Updated at 8:29 p.m. Tuesday March 28, 2023
Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 357 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2023 Valid 00Z Wed Mar 29 2023 - 00Z Fri Mar 31 2023 ...Powerful storm system brings more heavy rainfall/mountain snow to the West with cooling temperatures... ...Heavy rain with the potential for flash flooding tapers off across the Southeast tonight... ...Chance for light snow across the Great Lakes, followed by a frigid airmass... ...Snow squalls possible over the Interior Northeast on Wednesday evening...
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We recently published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
A powerful Pacific storm system currently impacting much of the Pacific
Northwest and northern California, bringing in moderate to heavy rain and
heavy snow to the higher elevations. Some areas of locally heavy rain may
impact portions of the central California coast through Tuesday night.
Therefore, a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) has been issued
as terrain-enhanced rainfall will spread into the coastal ranges. This
will increase the risk for runoff into local rivers and the potential for
rapid onset flooding. Antecedent soil conditions also remain very wet
given the repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over the last few months.
Additionally, very heavy snow is forecast for higher elevations of the
northern coastal ranges and the Sierra, with storm-total snowfall likely
be upwards to 1-3 feet by late Wednesday. Winds will also remain rather
gusty Tuesday over portions of California, Nevada, southern Oregon, and
northwestern Arizona. Additional moisture spreading inland over the Great
Basin will bring moderate to locally heavy snow to the Blue Mountains of
Oregon, the Saw Tooth Range of Idaho, and higher elevations of the central
mountain ranges of Nevada. Little to no accumulating snow is expected for
lower elevation valley locations. High temperatures will continue to be
below average for much of the West Tuesday-Wednesday, with highs in the
30s and 40s for the Northern Rockies/Great Basin and the 50s for most of
California. Some high temperatures over the next few days in California
may break or tie the coldest maximum temperature for that date. Highs over
the Pacific Northwest will be closer to average for this time of year,
with much of the region’s highs in the upper 50s. Warmer air flowing
northward ahead of the approaching Pacific front will push highs into the
60s and 70s for the Southern Rockies and the 80s for portions of the
Desert Southwest Wednesday. However, a cold front will push across the
region on Thursday, cooling temperatures over Arizona and Utah
significantly. Highs will be in the mid-60’s in southern Arizona, and only
in the 30s and 40s to the north.A quasi-stationary front lingering over the Southeast is forecast to
finally progress offshore overnight Tuesday/early Wednesday morning.
However, in the short term, heavy rain and thunderstorms capable of
producing flash flooding continue across the Southeast. Anomalously high
Gulf moisture residing along and south of the front is helping to fuel
heavy rain rates of 1-2″ per hour. The quasi-stationary nature of the
front may result in overlapping storm development and motions that will
contribute to heavier rainfall totals across the region. A Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall is in effect for portions of the central Gulf Coast as
heavy rainfall from these storms overlap areas that have already seen
heavy rainfall previously, enhancing the flash flood risk. An upper-level
shortwave will help to push this front south over the Gulf overnight
Tuesday/early Wednesday morning, likely bringing an end to the showers and
thunderstorms that have plagued the region for days. A brief cooling trend
will keep high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s for much of the
Southeast before temperatures rise Wednesday into Thursday. In the
Tennessee and Ohio River Valleys, highs will be a bit cooler, with
temperatures in the upper 50s and low 60s expected. Temperatures over the
southern Plains will be similarly below average, before downsloping winds
east of the Rockies over the Southern High Plains will warm temperatures
up into the 70s on Wednesday.An upper-level shortwave and associated surface frontal system will pass
over the Great Lakes Tuesday night and move over the Interior Northeast on
Wednesday. This front is forecast to strengthen over Michigan Tuesday
evening into Wednesday, with generally light snow accumulations expected
over the Great Lakes. When this system moves into the Northeast,
atmospheric conditions may be conducive to support snow and some snow
squalls across the region, especially Wednesday afternoon and evening. The
highest chances of snow squalls are across interior Upstate New York,
Vermont, and portions of New Hampshire. Brief periods of heavy snow and
gusty winds are possible, followed by rapid drop in temperature, which may
lead to icy conditions on roadways overnight. Toward the west, a cold,
Canadian airmass will push southward into the Central Plains/Upper Midwest
Wednesday following the passage of a cold front, bringing chilly, below
freezing high temperatures. Morning lows will be frigid and well below
average for late March, with temperatures dropping below zero over
portions of northern Montana, North Dakota, and Minnesota Wednesday
morning. Further east, temperatures will be more seasonable. Highs Tuesday
and Wednesday will be in the 40s for the Lower Great Lakes/Interior
Northeast/New England and upper 50s to low 60s for the Mid-Atlantic. The
cold frontal passage Wednesday evening will result in much cooler
conditions across the Northeast, with highs in the 30s and 40s across the
region on Thursday.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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