Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 23, 2024

November 23, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Nov 23 2024
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 23 2024 – 12Z Mon Nov 25 2024

…Very strong Atmospheric River to produce heavy snow across the Sierra
Nevada before winding down over north/central California today…

…Above average temperatures expand across the Central U.S. this
weekend…

Moisture associated with a highly impactful and dangerous atmospheric
river event will diminish as it sags south and east through central
California today. Heavy snow is likely over much of the Sierra Nevada this
morning where anywhere between 1-2 feet are expected to accumulate when
all said and done. Upslope portions of the Sierra below 7000 feet may
experience isolated instances of flash flooding this morning before snow
levels drop on the backside of the cold front pushing through the West
this afternoon. Snow showers spread into Northern/Central Rockies this
afternoon and the Intermountain West on Sunday. Snowfall totals of 6-12
inches are probable for the aforementioned areas by the end of the weekend.

Surface high pressure extending from central Canada down to the Gulf Coast
will support below average temperatures for those regions through tonight.
Parts of the Southeast will experience low temperatures in the mid to
upper 30s which may lead to some frost/freezes. A deepening upper trough
over the north-central U.S.and Ridge over Mexico will promote above
average temperatures across the Great Plains today and Sunday before
expanding into the East by Monday. Elsewhere, mixed precipitation can be
expected to continue across portions of upstate New York and New England
today.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

22 NOV 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Three Main Indexes Open Mixed Small Caps Finally Closing Fractionally Higher, While The Dow Closes Moderately Higher

November 22, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 426 points or 0.97%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 31 points or 0.16%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 21 points or 0.35%,
  • Gold $2,708 up $33.10 or 1.23%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $71 up $1.05 or 1.50%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.416 down 0.016 points or 0.361%,
  • USD index $107.53 up $0.56 or 0.52%,
  • Bitcoin $99,411 up $1,402 or 1.41%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 99,789)
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 583 Canada +1 to 201
    U.S. Rig Count is down 1 from last week to 583 with oil rigs up 1 to 479, gas rigs down 2 to 99 and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 5.

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The U.S. stock markets closed near its session highs on Friday, with the major indices showing positive momentum. The major indices closed the week with gains exceeding 1%, despite a sluggish start following the post-election rally. Market participants re-calibrated after Nvidia’s earnings, which raised questions about AI’s continued impact on stock prices. For the week, Tesla shares rose almost 4%, while Nvidia experienced a more than 3% dip. Wall Street continues to anticipate President-elect Donald Trump’s cabinet selections, particularly the Treasury secretary position, which could significantly impact market dynamics. Bitcoin maintained its upward trajectory, approaching the $100,000 milestone. The cryptocurrency briefly surpassed $99,500 early Friday, buoyed by expectations of favorable crypto regulations under the incoming Trump administration. Finally, the market awaits a shortened trading week due to Thanksgiving with oil prices increasing amid escalating tensions in the Russia-Ukraine war.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Iran Escalates Nuclear Tensions with Advanced Centrifuge Installation
  • U.S. Drilling Activity Slips Further As Market Volatility Remains
  • Texas Pacific Land Replaces Marathon Oil in S&P 500 After ConocoPhillips Deal
  • Geopolitical Risk and Supply Outages Underpin Oil Prices
  • Is the Russia-Ukraine War Really Escalating?
  • ‘I have no money’: Thousands of Americans see their savings vanish in Synapse fintech crisis
  • Dow rises more than 400 points for record close, Wall Street posts weekly gain: Live updates
  • The case for altcoins and memes as bitcoin, now approaching $100,000, faces a potential correction
  • Bitcoin tests $100,000 heading into the weekend: CNBC Crypto World
  • Egg Prices Surge Again As Grocers Face Shortages Amid Bird Flu Outbreak
  • 2-year Treasury yield has 8th straight week of gains on improved U.S. outlook
  • U.S. oil prices score a more than 6% weekly gain on supply risks tied to the Russia-Ukraine war

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its Seasonal Outlook on November 21, 2024 – Still based on a weak La Nina starting very soon – Posted on November 22, 2024

November 22, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more.

