18 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened significantly Down, Session Saw Mostly Trading Along The Unchanged Line And Closing Mixed

August 18, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 26 points or 0.07%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.20%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.01%,
  • Gold $1,919 up $3.40,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $0.89,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.247% down 0.061 points,
  • USD Index $103.42 down $0.150,
  • Bitcoin $26,082 down $1,779,
  • Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -12 to 642 Canada -1 to 189

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

No releases today.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Rig Count Decline Accelerates Amid Rising U.S. Crude Oil Production
  • Bitcoin Crashes Amid A Wave Of Bearish News
  • LNG Tanker Prices Soar Earlier Than Usual Ahead Of Winter
  • China’s Oil Giant CNOOC Sees Profits Drop 11% On Lower Prices
  • China’s Economic Woes Hurt Diesel Demand
  • Nasdaq falls a fourth day in a row, notches longest weekly losing streak since December: Live updates
  • Bitcoin fell through a key level and is giving a bearish signal. Here’s what chart analysts say happens next
  • Automakers are finally embracing lidar sensors. A few startups look like market-share winners
  • ChatGPT ‘Politically Biased Toward Left’ In The US & Beyond: New Research Finds
  • Crypto: Bitcoin’s tumble: Here’s what may have sparked selloff — and why it may spell trouble for other assets

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

NOAA Updates its Four Season Outlook on August 17, 2023

August 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

On the third Thursday of the month right on schedule NOAA issued their updated Seasonal Outlook which I describe as their Four-Season Outlook because it extends a bit more than one year into the future. The information released also included the Mid-Month Outlook for the following month plus the weather and drought outlook for the next three months.  I present the information issued by NOAA and try to add context to it. It is quite a challenge for NOAA to address the subsequent month, the subsequent three-month period as well as the twelve successive three-month periods for a year or a bit more. A seasonal drought outlook is also issued.

Take a look at September and the three-month period that includes September. The first row in this graphic is the Mid-Month forecast for September. The bottom row shows the outlook for the next three months including September.

The full NOAA Seasonal Outlook extends through August/September/October of 2024. All the maps are in the body of the article.

NOAA provides an excellent discussion to support the maps and the changes (which are minimal) from what was issued a month ago.  It is best to read the full discussion but here are some of the highlights:

Re ENSO:

  • The median North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) consolidation forecast exceeds +1.5 degrees C at its peak in late autumn and early winter before decreasing at longer leads with greater uncertainty.
  • The CPC consensus ENSO outlook indicates greater than a 90 percent chance that El Niño will continue through winter, with greater than a 60 percent chance that the strength of the Niño 3.4 anomaly will exceed +1.5 degrees C at its peak.

[Editor’s Note: How do we define the strength of El Nino? It is very informal but over 1.0 is considered moderate versus weak, over 1.5 is considered strong and over 2.0 is considered very strong.) It is a logical approach since the warmer the temperature anomaly the more we expect the Walker Circulation to be impacted. But it does not work out that way in all cases for all areas and some think the rate of change of the Nino 3.4 reading is also very important]

For September:

  • Above normal temperatures are favored for most of the western CONUS, consistent with anomalous ridging.
  • The strongest probabilities (greater than 50 percent) of above-normal temperatures are indicated near the Four Corners region.
  • However, probabilities of warmer than normal conditions are tempered across much of the northwestern CONUS for the weeks 3-4 period, which includes most of the first half of September. [Editors’ Note: Remember this Outlook was issued on August 17 so three to four weeks from then is early September]
  • Farther to the south and east, enhanced above-normal temperature probabilities are indicated across the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley, and parts of the Southeast.
  • Equal chances (EC) of above, near, and below normal temperatures are indicated for the remainder of the eastern CONUS.
  • Above-normal temperatures are favored for southern, eastern, and northern Alaska.
  • Above-normal precipitation is favored across the Southeast northward to the Mid-Atlantic and westward to parts of the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
  • Conversely, below-normal precipitation is favored farther to the north and west for the western Great Lakes and Upper Mississippi Valley
  • Latest weeks 3-4 guidance from the ECMWF and GEFS depict a wet signal across the Baja Peninsula and the Gulf of California, suggestive of potential tropical cyclone (TC) activity. This potential TC activity leads to a slight tilt toward above-normal precipitation for parts of the southwestern CONUS.
  • Farther to the north, above-normal precipitation is favored for western Alaska
  • A weak tilt toward below-normal precipitation is indicated for Southeast Alaska due to weeks 3-4 guidance

