Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 4, 2023

July 4, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:10 p.m. EDT Sunday July 4, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
311 PM EDT Tue Jul 04 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Jul 05 2023 – 00Z Fri Jul 07 2023

…Well above-normal to record-breaking heat expected for portions of the
Pacific Northwest…

…Strong to severe storms likely for portions of the Northern/Central
Plains and into the Midwest; Critical Fire Risk over northern Arizona
tonight…

…Heavy to excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding possible from
Northern/Central Plains into Upper Midwest as well as Northeast tonight…

03 July 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s First Day Of The Third Quarter Reported Opening Session Lower, Trading Sideways, Closing Fractionally Higher In The Green

July 3, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 11 points or 0.03%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 0.21%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.12%,
  • Gold $1,929 down $0.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $0.52,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.858% up 0.039 points,
  • USD Index $103.01 up $0.09,
  • Bitcoin $31,263 up $704,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Construction spending during May 2023 is up 7.3% year-over-year (but DOWN 3.2% year-over-year inflation adjusted. This sector remains in a recession.

The June Manufacturing PMI® registered 46.0% down, 0.9 percentage points from May 2023. This number shows a seventh month of contraction. The New Orders Index remained in contraction at 45.6% which is 3 percentage points higher than May. Manufacturing remains in a recession.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • What China’s Solar Dominance Means For Global Trade
  • U.S. Lifts Tariffs On Indian Steel And Aluminum
  • China Stockpiling Cobalt Reserves Amid Price Crash
  • Tesla Stock Climbs 6% After Beating Analyst Delivery Estimates
  • Code Language Limitations: The Achilles’ Heel Of Autonomous Vehicles
  • Oil, EVs, And Big Tech Hit The Ground Running In The Second Half
  • Oil Prices Climb As Saudi Arabia Extends Production Cut Into August
  • Dodge Durango, Jeep SUVs push Stellantis second-quarter sales up 6.4%
  • Bitcoin crosses $31,000, and Galaxy Digital’s CIO shares crypto outlook for Q3: CNBC Crypto World
  • AOC Wants Supreme Court Justices Impeached In Retaliation For Doing Their Job

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 3, 2023

July 3, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 4:13 p.m. EDT Monday, July 3, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
351 PM EDT Mon Jul 03 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jul 04 2023 – 00Z Thu Jul 06 2023

…Well above-normal to record-breaking heat expected for portions of the
Northwest…

…Strong to severe storms likely for portions of the northern to central
Plains and the Midwest…

…Unsettled weather, including strong to severe storms, expected from
parts of the Mid Atlantic and Southeast into the southern Plains…

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 14A – Deflation

July 2, 2023Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

We have failed to find systematic relationships between consumer inflation and federal deficit spending over long time periods. This is a continuation of looking at each period of significant inflation and disinflation/deflation individually.  Parts 13A1 and 13B2 analyzed the ten significant inflation periods since 1914.  This is the first of two posts to analyze the eleven significant deflationary periods for the years 1914-2022.


From photo by Guillaume de Germain on Unsplash

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 2, 2023

July 2, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Jul 02 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Jul 02 2023 – 12Z Tue Jul 04 2023

…Heavy rain with the risk of localized flash flooding and severe weather
stretching from the Northeast to the Ohio/Tennessee Valley today…

…Heat will be less intense across the South but will remain excessively
hot over California and the Desert Southwest…

…Much above normal temperatures for portions of the northern Plains and
upper Midwest ahead of rain/storm chances Monday into the 4th of July holiday…

NOAA Updates It’s July 2023 Outlook on June 30, 2023- It is a dramatic change from the Mid-Month Outlook

July 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

At the end of every month, NOAA updates its Outlook for the following month which in this case is July of 2023. We are reporting on that tonight.

There have been some significant changes in the Outlook for July and these are addressed in the NOAA Discussion so it is well worth reading. We highlighted some of the important statements within the NOAA Discussion. We also provided the prior Mid-Month Outlook for July for comparison.  From the NOAA Discussion:

  • El Niño is still present in the equatorial Pacific, and likely to remain in place for the entire month.
  • For the temperature outlook, the largest changes from the mid-month outlook to the updated outlook extend from the Northern and Central Rockies to High Plains, and across southern Alaska.
  • The outlook over the Northern and Central Rockies and High Plains now favors below-normal temperatures, largely influenced by the forecast conditions early in the month (Days 1-14).
  • The probabilities for above-normal temperatures are decreased over the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys, reflective of the latest official outlooks and model guidance.
  • The precipitation outlook for Alaska has changed to favoring above-normal precipitation from the Alaska Peninsula northward across western Alaska to the Brooks Ranges and along the northern coast.
  • Hurricane Beatriz could trigger a monsoon moisture surge during the first half of July across the Southwest, so probabilities are mitigated compared to some model guidance.
  • Stronger signals  for above-normal precipitation are located over the Central Great Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley due to predicted rains in the first week exceeding the threshold for the below normal category on the monthly timescale.
  • Small portions of Texas are also likely to exceed that threshold during the first week of July.
  • During the remainder of the month, an active storm track is forecast from the Northern Rockies to the Ohio Valley and Northeast, which leads to enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation in those regions.
  • During July, a pattern change favors widespread above-normal rainfall extending from the central Plains across the Corn Belt and Northeast, with enhanced rainfall possibly extending southward to the southern Appalachians and Piedmont.

It may be easier to just look at the maps than digest the above.