With respect to the long-term part of the Outlook which I call the Four-Season Outlook, the timing of the transition from Neutral to LaNina has been challenging to predict.  We are still in ENSO Neutral. La Nina is the likely scenario soon, but the strength of the La Nina may be fairly weak.

From the NOAA discussion:

“Taken collectively, statistical and dynamical model forecast guidance of the Niño3.4 index favor the development of a weak and most likely short duration La Niña event. Some statistical model forecasts do favor a continuation of ENSO-neutral into and through winter 2024-2025. Dynamical model guidance predictions tend to support weak La Niña conditions to develop, including the majority of participant models from the NMME and C3S forecast suites. Most recent observations and the forecast guidance noted above favor La Niña to emerge during OND 2024 (57% chance) and it is expected to persist through JFM 2025. After JFM 2025, ENSO-neutral is the most likely category into the northern hemisphere summer of 2025.”

“Based on a weak La Nina and models overdoing trends, observed trends become more of the signal. Furthermore, higher frequency patterns (AO, MJO, and stratospheric variability) that result in increased uncertainty can also play a larger role. Those modes are largely not predictable on seasonal timescales,”

I personally would not have total confidence in this outlook given the uncertainty about there actually being a La Nina and its strength if it does happen.  I forecasted the JAMSTEC three-season forecast last Saturday LINK. I do not have a lot of confidence that NOAA knows how to deal with a La Nina Modoki. The number of El Nino and La Nina events since 1950 is a fairly small number. When you further segment them by strength you end up with a very small number of events in each category (El Nino v La Nina and three or four categories of strength within each of perhaps 8  to 10 subcategories. This makes both statistical methods and dynamical models have a large error range.  We are pretty confident now that we will have either a weak La Nina or Neutral with a La Nina bias meaning it will be in the Neutral Range but closer to a La Nina than an El Nino. This suggests that there is value in this forecast. The maps show the level of confidence that NOAA (really the NOAA Climate Prediction Center) has for the outlook shown when they show a part of the U.S. or Alaska differing from normal.

Let’s Take a Look at the (mid-month) Outlook for December.

It will be updated on the last day of November.

Then we look at a graphic that shows both the next month and the next three months.

The top row is what is now called the Mid-Month Outlook for next month which will be updated at the end of this month. There is a temperature map and a precipitation map. The second row is a three-month outlook that includes next month.  I think the outlook maps are self-explanatory. What is important to remember is that they show deviations from the current definition of normal which is the period 1991 through 2020.  So this is not a forecast of the absolute value of temperature or precipitation but the change from what is defined as normal or to use the technical term “climatology”.

Notice that the Outlook for next month and the three-month Outlook are fairly similar except in two places.  This tells us that January and February will be substantially the same as December for most of CONUS and Alaska. Part of the explanation for this is that NOAA expects La Nina to impact all three months.

–

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through December/January/February of 2026 (yes that is more than a year out). All of these maps are in the body of the article. Large maps are provided for December and the three-month period December/January/February  Small maps are provided beyond that through December/January/February of 2026 with a link to get larger versions of these maps. NOAA provides a discussion to support the maps. It is included in the body of this article.

In some cases, one will need to click on “read more” to read the full article. For those on my email list where I have sent the url of the article, that will not be necessary.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 22, 2024

November 22, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Nov 22 2024
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 22 2024 – 12Z Sun Nov 24 2024

…Atmospheric river will produce one last round of heavy rain/mountain
snow and strong wind gusts across the Pacific Northwest today…

…Moderate to heavy snow for portions of the Central Appalachians today...

