Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 168 points or 0.48%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.11%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
• Gold $1,967 down $6.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $84 up $1.87,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.100% down 0.018 points,
• USD Index $103.62 up $0.460,
• Bitcoin $26,100 down $1,102,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, 40% (seasonally adjusted) of small business owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, down two points from last month and the lowest level since February 2021. Seasonally adjusted, a net 36% of owners reported raising compensation in August, tying June’s reading, and marking the lowest reading since May 2021. A net 26% of owners plan to raise compensation in the next three months, up five points from July. Bill Dunkelberg, NFIB Chief Economist stated:

More small business owners are planning to increase compensation in the next three months as unfilled job openings slipped in August. Even as openings fell on Main Street, owners are actively working to retain current employees and attract qualified applicants.

U.S.-based employers announced 75,151 cuts in August, a 217% increase from the 23,697 cuts announced one month prior. It is 267% higher than the 20,485 cuts announced in the same month in 2022, According to Challenger: “Job openings are falling, and American workers are more reluctant to leave their positions right now. The job market is resetting after the pandemic and post-pandemic hiring frenzy. Job openings are falling, and American workers are more reluctant to leave their positions right now. The job market is resetting after the pandemic and post-pandemic hiring frenzy.”

Real Disposable personal income (DPI) for July 2023 declined to 3.8% increase year-over-year (blue line on the graph below) and real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) moved up to 3.0% increase year-over-year (red line on the graph below). The price index which measures inflation for personal consumption expenditures INCREASED to 3.3% growth year-over-year (green line on the graph below. The price index for personal consumption expenditures excluding food and energy likewise grew to 4.1% year-over-year. Like I have been predicting, inflation is no longer falling but will be rising in the coming months.

CoreLogic reports that for the month of June, 2.6% of all mortgages in the U.S. were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due, including those in foreclosure), representing a 0.3 percentage point decrease compared with 2.9% in June 2022 and unchanged from May 2023.

• Early-Stage Delinquencies (30 to 59 days past due): 1.3%, up from 1.2% in June 2022
• Adverse Delinquency (60 to 89 days past due): 0.4%, up from 0.3% in June 2022.
• Serious Delinquency (90 days or more past due, including loans in foreclosure): 1%, down from 1.3% in June 2022 and a high of 4.3% in August 2020.
• Foreclosure Inventory Rate (the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process): 0.3%, unchanged from June 2022.
• Transition Rate (the share of mortgages that transitioned from current to 30 days past due): 0.6%, down from 0.7% in June 2022.

In the week ending August 26, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted unemployment initial claims 4-week moving average was 237,500, an increase of 250 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised up by 500 from 236,750 to 237,250.

The Chicago Business Barometer rose to 48.7 in August of 2023 from 42.8 in July. The reading marked the 12th consecutive month of contraction in business activity in the Chicago region but the smallest in the current sequence that began in September 2022.

 

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Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 38 points or 0.11%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.54%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.38%,
• Gold $1,972 up $6.60,
• WTI crude oil settled at $82 up $0.44,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.118% down 0.004 points,
• USD Index $103.02 down $0.330,
• Bitcoin $27,255 down $606,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Private sector employment increased by 177,000 jobs in August and annual pay was up 5.9 percent year-over-year, according to the August ADP National Employment Report. 177,000 job growth is higher than normal new workers entering the workforce – but continues to slow. Nela Richardson, ADP chief economist stated:

This month’s numbers are consistent with the pace of job creation before the pandemic, After two years of exceptional gains tied to the recovery, we’re moving toward more sustainable growth in pay and employment as the economic effects of the pandemic recede.

The second estimate of real gross domestic product (GDP) in 2Q2023 increased at an annual rate of 2.1 percent – down from 2.4% in the advance estimate. This is little changed In the first quarter, real GDP increased 2.0 percent. I prefer to analyze year-over-year growth as the primary metric for GDP which increased to 2.5% (blue line in the graph below). The good news is that inflation continues to abate as the implicit price deflator moderated to 3.5% year-over-year (red line on the graph below).

