macroeconomics Archives - Page 6 of 8

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 14A – Deflation

By John Lounsbury July 2, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

We have failed to find systematic relationships between consumer inflation and federal deficit spending over long time periods. This is a continuation of looking at each period of significant inflation and disinflation/deflation individually. Parts 13A¹ and 13B² analyzed the ten significant inflation periods since 1914. This is the first of two posts to analyze the eleven significant deflationary periods for the years 1914-2022.

From photo by Guillaume de Germain on Unsplash

July 2023 Economic Forecast: Our Forecast Continues To Suggest No Recession In Sight

By admin June 29, 2023economics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index improved and remains in positive territory. We do not see a recession baked in but there are now three major indicators signaling a recession Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 13B

By John Lounsbury June 25, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

This is a continuation of the analysis of each significant period of rising inflation since 1914. The first part¹ covered the years up to the start of World War II. In this post, we cover the inflationary periods following World War II through 2022.

Photo by Alexander Grey on Unsplash.

The State of Joe Sixpack in 1Q2023: The Average Joe Is Even Worse Off Than Last Quarter

By admin June 11, 2023economics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Written by Steven Hansen

The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows a decline in average household net worth and an improvement in income. Our modeled “Joe Sixpack” – who owns a house and has a job, but essentially no other asset – is worse off than he was last quarter.

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 13A

By John Lounsbury June 4, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

After failing to find systematic relationships between consumer inflation and federal deficit spending, this is the start of looking at each period of significant inflation and disinflation individually.

Photo by Jen Theodore on Unsplash

June 2023 Economic Forecast: Three Indicators Now Suggesting a Recession But The Majority Now Suggesting Slow Growth

By admin May 31, 2023economics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index was insignificantly changed but remains in positive territory. U.S. tax receipts are now suggesting a recession Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 12

By John Lounsbury May 14, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

Note: There are a number of errors in the analysis. A new article will be posted with the correct analysis. This post will remain. The reason is that this series of blog articles constitutes my “research notebook.” As anyone trained in science or engineering will tell you, a research notebook is a chronological record of work. When errors are made, they are noted but not crossed out or removed. Removing any part invalidates the research record. So Part 13 of this series will be a replacement for Part 12.

In previous posts in this series, we have looked at what can be learned by looking at the time series data for U.S. federal government spending and consumer inflation (CPI). We have failed to find systemic consistency in the correlation between these two data sets. In the most recent effort,¹ we isolated those data points belonging to periods of significant inflation and significant disinflation/deflation. Even that partitioning of the data did not yield the systemic patterns sought. This brings us to see what can be learned by studying each period of significant inflation changes individually.

From a photo by Jan Antonin Kolar on Unsplash

Money, Banking, and the Economic Process

By Carmine Gorga May 13, 2023macroeconomicsNo Comments

Surely, there is a reason why, in writing the General Theory, Keynes was in search of “a theory of output as a whole.”¹ Without it, one cannot understand money, banking, and the economic process.

Government Spending and Inflation. Part 11

By John Lounsbury May 7, 2023macroeconomics1 Comment

Note: This article was originally posted on May 7, 2023. The Analysis and Conclusion sections were completed on May 8. The final additions to the Appendix were made on May 9.

Previously,¹ encouraging results were obtained when correlation analysis was restricted to periods of significant inflation or disinflation. In this post, we examine what can be learned about the correlation between deficit spending and inflation when timeline adjustment of the data is implemented.

Credit: Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay

May 2023 Economic Forecast: Inflation Moderated Little And Fed Rate Hikes Will Slow The Economy

By admin April 28, 2023economics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index modestly improved but remains in positive territory. Are more bank failures on the horizon? Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.