It is difficult to find a more comprehensive Weather Outlook anywhere else with the ability to get a local 10-day Forecast also.
This article focuses on what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term U.S. outlooks and a six-day World weather outlook which can be very useful for travelers.
First the NWS Short Range Forecast. The afternoon NWS text update can be found here but it is unlikely to have changed very much. The images in this article automatically update.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
Mon May 06 2024
Valid 12Z Mon May 06 2024 – 12Z Wed May 08 2024…There is a Moderate Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central/Southern Plains on Monday and a Slight Risk across the Ohio Valley
on Tuesday……There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Northern High
Plains and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on Monday……Heavy snow over the higher elevations from the Pacific Northwest to the
Northern/Central Rockies…A front extending from the Northern Rockies/Northern High Plains to the
Southern Rockies will advance eastward to the Lower Great Lakes and
southwestward to the Middle Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. The deep
upper-level trough associated with the system will help produce heavy snow
over parts of the Northern/Central Rockies and the Uinta Mountains on
Monday.Moreover, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the
Pains on Monday and Tuesday. The system will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms as the boundary moves onto the Plains. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Moderate Risk (level 4/5) of severe thunderstorms over parts
of the Central/Southern Plains through Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be the
added threat of EF2 to EF5 tornadoes, severe thunderstorm wind gusts of 65
knots or greater, and hail two inches or greater over the area.Furthermore, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
parts of eastern Kansas/Nebraska, western Iowa/Missouri, and northeastern
Oklahoma as the front moves out of the Rockies onto the Plains. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Central/Southern Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley through
Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and
low-lying areas the most vulnerable.In addition, the moisture over the Northern High Plains will aid in
creating showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain over parts of eastern
Montana and northeastern Wyoming. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight
Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall over parts of the Northern High
Plains through Tuesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small
streams, and low-lying areas the most vulnerable.On Tuesday, as the cold front moves across the Ohio Valley, the boundary
will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over parts of Ohio, Indiana,
Kentucky, southeastern Illinois, southeastern Missouri, extreme
northeastern Arkansas, and a small portion of northern Tennessee.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valley and Middle/Lower Mississippi
Valley from Tuesday through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will be an additional threat of
hail two inches or greater over parts of the Ohio Valley.Further, showers and thunderstorms will develop over parts of the Ohio
Valley, the Mid-Atlantic, the Southeast, and the Central Gulf Coast on
Monday and over parts of the Northeast and Southeast on Tuesday.Meanwhile, another front onshore over the Pacific Northwest will move
eastward to the Northern Intermountain Region and into Central California
by late Monday afternoon. The northern half of the boundary will dissipate
by Tuesday morning, while the southern half moves southeastward to the
Southern Plains/Southern Rockies, linking up with the front and extending
westward over the Ohio Valley by Tuesday afternoon.On Monday, rain and higher-elevation snow will develop over the Pacific
Northwest as the system moves onshore over the Northwest. The snow will be
heavy over the Southern Cascades. Snow will also develop over parts of the
Northern Intermountain Region Monday night.On Tuesday, onshore flow will keep rain and higher-elevation snow over
parts of the Northwest. Furthermore, upper-level energy over the Northern
Rockies will aid in producing heavy snow over parts of the region.
To get your local forecast plus active alerts and warnings click HERE and enter your city, state or zip code.
Learn about wave patterns HERE.
Then, looking at the world and of course, the U.S. shows here also. Today we are looking at precipitation.
Please click on “Read More” below to access the full Daily Report issued today.
| Notices: What would you like to learn about? Please provide that to me via the comment section at the end of the article. |
Now more detail on the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. These maps update automatically. But if that does not happen, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear) (Key to surface fronts shown on maps and you will then also be able to insert a city name or zip code and get a local NWS forecast).
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
We have a new animation of the forecast which shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click ANIMATION. Doing so will get you to the dashboard. You can then step through the animation or hit LOOP on the upper right of the display. You will have to hit the back arrow ← at the top left on your computer to get back into this article. It is a little more trouble than before but I think NOAA scrapped the animation routine I was using so we have to keep up with “progress”.
The NWS Climate Prediction Center’s: Watches, Warnings, and Advisories plus other information can be found HERE. That takes you to the NWC Severe Weather Site. From there you can select among many categories of information. Remember to hit the back arrow ← at the top left of your screen to return to this article.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Ski SnowReports
New Feature – Ski Reports. It is difficult to find reports that auto-update on-screen (and they are very long) but these links will get you to them – If you have additional suggestions make them in the comments section after every Econcurrents Article and we may add those links. We will try to not have too much overlap as that can add to the confusion.
Snow Forecasts. And remember this shows natural snow. Ski resorts also make their own snow.
Day 1
Day 2
Additional snow information can be found here, here, here, and here. The second link provides animations.
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles. These links may also be useful for those viewing this article on a cell phone or other small screen.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
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10
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14 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast [that website is has been intermittent so be patient]
Below are the Day 1 -3 and 4-6 forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
World Temperature Anomalies
World Accumulated Precipitation
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
Information on Tropical Storms can be found HERE. Western Pacific information can be found HERE. Note that unless there is an out-of-season storm the below images will not update until the National Hurricane Center starts their seasonal update of these maps on June 1. I include them simply because there can be an out-of-season event in which case it should show up in these maps.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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