Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 72 points or 0.22%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.63%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.31%,
• Gold $1824 up $7.00,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $0.65,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.926% down 0.023 points,
• USD $104.66 down $0.56,
• Bitcoin $23,347 – 24H Change down $275.47 – Session Low $23,166

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for March 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

New orders for manufactured durable goods in January 2023, down two of the last three months, decreased to 3.0% (0.1% inflation adjusted) year-over-year growth from 11.2% (5.6% inflation adjusted) in December 2022. It appears that this decrease was caused by a significant fall in new orders for civilian aircraft. Hold on to the seat of your pants as next month’s (February 2023) civilian aircraft new orders should explode with Air India’s 210 plane order to Boeing.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) — a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings — improved 8.1% to 82.5 in January. Year-over-year, pending transactions dropped by 24.1%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001. NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

Buyers responded to better affordability from falling mortgage rates in December and January.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 337 points or 1.02%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.69%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.05%,
• Gold $1819 down $8.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $1.15,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.953% up 0.072 points,
• USD $105.23 up $0.64,
• Bitcoin $23,247 – 24H Change down $709.07 – Session Low $22,966
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -7 to 753 Canada -4 to 244

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Real disposable personal income (DPI) increased 1.4% month-over-month (up 2.8% year-over-year – red line on the graph below) and real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 1.1% month-over-month (up 2.4% year-over-year – blue line on the graph below). These are inflation-adjusted numbers. and is far from showing recessionary tendencies. However, inflation has shown little moderation (green line on the graph below) which means the Fed’s efforts to curb inflation are not having a significant effect.

Sales of new single‐family houses in January 2023 were 7.2% above the revised December rate of 625,000 but 19.4% below the January 2022 estimate of 831,000. The median sales price of new houses sold in January 2023 was $427,500. The average sales price was $474,400. Looks like a nice jump in houses sold at a lower price – but clearly the higher mortgage rates are affecting this sector.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 109 points or 0.33%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.72%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.53%,
• Gold $1830 down $11.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 up $1.52,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.879% down 0.044 points,
• USD $104.55 down $0.03,
• Bitcoin $23,938 – 24H Change up $98.41 – Session Low $23,678

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Real gross domestic product (GDP) second estimate increased at an annual rate of 2.7% in 4Q2022. In the advance estimate for 4Q2022, the increase in real GDP was 2.9%. The updated estimates primarily reflected a downward revision to consumer spending that was partly offset by an upward revision to nonresidential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up. I prefer to view Real GDP as the percent increase from the same period one year ago which shows a continued moderation – now only 0.9% year-over-year.

Led by improvements in production-related indicators, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) rose to +0.23 in January from –0.46 in December. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index made positive contributions in January, and three categories improved from December. The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3 (purple line on the graph below), moved up to –0.26 in January from –0.34 in December. The CFNAI-MA3 is used for economic forecasting and it is showing a slow growth economy but not recessionary.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 85 points or 0.26%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.13%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.16%,
• Gold $1833 down $9.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $74 down $2.47,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.923% down 0.003 points,
• USD $104.56 up $0.38,
• Bitcoin $23,815 – 24H Change down $672.88 – Session Low $23,612

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Federal Reserve issued their meeting minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee‘s meeting on January 31 through February 1, 2023. There was nothing particularly noteworthy in these minutes, Highlights include:

… Participants agreed that cumulative policy firming to date had reduced demand in the most interest-rate-sensitive sectors of the economy, particularly housing. Participants observed that growth in economic activity in 2022 had been below its longer-run trend and expected that real GDP growth would slow further in 2023. …

… In their discussion of the household sector, participants observed that real consumer spending had declined in November and December—in part reflecting the tightening in financial conditions over the past year—and anticipated that consumption would likely grow at a subdued rate in 2023. …

… Regarding the business sector, participants observed that growth in business fixed investment spending had been subdued in the fourth quarter and was being restrained by past interest rate increases. A number of participants commented that supply bottlenecks continued to ease, al­though supply chain issues remained a challenge in some sectors. …

