Mortgage Debt and Inflation: Part 3

October 15, 2023Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

The full data sets for the 71 years from 1952 to 2022 show no discernable association patterns (correlations) for Mortgage Debt growth and inflation changes.1  Thus, we started an analysis by looking specifically at the various regimes of inflation change during the 71-year timeline.  The most recent post2 analyzed the eight time periods over 71 years with positive inflation surges.  This article analyzes the five periods between 1952 and 2019 with negative inflation (disinflation/deflation) surges.


From an image by Harry Strauss from Pixabay.

Looking back at September for the World October 14, 2023 – Earth had its Warmest September Ever Since Reliable Data has been Available.

October 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites.

I added the below to what John Bateman provided.

 

This shows the temperature anomaly for the single month of September dating back to 1850. The increase this September is mind-boggling. Many believe that there were factors other than the steady increase in greenhouse gases and the onset of El Nino that caused this big increase which we also saw in recent months but the increase in September is shocking. Ignore 1886 as that is just an artifact from when I snipped this trend analysis. The oceans are warming also but we will address that at another time but it is significant. In the above, it is the surface temperature land and ocean which is shown. The warming of the layers of the ocean below the surface is of considerable concern.

 

 

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 14, 2023

October 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sat Oct 14 2023
Valid 12Z Sat Oct 14 2023 – 12Z Mon Oct 16 2023

…A low pressure system will bring unsettled weather from the upper
Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic region today…

…Windy but slowly improving weather expected across much of the eastern
U.S. on Sunday into Monday as the strong low pressure system moves off the
East Coast…

…Dry across much of the western half of the country but rainy along
coastal Pacific Northwest and northern California…

Dancing Queens & Kings: Call for Participation (5)

Dancing Queens & Kings: Call for Participation (5)

October 14, 2023Posted inUncategorizedNo Comments

My forthcoming book “Dancing Queens & Kings” is calling for participation. The only requirement is that you have competed at the USDC or OSB (2023 inclusive), with an interesting story to tell. Below is the timeline:

  • 11/30/2023: 1 page highlighting your compelling story in pro/am ballroom dancing.
  • 12/31/2023: 8-page full story.
  • 3/31/2024: Book review by Sam Sodano.
  • 5/31/2024: Publication at Amazon.

I am looking for 50 stories and will accept up to 60 submissions of 1 page (1st come, 1st accepted). After your 1 page is accepted, your 8-page is almost guaranteed to be included in the book unless it is so poorly written that it is totally unsalvageable.

13 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Friday The Thirteenth An Unlucky Session For Wall Street As Investors Watch Equities Suffer

October 13, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 39 points or 0.12%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.23%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.50%, (low 4,328)
  • Gold $1,941 up $58.30,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $88 up $4.72,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.623% down 0.088 points,
  • USD Index $106.62 up $0.030,
  • Bitcoin $26,758 up $45,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. +3 to 622 Canada +13 to 193

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Export and import prices continue to deflate. Prices for U.S. imports declined 1.7 percent for the year ending in September 2023, whilst U.S. exports decreased 4.1 percent over the past year. This makes some sense as international trade is flat.

University of Michigan preliminary consumer sentiment fell back about 7% this October following two consecutive months of very little change. Assessments of personal finances declined about 15%, primarily on a substantial increase in concerns over inflation, and one-year expected business conditions plunged about 19%. However, long-run expected business conditions are little changed, suggesting that consumers believe the current worsening in economic conditions will not persist. Nearly all demographic groups posted setbacks in sentiment, reflecting the continued weight of high prices.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • JPMorgan CEO Dimon: World Is Facing Most Dangerous Time In Decades
  • U.S. Oil Drillers Add 4 Rigs, Brent Crude Hits $90
  • The U.S. Allocates $7 Billion Of Grants To Hydrogen Production Hubs
  • Desperate And Incompetent: Hamas May Have Acted Alone
  • Oil Prices Rally As The U.S. Enforces Sanctions On Russian Exports
  • Israel-Hamas war live updates: Civilians scramble to flee north Gaza ahead of expected Israeli ground offensive
  • S&P 500 closes lower on Friday, but notches second straight positive week: Live updates
  • Pharmacy staff from Walgreens, other chains could stage nationwide walkout and rallies in coming weeks
  • Crypto’s role in the Israel-Hamas war comes under scrutiny: CNBC Crypto World
  • Economists Warn Of “Bigger” Middle East War, But Yellen Downplays Its Economic Impact
  • Market Snapshot: Dow turns lower as U.S. stocks fall amid Middle East tensions
  • Bond Report: 10-, 30-year yields have biggest weekly drops in months as investors flock to safety on Middle East tensions

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its ENSO Alert on October 12, 2023 – The El Nino Advisory Continues. In a Week, NOAA Will Update us on how this Impacts U.S. Weather

October 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the second Thursday of every month, NOAA (really their Climate Prediction Center CPC) issues its analysis of the status of ENSO. This includes determining the Alert System Status.  NOAA again describes their conclusion as “ENSO Alert System Status: El Nino Advisory”

There is not much doubt that we have an El Nino. How long it lasts and its strength remains to be seen. NOAA may be more conservative compared to some other Weather Advisory Organizations. That is concerning as some of the other Weather Advisory Organizations are predicting a “Historically Strong” El Nino.

We have included an interesting ENSO Blog article by Emily Becker and a link to a fairly comprehensive article we wrote on El Nino back in September.

CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER ENSO DISCUSSION

The second paragraph is what is important:

“The most recent IRI plume favors El Niño to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring 2024.  Also considering recent observations and the NMME, the team favors at least a “strong” event with a 75-85% chance through November-January (≥1.5C for the seasonal average in Niño-3.4).  There is a 3 in 10 chance of a “historically strong” event that rivals 2015-16 and 1997-98 (seasonal average ≥ 2.0C).  Stronger El Niño events increase the likelihood of El Niño-related climate anomalies, but do not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally.  Consider consulting CPC seasonal outlooks for probabilities of temperature and precipitation in the coming seasons.  In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring (with an 80% chance during March-May 2024).”

Below is the middle paragraph from the discussion last month. We see that this month there is a substantial chance of a “historically strong” event.

“The most recent IRI plume indicates El Niño will persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2023-24.  Despite nearly the same ensemble mean amplitude as last month, the shorter forecast horizon means that the odds of at least a “strong” El Niño (≥1.5C for the November-January seasonal average in Niño-3.4) have increased to 71%.  However, a strong El Niño does not necessarily equate to strong impacts locally, with the odds of related climate anomalies often lower than the chances of El Niño itself (e.g., CPC’s seasonal outlooks).  In summary, El Niño is anticipated to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter (with greater than 95% chance through January – March 2024; ).”

We now provide additional detail but I am keeping this article shorter than usual because nothing much has changed since last month.

CPC Probability Distribution

Here are the new forecast probabilities. This information in the past has been released twice a month and the first release is based on a survey of Meteorologists, the second is based on model results. The probabilities are for three-month periods e.g. ASO stands for August/September/October. The approach may have changed as IRI (The International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University Climate School) may no longer be involved.  Their website has not been updated this month.

Here is the current release of the probabilities:

You can clearly see the forecast does not extend beyond MJJ 2024 and one does see a tail-off in the probabilities for El Nino conditions in the Eastern Pacific after the winter season.

Here is the forecast from late last month.

The analysis this month and last month are pretty similar.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 13 2023

October 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Oct 13 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 13 2023 – 12Z Sun Oct 15 2023

…Potent low pressure system continues to spread heavy rain and severe
weather across the north-central Plains to the Midwest today…

…Some heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms expected to slide across the
Pennsylvania and northern Mid-Atlantic on Saturday/early Sunday as the low
re-intensifies near the Mid-Atlantic coast Saturday night/early Sunday…

12 Oct 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Stocks Take A Nosedive Mid Session As Rising Rate Fears Spook Traders And Close Moderately In The Red After Recovering From Fall

October 12, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 174 points or 0.51%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.63%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.62%, (low 4,325)
  • Gold $1,882 down $5.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $83 down $0.07,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.709% up 0.114 points,
  • USD Index $106.57 up $0.750,
  • Bitcoin $26,709 down $55,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for October 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose over the last 12 months 3.7% (blue line on the graph below) whilst the CPI-U less food and energy rose 4.1% over the last 12 months (red line on the graph below). I was expecting higher numbers and the BLS suggests inflation levels are being sustained by higher shelter and gasoline.

In the week ending October 7, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial unemployment claims 4-week moving average was 206,250, a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 208,750 to 209,250.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Oil Defies Odds, Races Towards Annual Production Record
  • UAW’s Standoff With Big Three Automakers Intensifies
  • Oil Moves Down On Massive Inventory Build
  • France Tightens Energy-Saving Measures To Avoid Another Crisis
  • Getting to 2% inflation won’t be easy. This is what will need to happen, and it might not be pretty
  • Dow closes more than 150 points lower as inflation data reignites interest rate fears: Live updates
  • Bitcoin’s resilience above $25,000 is a ‘silver lining’ in grim crypto market, says Wolfe Research
  • Israel-Hamas war live updates: Britain orders deployment of military assets to Mediterranean; at least 27 Americans killed
  • Mortgage rates near 8%, an ‘inventory crisis’: Homebuyers face a ‘tricky’ market, expert says
  • Household Budgets Are “On Thin Ice”
  • Mark Hulbert: The stock market likes to climb a wall of worry — but now that’s crumbling

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Crop Report October 12, 2023 – Things are looking fairly good. But this can change.

October 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the October 11, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending October 8, 2023.  The full USDA Crop Bulletin can be accessed HERE

It seems like perhaps a little better than an average crop which is very good considering the late and poor start.  But we are concerned about the Frost/Freeze warning although it is covering a small area than what was forecast for last week.

This article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions which are generally favorable. I also included U.S. crop-related weather forecasts. And there is a report on peanut prices.

We first take a look at the frost/Freeze and other warnings.

The following shows how complex weather patterns can be.

Now on to the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 12, 2023

October 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Oct 12 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 12 2023 – 12Z Sat Oct 14 2023

…Significant weather system to bring heavy rainfall, severe weather, and
even higher elevation snow from the Rockies into the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes…

…Heavy rain/flash flooding and severe weather likely to continue into
Thursday for parts of the Gulf Coast and northern Florida…