…Above average temperatures expand across the Central U.S. this
weekend…

Anomalous moisture supported by a deep low pressure system will continue
impacting the Pacific Northwest today. Life threatening flooding is likely
across portions of northern California, where additional amounts of 3-5″
are expected, mainly over coastal areas. As much as 4-10″ of rain are
possible for the northern Sierra Nevada. Dangerous flooding, rock slides
and debris flows remain likely today. A Moderate Risk of Flash Flooding is
in effect for upslope portions of the northern Sierra below 5000′. The
flooding risk will decrease from north to south by later today and into
tonight. Heavy mountain snow is expected over the Washington Cascades and
Northern Rockies through Saturday. Multiple feet of snow are likely to
accumulate over portions of the northern Sierra (above 7000′) by Saturday
evening. Strong winds will continue across coastal areas of northwest
California into western Washington, and over south-central Oregon. These
winds may blow down trees and power lines, and additional power outages
are possible.

A deep upper low will pivot over the Northeast and reinforce a cooler
airmass along with a relatively shallow bit of moisture into the region
today. Some rain and snow showers are expected across much of the
Northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic as a result. Heavier snow will likely
remain confined to the higher terrain of the Central Appalachians, where
between 6-12 inches are expected with locally higher amounts possible.
Snow chances diminish as the day progresses and temperatures rise. Upper
ridging over the Intermountain West and Rockies will shift eastward into
the Central U.S. this weekend where above average temperatures are likely
to follow.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

21 NOV 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Bitcoin New High Nears $100K Milestone, Dow Rises Over 500 Points, S&P 500 Posts Modest Gain

November 21, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 462 points or 1.06%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 6 points or 0.03%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 32 points or 0.53%,
  • Gold $2,674 up $22.50 or 0.85%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $1.44 or 2.09%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.420 up 0.014 points or 0.318%,
  • USD index $107.02 up $0.34 or 0.32%,
  • Bitcoin $98,000 up $1,058 or 1.08%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 98,903)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

US stocks experienced volatility on Thursday as investors reacted to NVIDIA’s earnings and Alphabet’s stock decline. NVIDIA reported strong earnings but forecasted slower revenue growth due to supply chain issues affecting its new Blackwell chip. Despite this, some analysts believe the revenue boost is merely delayed, given NVIDIA’s dominant position in AI chip-making. Nvidia’s shares closed up less than 1%. Alphabet’s stock tumbled after the Department of Justice sought to force Google to sell its Chrome browser. In other market news, Investors favored Utilities, Industrials, and Financials sectors while moving away from Big Tech. Bitcoin briefly reached a new all-time high near $99,000, approaching the $100,000 milestone. MicroStrategy shares fell over 17% after Citron Research announced a short position, despite Bitcoin’s record highs.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

CoreLogic® released its latest Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) annual U.S. rent growth registered a 2% increase in September 2024, continuing a slowing trend that began in early 2024 but is well below the average annual rent growth of 3.5% that occurred in the decade before the pandemic. CoreLogic principal economist Molly Boesel’s view:

Single-family annual rent growth slowed in September to the lowest rate in over four years, and monthly rent growth posted a second month of below-seasonal trend growth, making it clear that single-family rent growth is decelerating. While about one-third of metros showed stronger rent growth than in the previous year, more metros showed decreases in rents than in the prior report. While a slowing in rents will be welcome news to renters, increases since 2020 are still at 32%.

The Philly Fed November Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey’s indicator for current general activity turned negative, while the indexes for new orders and shipments declined but remained positive. The diffusion index for current general activity fell from 10.3 to -5.5, its second negative reading since January (see Chart below). The manufacturing sector remains in a recession in the US.

Existing-home sales was up 2.9% from one year ago – which is the first year-over-year increase in more than three years. The median existing-home sales price ascended 4.0% from October 2023 to $407,200. The inventory of unsold existing homes is now 4.2 months’ supply at the current monthly sales pace. The folks at the National Association of Realtors thinks this is a sign of growing housing demand. I think we need to wait a few months before believing this.

