Here is what we are paying attention to in the next 48 to 72 hours. The article also includes weather maps for longer-term outlooks and a five-day World weather forecast.
We start with the U.S. Information.
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023Valid 00Z Thu Mar 23 2023 – 00Z Sat Mar 25 2023
…Strong to severe thunderstorms will become a significant concern
beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing through Friday for portions of
the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley and the Mid-South……Widespread heavy rain and flash flooding will become increasingly
likely by Friday across portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and Ohio
Valley from numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms……Very warm temperatures will persist through the end of the week across
much of the South and the East……Unsettled weather and chilly temperatures with locally heavy mountain
snowfall to continue across the West…
| Information Note: This article is now set up so that all the maps should automatically update. The links are provided but should not be needed. The downside is that if you go back to a previous version the maps will have been updated and not be relevant to the date of the prior article but will be current information. The NWS twice-a-day 48-hour forecasts do not auto-update in this article. I do it and I can be late doing it. The link for the NWS updates is HERE. Most of our other articles will not be set up to auto-update so that prior versions of the article will be meaningful.
We also just published the NOAA Four Season Outlook. You can access it HERE. Remember the easiest way to get back to the article you were reading is to hit the return arrow in the upper left of your screen. There are other ways. Some might find the USGS ARkStorm Scenario Interesting. Click HERE to read. |
First, the 48-Hour Forecast (It is a 48 to 72 Hour Forecast actually)
Daily weather maps. I try to keep the below three maps updated. The Day 1 map updates twice a day and the Day 2 and 3 maps update only once a day. I will be doing the updating during the period described in the title of the article but if you happen to read this article later, you can get updates by clicking HERE
TODAY (or late in the day the evening/overnight map will appear)
TOMORROW
NEXT DAY
This animation shows how things may play out over the next 60 hours. To update click here.
ATMOSPHERIC RIVERS
This tells us what is approaching the West Coast. Click HERE to update If I have not gotten around to doing the update. Here is some useful information about Atmospheric Rivers.
Continuation of the NWS Short Range Forecast. It is updated by NWS twice a day and these updates can be found here. We post at least one of those updates daily, sometimes both. The Highlights are shown in the lede paragraph of this article.
While California should see a bit of a break in the very active weather
seen over the last couple of days, the weather should generally remain
unsettled across much of the West as the remnants of the most recent West
Coast atmospheric river continues to advance east and traverses the
Southwest, Great Basin and the central and southern Rockies through
tonight and Thursday. A new storm system and associated cold front will
then arrive in off the Pacific Ocean and advance into the Intermountain
Region on Friday. This will maintain a threat for locally heavy mountain
snowfall for the Great Basin and the central and southern Rockies, but the
new Pacific storm will also bring locally heavy rains to the coastal
ranges of the Pacific Northwest and heavy snowfall for the higher
elevations of the Cascades. The overall heaviest snowfall totals through
the end of week will be in the Cascades where as much as 2 to 3 feet of
snow can be expected. Additional amounts of 1 to 2 feet can be expected
elsewhere for the higher terrain of the Intermountain West. Given the
unsettled weather, abundance of clouds and additional precipitation, the
temperatures will be chilly and will be locally as much as 10 to 20
degrees below normal for daytime highs.Meanwhile, a very active weather pattern will set up for the end of the
week across portions of the Southern Plains, Lower Mississippi Valley,
Mid-South and Ohio Valley. The remnants of the storm system that hit
California and continues to traverse the Southwest will advance east on
Thursday out across the Southern Plains, and will interact with a strong
cold front draped across the region and with an abundance of moisture
surging north from the Gulf of Mexico into this front. The result will be
developing areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms initially across the
Edwards Plateau and stretching northeast into the Red River Valley of the
South by Thursday night. Some of the thunderstorms may be severe and there
will be concerns for strong, damaging winds, large hail, and a few
tornadoes. The Storm Prediction Center has depicted a Slight Risk of
severe weather across these areas. Some training of these showers and
thunderstorms may occur, and especially as the activity advances
