Summary Of the Markets Today:
- The Dow closed up 87 points or 0.23%,
- Nasdaq closed down 0.33%,
- S&P 500 closed down 0.34%,
- Gold $2,332 up $25.50,
- WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $2.82,
- 10-year U.S. Treasury 4.626% down 0.058 points,
- USD index $106.11 down $0.120,
- Bitcoin $59,921 down $2,905 (4.86%)
*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.
Today’s Economic Releases Compiled by Steven Hansen, Publisher:
The first paragraph of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting statement for 01May2024 tells the story why the federal funds rate was unchanged at 5.25 to 5.50 %:
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated. In recent months, there has been a lack of further progress toward the Committee’s 2 percent inflation objective.
Interestingly, they went on to say:
The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee will slow the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion. The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
The point being is that there remains significant pressure which is currently not allowing inflation to moderate – and it will not take much for inflation to accelerate.
According to ADP, private employers added 192,000 jobs in April 2024 – blue line on the graph below. The average pace of hiring has accelerated over the last three months after slowing late last year, almost matching gains made in the first half of 2023. Pay growth continues to slow. Only the information sector — telecommunications, media, and information technology — showed weakness, posting job losses and the smallest pace of pay gains since August 2021. Before the pandemic, it was estimated that the US economy needed to add 60,000–100,000 jobs each month to keep up with population growth and retirements. However, a Brookings Institution report estimates that sustainable employment growth could be between 160,000–200,000 jobs each month. Either way, employment continues to be a bright spot in the economy.
Construction spending during March 2024 was 9.6% above March 2023. During the first three months of this year, construction spending was 10.6% above the same period in 2023. Spending on private construction was up 7.3% year-over-year whilst public construction spending was up 17.9% year-over-year. Construction is another bright spot in the economy.
The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.2 percent in April 2024, down 1.1 percentage points from the 50.3 percent recorded in March. The ISM Manufacturing PMI® (Purchasing Managers’ Index) is a key economic indicator that gauges the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. It’s published monthly by the ISM Manufacturing and Services business survey committees and is considered one of the most reliable economic barometers of the U.S. economy. Manufacturing continues its weak role in the economy.
The number of job openings changed little at 8.5 million on the last business day of March according to the JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER report (JOLTS). Over the month, the number of hires changed little at 5.5 million while the number of total separations decreased to 5.2 million. The number of job openings somewhat correlates to employment growth – and both have been slowly moderating but remain above historical levels.
Here is a summary of headlines we are reading today:
Click on the “Read More” below to access these, other headlines, and the associated news summaries moving the markets today.