For SON 2023

  • Above-normal temperatures are favored across Alaska and the western CONUS in the SON and OND 2024 temperature outlooks.
  • The greatest probabilities exceed 50 percent for northern Alaska and parts of the Southwest, due to decadal trends.
  • Above-normal temperatures are also favored eastward across the southern Contiguous United States (CONUS) into the Southeast and northward through the eastern CONUS into the eastern Great Lakes region, consistent with the consolidation of tools.
  • Decadal trends lead to higher probabilities of above-normal temperatures over the Northeast.
  • Potential El Niño impacts for the SON and OND seasons include cooler temperatures over much of the central CONUS, leading to weaker probabilities for above-normal temperatures
  • During SON 2023, above-normal precipitation is favored for western and northern Alaska and the southeastern CONUS,
  • Below-normal precipitation is favored for the Pacific Northwest, a small area of the Southwest, and the western Great Lakes region.
  • Enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation for parts of Alaska are supported by dynamical and statistical tools.
  • Below-normal precipitation for the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes and above-normal precipitation for the Southeast are consistent with El Niño impacts, and largely persist through the next several leads.
  • Below-normal precipitation for parts of the Southwest in the SON season is consistent with the persistence of a weaker-than-normal Southwest monsoon, while the outlook for the month of September favors above-normal precipitation in areas of southern California, Nevada and Arizona to the west due to shorter-term moisture flow from the East Pacific.

Beyond SON 2023:

  • From the NDJ 2023-24 to the FMA 2024 seasons, as the leads extend through autumn into winter, increasing probabilities of above-normal temperatures are forecast from the Pacific Northwest across the northern tier of the CONUS into the Midwest and Northeast, consistent with increasing impacts of a strengthening El Niño.
  • Equal chances of above, near, and below normal temperatures (EC) is forecast across the southern tier of the CONUS with a tendency towards cooler temperatures arising from El Niño impacts.
  • For MAM 2024 and longer leads through SON 2024, the outlooks relied heavily on the ENSO-OCN tool, and decadal trends provide most of the available climate signals.
  • The seasonal temperature outlooks evolve toward a similar pattern at the longest leads (MAM 2024 through SON 2024), and the forecasts generally depict a u-shaped pattern of enhanced probabilities of above-normal temperatures over the CONUS, and EC in the northern central CONUS into the central Mississippi valley.
  • Below-normal precipitation is forecast across much of the northern tier of the CONUS from parts of the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes region from NDJ 2023-24 to FMA 2024, due to the expected strengthening El Niño.
  • The enhanced probabilities of above-normal precipitation for the Southeast increase and extend westward incrementally across the Southern Plains into the Southwest for these leads, also consistent with a strengthening El Niño.
  • For the MAM 2024 season and longer leads, areas of above- and below-normal precipitation coincide with signals due to decadal trends, including enhanced probabilities for below-normal precipitation in areas of the northwestern CONUS and enhanced probabilities for above-normal precipitation in the lower Mississippi Valley and Mid-Atlantic region.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 18, 2023

August 18, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Fri Aug 18 2023
Valid 12Z Fri Aug 18 2023 – 12Z Sun Aug 20 2023

…Heavy rainfall and flash flooding becoming more likely over parts of
the Southwest…

…Critical fire conditions expected from the Northwest to the northern
High Plains today…

…Dangerous heat redeveloping over the central U.S…..