The Kansas City Manufacturing Survey shows the month-over-month composite index was -2 in November 2024, up from -4 in October and -8 in September. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. The manufacturing sector remains in a recession in the US.

In the week ending November 16, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 217,750, a decrease of 3,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 221,000 to 221,500. The current data is showing an accelerating economy.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US declined by 0.4% in October 2024 to 99.5 (2016=100), following a 0.3% decline in September (revised up from a 0.5% decline).  You all know the story of the boy who cried wolf. Well The Conference Board has been saying the economy is going to fall into the toilet for the last 2 years – and this only suggests that the underlying methodology in the LEI is not representative of the current economy.  Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board opinion:

The largest negative contributor to the LEI’s decline came from manufacturer new orders, which remained weak in 11 out of 14 industries. In October, manufacturing hours worked fell by the most since December 2023, while unemployment insurance claims rose and building permits declined, partly reflecting the impact of hurricanes in the Southeast US. Additionally, the negative yield spread continued to weigh on the LEI. Apart from possible temporary impacts of hurricanes, the US LEI continued to suggest challenges to economic activity ahead.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • China’s Solar Dominance Fuels Asia’s Green Energy Shift
  • Kenya Cancels Adani Energy, Airport Deals Amid U.S. Indictment
  • Exxon Mobil To Launch Offshore Cyprus Gas Drilling in 2025
  • Russia’s Gas Exports via Ukraine Remain Stable Despite OMV Dispute
  • Lower Oil Prices Boost China’s Crude Imports in November
  • U.S. LNG Exports to Europe Set to Surge as European Gas Prices Soar
  • Dow closes more than 450 points higher as investors snap up stocks tied to the economy: Live updates
  • Alphabet shares slide 6% following DOJ push for Google to divest Chrome
  • Snowflake rockets 32%, its best day ever, after earnings beat
  • Trump and Fed Chair Powell could be set on a collision course over interest rates
  • US Bitcoin ETF Assets Break Above $100 Billion
  • Gary Gensler to step down as SEC chair, in a move that has crypto bulls ‘glad’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 21, 2024

November 21, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Nov 21 2024
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 21 2024 – 12Z Sat Nov 23 2024

…Strong atmospheric river continues to impact northern California with
heavy rain and life-threatening flooding through Friday…

…Developing storm system forecast to bring another round of gusty winds
to the Pacific Northwest on Friday with heavy mountain snow spreading
toward the northern Rockies this weekend...

…Unsettled weather expected across much of the Northeast and Great Lakes
over the next few days, including the likelihood of heavy snow in the
central Appalachians and higher elevations of northeastern Pennsylvania
and southern New York…

Impactful and for some place dangerous weather conditions will continue
through early this weekend as two separate storm systems impact the Lower
48. Starting in the West, a strong atmospheric river currently impacting
northern California is forecast to remain relatively stationary over the
next few days and produce an additional 6-12 inches of rainfall over
regions with already saturated terrain. The atmospheric river is expected
to peak in intensity today, but with moderate bouts of rain lingering
through much of Friday and snow levels finally lowering somewhat on
Saturday. In the meantime, dangerous flooding, rock slides, and debris
flows are likely, which has prompted a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive
Rainfall to be issued across the northern California coastline today. Be
sure to check conditions before traveling and never drive across flooded
roadways.

Aiding the surge of atmospheric moisture into northern California and the
Northwest through the end of the week is a developing storm system
forecast to swing off the Oregon and Washington coastline on Friday. A
punch of gusty winds are expected, mainly along coastal regions, could
produce rough surf and additional isolated power outages. As precipitation
lifts northward and inland along a draped stationary boundary stretching
from the northern Rockies to British Columbia, heavy snow is possible from
the Washington Cascades to the western Montana, Idaho, and northwestern
Wyoming mountain ranges through early Sunday.

