How does CPI inflation vary as the Fed Funds rate changes? That is the next question in our investigation of possible cause-and-effect relationships for changes in inflation.
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, Wikipedia,
Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.
Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved over a downwardly revised September forecast and continues in negative territory. Inflation overall remains unchanged compared to last month – a strange situation after the Federal Reserve declared progress on curtailing inflation. Currently, we do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
Notice: This post has incorrect calculations for changes in the Fed Funds rate. See Fed Funds Rate and Inflation: Part 2 – Corrected.
This post develops 49 timeline offset tables to determine how CPI inflation varies as the Fed Funds rate changes. It examines the first application of these timeline tables.
Image by jairojehuel from Pi
Notice: This post has incorrect calculations for changes in the Fed Funds rate. See Fed Funds Rate and Inflation: Part 1 – Corrected.
How does CPI inflation vary as the Fed Funds rate changes? That is the next question in our investigation of possible cause-and-effect relationships for changes in inflation.
Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve Board Building, Wikipedia,
Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.
Written by Steven Hansen
The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows most Americans are worse off in the second quarter of 2024 than they were in the first quarter – and also are worse off than they were one year ago. This is notwithstanding that their average net worth increased from $152,985 one year ago to $163,797 in 2Q 2024.
Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved and is slightly in positive territory. The economy is stratified with some sectors going gangbusters, other sectors barely above recessionary levels, whilst other sectors are in recession territory. Inflation continues its snail’s pace moderation. Currently, we do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.
In the United States, money is created as credit and debt. The US Constitution1 allows the federal government to produce money directly, but that is not how the nation has chosen to operate for most of its money. In this post, we look at the various sources for issuing credit and debt that provide money to run the country.
From a photo by Giorgio Trovato on Unsplash.
This post ranks the associations between changes in various sources of money and subsequent CPI inflation for inflationary surges from 1952 to 2023.
Image by Gerd Altmann from Pixabay.
Last week’s results show that confounding is possible for correlations of Household and Nonprofit Organization (HNO) Credit changes and Nonfinancial Corporate (NFC) Debt changes with subsequent CPI inflation changes.1 This post adds some detail to those observations.
Image by Arvid Olson from Pixabay
Authored by Steven Hansen
EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved and is slightly in negative territory. The economy remains very stratified where some sectors are going gangbusters, other sectors are barely above recessionary levels, whilst others are in recession territory. A new index is now indicating a recession is coming. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.