The article includes the Drought Outlook for July. NOAA also adjusted the previously issued Seasonal Drought Outlook to reflect the changes in the July Outlook. We have also included the current fire incidents (dramatically decreased) and four months of Wildland Fire Potential Outlooks and also a map showingthe water-year-to-date precipitation. We also provide the Week 2/3 Tropical Outlook for the World.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted July 1, 2023

July 1, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:20 p.m. EDT Saturday July 1, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 PM EDT Sat Jul 01 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Jul 02 2023 – 00Z Tue Jul 04 2023

…Heavy rain with the risk of localized flash flooding and severe weather
stretching from the Northeast to the Mid-South Sunday…

…Excessive heat continues for portions of the South as well as
California and the Desert Southwest…

…Much above normal temperatures for portions of the Northern Plains and
Upper-Midwest ahead of rain/storm chances Monday…

30 June 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Last Day Of June Begins With Wall Street Markets Opening Sharply Higher, Trading Sideways, Closing At Session Highs

June 30, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 285 points or 0.84%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 1.45%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.23%,
  • Gold $1,928 up $9.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $0.66,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.819% down 0.035 points,
  • USD Index $102.92 down $0.43,
  • Bitcoin $30,418 down $175,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -8 to 674 Canada -2 to 167

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Real disposable personal income (DPI), inflation-adjusted personal income less personal current taxes, increased 4.0% year-over-year, and real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 2.1% year-over-year. Personal income remains on an up-trend whilst consumption expenditures remain little changed. The PCE price index, which is the data set the Federal Reserve uses to monitor inflation, moderated to 3.8% year-over-year. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index increased 4.6% year-over-year. Please note that there has been little progress in reducing inflation when one excludes food and energy.

Chicago business barometer inched up to 41.5 in June from 40.4 in May, although a reading below 50 still indicates contraction. Pundits believe the Chicago Business Barometer is a window into the ISM manufacturing index. [graph below from RTT News]

Consumer sentiment rose 9% this month, a consensus improvement across all demographic groups. The year-ahead economic outlook soared 28% over last month, and long-run expectations rose 11% as well. Overall, this striking upswing reflects a recovery in attitudes generated by the early-month resolution of the debt ceiling crisis, along with more positive feelings over softening inflation. Views of their own personal financial situation were unchanged, however, as persistent high prices and expenses continued to weigh on consumers.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Azerbaijan And NATO Deepen Ties
  • Bulls And Bears Face Off As Copper Outlook Flashes Mixed Signals
  • U.S. Oil And Gas Rig Counts Decline For Second Consecutive Month
  • The Freight Industry Dilemma: Legacy Leases And Saturated Market
  • Oil Prices Remain Rangebound Despite Growing Optimism
  • Russia Remains On The Brink Of Civil War
  • Supreme Court strikes down Biden’s student loan forgiveness plan
  • S&P 500 rises on Friday to close out big first half, Nasdaq posts best start to a year in 4 decades: Live updates
  • Bitcoin soars in first half of 2023, and fintech firm Revolut to delist altcoins: CNBC Crypto World
  • Futures Movers: Oil futures climb, with global prices registering the first monthly gain of the year but a 4th straight quarterly decline

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 30, 2023

June 30, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Updated at 5:02 p.m. EDT Friday, June 30, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
340 PM EDT Fri Jun 30 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jul 01 2023 – 00Z Mon Jul 03 2023

…More severe thunderstorms and areas of heavy rain to track eastward
from the central Plains to the Ohio Valley for the next couple of days…

…Excessive Heat Warnings and Advisories across much of California into
the Desert Southwest as well as through the lower and mid-Mississippi
Valley…

…Air Quality alerts over parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, central
Appalachians, Northeast, and Mid-Atlantic…

29 June 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Fractionally Lower, Trended Higher, Closing Near Session Highs

June 29, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 270 points or 0.80%,
  • Nasdaq closed flat 0.00%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 0.45%,
  • Gold $1,916 down $6.10,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $0.28,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.842% up 0.128 points,
  • USD Index $103.33 up $0.42,
  • Bitcoin $30,617 up $543,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for July 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

CoreLogic’s monthly Loan Performance Insights Report for April 2023 shows mortgage performance remained strong with overall delinquencies at minimal levels and serious delinquencies at a 23-year low. 2.8% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 0.1 percentage point decrease compared with 2.9% in April 2022 and a 0.2 percentage point increase compared with 2.6% in March 2023. So far, there is no indication of stress in the mortgage sector.

The third estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an improved annual rate of 2.0%. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6%.  The updated estimates primarily reflected upward revisions to exports and consumer spending that were partly offset by downward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment and federal government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised down. The table below shows the changes in GDP estimates for 1Q2023.

Pending home sales shrunk 2.7% in May 2023 from the previous month and declined 22.2% year-over-year. Existing home sales remain in a depression. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun added:

Despite sluggish pending contract signings, the housing market is resilient with approximately three offers for each listing. The lack of housing inventory continues to prevent housing demand from being fully realized.

In the week ending June 24, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 257,500, an increase of 1,500 from the previous week’s revised average. This is the highest level for this average since November 13, 2021 when it was 260,000. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 255,750 to 256,000.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • How Russia’s Failed Coup Could Impact Global Commodities Markets
  • Putin’s Plummeting Political Clout Is A Disaster For Xi
  • Global Oil Reserves Could Increase Global Temperatures By 0.2°C
  • Supreme Court rejects affirmative action at colleges as unconstitutional
  • Dow closes 200 points higher as major banks pop on stress test results, GDP revised upward: Live updates
  • Virgin Galactic completes first commercial flight in major step for space tourism company
  • Fed paper argues ‘bleak’ stock market returns could slide to 2% annually
  • Movers & Shakers: Bank of America, Rite Aid stocks rise, Micron and Virgin Galactic shares fall, and other stocks on the move

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.