancel Hulu And Disney+ Erupt Nationwide
• Bond Report: 10- and 30-year Treasury yields end at their highest levels since 2007 and 2011

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 181 points or 0.52%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.15%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.76%,
• Gold $1,923 down $12.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $1.79,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.270% up 0.047 points,
• USD Index $103.49 up $0.28,
• Bitcoin $29,100 down $55,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In July 2023, total industrial production declined 0.2% year-over-year. Components manufacturing declined 0.7% year-over-year, mining was up 2.9% year-over-year, whilst utilities declined 0.9% year-over-year. Capacity utilization moved up to 79.3 percent in July, a rate that is 0.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2022) average. Overall, industrial production remains in a recession and is little changed over the last 5 months.

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July 2023 were 13.0% below July 2022. Housing starts were up 5.9% year-over-year. Housing completions were down 11.8 % year-over-year. It appears new housing is beginning to break out of its recession.

Today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes for the FOMC meeting which ended on 26 July 2023. Interesting statements in the minutes:

… tighter credit conditions for households and businesses were likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. However, participants agreed that the extent of these effects remained uncertain. Against this background, the Committee remained highly attentive to inflation risks.

… Participants commented that monetary policy tightening appeared to be working broadly as intended and that a continued gradual slowing in real GDP growth would help reduce demand–supply imbalances in the economy. Participants assessed that the ongoing tightening of credit conditions in the banking sector, as evidenced in the most recent surveys of banks, also would likely weigh on economic activity in coming quarters.

… Participants judged that, over coming quarters, firms would reduce the pace of their investment spending and hiring in response to tight financial conditions and the slowing of economic activity.

… They noted evidence that labor demand was easing—including declines in job openings, lower quits rates, more part-time work, slower growth in hours worked, higher unemployment insurance claims, and more moderate rates of nominal wage growth. In addition, they remarked on indications of increasing labor supply, including a further rise in the prime-age participation rate to a post-pandemic high.

… Participants cited a number of tentative signs that inflation pressures could be abating. These signs included some softening in core goods prices, lower online prices, evidence that firms were raising prices by smaller amounts than previously, slower increases in shelter prices, and recent declines in survey estimates of shorter-term inflation expectations and of inflation uncertainty.

… With inflation still well above the Committee’s longer-run goal and the labor market remaining tight, most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy. Some participants commented that even though economic activity had been resilient and the labor market had remained strong, there continued to be downside risks to economic activity and upside risks to the unemployment rate; these included the possibility that the macroeconomic effects of the tightening in financial conditions since the beginning of last year could prove more substantial than anticipated. A number of participants judged that, with the stance of monetary policy in restrictive territory, risks to the achievement of the Committee’s goals had become more two sided, and it was important that the Committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent overtightening of policy against the cost of an insufficient tightening.

• U.S. Gas Prices Hit Year High As Market Tightens
• Energy Transfer LP To Acquire Crestwood Equity Partners In $7B Deal
• Lula Aide Signals It’s Okay For Petrobras To Pursue Amazon Drilling
• Tesla Reignites Price War With More Cuts In China
• Fed officials see ‘upside risks’ to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes, minutes show
• Aldi to acquire Winn-Dixie and Harveys Supermarket stores in Southern expansion
• Appeals court imposes restrictions on abortion pill, but drug will stay on the market for now
• Target Pride backlash adds to sales woes as culture wars rage in corporate America
• FOMC Minutes Signal Hawkish Fed Fears “Significant Upside Risks To Inflation”
• Inflation slows to 6.8% but flights and hotels keep prices high
• Movers & Shakers: Intel and Tower Semiconductor shares fall, Target’s stock gains, and more stocks on the move
• Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield ends at 15-year high after Fed’s July minutes

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 361 points or 1.02%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.14%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.16%,
• Gold $1,935 down $9.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $12 down $1.50,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.213% up 0.031 points,
• USD Index $103.21 up $0.02,
• Bitcoin $29,152 down $161,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Prices for U.S. imports in July 2023 rose to -4.4% year-over-year from -6.1% last month. Export prices rose from -11.9% year-over-year last month to -7.9% in July 2023. Overall export / import prices are deflating. The rise in import prices is attributable to increases in petroleum prices whilst export price increases were driven my agriculture products.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2023 were up 3.2% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below). Inflation-adjusted sales (red line on the graph below) are up 1.4% year-over-year. Retail sales seem to be modestly improving but remain weak.

The August 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey index fell twenty points to -19.0. New orders and shipments fell significantly. The recession in manufacturing seems to be continuing.

• U.S. Shale Oil Production Growth Getting Increasingly Difficult: Report
• U.S. Pipeline Gas Exports To Mexico Hit A Record-High
• Recycling Breakthrough Makes Plastic Waste A High-Value Commodity
• Libya’s Oil Output Threatened As Intense Fighting Breaks Out In Tripoli
• Dow slides more than 300 points, breaking a 3-day win streak, as bank names tumble: Live updates
• Regional banks slide after Fed’s Kashkari advocates ‘significantly further’ capital regulation
• Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks, including JPMorgan Chase
• Homebuilder sentiment drops sharply, as mortgage rates surge over 7%
• Silver Price Inexcusably Low Given The Market Dynamics
• Turley: The Fourth Indictment Of Donald Trump & The Criminalization Of Election Controversies
• Futures Movers: U.S. oil price ends nearly 2% lower on China worries
• MarketWatch: On the streets of San Francisco, will robotaxis run amok or aground?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 26 points or 0.07%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.05%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.58%,
• Gold $1,940 down $7.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $0.70,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.185% up 0.017 points,
• USD Index $103.14 up $0.30,
• Bitcoin $29,318 down $102,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No major releases today.

• Americans Struggling To Pay Skyrocketing Energy Bills
• What Happens When Essential Commodities Become Luxuries?
• Sudan Oil Exports Rising Despite Conflict
• Nigeria’s Forcados Crude Resumes Loadings After Month-Long Halt
• Analyst: Oil Is Heading Well Into The $90 Range
• Gold Prices Dip As Recession Fears Fade
• S&P 500, Nasdaq close higher Monday as tech stocks make a comeback: Live updates
• Cruise vehicles cause weekend traffic jam one day after California approves 24-7 robotaxi service
• More than 227,000 global tech workers have lost their jobs so far this year

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.