 

17 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Markets Opened Higher, Then Trended Down Sharply For Another Session Closing In The Red

August 17, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 291 points or 0.84%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.17%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.77%,
  • Gold $1,919 down $8.80,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $0.70,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.288% up 0.030 points,
  • USD Index $103.43 up $0.001,
  • Bitcoin $27,870 down $1,212,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Manufacturing activity in the region expanded overall according to the August 2023 Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey’s indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments were all positive for the first time since May 2022. This is in sharp contrast to other regional surveys which show manufacturing in a recession.

In the week ending August 12, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims 4-week moving average was 234,250, an increase of 2,750 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 231,000 to 231,500.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the U.S. declined by 0.4 percent in July 2023 to 105.8 (2016=100), following a decline of 0.7 percent in June. The LEI is down 4.0 percent over the six-month period between January and July 2023—a slight deterioration from its 3.7 percent contraction over the previous six months (July 2022 to January 2023).  Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators, at The Conference Board stated:

The US LEI—which tracks where the economy is heading—fell for the sixteenth consecutive month in July, signaling the outlook remains highly uncertain. On the other hand, the coincident index (CEI)—which tracks where economic activity stands right now—has continued to grow slowly but inconsistently, with three of the past six months not changing and the rest increasing. As such, the CEI is signaling that we are currently still in a favorable growth environment. However, in July, weak new orders, high-interest rates, a dip in consumer perceptions of the outlook for business conditions, and decreasing hours worked in manufacturing fueled the leading indicator’s 0.4 percent decline. The leading index continues to suggest that economic activity is likely to decelerate and descend into mild contraction in the months ahead. The Conference Board now forecasts a short and shallow recession in the Q4 2023 to Q1 2024 timespan.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Saudi Aramco Tops Profit Chart, Leaving Tech Titans In Its Wake
  • Citigroup Says To Short Oil After Summer Is Over
  • Turkey’s Appetite For Gold Increases As Lira Plummets
  • Brazil Looks To Introduce Emissions Cap
  • WoodMac: Fivefold Annual Jump In Global Offshore Wind Is “Unrealistic”
  • Former Tesla Employees Raise $26 Billion For New Energy Startups
  • Dow tumbles nearly 300 points as stocks fall for a third straight day and yields pop: Live updates
  • Three ways Walmart and Target are diverging as consumers watch their wallets
  • House Republicans subpoena Citibank over info shared with FBI after Jan. 6
  • 10-year yield rises to highest level since October 2022
  • ‘Streamflation’ Bites As Searches To Cancel Hulu And Disney+ Erupt Nationwide
  • Bond Report: 10- and 30-year Treasury yields end at their highest levels since 2007 and 2011

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Crop Report August 17, 2023 – Corn and Soybeans have made remarkable recoveries.

August 17, 2023Posted inagriculture, weatherNo Comments

This article is based primarily on the August 15, 2023, USDA Crop Bulletin which covers the week ending August 13, 2023. The USDA report usually becomes available on Tuesdays. I have omitted a number of graphics that are available in the full USDA Crop Bulletin which can be accessed HERE.

It now seems like an average crop especially given the recovery of the corn and soybean crops as the drought in the important growing area for those two crops let up.

The article includes a short international review of agricultural conditions. I wanted to include a report on technology use in farming but the August version does not come out until later today so I will add it then.

We begin with the National Agriculture Summary.  The Tables below the summary have additional data. The boxes with my comments may be incomplete so for crops of interest check the data out yourself to be sure.

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 17, 2023

August 17, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Thu Aug 17 2023
Valid 12Z Thu Aug 17 2023 – 12Z Sat Aug 19 2023

…Hot/record temperatures to shift focus out of the Northwest and into
the central U.S.; Critical Risk of Fire Weather in the Northwest…

…Showers, thunderstorms, and an increasing risk of flash flooding for
the Southwest...

