Fifth National Climate Assessment November 15, 2023. Part I The Announcement.

November 15, 2023Posted inClimateNo Comments
 Erratum:

Mea culpa. I know that this is a 4 – 5 year event but I was not thinking clearly when I created the title.  As of 11:40 p.m. EST November 22, 2023, the title is now corrected. One wonders why the U.S. Climate Assessment occurs every 4 – 5 years when the IPCC report is issued every 7 years. I do not know the answer to that question.  Nothing else in this article has been changed.

I was not expecting this to arrive today.  But this is not a new endeavor. I think it was mainly a NASA project in the past but I may be wrong about that. Now it is:

And they are well funded.

Global Warming is expensive that is for sure.

I will report on this Climate Assessment even though I consider it to be more political than scientific. But I am not saying that the science in the report is not accurate.

HERE is the link to the full report.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 15, 2023

November 15, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Wed Nov 15 2023
Valid 12Z Wed Nov 15 2023 – 12Z Fri Nov 17 2023

…Heavy rainfall and locally significant urban flash flooding will be a
major concern today and tonight for southeast Florida…

…Locally heavy snowfall expected today across portions of the Northern
Rockies…

…Unsettled weather remains in the forecast across much of California…

…Dry and mild conditions will continue across the Intermountain West,
Plains, and Midwest while gradually expanding toward the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast over the next couple of days…

14Nov2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: S&P Has A Great Day. Stocks Soar Riding On Improving Inflation Data

November 14, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 490 points or 1.43%,
  • Nasdaq closed up 2.37%,
  • S&P 500 closed up 1.91%,
  • Gold $1966 up $17,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.01,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.455% down 0.178 points,
  • USD index $104.08 up $0.08,
  • Bitcoin $31,177 down $1.55

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) declined from 3.7% year-over-year to 3.2% year-over-year. This decline was a surprise to me – and was driven by a significant decline in gasoline prices. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil is down 4.1% on 30 October 2023 year-over-year. I believed oil prices would rise for the rest of the year. The decline in inflation year-over-year is positive news for the markets as THEY believe it signals the Federal Reserve that inflation is coming under control – and no further federal funds rate increases are needed.

The NFIB Optimism Index decreased 0.1 points in October 2023 to 90.7, marking the 22nd month below the 50-year average. The last time the Optimism Index was at or above the average was December 2021. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

The October data shows that small businesses are still recovering, and owners are not optimistic about better business conditions. Small business owners are not growing their inventories as labor and energy costs are not falling, making it a gloomy outlook for the remainder of the year.

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • Israel’s Natural Gas Flow To Egypt To Return To Normal Next Week
  • Aluminum Prices Struggle As Demand Dwindles
  • Russia’s Oil Export Revenue Slips In October
  • The U.S. Just Recorded Its Highest Oil Production Month In History
  • Russia Claims It Will Continue To Adapt To Oil Sanctions
  • S&P 500 notches best day since April, Dow leaps nearly 500 points on soft inflation report: Live updates
  • Cooler monthly inflation report pushes mortgage rates even lower
  • Stocks Soar, Yields And Dollar Crash As Fed’s Tightening Cycle Dies, Countdown To Cuts Begins
  • Google sends a third of Safari ad revenue to Apple

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 14, 2023

November 14, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Tue Nov 14 2023
Valid 12Z Tue Nov 14 2023 – 12Z Thu Nov 16 2023

…Cool temperatures and beneficial rains to continue to focus across
portions of the Gulf Coast states through the middle of the week…

…Very heavy rainfall and a threat of urban flash flooding will be a
concern for portions of southern Florida on Wednesday…

…Mild air will continue in place across much of the Intermountain West
and stretching east across the Plains, Midwest, and Ohio Valley this
week…

13 Nov 2023 Market Close & Major Financial Headlines: Wall Street Opened Fractionally Lower, Eventually Trading Along The Unchanged Line, Finally Closing Mixed

November 13, 2023Posted inmarketsNo Comments

Summary Of the Markets Today:

  • The Dow closed up 55 points or 0.16%,
  • Nasdaq closed down 0.22%,
  • S&P 500 closed down 0.08%, High 4,319: 4,200 = critical resistance level)
  • Gold $1,951 up $12.90,
  • WTI crude oil settled at $79 up $1.34,
  • 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.632% up 0.004 points,
  • USD Index $105.66 down $0.210,
  • Bitcoin $36,828 down $546,

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for November 2023

Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:

Fourth Quarter 2023 Survey of Professional Forecasters now shows the outlook for the U.S. economy looks somewhat better now than it did three months ago. The forecasters predict the economy will expand at an annual rate of 1.3 percent this quarter, up slightly from the prediction of 1.2 percent in the last survey. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters expect real GDP to increase 2.4 percent in 2023 and 1.7 percent in 2024. These annual projections are 0.3 and 0.4 percentage point higher than the estimates in the previous survey.

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

REAL GDP (%) UNEMPLOYMENT

RATE (%)

 PAYROLLS

(000S/MONTH)
PREVIOUS NEW PREVIOUS NEW PREVIOUS NEW
Quarterly data:
2023:Q4 1.2 1.3 3.7 3.9 103.7 148.8
2024:Q1 1.1 0.8 3.9 4.0 56.5 65.7
2024:Q2 1.0 1.3 4.0 4.0 78.0 97.9
2024:Q3 1.3 1.5 4.1 4.2 77.9 81.5
2024:Q4 N.A. 1.7 N.A. 4.2 N.A. 118.8
Annual data (projections are based on annual-average levels):
2023 2.1 2.4 3.6 3.7 288.6 296.5
2024 1.3 1.7 4.0 4.1 94.8 120.0
2025 2.1 1.8 4.2 4.2 N.A. N.A.
2026 1.7 2.1 4.1 4.0 N.A. N.A.

 

Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:

  • The Surprising Scarcity Of Suitable Sand
  • NASA’s Breakthrough In Battery Tech Paves Way For Electric Aviation
  • Chinese Bitcoin Mining Operations Raise U.S. National Security Alarm
  • Goldman Sachs Sees 31% Returns For Energy Over 12 Months
  • Baker Hughes: Geopolitical Risks Are At The Highest Since 1973 Oil Embargo
  • Moody’s warning on the massive U.S. debt burden has turned into a nonevent
  • Spot bitcoin ETF approval by the SEC is approaching, experts say. What that means for investors
  • Market Snapshot: Dow Jones edges higher as inflation data looms

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 13, 2023

November 13, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon Nov 13 2023
Valid 12Z Mon Nov 13 2023 – 12Z Wed Nov 15 2023

…Cool temperatures and beneficial rains to cross over the
drought-stricken Gulf Coast states...

…Some accumulating snow expected for the higher elevations of the
Washington Cascades and Northern Rockies over the next few days…

…Mild air expected across much of the Intermountain West and stretching
east across large areas of the Plains and Midwest…

Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted November 12, 2023

November 12, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Nov 12 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Nov 12 2023 – 12Z Tue Nov 14 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the southern
tip of Texas…

…Light snow will develop over portions of the Northern Cascades and
Northern Rockies on Sunday and Monday; light snow over Northern New
England on Monday…

…Temperatures will be 15 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the
Upper Midwest…

Finding Economic Justice

November 12, 2023Posted ineconomicsNo Comments

Locke abandoned the Doctrine of Economic Justice and replaced it with an analysis of the conditions that yield the justice of property rights. To which Marx, the Socialists, (and their predecessors) retorted: let us rather analyze the injustices of property rights. These are the contours within which the legal, social, economic, and political discourse has been carried out during the last few centuries. We might get out of this chasm, through an analysis in three parts. In Part I, we outline three fundamental mistakes in Marx’s analysis; in Part II, we analyze the existence and conditions of economic rights as generators of just property rights; in Part III, we complete the Theory of Economic Justice by adding the plank of Participative Justice to the two traditional planks of Distributive Justice and Commutative Justice.

Looking back at October for the United States November 11, 2023 – A Fairly Normal Month Except for the Mississippi River

November 11, 2023Posted inweatherNo Comments

Most of the information in this report comes from the monthly email I receive from John Bateman. He does public outreach for NOAA and in particular NCEI. I could find the same information and more on the NCEI website but John produces a good summary so I use it or most of it. I also sometimes add additional information from NCEI or other NOAA websites. John Bateman sends me two emails. One on the World situation and one for the U.S.

This article is about October 2023 in the U.S.

One of the things I like to add to what John Bateman sends me is the state ranking maps. These maps show how temperature and precipitation for each state rank relative to the 129 years of what is considered to be the most reliable data we have.

 

This is the U.S.  October temperature trend.  This past October was by no means a record but it was above the trend line. It was a relief in a way as recent months have been much above trend and record breakers so the factors that were causing that may have been short-term but in any event did not show up this October.  I am unable to compare this to the world trend as it is not yet available but will be soon.

Now I will present the information provided by John Bateman with perhaps one additional graphic also from NCEI.