November snowfall is also in the forecast for parts of the Northeast and
Great Lakes thanks to a potent upper-level low swinging over the region.
At the surface, a compact area of low pressure is currently looping around
the Great Lakes with an eventual southward trajectory over Lake Michigan
later today. Parts of eastern Wisconsin could see precipitation fall as
snow along with wind gusts up to 40 mph. Winter Weather Advisories have
been issued for snowfall amounts up to 3-4 inches. Meanwhile, a separate
area of low pressure developing near Long Island tonight is also expected
to track in a looping orientation across the Northeast through Friday,
while also producing periods of heavy snow. The greatest chances for at
least 6 inches of snowfall is found across northeast Pennsylvania and
southern New York, including the Pocono and Catskill mountains.
Additionally, a long-duration upslope snow event is underway across the
central Appalachians and anticipated to linger through at least early
Saturday. Up to a foot of snow is possible across the higher terrain of
West Virginia, Maryland, and southwest Pennsylvania. Light snow is also
expected to reach as far south as the higher ranges of North Carolina.

The central and southern U.S. can expect much more tranquil conditions as
high pressure creates a void in the unsettled weather impacting both the
East and West coasts. However, below average temperatures are forecast
from the Mississippi Valley to the Southeast as breezy northwest flow
ushers in a colder airmass. This may lead to early morning frost and/or
freeze potential across the Southeast and Lower Mississippi Valley.

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

20 NOV 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Bitcoin New High Almost Hits $95K, Dow Stops Its Slide, Small Caps Close Mixed

November 20, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 140 points or 0.32%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 21 points or 0.11%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 13 points or 0.00%,
  • Gold $2,651 up $20.20 or 0.77%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 down $0.44 or 0.63%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.416 up 0.037 points or 0.845%,
  • USD index $106.69 up $0.48 or 0.45%,
  • Bitcoin $94,165 up $1,610 or 1.71%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 94,862)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The NASDAQ experienced a downturn on Wednesday, with other major indices showing mixed performance. Investors eagerly await Nvidia’s earnings report, which is seen as a critical test for the artificial intelligence sector. Key expectations include projected revenue of $33-34.3 billion (81-82% increase year-over-year). Nvidia is currently the world’s most valuable company, with a market capitalization of $3.61 trillion. The stock has surged 200% this year. The company represents approximately 7% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization. The European Central Bank has warned about potential bubbles in AI stocks. In other market news, Target’s stock plummeted over 21% after missing quarterly profit expectations and Bitcoin reached a new record near $94,500.

trading above $2,600 per ounce.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In October 2024, the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach achieved record cargo volumes. Loaded imports rose 29% while exports grew by 12%. This surge is attributed to importers diverting shipments to Southern California amid labor disputes at other major ports. These ports handle about 40% of all containerized TEUs (20-foot equivalent units) in the country and their early data release gives us an early window into US trade balances. You will notice that imports continue on an upward trend line whilst exports remain on a downward trend line.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Fed Rate Cuts Ignite Construction Boom
  • Big Oil Pours Billions into Biofuel Production to Meet Decarbonization Goals
  • Egypt Seeking Long-Term LNG Deals With U.S. Companies
  • Oil Falls After EIA Confirms Small Crude Inventory Build
  • Resource Wars: China and America Battle for Antimony as Prices Surge 200%
  • Target shares plunge 20% after discounter cuts forecast, posts biggest earnings miss in two years
  • Comcast to spin off cable networks as subscribers flee the bundle
  • Delta expects higher profits thanks to high-end travel and ‘resilient economy’
  • Social Security beneficiaries to soon receive notices revealing the size of their 2025 benefit checks
  • Mike Johnson Bans Transgenders From House Bathrooms After 1st Trans Lawmaker Elected
  • Bitcoin sits at record high — and it’s less volatile. How can that be? Here’s the answer.
  • How Taylor Swift and Beyoncé’s legions of fans could fuel another meme-stock ‘frenzy’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Weather Outlook for the U.S. for Today Through at Least 22 Days and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 20, 2024

November 20, 2024Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks (up to four weeks) and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.

