The EIA Monthly Energy Review – Published November 30, 2024

November 30, 2024Posted ineconomyNo Comments

The EIA Monthly  Energy Review is long and does not change much from month to month since a lot of the information is historical.  Some running for political office might have benefited by studying the data. Here I present the graphics from just the first three chapters. It is enough to see that coal is being phased out, electricity is increasingly important and our incorporation of alternative sources of energy is slow.  I  may provide more information in a future article but this should be enough for people to decide if they want more detail on the rest of the report.

At the end of the article, I provided a link to the full Monthly Review. The EIA Monthly Energy Review is separate from its annual reporting on crude oil and natural gas reserves. My prior article on their estimates of reserves can be accessed HERE.  I think that reserves are only updated once a year.

 The numbers here might look funny until you realize that in their summary they are only reporting on petroleum consumption. I have no idea why they did this.

This is a good graphic as it shows the source of energy and where it is used and what the losses are in the transmission of electricity. It is showing the situation for the full year of 2023. Notice that in this graphic Transportation and Industrial are about equal in terms of usage.

The main takeaway here is the small role of renewables.  Also, the increasing role of natural gas is important.

This is from the 2023 EIA Annual Energy Outlook. I did not have enough time to really review this but it seems inconsistent with the data in the Monthly Report.  It is important to remember that the information in the November Monthly Report may only be current as of August as it takes the EIA a lot of time to collect and validate information. That information indicated that transportation far exceeded the industrial sector and the commercial sector used very little energy. So I will try to sort that out. For sure there is a seasonal impact with respect to transportation. It is always difficult for me to work with EIA data.
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November 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Declines – We Are Stuck With The Crappy Economy We Have Seen So Far This Year

October 31, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally declined with a downwardly revised September forecast and again returned to negative territory. Inflation overall remains unchanged compared to last two months – a strange situation after the Federal Reserve declared progress on curtailing inflation. Currently, we do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

October 2024 Economic Forecast: One More Recession Flag Removed Yet Little Headway On Inflation

September 30, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved over a downwardly revised September forecast and continues in negative territory. Inflation overall remains unchanged compared to last month – a strange situation after the Federal Reserve declared progress on curtailing inflation. Currently, we do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

The State of Joe Sixpack in 2Q2024: Most Households Are Worse Off Than They Were One Year Ago

September 15, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Written by Steven Hansen

The Federal Reserve data release (Z.1 Flow of Funds) – which provides insight into the finances of the average household – shows most Americans are worse off in the second quarter of 2024 than they were in the first quarter – and also are worse off than they were one year ago. This is notwithstanding that their average net worth increased from $152,985 one year ago to $163,797 in 2Q 2024.

The Impact of Climate Change on Work – Published on Labor Day September 2, 2024

September 2, 2024Posted inClimate, economyNo Comments

I  am not able to comment inside of the posted pages since they are images but here is a short summary of the key points.

  • Reductions in the  Demand for Labor
  • Reductions in the Demand for Labor due to Weather  Extremes.
  • Worker Absentism.
  • Declines in Productivity (heat is a major factor)
  • Impact on the self-employed.
  • Reallocation of Labor

It is a thorough report on the possible impacts but a bit short on data as to what the impacts have been but there is quite a bit of data in the report it is just not complete. It is a very interesting report to read on  Labor Day.

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EIA August Monthly Energy Report – Published on September 1, 2024

September 1, 2024Posted ineconomyNo Comments

The EIA Monthly  Energy Review is long and does not change much from month to month since a lot of the information is historical.  Here I present the graphics from just the first three chapters. It is enough to see that coal is being phased out, electricity is increasingly important and our incorporation of alternative sources of energy is slow.  I  may provide more information in a future article but this should be enough for people to decide if they want more detail on the rest of the report.

At the end of the article, I provided a link to the full Monthly Review. The EIA Monthly Energy Review is separate from its annual reporting on crude oil and natural gas reserves. My prior article on their estimates of reserves can be accessed HERE.  I think that reserves are only updated once a year.

Some will need to click on “Read More”  to access the rest of this article.

September 2024 Economic Forecast: One Recession Flag Removed With Three Remaining

August 28, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved and is slightly in positive territory. The economy is stratified with some sectors going gangbusters, other sectors barely above recessionary levels, whilst other sectors are in recession territory. Inflation continues its snail’s pace moderation. Currently, we do not forecast a recession in the near term. Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

August 2024 Economic Forecast: New Recession Flag

July 30, 2024Posted ineconomy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally improved and is slightly in negative territory. The economy remains very stratified where some sectors are going gangbusters, other sectors are barely above recessionary levels, whilst others are in recession territory. A new index is now indicating a recession is coming.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

June 2024 Economic Forecast: Our Index Marginally Weakened And There Is Another Indicator Warning Of A Recession

May 29, 2024Posted ineconomics, economy, macroeconomicsNo Comments

Authored by Steven Hansen

EconCurrent‘s Economic Index marginally declined but remained slightly in positive territory. The economy remains very stratified where some sectors are going gangbusters, other sectors are barely above recessionary levels, whilst others are in recession territory. A fourth potential major index is now likely indicating a recession is coming.  Read on to understand the currents affecting our economic growth.

EIA Provides Information on the U.S. Oil Reserves – It is looking pretty good- Posted on May 4, 2024

May 4, 2024Posted ineconomyNo Comments

EIA  the U.S. Energy Information Agency has issued their estimate of U.S. Oil and Gas Reserves in 2022. It takes them time to obtain the information by survey and validate the information. It is not simple for oil and gas operators to know what their reserves are. In this article, I present the EIA report in its entirety with two additional EIA graphics. My comments as usual are in a box.

What are reserves and what are they not? Proven (same as proved) reserves are the amount of a natural resource that can be economically extracted at current prices with existing technology Aside from the accuracy of the estimate there are three other variables in the definition that allow for future changes in the estimate of the reserves: “known”, “existing technology” and “current prices”. Usually proved reserves are an underestimate but sometimes what is considered to be a proved reserve turns out not to be as the extraction process proceeds. Estimates are usually also made for probable reserves, possible reserves, yet-to-be-discovered reserves, and total recoverable reserves. Based on my experience, proven reserves are important in investment decisions. But the other categories are also considered. What you like to see is the gross addition to proved reserves each year being equal to or larger than the withdrawals for that year. If that stops happening, it is concerning. On the other hand, If prices increase or if there is an important advancement in technology that allows more of the technically recoverable to be moved into one of the reserve categories. Sophisticated investors pay attention to the changes in the reserves. Those in the industry are mostly concerned about prices as a decline in prices caused a write-down in reserves. HERE is a good resource for mining accounting. Oil and gas should be fairly similar. My opinion is that this falls into the category of Buyer Beware.

In hard rock mining, which is my background, you prove up reserves mostly by drilling. In oil and gas, it is by drilling and pumping. IMO it is easier to determine your reserves in hard rock mining than oil and gas but they may not be more accurate.   In both sectors prices impact reserves. In oil gas, every well you drill provides information on what your reserves are. That is one reason why we look at it every year.

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