… Participants agreed that the labor market remained very tight and assessed that labor demand substantially exceeded the supply of available workers. …

… A number of participants commented that the costs of elevated inflation are particularly high for lower-income households. Participants noted that inflation data received over the past three months showed a welcome reduction in the monthly pace of price increases but stressed that substantially more evidence of progress across a broader range of prices would be required to be confident that inflation was on a sustained downward path. …

… Participants observed that the uncertainty associated with their outlooks for economic activity, the labor market, and inflation was high. Regarding upside risks to inflation, participants cited a variety of factors, including the possibility that price pressures could prove to be more persistent than anticipated due to, for example, the labor market staying tight for longer than anticipated …

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 697 points or 2.06%,
• Nasdaq closed down 2.50%,
• S&P 500 closed down 2.00%,
• Gold $1845 down $5.50,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $0.29,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.958% up 0.013 points,
• USD $104.18 up $0.32,
• Bitcoin $24,503 – 24H Change down $276.45 – Session Low $24,331

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Existing-home sales fell for the twelfth straight month in January – slid 0.7% from December 2022 to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.00 million in January. Year-over-year, sales retreated 36.9% (down from 6.34 million in January 2022). NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun stated:

Home sales are bottoming out. Prices vary depending on a market’s affordability, with lower-priced regions witnessing modest growth and more expensive regions experiencing declines.

The January Manufacturing PMI registered 47.4%, 1 percentage point lower than the seasonally adjusted 48.4% recorded in December. Regarding the overall economy, this figure indicates a second month of contraction after a 30-month period of expansion. The Manufacturing PMI figure is the lowest since May 2020, when it registered a seasonally adjusted 43.5%. The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 42.5%.

CoreLogic’s Single-Family Rent Index (SFRI) shows rental price growth rose by 6.4% year over year in December 2022, compared with the 12.1% gain recorded in December 2021. Rental price gains have risen by about an average of $300 over the past two years.

Container exports and imports into the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach in January 2023 continued their decline with imports falling 22% year-over-year (down from -20% last month) and exports falling -6% year-over-year (down from +15% last month). Imports declines are normally a negative economic signal – but a good portion of the decline can be attributed to port congestion one year ago where a ship waited months for offloading and elevated traffic above normal. Currently, port congestion has subsided. In my estimation, the amount of traffic going through the ports is not recessionary.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

The stock markets are closed today for President’s Day but there is still news. Click on the “Read More” below to read all the headlines we are following today.

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow was closed,
• Nasdaq was closed,
• S&P 500 was closed,
• Gold $1850 up $0.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $77 up $0.79,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.817% down 0.026 points,
• USD index $103.88 up $0.02,
• Bitcoin $24,793 up $515

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

None

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 130 points or 0.39%,
• Nasdaq closed down 0.58%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.27%,
• Gold $1852 down $0.20,
• WTI crude oil settled at $76 down $2.16,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.815% down 0.028 points,
• USD $103.88 up $0.02,
• Bitcoin $24,810 – 24H Change up $279.93 – Session Low $23,451
• Baker Hughes Rig Count: U.S. -1 to 760 Canada -2 to 248

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Interesting that import and export price inflation continues to significantly decline with year-over-year growth of import prices falling to 0.8% in January 2023 (from 3.0% in December) and export prices falling to 2.3% (from 4.3% in December). Falling energy prices were the main reason for the import price decline.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 431 points or 1.26%,
• Nasdaq closed down 1.78%,
• S&P 500 closed down 1.38%,
• Gold $1847 up $1.40,
• WTI crude oil settled at $78 down $0.55,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.867% up 0.06 points,
• USD $104.03 up $0.10,
• Bitcoin $24,472 – 24H Change up $355.46 – Session Low $24,067

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Philly Fed’s Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey shows manufacturing activity in the region continued to decline. The diffusion index for current activity fell from a reading of -8.9 last month to -24.3 this month. The new orders index remained negative, and the shipments index remained positive but low. The employment index declined but remained positive, and the price indexes continued to suggest overall increases but were in line with long-run averages. Most of the survey’s future indicators were positive but low, suggesting tempered expectations for growth over the next six months.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 6.0% for the 12 months that ended January 2023 – down from 6.5% last month. In January, a 1.2% rise in prices for final-demand goods led to an advance in the final demand index. Prices for final demand services also moved higher, increasing by 0.4%. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the PPI are at nearly the same level. This data shows inflation is not going away quickly.