The National Association of REALTORS Pending home sales fell by 14.0% year-over-year in July 2023 – but is a significant improvement over the declines seen over the past year. You should expect continued improvement as the data is being compared to the terrible data over the past year. Pending Home Sales is a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

The small gain in contract signings shows the potential for further increases in light of the fact that many people have lost out on multiple home buying offers. Jobs are being added and, thereby, enlarging the pool of prospective home buyers. However, rising mortgage rates and limited inventory have temporarily hindered the possibility of buying for many.

 

• Energy Storage Sector Gears Up For Explosive Growth
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• Shipping Woes Ease As Rates Drop To Pre-Pandemic Levels
• Oil Rises After EIA Confirms Major Crude Draw
• S&P 500 rises for a fourth straight day, major averages curtail monthly losses in late August hot streak
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• HHS calls for easing restrictions on marijuana, sending cannabis stocks higher
• Grayscale CEO lays out next steps after ‘huge victory’ against SEC: CNBC Crypto World
• Mitch McConnell appears to freeze again, in another health scare for Senate’s top Republican

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 293 points or 0.85%,
• Nasdaq closed up 1.74%,
• S&P 500 closed up 1.45%,
• Gold $1,966 up $19.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $81 up $1.11,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.114% down 0.098 points,
• USD Index $103.43 down $0.630,
• Bitcoin $27,853 up $1,880,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for September 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price 20-City Composite posted a year-over-year loss of -1.2%, up from -1.7% in the previous month. According to Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist at CoreLogic:

While home prices have shown a lot of strength so far in 2023, elevated mortgage rates are making it difficult for many potential buyers to purchase properties, which will likely keep a lid on additional gains for the rest of the year. Nevertheless, home prices are still expected to continue to reaccelerate and reach mid-single-digit growth rate by the year’s end. Across price tiers, the high tier continued to show relative weakness, -2.6% year over year, the fourth month of annual declines and similar to trends observed in CoreLogic’s Single-Family Rent Index. This trend may reflect the greater mobility of higher-income households during the pandemic, which has since slowed. In addition, the surge in demand for luxury and second homes seen in 2021 and 2022 also contracted relatively more since the increase in mortgage rates and stalling home sales

The number of job openings edged down to 8.8 million on the last business day of July, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the month, the number of hires and total separations changed little at 5.8 million and 5.5 million, respectively. Still, there remain many unfilled job openings which should continue to drive strong job growth in the months to come.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined in August to 106.1 (1985=100), from a downwardly revised 114.0 in July. Expectations were a hair above 80—the level that historically signals a recession within the next year. Although consumer fears of an impending recession continued to recede, The Conference Board still anticipates one is likely before yearend. Dana Peterson, Chief Economist at The Conference Board stated:

Consumer confidence fell in August 2023, erasing back-to-back increases in June and July. August’s disappointing headline number reflected dips in both the current conditions and expectations indexes. Write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular. The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups—and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000. Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.

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Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 213 points or 0.62%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.84%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.63%,
• Gold $1,948 up $7.90,
• WTI crude oil settled at $80 up $0.30,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.204% down 0.035 points,
• USD Index $104.02 down $0.060,
• Bitcoin $25,984 down $134,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

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Click here to read our Economic Forecast for August 2023

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Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Dallas Fed’s Texas factory activity contracted again in August 2023with the production index falling six points to -11.2 — its lowest level since May 2020. The new orders sub-index has been in negative territory for more than a year and posted a reading of -15.8, up slightly from July.  Manufacturing sector remains in a recession in the U.S.

 

• Russia-Ukraine War Shifts To Black Sea Oil
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• Dow closes 200 points higher as Wall Street aims to curtail August’s decline: Live updates
• Bitcoin trading volume is at its lowest in more than four years
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• Commodities Corner: Citgo warns of fuel contamination at Tampa terminal as Tropical Storm Idalia looks to hit Florida’s Gulf Coast as a hurricane

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.