northeastward toward across the Ozarks and parts of the Ohio Valley by
early Friday morning. As a result, the stage will become set for excessive
rainfall totals and flash flooding. For the Thursday night and early
Friday time frame, the Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall for the Ozark Plateau.The overall greatest threat of severe weather and flash flooding though
will occur during the day on Friday and into Friday night as widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity impacts the Lower Mississippi Valley,
Mid-South and Ohio Valley as surface low pressure near the Red River
Valley of the South ejects northeast and strengthens. Widespread severe
weather is anticipated with damaging winds, large hail and tornadoes
expected including some particularly strong tornadoes. In fact, the Storm
Prediction Center has depicted an Enhanced Risk of severe weather for
Friday and Friday night from northern and eastern Louisiana through
southeast Arkansas and western Mississippi. A much broader Slight Risk of
severe weather is depicted across the Lower Mississippi Valley and the
Mid-South. Meanwhile, given a significant threat of seeing multiple
training rounds of showers and thunderstorms, several inches of rainfall
will be possible, and there will be a likelihood of seeing areas of flash
flooding from portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Ohio
Valley on Friday. The Weather Prediction Center has depicted a Moderate
Risk of excessive rainfall with an emphasis on the Ohio Valley.Elsewhere across the South and many areas of the East ahead of this
developing storm and associated front, very warm temperatures will be in
place with many areas seeing daytime highs well above normal. Many areas
of the Gulf Coast, Mid-South, and Southeast will see high temperatures
well into the 80s and thus very springlike.
Below is the current five-day cumulative forecast of precipitation (Updates can be found HERE)
Now we look at Intermediate-Term “Outlook” maps for three time periods. Days 6 – 10, Days 8 – 14, and Weeks 3 and 4. An outlook differs from a forecast based on how NOAA uses these terms in that an “outlook” presents information as deviation from normal and the likelihood of these deviations.
Below are the links to obtain updates and additional information. They are particularly useful if you happen to be reading this article significantly later than when it was published. I always try to provide readers with the source of the information in my articles.
| Days 6 – 10 (shown in Row 1) | Days 8 – 14 (Shown in Row 2) | Weeks 3 and 4 (Shown in Row 3 but updates only on Fridays) |
| https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa. gov/products/predictions/610day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep .noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/ | https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/WK34/ |
Showing the actual maps. They should now update automatically. The Week 3 – 4 Outlook only updates on Fridays. So below is what I call the Intermediate-term outlook. On Fridays, it extends out 28 Days. That declines day by day so on Thursday it only looks out 22 days until the next day when the Week 3 – 4 Outlook is updated and this extends the outlook by one additional week.
| 6
– 10
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| 8
– 14 |
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| 3
– 4 |
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HAZARDS OUTLOOKS
Click here for the latest complete Day 3 -7 Hazards forecast which updates only on weekdays. Once a week probably Monday or Tuesday I will update the images. I provided the link for readers to get daily updates on weekdays. Use your own judgment to decide if you need to update these images. I update almost all the images Friday Night for the weekend edition of this Weather Report. So normally readers do not need to update these images but if the weather is changing quickly you may want to.
Month to Date Information
Temperature month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis/MonthTDeptUS.png
Precipitation month to date can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/products/maps/acis /MonthPNormUS.png
World Forecast
Below are the 5-Day forecasts for temperature and precipitation. Updates and much additional information can be obtained HERE
This information is provided by the University of Maine. They draw upon many different sources. There is a lot of information available at the link provided. I have just provided two useful forecasts. There are probably over a hundred different forecasts available from this source.
Worldwide Tropical Forecast (This is a NOAA Product)
This graphic updates on Tuesdays) If it has not been updated, you can get the update by clicking here Readers will only have to do that if they are reading this article much later than the date of it being published.
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| I hope you found this article interesting and useful. |
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