First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here after about 4 p.m. New York time but it is unlikely to have changed very much from the morning update. The images in this article automatically update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 20 2024
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 20 2024 – 12Z Fri Nov 22 2024

…Back-to-back powerful Pacific storm systems to impact the West Coast
through the end of this week with heavy rain, life-threatening flooding,
strong winds, and higher elevation mountain snow…

…Near blizzard conditions are possible through this evening across the
northern Plains…

…Heavy snow is likely throughout parts of the central Appalachians
beginning on Thursday, with a separate burst of snowfall possible across
northeast Pennsylvania and neighboring regions of the Northeast Thursday
night into Friday...

The active November weather pattern impacting CONUS is forecast to
continue through the end of this week and bring hazardous rain, wind, and
snow for several regions. A significant Pacific storm system and strong
atmospheric river have already started pummeling the West Coast and
Northwest this morning. The very deep low pressure system churning about
300 miles off the coast of Washington is responsible for high winds
impacting much of northern California, Oregon, and Washington. These winds
have already produced numerous power outages, reports of tree damage, and
are expected to create blizzard conditions throughout the Cascades.
Fortunately these winds are expected to gradually subside by midday as the
low pressure system swings away from the region. However, a continuous
plume of ample atmospheric moisture content entering northern California
this morning is forecast to linger through the end of the week and lead to
extreme rainfall totals. Over 10 inches of rainfall across the northern
California coast and inland mountain ranges are likely to increase the
threat of life-threatening flash flooding, rock slides, and debris flows.
As this corridor of heavy rainfall lingers along a stationary boundary
extending into the Pacific Ocean, a separate area of low pressure is
forecast to develop and rapidly strengthen off the Northwest coast on
Friday. This storm will help amplify the atmospheric river streaming into
northern California through Friday morning, exacerbating the flooding
threat. WPC has issued a High Risk (level 4/4) of Excessive Rainfall on
Thursday in order to further highlight this concern. Additionally, another
round of strong winds are anticipated from this second low pressure system
throughout the Northwest to end the week. Residents and visitors residing
or traveling between northern California and Washington are advised to
check road conditions before venturing out, listen to advice from local
officials, review emergency plans, and have multiple ways of receiving
warnings.

For the central U.S. the main weather story will be found throughout the
northern Plains as heavy snow and gusty winds create near blizzard
conditions today. These hazardous weather conditions are resulting from a
slow-moving and gradually weakening low pressure system just north of the
Minnesota-North Dakota border. The greatest snowfall amounts are forecast
across North Dakota, eastern South Dakota, and northwest Minnesota, but
with additional totals today generally under 4 inches. Wind impacts should
be more widespread and extend into eastern Montana and Nebraska as maximum
gusts could exceed 60 mph through tonight. This area of low pressure is
anticipated to rapidly weaken tonight and lead to calmer conditions on
Thursday.

After an extended period of dry and tranquil weather across the Northeast,
the upper level system exiting the northern Plains today will slide
eastward and produce a chance for heavy precipitation in the form of both
rain and snow. The evolution of surface features over the next few days
are forecast to begin with a developing strong and compact low pressure
system over the Great Lakes today, while a cold front quickly pushes
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by tonight. Showers and maybe a rumble of
thunder may accompany this cold front as rain possibly mixes with snow
spreading across the Great Lakes. By Thursday, a separate area of low
pressure forming along the aforementioned cold front is expected to deepen
and lift northward into the Northeast, while also leading to a blossoming
precipitation shield. Rain is most likely across New England where warmer
air surges from the Atlantic Ocean, but the higher elevations and area
directly underneath the cold upper low pressure system may see
precipitation fall as heavy snow. Probabilities for at least 4 inches of
snow by Friday night are high (70-90%) across northeast Pennsylvania and
the southern Catskill mountains of New York. Impactful snowfall is also
likely to be experienced throughout the Allegheny mountains of West
Virginia, Maryland, and Pennsylvania through the end of the week due to a
longer duration favorable upslope snow setup. Total snowfall amounts in
these higher elevations could add up to a foot.

