October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

September 30, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved over a downwardly revised September forecast and continues in negative territory. Inflation overall remains unchanged compared to last month – a strange situation after the Federal Reserve declared progress on curtailing inflation. Currently, we do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Fed Funds Rate and Inflation. Part 1

September 22, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

Notice:  This post has incorrect calculations for changes in the Fed Funds rate.  See Fed Funds Rate and Inflation: Part 1 – Corrected.

How does CPI inflation vary as the Fed Funds rate changes? That is the next question in our investigation of possible cause-and-effect relationships for changes in inflation.


Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, Wikipedia,
Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.

The State of Joe Sixpack in 2Q2024: Most Households Are Worse Off Than They Were One Year Ago

September 15, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Written by Steven Hansen

The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows most Americans are worse off in the second quarter of 2024 than they were in the first quarter – and also are worse off than they were one year ago. This is notwithstanding that their average net worth increased from $152,985 one year ago to $163,797 in 2Q 2024.

September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

August 28, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved and is slightly in positive territory. The economy is stratified with some sectors going gangbusters, other sectors barely above recessionary levels, whilst other sectors are in recession territory. Inflation continues its snail’s pace moderation. Currently, we do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Where Does US Money Come From and Where Does It Go?

August 25, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

In the United States, money is created as credit and debt.  The US Constitution1 allows the federal government to produce money directly, but that is not how the nation has chosen to operate for most of its money.  In this post, we look at the various sources for issuing credit and debt that provide money to run the country.


From a photo by Giorgio Trovato on Unsplash.

Quantity of Money and Inflation. Part 5. Confounding for HNO and NFC Associations with CPI – Addendum

August 4, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

Last week’s results show that confounding is possible for correlations of Household and Nonprofit Organization (HNO) Credit changes and Nonfinancial Corporate (NFC) Debt changes with subsequent CPI inflation changes.1 This post adds some detail to those observations.


Image by Arvid Olson from Pixabay

August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

July 30, 2024Posted ineconomy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved and is slightly in negative territory. The economy remains very stratified where some sectors are going gangbusters, other sectors are barely above recessionary levels, whilst others are in recession territory. A new index is now indicating a recession is coming.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

Quantity of Money and Inflation. Part 4. Confounding for HNO and NFC Associations with CPI

July 28, 2024Posted inmacroeconomicsNo Comments

Previous results1 show that during a specific inflation surge, Household and Nonprofit Organization (HNO) Credit changes and Nonfinancial Corporate (NFC) Debt changes are correlated with each other and with subsequent CPI inflation changes.  In such situations, confounding of associations are possible.


Image by Alex from Pixabay.