…Scattered shower and thunderstorm chances continue along the East
Coast…

 

16 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street’s Major Indexes Trended Down After The Opening Bell To close Sharply Down After Fed’s Negative Comments

August 16, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 181 points or 0.52%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.15%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.76%,
  • Gold $1,923 down $12.20,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $1.79,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.270% up 0.047 points,
  • USD Index $103.49 up $0.28,
  • Bitcoin $29,100 down $55,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

In July 2023, total industrial production declined 0.2% year-over-year. Components manufacturing declined 0.7% year-over-year, mining was up 2.9% year-over-year, whilst utilities declined 0.9% year-over-year. Capacity utilization moved up to 79.3 percent in July, a rate that is 0.4 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2022) average. Overall, industrial production remains in a recession and is little changed over the last 5 months.

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in July 2023 were 13.0% below July 2022. Housing starts were up 5.9% year-over-year. Housing completions were down 11.8 % year-over-year. It appears new housing is beginning to break out of its recession.

Today, the Federal Reserve released the minutes for the FOMC meeting which ended on 26 July 2023. Interesting statements in the minutes:

… tighter credit conditions for households and businesses were likely to weigh on economic activity, hiring, and inflation. However, participants agreed that the extent of these effects remained uncertain. Against this background, the Committee remained highly attentive to inflation risks.

… Participants commented that monetary policy tightening appeared to be working broadly as intended and that a continued gradual slowing in real GDP growth would help reduce demand–supply imbalances in the economy. Participants assessed that the ongoing tightening of credit conditions in the banking sector, as evidenced in the most recent surveys of banks, also would likely weigh on economic activity in coming quarters.

… Participants judged that, over coming quarters, firms would reduce the pace of their investment spending and hiring in response to tight financial conditions and the slowing of economic activity.

… They noted evidence that labor demand was easing—including declines in job openings, lower quits rates, more part-time work, slower growth in hours worked, higher unemployment insurance claims, and more moderate rates of nominal wage growth. In addition, they remarked on indications of increasing labor supply, including a further rise in the prime-age participation rate to a post-pandemic high.

… Participants cited a number of tentative signs that inflation pressures could be abating. These signs included some softening in core goods prices, lower online prices, evidence that firms were raising prices by smaller amounts than previously, slower increases in shelter prices, and recent declines in survey estimates of shorter-term inflation expectations and of inflation uncertainty.

… With inflation still well above the Committee’s longer-run goal and the labor market remaining tight, most participants continued to see significant upside risks to inflation, which could require further tightening of monetary policy. Some participants commented that even though economic activity had been resilient and the labor market had remained strong, there continued to be downside risks to economic activity and upside risks to the unemployment rate; these included the possibility that the macroeconomic effects of the tightening in financial conditions since the beginning of last year could prove more substantial than anticipated. A number of participants judged that, with the stance of monetary policy in restrictive territory, risks to the achievement of the Committee’s goals had become more two sided, and it was important that the Committee’s decisions balance the risk of an inadvertent overtightening of policy against the cost of an insufficient tightening.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Gas Prices Hit Year High As Market Tightens
  • Energy Transfer LP To Acquire Crestwood Equity Partners In $7B Deal
  • Lula Aide Signals It’s Okay For Petrobras To Pursue Amazon Drilling
  • Tesla Reignites Price War With More Cuts In China
  • Fed officials see ‘upside risks’ to inflation possibly leading to more rate hikes, minutes show
  • Aldi to acquire Winn-Dixie and Harveys Supermarket stores in Southern expansion
  • Appeals court imposes restrictions on abortion pill, but drug will stay on the market for now
  • Target Pride backlash adds to sales woes as culture wars rage in corporate America
  • FOMC Minutes Signal Hawkish Fed Fears “Significant Upside Risks To Inflation”
  • Inflation slows to 6.8% but flights and hotels keep prices high
  • Movers & Shakers: Intel and Tower Semiconductor shares fall, Target’s stock gains, and more stocks on the move
  • Bond Report: 10-year Treasury yield ends at 15-year high after Fed’s July minutes

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Looking Back at the Global Climate in July 2013 – This past July seems to have been the warmest July on record.