Elsewhere, high pressure building into the south-central U.S. will create
dry conditions from the lower Mississippi Valley to much of the Plains,
Rockies, and Southwest. The temperature outlook features one final day of
widespread 60s and 70s along the East Coast before a strong cold front
knocks afternoon highs below average through the start of the weekend. The
coldest temperatures when compared to climatology over the next few days
are forecast across the northern Plains (highs in the 20s) and Ohio Valley
(highs in the 30s and 40s).

To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.

Learn about wave patterns HERE.

Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.

Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.

The Three New Kingdoms

The Three New Kingdoms

November 20, 2024Posted inopinionNo Comments

By “three new kingdoms,” I mean America, China, and Russia. I call them the “three new kingdoms” because of their striking resemblance to the “three kingdoms” in ancient China.

The three new kingdoms have been fighting against one another since 1945 and will continue to do so in the coming decades.

19 NOV 2024 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Small Caps Rise Again While The Dow Sinks Five Sessions In A Row, Markets Close Mixed

November 19, 2024Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 120 points or 0.28%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 196 points or 1.04%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 23 points or 0.40%,
  • Gold $2,638 up $23.10 or 0.88%,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $70 up $0.37 or 0.53%,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.394 down 0.020 points or 0.453%,
  • USD index $106.19 down $0.08 or 0.08%,
  • Bitcoin $92,760 up $0,967 or 1.05%, (24 Hours), (New Bitcoin Historic high 92,911)

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing

Today’s Highlights

The major indexes closed mixed as Wall Street largely shrugged off concerns about potential nuclear escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The NASDAQ Composite was the standout performer with Nvidia playing a key role in boosting the NASDAQ, with its stock climbing nearly 5% following bullish analyst notes ahead of its earnings report on Wednesday. Earlier in the day, markets reacted to geopolitical tensions after Russia updated its nuclear doctrine. This led to initial gains in safe-haven assets like US bonds and gold. Bitcoin prices reached a new record above $93,500 per token. Treasury yields declined, with the 10-year yield falling about 4 basis points. Gold prices increased nearly 1%, trading above $2,600 per ounce.

Click here to read our current Economic Forecast – November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Privately owned housing units authorized by building permits in October 2024 were 7.7% below October 2023. Privately-owned housing starts is 4.0% below October 2023. Privately-owned housing completions 16.8% above October 2023. The number of finished but unsold new homes is at its highest level since 2009, when the market was still recovering from the global financial crisis. In the second graph below, the blue line is units under construction showing a decline in homes under construction. So it is important to reduce the amount of houses being constructed including those being permitted and starting construction – and in the second graph below you can see this happening.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Trump Administration to Fast-Track Self-Driving Car Regulations
  • Drill Baby Drill Returns as G20 Drops Fossil Fuel Phase-Out from Final Draft
  • Oil Prices Level Out Amid Production Outages and Russia/Ukraine Escalations
  • Escalation in Ukraine War Brings Back Geopolitical Risk in Oil
  • Europe’s Largest Oilfield Resumes Production After Power Outage
  • Nasdaq jumps 1% as Wall Street looks past Russia-Ukraine tensions, Nvidia shares surge: Live updates
  • Nvidia earnings are more important to the market than the Fed and jobs data, according to options market
  • Bitcoin rises to new record above $94,000: CNBC Crypto World
  • Super Micro shares soar 31% after company names new auditor to help keep Nasdaq listing
  • Netanyahu Signals Rejection Of Lebanon Truce: ‘Israel Will Continue To Operate Against Hezbollah’
  • Here’s what bond and gold traders are signaling about Russia’s nuclear shift
  • Treasury yields end at lowest in over a week after Putin signs new nuclear doctrine

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.