Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 288 points or 0.87%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.60%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.18%, (low 4,220)
• Gold $1,845 up $12.80,
• WTI crude oil settled at $83 up $0.57,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.795% up 0.079 points,
• USD Index $106.07 down $0.260,
• Bitcoin $27,980 up $484,
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -4 to 619 Canada -11 to 180

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The markets were hoping for small employment gains in expectation that the Fed would stop raising the federal funds rate but instead, the total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 336,000 in September 2023 with the unemployment rate unchanged at 3.8%. The largest job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (96,000); government (73,000); and health care (65,900). Any job gains over 150,000 is considered enough to provide jobs to those newly entering the workforce. The September employment gain was the second largest of 2023.

Interestingly, the household survey of the employment report showed only 90,000 employment gains against the headline establishment survey gain of 336,000 which throws into question the large gains of the establishment survey.

In August 2023, consumer credit decreased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.8%. Revolving credit increased at an annual rate of 13.9%, while nonrevolving credit decreased at an annual rate of 9.8%. I personally do not like the Federal Reserve’s methods for calculating changes in growth – I use year-over-year growth to remove the volatility. Using year-over-year methodology, consumer credit growth fell to 4.0% (blue line on the graph below), and adjusting for inflation growth was 2.0% year-over-year (red line on the graph below). The bottom line is that overall consumer credit is growing around the historical average, however, credit card (revolving credit) use has returned to the levels seen in the higher inflation periods of 1970s to 2000.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• WTO Forecasts Global Trade Slowdown Amid Economic Headwinds
• U.S. Oil Rigs Decrease for Second Week Running, Gas Rigs Rise
• Central Banks Continue To Boost Gold
• Oil Traders Should Be Weary Of A Bear Trap
• Russia Escalates War With Nuclear Tests And Civilian Killings
• Dow soars nearly 300 points Friday as stocks reverse sharp losses after hot jobs report: Live updates
• Here’s where the jobs are for September 2023 — in one chart
• Wall Street will seek confirmation inflation is easing in the week ahead after Friday’s jobs report
• 10-year Treasury yield rises after strong U.S. jobs report
• Market Extra: Why 5% bond yields could wreak havoc on the market
• Treasury yields are climbing: ‘There’s never really been such an attractive opportunity for fixed-income investments’

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 10 points or 0.03%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.12%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.13%, (low 4,226)
• Gold $1,835 down $0.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 down $1.73,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.712% down 0.023 points,
• USD Index $106.33 down $0.470,
• Bitcoin $27,475 down $175,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The labor shortage continues to hinder Main Street as 43% (seasonally adjusted) of all small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up three points from August. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:

Small business owners have spent the first three quarters of 2023 working to recruit and retain qualified employees for their businesses, but it still remains a top challenge. Owners continue to raise compensation to attract the right employees.

The goods and services deficit was $58.3 billion in August, down $6.4 billion from $64.7 billion in July. August exports were down 6.9% year-over-year. August imports were down 6.3% year-over-year. The graph below adjusts the import and export year-over-year values for inflation and deflation. The bottom line is that imports are telling us that consumer spending is weak.

In the week ending September 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 208,750, a decrease of 2,500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 250 from 211,000 to 211,250.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• Zirconium Nitride Outshines Platinum In Fuel Cell Performance
• The Rise Of Nuclear Power In The Middle East
• Argentina’s Oil Production Surges As Political Instability Soars
• India Warns That OPEC+ Oil Supply Cuts Could Have Unintended Consequences
• U.S. Shale Is Reluctant To Drill Despite Rising Oil Prices
• S&P 500 closes slightly lower as traders brace for Friday’s big jobs report: Live updates
• GM’s stock hits three-year low amid UAW strike, potential air bag recall
• Trust In Congress Below 20% Third Month In A Row
• As 75,000 Kaiser healthcare workers walk off the job, Tenet Healthcare could be next to face a strike
• Cathie Woods’ ETFs sold more than $25 million worth of Tesla stock

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 127 points or 0.39%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.35%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.81%, (low 4,110)
• Gold $1,838 down $3.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $85 down $4.50,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.720% down 0.082 points,
• USD Index $106.71 down $0.290,
• Bitcoin $27,654 up $375,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

ADP Private sector employment increased by 89,000 jobs in September 2023 and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year. We will see if the BLS employment report agrees on Friday – but the gain is worse than any month since January 2021.

In September 2023, the Institute of Supply Management Services PMI registered 53.6 percent, 0.9 percentage point lower than August. The composite index indicated growth in September for the ninth consecutive month after a reading of 49.2 percent in December 2022, which was the first contraction since June 2020 (45.4 percent). A reading below 55 indicates a slow economy.

New orders for manufactured goods in August 2023 improved 0.5% year-over-year – 0.6% inflation-adjusted. Manufacturing remains in the doldrums.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• U.S. Delays Aid To Ukraine Amid Domestic Political Disputes
• Battery Lifespan Could Double With New Breakthrough
• Investors Prioritize Profits Over Green Credentials
• Germany Reactivates Coal Plants For Winter Power Boost
• Oil Prices Tumble As The EIA Reports A Significant Gasoline Build
• OPEC+ Leaves Oil Production Levels Unchanged
• Dow adds 100 points to snap 3-day losing streak as Treasury yields ease from 16-year highs: Live updates
• GM secures new $6 billion credit line as UAW strike costs reach $200 million
• Economic Report: U.S. jobs report forecast: 170,000 new workers and 3.7% unemployment

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 431 points or 1.29%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.87%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.37%, (low 4,216)
• Gold $1,840 down $7.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $90 up $0.73,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.800% up 0.117 points,
• USD Index $107.01 up $0.110,
• Bitcoin $27,253 down $660,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI^™) for August 2023 increased by 3.7% year over year in August 2023 compared with August 2022. On a month-over-month basis, home prices rose by 0.3% compared with July 2023. Said Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic:

While continued mortgage rate increases challenge affordability across U.S. housing markets, home price growth is in line with typical seasonal averages, reflecting strong demand bolstered by a healthy labor market, strong wage growth and supporting demographic trends. Still, with a slower buying season ahead and the surging cost of homeownership, additional monthly price gains may taper off.

The number of job openings increased to 9.6 million on the last business day of August. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.9 million and 5.7 million, respectively. Within separations, quits (3.6 million) and layoffs and discharges (1.7 million) changed little. The bottom line is that the labor market is in a strange situation where the employment gains are moderating whilst unfilled jobs have changed little year-over-year. Obviously, the properly skilled people are not available. IMO this gap will be closed by automating the skilled tasks.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

• How Effective Are Electric Vehicles In Reducing Emissions?
• Offshore Wind Industry Hits Rough Waters Amid Rising Costs
• Budget Airlines Defy Travel Slowdown Concerns
• Coal Production Surges By 83% At India’s Largest Power Firm
• DOE Eyes Historic $1 Billion Loan To Kickstart U.S. Lithium Boom
• Production Pauses Hit Tesla’s Q3 Figures Harder Than Anticipated
• Dow loses more than 400 points and goes negative for 2023 as interest rates spike: Live updates
• Mortgage rate races toward 8% after hitting a high not seen since late 2000
• Krispy Kreme puts Insomnia Cookies brand up for sale as it doubles down on doughnuts
• GM sales jump 21% in the third quarter, Stellantis sees a drop
• Spiking yields weigh on homebuilder stocks, but their bonds are telling another story

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.