August 16, 2023Posted inClimate, weatherNo Comments

Please note the title was meant to be Looking Back at the Global Climate in July 2023, not July 2013.

Every month, John Bateman sends me a nice email. Actually, he sends me two: one about the U.S. and one about the world.  I have already published an article based on his U.S.-focused email and you can find it HERE. Two days ago he sent me the email for the world. Since they are emails, I usually can not provide a link to what he sent me. He is a spokesperson (not sure that is the right description of his job) for NOAA both NCEI and other parts of NOAA.  For this monthly article, all of the information in his email comes from the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information so the information he includes in his email and much more can be found HERE.

Since he is a very good writer I use a lot but not all of his material and supplement it with some additional material from the NCEI website or other NOAA websites. I have not indicated what I took from his letter and what I added but if someone has questions on that I can explain it.

Obviously the headline this month is that it looks like July has been the warmest July since this data has been collected.

This is the record of July-only land and ocean temperature anomalies and this July appears to have set a new record high. It is just speculation on my part but I think it is the stepwise rise in temperature we get with an El Nino.

 

Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted August 16, 2023

August 16, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Aug 16 2023 – 12Z Fri Aug 18 2023

…Dangerous Heat Wave continues over the Pacific Northwest/Northern
Rockies as heat builds back in over Texas Thursday…

…Severe thunderstorms possible for the Upper Midwest Wednesday…

…Showers, thunderstorms, and isolated flash flooding will continue
across the Four Corners region…

 

15 Aug 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: The Dow Opened 300 Points Down With The Nasdaq And SP 500 Following Suit Percentage Wise, Trading Mostly Sideways Falling Further At The Close

August 15, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed down 361 points or 1.02%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 1.14%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 1.16%,
  • Gold $1,935 down $9.50,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $12 down $1.50,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.213% up 0.031 points,
  • USD Index $103.21 up $0.02,
  • Bitcoin $29,152 down $161,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

This summer, employers added 1,034,000 the lowest total for the summer months since 2010 when 960,000 teen jobs were added, according to an analysis of the latest non-seasonally adjusted figures from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from global outplacement and business and executive coaching firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc.

Prices for U.S. imports in July 2023 rose to -4.4% year-over-year from -6.1% last month. Export prices rose from -11.9% year-over-year last month to -7.9% in July 2023. Overall export / import prices are deflating. The rise in import prices is attributable to increases in petroleum prices whilst export price increases were driven my agriculture products.

Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for July 2023 were up 3.2% year-over-year (blue line on the graph below). Inflation-adjusted sales (red line on the graph below) are up 1.4% year-over-year. Retail sales seem to be modestly improving but remain weak.

The August 2023 Empire State Manufacturing Survey index fell twenty points to -19.0. New orders and shipments fell significantly. The recession in manufacturing seems to be continuing.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • U.S. Shale Oil Production Growth Getting Increasingly Difficult: Report
  • U.S. Pipeline Gas Exports To Mexico Hit A Record-High
  • Recycling Breakthrough Makes Plastic Waste A High-Value Commodity
  • Libya’s Oil Output Threatened As Intense Fighting Breaks Out In Tripoli
  • Dow slides more than 300 points, breaking a 3-day win streak, as bank names tumble: Live updates
  • Regional banks slide after Fed’s Kashkari advocates ‘significantly further’ capital regulation
  • Fitch warns it may be forced to downgrade dozens of banks, including JPMorgan Chase
  • Homebuilder sentiment drops sharply, as mortgage rates surge over 7%
  • Silver Price Inexcusably Low Given The Market Dynamics
  • Turley: The Fourth Indictment Of Donald Trump & The Criminalization Of Election Controversies
  • Futures Movers: U.S. oil price ends nearly 2% lower on China worries
  • MarketWatch: On the streets of San Francisco, will robotaxis run amok or aground?

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.