Privately‐owned housing units authorized by building permits in January 2023 were 27.3% below the January 2022 rate – up from -27.2% last month. Privately‐owned housing starts are 21.4% below the January 2022 rate – up from -22.5% last month. Privately‐owned housing completions are 12.8% above the January 2022 rate – up from the 5.0% last month. These improvements are considered modest, and unsure if this is the beginning of new trends.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data today issued itsQuarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit. The Report shows an increase in total household debt in the fourth quarter of 2022, increasing by $394 billion (2.4%) to $16.90 trillion. Balances now stand $2.75 trillion higher than at the end of 2019, before the pandemic recession. The report is based on data from the New York Fed’s nationally representative Consumer Credit Panel.

In the week ending February 11, 4-week moving average was 189,500, an increase of 500 from the previous week’s revised average. The previous week’s average was revised down by 250 from 189,250 to 189,000.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed up 39 points or 0.11%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.92%,
• S&P 500 closed up 0.28%,
• Gold $1847 down $18.30,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.42,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.807% up 0.046 points,
• USD $103.88 up $0.64,
• Bitcoin $24,138 – 24H Change up $1,900.83 – Session Low $22,071

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

Industrial production continued its modest moderation in January 2023 showing growth of 0.8% year-over-year (down from 1.1% last month). The index was negatively affected by the utility portion of industrial production which declined from 9.1% last month to -8.9% this month – The output of utilities fell as a swing from unseasonably cool weather in December to unseasonably warm weather in January depressed the demand for heating.

Retail and food services sales for January 2023 are up 6.4% above January 2022 (blue line on the graph below). However, after inflation adjustment (red line on the graph below), sales improved from -0.8% year-over-year to 1.1% year-over-year. Retail trade sales (without food services) were up 3.9% above last year. Food services and drinking places were up 25.2% from January 2022, while general merchandise stores were up 4.5% from last year.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey headline general business conditions index climbed twenty-seven points but remained negative at -5.8. New orders declined modestly, while shipments held steady. Delivery times shortened, and inventories edged higher. Employment levels declined for the first time since early in the pandemic, and the average workweek shortened for a third consecutive month.

A summary of headlines we are reading today:

Summary Of the Markets Today:

• The Dow closed down 157 points or 0.46%,
• Nasdaq closed up 0.57%,
• S&P 500 closed down 0.03%,
• Gold $1866 up $2.10,
• WTI crude oil settled at $79 down $0.97,
• 10-year U.S. Treasury 3.755% up 0.038 points,
• USD $103.24 down $0.10,
• Bitcoin $22,226 – 24H Change up $564.30 – Session Low $21,606

*Stock data, cryptocurrency, and commodity prices at the market closing.

Click here to read our Economic Forecast for February 2023

Today’s Economic Releases:

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) was little changed at 6.4%. The index for shelter was by far the largest contributor to the monthly all items increase, accounting for nearly half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for food, gasoline, and natural gas also contributing. The food index increased 0.5 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent. The energy index increased 2.0 percent over the month as all major energy component indexes rose over the month. The markets expected a smaller inflation number.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased 0.5 points in January to 90.3, remaining below the 49-year average of 98. Down six points from last month, 26% of owners reported inflation was their single most important problem in operating their business. Owners expecting better business conditions over the next six months improved six points from December to a net negative 45%. NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg stated:

While inflation is starting to ease for small businesses, owners remain cynical about future business conditions. Owners have a negative outlook on the small business economy but continue to try to fill open positions and return to a full staff to improve productivity.

A summary of headlines we are reading today: