Short Term and Intermediate-Term Weather Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted October 1, 2023

Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook.

We start with the U.S. Information. You can update this section here but these are 48 to 72-hour forecasts so if I have not been able to update this area twice daily, what is shown is still valid and the images in the body of the article update automatically but sometimes they are a bit slow to update.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Sun Oct 01 2023
Valid 12Z Sun Oct 01 2023 – 12Z Tue Oct 03 2023

…There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the east
coast of Florida on Sunday and over the Southern High Plains on Monday…

…There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern High Plains on Monday…

…Heavy snow over parts of the higher elevations of northeastern Utah…

 

The State of Joe Sixpack in 2Q2023: The Average Joe’s Situation Improved

Written by Steven Hansen

The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows an increase in average household net worth and an improvement in income. Our modeled “Joe Sixpack” – who owns a house and has a job, but essentially no other asset – is better off than he was last quarter.

News To Read On The Fourth of July 2023

Markets are closed today, but here are the headlines we are reading:

  • EU Climate Boss Raises Concerns Over China’s Coal Expansion
  • Saudi Arabia Sets The Stage For Big OPEC Production Cuts
  • Saudi Arabia And Iran To Jointly Exploit Oil & Gas Fields
  • China’s Bid For Energy Security Fuels Long-Term LNG Buying Spree
  • What China’s Solar Dominance Means For Global Trade
  • Canadian West Coast ports negotiation reaches impasse as port owners say ‘course change’ required
  • Britain is now the only major economy where inflation is still rising
  • Fireworks cause $59 million of property damage a year. Your insurance policy may cover it
  • El Niño has officially begun. UN says phenomenon likely to threaten lives, break temperature records
  • I spent 5 years interviewing 233 millionaires—here are 5 things they never waste money on
  • German retail sales seen falling more than expected in 2023 as inflation bites
  • Spain breaks record for international tourists in May

Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries.

Weather: Tonight, Tomorrow, Next Day, Five Days, and Intermediate-Term Outlooks for the U.S. and a Six-Day Forecast for the World: posted June 6, 2023

Updated at 3:52 p.m. Tuesday, June 6, 2023Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.

We start with the U.S. Information.

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 PM EDT Tue Jun 06 2023

Valid 00Z Wed Jun 07 2023 – 00Z Fri Jun 09 2023

...Much above average temperatures from the Northern Plains to the Pacific
Northwest while the Southwest/California and the Northeast remain below
average…

…Numerous and Widespread Air Quality Alerts from the Northeast to the
Great Lakes as well as for other urban areas in the central/eastern U.S…

…Scattered to widespread showers and storms with the risk for flash
flooding continue from the High Plains into the Intermountain West…

Adventures With 3 Coin Flips. Part 2: Connecting the Micro to the Macro

In Part 1, we saw that increasing the observation window changes the results for the occurrence of tails following heads.  That raises the question: How does the micro (small observation window) relate to the macro (large observation window)?  More specifically, what is the relationship between results from a small observation window (three flips) and those from a large observation window (100 flips)?

Adventures With 3 Coin Flips. Part 1: The Gamblers’ Paradox

Many gambling activities involve betting on events for which the outcomes obey rigid, specified odds.  When there is no mechanical bias, roulette wheels have fixed odds, including some that are binary (50:50) such as red vs. black. Betting on the flip of a coin is likewise a binary 50:50 proposition:  heads or tails.  Why is it then that there is a propensity for some gamblers to place wagers in a pattern conflicting with the known 50:50 odds?  For example, after a string of blacks on a roulette wheel, why do some gamblers keep increasing the amounts bet on red with each succeeding black?

March 2023 Economic Forecast: Data Improves But Inflation Uncertainties May Be A Monkey Wrench

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index continues to improve but remains slightly in negative territory. Interestingly, there continues to be improvement in the economic releases we view. Even industrial production and retail sales insignificantly gained. Yet, there is a potential chill in the air caused by inflation uncertainties. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.